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Same here. I wondered why Chiyoda wanted a stake in it. Sugar talk?
hardwired ( Date: 03-Feb-2017 18:28) Posted:
I am frankly surprised that it has taken so long for the demise of Ezra. Two of the worst coys in the O& G sector are Ezrz and Austgroup. Both coys are horribly runned and the more contracts they win, the more they screw up and the more they lose, year after year.
For at least 5 to 6 years, UOBKH has been giving Triyards a BUY call and a target price of 80+ cents. Not once has Triyard ever meaningfully gone up in price.
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I dun think any founder or heir or family members will feel good about such a development. In fact they will feel a million times worse than investors. They will lose a lot more than investors.
But can' t deny that it appeared the company wasn' t well-run. Price kept dropping and lots of corporate actions even before oil started plunging.
sheerluck ( Date: 03-Feb-2017 17:58) Posted:
Coy die, small shareholders die. Owners and CEO well alive and kicking and singing karaoke with meimei all night.
Must be thinking, finally " lao" enough to kiao ka, smoke cigar and shiok shiok with dragon maids. Hey wait, where is my helicopter???? A, bondholder money no need to pay liao. Might as well buy one under company expenses. Heehee......
CEO said look at my name pls. " LL" . So all LL lah......
pool100 ( Date: 03-Feb-2017 17:46) Posted:
I don' t see how they can get out of this mess alive.
By next monday, their market cap would probably drop below 100m from current 141m. Their debt is still at 2.12 billion.
Creditors are starting to throw in the towel and started to sue them.
They have ceased operations and defaulted on bareboat payment obligations and debts are still rising as we speak.
They caused their white knights Chiyoda and NYK to lose more than $500m in 6 months and cause so much embarrassment for the Japanese management. Trust me, I know the Japanese - once you lose their trust, you won' t get a second chance.
Who would dare support Ezra and Lionel after he screwed Chiyoda and NYK this way?
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It was so obvious since a long time ago. Sigh.
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They already did it once. Rights issued in 2015. Dun throw any more money in.
Lepin888 ( Date: 02-Feb-2017 11:09) Posted:
| Unless Lees prepared to do massive rights...then liquidation is only route...take look at bond prices |
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Strange that your research is not based on facts but on 'I wonder this' and 'I wonder that' and they are 100% negative.
Did your research show you business renewal cost is close to nothing? Did your research show u there is extremely low probability of a rights issue - (gosh...who even suggested this)? Did your research show that as of current, TBC owns all the infrastructure in franchised area? Very one-sided research of yours. Intention is super clear.
laksaman57 ( Date: 20-Jan-2017 15:20) Posted:
| Nope, neither short or long but doing research before entry
Just sharing what i found abt aptt and give my 2￠ worth of thought
Just ignore all i said ... thks...bye |
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I do think you are one of them. Your very first few posts in Sharejunction was on negative and unsubstantiated rumours on APTT, such as rights issuance, business renewal etc.
I have to commend you as you have indeed striked fear among many here.
How many shares did you short?
laksaman57 ( Date: 20-Jan-2017 10:57) Posted:
| 😒 Wonder if shortist are the one who going to takeover |
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Better wait for trend to reverse convincingly before buying.
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Thanks for sharing and translation. Appreciate your effort.
tbird96 ( Date: 27-Dec-2016 20:30) Posted:
Good day,
My personal notes.
On the first article, key notes for me:
=> 14 banks' 热 烈 响 应 . From my previous experience with Taiwanese banks, their credit risk assessment is time consuming for prudence. Do note the credit ratings of the banks themselves.
=> Interest rate to be applied has lowered from TAIBOR + 260 basis points to TAIBOR + 230 basis points.
=> Loan is for TWD28 billion. This is to refinance TWD32 billion loan taken in June 2015, and for general working capital. 贷 款 资 金 将 用 于 TBC在 2015年 6月 签 订 的 320亿 台 币 贷 款 的 再 融 资 ， 以 及 充 作 运 营 资 金 。 I note extra TWD4 billion is not required.
=> Reason for new loan is due to change in key shareholder.
On the second article, key notes for me:
=> If NCC has set a precedence with this other (23Dec2016) case, Mr. Lu' s plans should be approved. NCC had the same concerns on the TBC takeover (source of funds) as this 23Dec2016 merger case.
=> Is the takeover negative for investors? To me, very briefly, it is positive. Even if most deem it as not, the market should have long priced in this takeover scenario.
On the third article, key notes for me:
=> Rate maintaining at TWD560. TWD570 as TBC has asked for would have been better. But NCC could have reduced the fee, based on the weak economy.
=> Subscriber based has increased consistently. At YTD30Sep2016 numbers, both Basic and Premium Digital cable TV subscribers have exceeded FY2015' s numbers. Kindly note low churn rates.
But, at the end of date, it does not matter much what we say here. Really. Lets not overanalyze.
Please note these are my personally personal perspectives (PPP). Please review all materials for your own interpretation.
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Ha Ha. Everyone can see who is the childish one here. Name calling. Cursing. Belittlling.
Dun pass on these genes to your little one. Have a blessed holiday.
earlybird14 ( Date: 27-Dec-2016 13:29) Posted:
you had done it on ThaiBev thread and other thread with your childish mindset, owl can't change eating shit habit.
Individual did own due diliegence, fail to do so, deserve to lose money.
All the best to dreamers.
pinkowl ( Date: 27-Dec-2016 13:04) Posted:
Don' t worry. We already know from your answer whether you have shorted or not.
If you want, I can bring your posts from thaibev and noble to further our discussion. But I do not want to burden the APTT readers here. So stay focused.
Feel free to share about liquidation and put APTT side by side with Swiber and the rest which have gone into JM. I will also feel free to give my opinion on your sharing.
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Don' t worry. We already know from your answer whether you have shorted or not.
If you want, I can bring your posts from thaibev and noble to further our discussion. But I do not want to burden the APTT readers here. So stay focused.
Feel free to share about liquidation and put APTT side by side with Swiber and the rest which have gone into JM. I will also feel free to give my opinion on your sharing.
earlybird14 ( Date: 27-Dec-2016 12:58) Posted:
again, my position is not important to anyone. I only contribute my view.
thaibev and noble thread is there, nothing to hide, my post is also recorded in my history. Everyone do their own due diligence including post and comments from contributors.
If you are confident with this counter, go ahead to buy, like you bought junk of noble and ThaiBev at high price, Whether I shorted or not, it is not important to anyone.
pinkowl ( Date: 27-Dec-2016 09:36) Posted:
I tried not to mention other stocks to remain neutral and objective. But since you brought it in, I will address them.
First of all, I do not and have never owned any shares in Thai Bev. But I did remember you shorting them at 0.7 or 0.8 and telling everyone how bad it was. But it then shot up to $1. When it retraced to $0.9, you complained about the financial performance again. Then it shot right back up almost touching $1. After many months, almost a quarter, the price is down due to oevrall market sentiment, you are claiming credit. LOL. Dunno send how many people to horland.
For Noble, I also remember you claimed about bankruptcy, and taunted some forumer for loading at 0.138. Almost immediately, the price shot up to 0.21. Then you dissappeared for months.
I do not wish to engage you on other counters here, just to be fair to the readers here. So pls, if you want to challenge me or anyone, focus on APTT. I am very sure you have a short position in it.
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Yes...perfectly fine to talk about the goods and bads of a stock. That' s why we like you.
APTT' s bads....inability to raise rates due to regulation, it' s high expenditure due to need to upgrade to digital, not allowing Chinese to buy the stock, unfavourable politics development, falling dividend... just to rattle off a few. So although you see me engaging in bird fight (LOL), I' m not encourgaing people to load up.
Just want to address the exaggerated fiction meant to induce fears.
jeremyow ( Date: 27-Dec-2016 09:37) Posted:
Haha! You are welcomed again pinkowl! Great observation from you that I am currently not vested in APTT. However, this does not discount whatever I shared earlier as per what you mentioned that I seek to be as objective in my assessment of a company as possible. If I discover anything bad or not so good about a company, I will also share. I believe we should be objective so that we get the best interpretation of a company (its strengths and areas of concerns as an investment candidate) which is to be as objective as possible.
And also to clarify that even if I am not vested in APTT currently, I do have an interest to study the fundamentals and follow the progress of the businesses of this Trust at the moment. It may not mean I will not consider APTT in future should I have sufficient understanding on the Trust as time passes and if it fits into my overall portfolio as a good long term investment candidate. Currently, we continue to do our due diligence work and monitor the progress of the Trust and this should be done especially even more for those who are vested in this Trust.
pinkowl ( Date: 27-Dec-2016 09:14) Posted:
The person whom you have quoted have been known to talk down a stock if he has a short position, and to talk one up if he has a long. So take it with a pinch of salt.
Better rely on someone who has an objective and neutral stance, and who is not vested, like JeremyOw.
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I tried not to mention other stocks to remain neutral and objective. But since you brought it in, I will address them.
First of all, I do not and have never owned any shares in Thai Bev. But I did remember you shorting them at 0.7 or 0.8 and telling everyone how bad it was. But it then shot up to $1. When it retraced to $0.9, you complained about the financial performance again. Then it shot right back up almost touching $1. After many months, almost a quarter, the price is down due to oevrall market sentiment, you are claiming credit. LOL. Dunno send how many people to horland.
For Noble, I also remember you claimed about bankruptcy, and taunted some forumer for loading at 0.138. Almost immediately, the price shot up to 0.21. Then you dissappeared for months.
I do not wish to engage you on other counters here, just to be fair to the readers here. So pls, if you want to challenge me or anyone, focus on APTT. I am very sure you have a short position in it.
earlybird14 ( Date: 27-Dec-2016 09:28) Posted:
i only provide my own opinion. Individual do own due diligence. Sweet toxic is still a toxic especially given from a owl who support from noble top down, ThaiBev top down.
My comments are always sharp and focus on facts and ignore of individual feeling. Who not feeling well, it is just your emotion to drive you so.
All the best dreamers.
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The person whom you have quoted have been known to talk down a stock if he has a short position, and to talk one up if he has a long. So take it with a pinch of salt.
Better rely on someone who has an objective and neutral stance, and who is not vested, like JeremyOw.
junction ( Date: 27-Dec-2016 09:09) Posted:
Of course shortists have an agenda to make money. When exposed with facts, they say don' t believe the management reports, dont believe SGX,.. but if the reports is in their favour they quote it. In this forum, it wont be easy to distinguish facts from fiction. I alredy quoted one who claims the dividend has dropped from 4.8 cts to 1.6 cts. DYODD
churnw ( Date: 26-Dec-2016 21:03) Posted:
A lot of people will try to give negative comment ....
Don't know got any agenda ...
Is it part of the Shortist who short it down .. |
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Thanks for your contribution. I like it that you stay neutral and objective and based your writing on facts. You are one of the few posts I will bother to read it line by line.
As of now, my only fears of the reason leading to current plunge are:
1) Dividend drops in coming FY
or
2) Some industry development that only insiders know as of now.
I am not so concerned over their ability to survive or their need to issue rights, because I' ve read through their financial statements, and understand they have successfully refinanced at a good rate. So yeah, that' s my thoughts. Hopefully, it' s just the opportunistic shortists at work. I will monitor further before making any actions.
jeremyow ( Date: 26-Dec-2016 23:09) Posted:
The below is taken from Asian Pay TV Trust' s FY2015 annual report presentation. Let' s see clues to how this management of the Trust is like. Firstly, they recognised that they need to focus on driving growth in cash flows and they have certain strategies in place to work towards that.
Next, they recognised that the total revenue for full year 2016 has different factors affecting it and they also came out clean with it to their unitholders. No beating about the bush here. They also expected overall EBITDA for full year 2016 to be marginally lower than 2015. This is what I call honest reporting. Let us watch out on their upcoming full year 2016 EBITDA to see whether the management had in last year a good gauge or not on estimating their forward EBITDA for this year 2016.
They are currently experiencing higher capital expenditure on network expansion and their Premium digital cable TV. All these higher capex should end by 2017 as what they reported. So we expect next year' s cash flows to continue to be tight for them. This higher capex which will definitely impact their cash flows to a certain extent is more or less expected here. No need to overthink too much here. Sure will impact cash flows.
They distribution guidance of 6.5 to 7.0 cents is still fulfilled assuming the 4Q reported dividends payout is as what they expected at 1.625 cents which makes full year 2016 distribution per unit at 6.5 cents. This is in line with what they has already guided end of last year 2015. So, they make good their promise or rather they make an effort to do so.
I am not trying to talk up the Trust but to present certain findings for a more objective look at their current situation. From their presentation end of last year, at least I can size up some clues that this management could be an honest one in the way they come clean with their unitholders (no unexpected surprises from management for their unitholders) and they make an effort to fulfill what they have guided in their distribution for this year 2016. In conclusion, I leave it to the reader to form your own independent opinions.
jeremyow ( Date: 26-Dec-2016 22:53) Posted:
Stable TBC business positioned to be more robust in the future
&ndash The focus in 2016 remains on driving growth in cash flows through up-selling and cross-selling of services across TBC&rsquo s subscriber base and progressing the network and operational expansion in greater Taichung region
&ndash Total revenue for the full year 2016 is anticipated to be influenced by a number of factors including the continued weakness in Taiwanese economy, marginally lower Basic cable TV rates and the non-recurrence of revenue generated in 2015
&ndash Overall EBITDA for the full year 2016 is expected to be marginally lower than 2015
&ndash Accelerated capital expenditure driven by Premium digital cable TV
&ndash APTT distribution of 2.25 cents per unit will be paid on 24 March 2016
&ndash APTT distribution guidance of 6.5 to 7.0 cents per unit for the full year ending 31 December 2016, subject to no material changes in planning assumptions including for asset performance and refinancing
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Don' t worry. We understand your point here. Thought it was very clear and straight forward. Was surprised it was misunderstood. LOL.
jeremyow ( Date: 26-Dec-2016 23:48) Posted:
Haha! I think you got me wrong here. I am not implying we trust a management' s words blindy. What I have shared here is just my limited observations on what the Trust management has shared end of last year and I am trying to see clues on whether the management is an honest and diligent one which knows what it is doing given a time period of this full year to check and verified what they have presented last year. Apparently, they come across as an honest and diligent one based on my limited observations. Quality of a management is important to look out for investors, whether one is value or non-value investors. If management is no good, whether one practises value or non-value investing, sooner or later the bad and lousy managment is going to make a mess of the business. Just to reiterate that I am not advocating believing management blindly here.
earlybird14 ( Date: 26-Dec-2016 23:26) Posted:
Again, better refer to last quarter result and coming quarter result before committing. None of the trusty management will be responsible with what they said in the report, so far none of the management from RMT, Swiber and penny stocks which were liquidated were sent to jailed.
This is quite weird to trust someone you don't know but based on a report which 100% have to be positive and not to create panic to market.
As a value investors we should do our due diligence and be sensitive on the result and ensure the sustainability of the company. Now sgx want every investors to be responsible with their own decision rather than the top management of the company who earn million to be responsible to the minor shareholders.
First thing need to do is stop believing these report and words from management, since we are responsible with our decision, so every decision made shall be from own due diligent rather rely on them |
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How much have you shorted?
Market is honest? Thought market is emotional and can get over-pessimistic and over-optimistic? Otherwise, how does value investing work?
Which part of APTT' s financial statement and fundamental suggested they would likely issue rights or is prone to liquidation? Would love to see your fundamental analysis. Thank you.
earlybird14 ( Date: 25-Dec-2016 19:18) Posted:
Price won't tank for no reason. Too many default and right issue since 2015, market bull run since 2005 till 2015, 10 years, in this 10 years, bonds, notes debts flying everywhere due to low interest rate and easily attract people parking money on higher interest bond and note, after 2015, interest rate hike is surfaced, due to U.S. election, the rate hike delay 1 year till 2017, at the same times, notes and bonds are seeking for refinancing, some forced to issue right to raise cash to reduce gear ratio in order to obtain refinancing, for those fail to raise cash through right, market lose confidence completely and result liquidation.
Worse to come in 2017 to 2018, bad trust default, healthy trust will fall 30-50%, due to higher borrowing cost which reduce dividend pay out.
Do own due diligence, self painting nice picture to convince your own is meaningless. Stock price up with reason down with reason, market is honest and seldom do wrong.
Merc85 ( Date: 25-Dec-2016 18:51) Posted:
There is no any negative news for APPT but the share price has tank like no tomorrow.
Mr Market may be passimistic due to high leverage and interest rate hike. But from cash-flow perspective, the trust is still OK.
The Short Sell is about 25~50% of total volume for last couple of weeks. Some big boy may take this opportunity to short the stock and flush out the weak retail investors?
From APPT Q3 report:
The Group believes that it has adequate working capital for its present requirements and that its existing debt facilities, together with cash and cash equivalents, will provide sufficient funds to satisfy its working capital requirements and anticipated capital expenditures and other payment obligations for the next 12 months, after taking into consideration the following factors:
&bull The Group has five cable TV system operators, with their nine-year cable TV licences renewed in either 2008 or 2009, that serve approximately 761,000 cable TV subscribers as at 30 September 2016, with more than 100 channels of local and international content on its analogue and digital cable TV platforms in Taiwan. Hence, it is expected that the Group&rsquo s core business, i.e. cable TV system operators and their related businesses, will continue generating sufficient and stable cash inflows. This is consistent with the positive operating cash flows generated by the Group of $125.6 million for the nine months ended 30 September 2016 (year ended 31 December 2015: $168.5 million).
&bull In view of the steady operating cash flows generated, good credibility over the past years and full compliance with the requirements as stipulated in the debt facilities, the Trustee-Manager is confident it can refinance such debt facilities when required.
&bull The Trustee-Manager has carefully monitored and managed its cash flows. Management and operation reports are prepared and reviewed on a monthly basis and cash flow forecasts are prepared on a quarterly basis to project cash flow requirements of the Group using various general and operational assumptions.
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Not sure if the latest short selling was triggered by politics. So far no news have been released by company....but price kept plunging.
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Dun think this can be easily privatised. That private company who wanted to buy macquarie was questioned by taiwan's authority.
GuavaXF30 ( Date: 23-Dec-2016 12:40) Posted:
This people anyhow short. Don' t know how to die. Wait Temasek get angry and do privatisation...... haha.
pinkowl ( Date: 23-Dec-2016 12:32) Posted:
| Yes. This has been substantially shorted. Let the selling subside first before loading up |
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Yes. This has been substantially shorted. Let the selling subside first before loading up.
mistiq88 ( Date: 23-Dec-2016 12:09) Posted:
Every day this stock kena short, can see from SGX short report.
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Dump and pump. This counter heavily shorted past few days. Hope they' ll quickly cover, and take the money to buy turkey.
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