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Latest Posts By EZ3626 - Veteran      About EZ3626
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11-Jun-2014 07:59 China Fishery   /   China Fishery - Low PE       Go to Message
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It is a fact, how modern technology has changed and improved our lives.

Just one of the many examples, tracking of the bus through the smart phones. Yes, definitely, Today' s Technology helps to locate the fish whereabout.

2010 El Nino is MILDER compared to 1998 El Nino. Modern Technology has help them to fish and not guessing where to fish. Enjoy wink 

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To summaries,  you are of the opinion that  16 years ago,  they did not have the   technology to  locate the resources

 
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11-Jun-2014 07:45 China Fishery   /   China Fishery - Low PE       Go to Message
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As you said " This 2010 El Nino is MILDER compared to 1998 El Nino" . Exactly, with the help of Technology, man is better able to understand what causes the fish to disappear NOT destroy. They are able to located their whereabout through modern advanced Technology.

During this 16 years, man has discovered the effect of current that affected the fish stock migration which is El Nino.

One simple fact, today commuters are able to track when a bus is approaching. 16 years ago, you just got to wait until the bus arrives. 

It was reported, SNP chairwoman Elena Conterno " The impact of the regulation put in place is too hard .... " because the fish has migrated further south which is outside the limit set for them to catch.

Don' t over emphasize the effect of El Nino.

But SNP chairwoman Elena Conterno said the global warming was increasing temperatures of the Peruvian waters and pushing the resource to the south, further from the limits envisaged by the law.

" It is crucial that the legislation is updated as soon as possible, because otherwise our industry will  suffer a severe contraction  for sure," Conterno warned.

Conterno said " The season is fair" not disastrous. It is about the " regulation" . Relax and enjoy fishing

stockpicker      ( Date: 11-Jun-2014 01:28) Posted:



Sorry,  the last post was not complete..

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To summaries,  you are of the opinion that  16 years ago,  they did not have the   technology to  locate the resources and therefore,  they could not  handle the serious El-Nino in 1997/98.  As from dun know when,  they have acquired the technology to locate the resources and now,  they are   able to control the fish catch more effectively to achieve substanability and therefore, you are optimistic  and advise us not to worry about the coming El-Nino

However,  that technology you were talking about was not mentioned or found anywhere in articles recently talking about the serious effect of El-Nino   for example,   this article that said Peru&rsquo s fishmeal sector will be at risk due to  strong 2014 El-Nino

http://www.undercurrentnews.com/2014/04/01/perus-anchovy-fishmeal-sector-set-for-strong-el-nino-effect-in-2014-expert-says/

Lets not take too far.  In 2010,  there was an El-Nino in January as well as an La-Nina in December. Copeinca&rsquo s fish catch was reduced by 40% that year.  This 2010 El-Nino is milder compared to 1998 El-Nino

http://hugin.info/137275/R/1492358/428115.pdf

I am quite sure the technology you have been talking about must have been in place as it is only 4 years ago and yet it so affected the fish catch.

I read somewhere the Peru&rsquo s quota and the control of fish catch are not there to overcome the effects of El-Nino or to minimise losses of the fishermen but it is there more to ensure recovery of   Anchovies after the El-Nino.

http://oceanworld.tamu.edu/students/fisheries/fisheries2.htm

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10-Jun-2014 22:10 China Fishery   /   China Fishery - Low PE       Go to Message
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Leongsan, certainly not " Blind Faith" .

How they know where the resource is located ? Advanced Technology. 16 years ago, they would not be able to know. Now they know what affect the fish in the Ocean - El Nino. It is what we don' t know that we are worried. When you know there is HOPE.

Did they say the anchovies are destroyed by El Nino ? No, they are living things and they move  wink

Anyway market will decide when it will move up. 

The substantial reduction in anchovy catch has led the  National Fisheries Society(SNP) to request an ' urgent action' to allow fishing from mile 5, where the resource is located.

The exceptional request is due to the fact that the Supreme Decree Nº 005 of the Ministry of Production  (PRODUCE) provides that anchovy can only be caught for direct human consumption (DHC) within the first 10 miles from the sea.

" We need an emergency measure, and the decision that in the future it is possible to catch the species between the mile 5 and 10, where the anchovy is because, otherwise, the fishing activity will shrink," argued Elena Conterno, SNP president.

SNP president predicted that in the eight and a half weeks remaining until the season closes it will be possible to capture more than 949,000 tonnes, which would complete about 62 per cent of the quota.

" Our projection is to reach at least 1.5 million metric tons of catch, which is much less than the quota, so the season will be fair," she said.

The season is FAIR. 

stockpicker      ( Date: 10-Jun-2014 20:20) Posted:



 

So are you going to advise what should be brought up for discussion in this forum and what should not   in the name of today' s advancement in the   Technology and Science.  Lets heard from your valued contribution so that we can all benefit from your wisdom and start buying up CF tomorrow...

 

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Rate This Post:   Useful To Me    Not Useful To Me 
EZ3626
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10-Jun-2014 14:51         About EZ3626         Contact           Quote!              
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Alert Admin
.....
Technology and science is so advance now. It is so wrong to bring those data to confuse others

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10-Jun-2014 14:51 China Fishery   /   China Fishery - Low PE       Go to Message
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J213, you are quite merciful and gracious.

1998 to 2014, the gap is 16 years. Tremendous great difference, I am not sure internet is around then. We probably won' t be blogging here. Iphone, Samsung ... not even in the market. Hehe

Technology and science is so advance now. It is so wrong to bring those data to confuse others

 

JMS213      ( Date: 10-Jun-2014 10:09) Posted:



When someone quoted " YEAR 1998 which is the year that El-Nino was most severe" The person has left out other surrounding facts.

Let me point out some : 

We are in YEAR 2014. There is a gap of 6 years. Technology has changed tremendously. Then 1998 and now 2014, can someone tell us. what version is now for Iphone, Samsung or whatever ?

How has the economy of Peru change during this 6 years ? 

Just this 2 so the soft facts are missing. Why are they kept away ?

We know liquidity of the company is improving and they have consolidated their position. Equilibrium is positive

 

JMS213      ( Date: 10-Jun-2014 09:40) Posted:



Cars are made with a windscreen wide and clear so we can look into the future ahead of us and a rear mirror small but big enough to guide our direction when we filter.

When we have someone who have the reverse, windscreen small and a huge rear mirror, you know that person is bringing everyone on board, heading into a collison. 

My prayer is that they will not end in a collision but move where the future (Equilibrium) is. You still have time to change gear. 

Never did they said they will not achieve their catch for the season. Quote what T2 said " Peru is an emerging, market oriented  economy characterized by a high level of foreign trade. Peruvian economic performance has been tied to exports and one of their main export is fishmeal." Do you think they will let the industry suffer and affect Peru' s economy ?

The fish did not disappear, they move south.

All indicators are still green. Be patience and enjoy


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09-Jun-2014 00:03 China Fishery   /   China Fishery - Low PE       Go to Message
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You guys just all out to confuse others. China Fishery is not a S-chip company. Good night  

flyfox      ( Date: 31-May-2014 09:29) Posted:



Just to clarify, China Fishery is not an S-chip although it has the word ' China' .

It is a HK based company.

divads      ( Date: 31-May-2014 08:41) Posted:



strange.. u trade shares.. u buying china fishery which I am eyeing too. I know china fishery is high risk as it is a s-chip. With what is happening to YZJ, this one is now even higher risk, but i find it strange u dun expect high returns from CPF... at least for china fishery i can sell it anytime i want. For example, I can sell it now with the YZJ scandal. But CPF u cannot take out, isn' t it even higher risk?

U go to a bank and put a 30 years fixed deposit which DOES NOT allow u to terminal before maturity. Do u accept 2.5 % for ur 30 years fixed deposit? What is the reasonable interest rate u think shd be for a 30 years fixed deposit which u are forced in black and white contract that u cannot withdraw before 30 years is up.?


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04-Jun-2014 21:55 China Fishery   /   China Fishery - Low PE       Go to Message
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明 明 鱼 儿 要 上 钩 ; 但 是 让 你 给 吓 跑

Enjoy fishing. Relax .....

JMS213      ( Date: 04-Jun-2014 21:13) Posted:



Isolator is hoping and praying. Has never seen facts or basis posted.

Things are taking shape, just be patience. Equilibrium is still positive.

Enjoy .... woah woah

 

Stockguru17      ( Date: 31-May-2014 12:40) Posted:



UOBKH

China Fishery Group (CFG SP,
B0Z)
Technical BUY with +17.9% potential return
Last price: S$0.39
BUY with a target price of S$0.46 as the stock
has broken out of its downward sloping
trendline with comparatively higher volume
with its 21-day Stochastics indicator moving
out of its oversold region and MACD indicator
forming a bullish crossover. Watch to see if the
stock price could test its 360-day EMA, which
acted as resistance before. Protective stops
could be placed at S$0.37.

 

- Newcastle - (From)
TPG GURU!


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14-May-2014 18:21 China Fishery   /   China Fishery - Low PE       Go to Message
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S69, you posted " Moody' s applauds China Fishery makeover from pollock supplier to fishmeal co., affirms credit rating"  

What is happening ? Moody rates China Fishery' s outlook stable.
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13-May-2014 18:15 China Fishery   /   China Fishery - Low PE       Go to Message
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Moody' s: China Fishery' s 1H2014 results and completed refinancing support its B2 ratings


13 May 2014

Hong Kong,  May 13, 2014  -- Moody' s Investors Service says  China Fishery Group Limited' s  1H2014 results are in line with Moody' s expectations and support its B2 corporate family and senior unsecured bond ratings.

Furthermore, its completion of the refinancing of its acquisition loans for and its privatization of  Copeinca ASA  are facilitating the consolidation of its fishmeal businesses in  Peru.

The ratings outlook remains stable.

" China Fishery' s  revenue growth of 20.1% year-on-year in 1H 2014 is the result of changes to its business model," says  Lina Choi, a Moody' s Vice President and Senior Analyst.

China Fishery  reported a 540% y-o-y increase in revenue from its Peruvian fishmeal businesses to  $203.5 million, reflecting the consolidation of  Copeinca ASA  bought in  August 2013, higher fishmeal production, and lower average selling prices.

Moody' s considers that the positive result indicates that  Copeinca ASA' operations have remained stable after its acquisition by  China Fishery.

At the same time, the company suffered a 53% decline in revenue from its Russian supply business to  $105.3 million, reflecting the decision to exit this business.

Moody' s expects this trend of decline will continue as the company completely exits the business, which involves it purchasing Alaskan Pollock from Russian fishing companies.

Moody' s expects the fishmeal operation will eventually replace the Russian contract supply business to become the core business of  China Fishery.

By end-2014, the fishmeal business will represent more than 65% of the company' s total revenue, and the Russian contract supply business' contribution will decline to 32%.

" China Fishery  has stabilized its funding as it has completed bank borrowings to refinance its acquisition loans and to offer a redemption of Copeinca' s  senior notes," says Choi who is the Lead Analyst for  China Fishery.

Moody' s sees this as a significant step towards preparing for the consolidation of the company' s fishmeal businesses and for taking further action to improve the efficiency of its facilities in  Peru.

" Moody' s expects  China Fishery' s  credit metrics will stabilize at levels appropriate for its B2 ratings, in view of its eventual withdrawal from the Russian supply business and the debt incurred for its acquisition of  Copeinca," says Choi.

China Fishery' s  adjusted EBITDA margin declined to 44.4% for the 12 months to  March 2014  from 46.2% in 2013. The profitable Russian contract supply business, which has an EBITDA margin of 45% versus 35% for fishmeal, is now -- as indicated -- a smaller revenue contributor.

But its EBITDA remained at a stable level of  $271 million  for the 12 months to  March 2014  versus  $256 million  for 2013.

The company' s Adjusted debt/EBITDA ratio was stable at 4.6x for the 12 months to  March 2014  versus 4.7x for 2013. However, its EBITDA interest coverage dropped to 3.9x from 5.1x six months ago due to the increased financing costs for  Copeinca' s  senior notes and new term loans.

Moody' s expects  China Fishery' s  credit metrics -- debt/EBITDA of 4.5x-5x and EBITDA/interest of 3x-3.5x -- in the next 12-18 months will continue to support its B2 rating level.

China Fishery' s  liquidity position remains adequate. As of  March 28  2014, it had  $51 million  in cash. Moody' s expects more cash will be received in coming months as the company traditionally releases inventories and receivables after its fishing season which ends in January.

Moreover, China Fishery  expects to receive  $80 million  from its Russian suppliers in 3Q 2014, which will help it redeem the outstanding senior notes of  Copeinca  and repay its short-term debt.

The principal methodology used in these ratings was the Global Protein and Agriculture Industry published in  May 2013. Please see the Credit Policy page on www.moodys.com for a copy of this methodology.

China Fishery Group Ltd  is headquartered in  Hong Kong  and listed in Singapore. It is engaged in three business segments: (1) the Contract Supply Business of  Alaska  pollock -- a species of cod -- in  Russia' s  northern Pacific area, through agreements with suppliers (2) the production of Peruvian fishmeal and fish oil, and (3) fishing fleet operations.  China Fishery  is 46.5% effectively owned by the  Pacific Andes group, through  Pacific Andes International Holdings Ltd  (PAIH), a  Hong Kong-listed integrated fish and seafood products processor.  The Carlyle Group, a global alternative asset management firm, holds an 11.1% stake in the company.
 
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11-May-2014 08:37 Wee Hur   /   Wee Hur       Go to Message
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Global economic outlook is brighter and tipped to boost corporate earnings. Stocks offer better return than fixed income assets. Interest rates and bonds will continue to remain low for now. Agreed with you now till July could be a time to accumulate for the next move. Afterall the Fed' s bond-buying programme is expected to end in October this year. The interest is likely to stay low until mid 2015 ....

 
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09-May-2014 08:40 China Fishery   /   China Fishery - Low PE       Go to Message
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S69, is correct there is different in Organic and Aquaculture fish ... Enjoy reading while you wait and be comfortable  laugh

Government Warns Fish Farmers About Antibiotic Use  08 May 2014

PHILIPPINES - The Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources (BFAR) has warned fish cage and fish pond operators against feeding fish stocks with antibiotics to hasten their growth.


Dr Evelyn C. Ame, Chief of the Fisheries Resources Management Division revealed that there were fish farmers particularly in Buguey town using antibiotics as fish growth booster.

The use of antibiotics, according to Ame, poses danger to humans who consume the fish because it remains in the system of the fish.

" As consumers, we are at risk because based on conducted studies, antibiotics is cancer-causing agent," Ame bared.

She likewise advised fish cages and fishpond operators to observe proper stocking and feeding and should clean net cages after harvest.

To intensify the campaign, BFAR is set to conduct training on Good Aquaculture Practices to fish farmers as part of this year' s Farmers and Fisherfolk Month celebration. 

 
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08-May-2014 21:56 China Fishery   /   China Fishery - Low PE       Go to Message
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Happy reading while waiting .... 

Commercial deep-sea fishing off of Peru' s coastal belt of over 3,000 km (1,860 mi), is a major enterprise. Peruvian waters normally abound with marketable fish: bonito, mackerel, drum, sea bass, tuna, swordfish, anchoveta, herring, shad, skipjack, yellowfin, pompano, and shark. More than 50  species  are caught commercially. There are over 40 fishing ports on the Peruvian coast,  Paita  and  Callao  being the most important centers.

The Peruvian fishing industry, primarily based on the export of fish meal, used in poultry feed, is among the largest in the world. Peru' s fishing sector led the world during the mid-1960s, although production since then has fluctuated radically. In the 1970s,  overfishing  nearly lead to the disappearance of the anchovy resource. The fish meal and fish-processing industry is managed by Pescaperú , which was founded in 1973.

The key to Peru' s fishing industry in any given year is the presence or absence of El Niñ o this warm ocean current displaces the normally cool waters deep in the Pacific, thereby killing the microorganisms upon which other marine life depends. The recurrence of El Niñ o causes the disappearance of anchoveta and a sharp fall in the catch of other species. The average annual catch during 1991&ndash 2000 was 8,515,000 tons. The total catch in 2000 was 10,658,620 tons, second highest in the world after China. That total included 9,575,717 tons of anchoveta, 226,294 tons of South American pilchard, and 296,579 tons of Chilean jack mackerel. Exports of fish products in 2000 amounted to $1.13 billion.

To suppress invasion of their rich fishing grounds by foreign powers, Peru made formal agreements with Chile and  Ecuador  to extend the rights to their  coastal waters  out to 200 nautical mi.  Violations  of the proclaimed  sovereignty  by Argentine and US fishing fleets in 1952 and 1954 gave rise to shooting incidents. Since then, US  fishing boats  have occasionally been  seized  and fined or required to purchase fishing licenses after eight US tuna boats were taken in November 1979, the United States retaliated by imposing a temporary embargo on Peruvian tuna.


 
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08-May-2014 18:57 China Fishery   /   China Fishery - Low PE       Go to Message
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I' m sure wild fish is going to be a luxury commodity, undeniable the  future or prospect looks good .....  but 20 years is kind of long to wait. 

The feeling I get is  万 事 俱 备 只 欠 东 风 , .... I' m sure when the last piece of the puzzle is in, this BB is going to fly.

Enjoy fishing  wink  might as well. Cheers ... weekends is near
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07-May-2014 21:42 Wee Hur   /   Wee Hur       Go to Message
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Look interesting, 52 weeks low is at $0.315 . With Singapore evolving in term of landscape for the population increase .... can consider 
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29-Apr-2014 11:01 China Fishery   /   China Fishery - Low PE       Go to Message
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Aquaculture farm is increasing output to replace the shortfall but not all fish can be farmed. Majority of tuna is caught wild ... " Is like Organic versus Genetic Modified One"

There are two types of fish production: " capture" (or wild) and " aquaculture" (or farmed).  " Fish are getting more expensive, but they do not all move at the same speed" which means the price of wild will be more expensive.

One need not increase the catch, for the same quantity of fish the profits is much more with the increase in price .....  

Imagine " In 20 years' time people will think of wild fish like we now think of venison."   China Fishery will still be the darling of S-chip   wink
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29-Apr-2014 10:15 China Fishery   /   China Fishery - Low PE       Go to Message
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  This article starts by saying " It is a good time to be a fisherman." and the title " Fish are getting more expensive, but they do not all move at the same speed"  

Frank Asche of the University of Stavanger, who helped to devise the FAO fish-price index, sees parallels with the divergence between farmed meat and wild game.  As the supply of wild fish declines relative to farmed fish, it will become a luxury commodity, he explains. " In 20 years' time people will think of wild fish like we now think of venison."

  Suppliers of wild fish, for their part, must slither into niche markets.

Stockpicker " The message is not about El Nino or the quota ..... " , rather how high is the  price of fish going to be sold. 

In the past, fisherman is not encourage but now " It is a good time to be a fisherman" .   Haha ... things change

SLPY69      ( Date: 16-Apr-2014 18:51) Posted:



Lucky168, you are right ... good biz, the price of fish are getting more expensive.

" As the supply of wild fish declines relative to farmed fish, it will become a luxury commodity, he explains. " In 20 years' time people will think of wild fish like we now think of venison."

Different scales

Fish are getting more expensive, but they do not all move at the same speed



Aug 10th 2013  |  From the print edition
  • Timekeeper
  •  
  •  
Upwardly mobile


IT IS a good time to be a fisherman. The global fish-price index of the UN&rsquo s Food and Agricultural Organisation (FAO) hit a record high in May. Changing consumer diets, particularly in China, explain much of the sustained upward movement. High oil prices, which increase the cost of fishing and transportation, also add to the price of putting fish on the table.

Not all fish are created equal, however. There are two types of fish production: " capture" (or wild) and " aquaculture" (or farmed). And they seem to be on different trajectories. Fish such as tuna, the majority of which is caught wild, saw much bigger price increases than salmon, which are easier to farm. Overall, the FAO' s price index for wild fish nearly doubled between 1990 and 2012, whereas the one for farmed fish rose by only a fifth. What explains this big difference ?
The amount of wild fish captured globally has barely changed in the past two decades. The ceiling, of about 90m tonnes a year, seems to have been reached at the end of the 1980s. Overfishing is one reason, as is the limited room for productivity growth, particularly if consumers want high quality.


Patrice Guillotreau of the University of Nantes tells the story of a fleet in France that decided to trawl, rather than line-catch, its tuna. It brought more back to shore, but the fish were damaged. It could not be sold as high-value fillets and was only good for canning. The old ways of catching fish are still best if you want the highest profits, says Mr Guillotreau.

In contrast, the farmed-fish industry continues to make productivity improvements. Fish farms have found crafty ways to use lower quantities of fishmeal as feed. In the early days of aquaculture, it could take up to ten pounds of wild fish to produce one pound of salmon. Now the number is down to five. That may still be an inefficient use of protein, but the ratio is set to improve further. Fish farms have also become more energy-efficient, meaning that they are less affected by higher energy prices. And they have learned how to handle diseases better, reducing the quantity of fish that ends up being unsellable.


As a result of all these improvements, the global production of farmed fish, measured in tonnes, now exceeds the production of beef (see chart). Output is likely to continue growing: the FAO estimates that by 2020 it will reach six times its 1990 level.

This growth will further shake up the markets for fish. The farmed kind is expected to dominate the market for medium-value produce. Suppliers of wild fish, for their part, must slither into niche markets. At the low-value end wild sardine is a crucial input for farmed fish and is in abundant supply. More than a third of the total marine catch in 2010 was used for the production of fishmeal and fish oil.

But more money may be made serving the captains of industry rather than industry itself. Sapmer, a French fishing company, recently discontinued its canned-tuna production, instead concentrating on catching tuna for sushi and sashimi for the top end of the market.

Frank Asche of the University of Stavanger, who helped to devise the FAO fish-price index, sees parallels with the divergence between farmed meat and wild game. As the supply of wild fish declines relative to farmed fish, it will become a luxury commodity, he explains. " In 20 years' time people will think of wild fish like we now think of venison."


 

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28-Apr-2014 12:28 China Fishery   /   China Fishery - Low PE       Go to Message
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Stockpicker, once again thanks for the statistic and graph. Everything is good except the figure for Aquaculture ... how they get 83.732 (1,000 tonnes) ???

This figure happened to be in 2011, we have seen report that the demand for fish is China and around the globe has increased over the years ..... there is a limit as to how far Chinese can increase or expand their farms and not forget the Diaoyu / Senkaku islands dispute (NOT RESOLVED YET). That' s why so many funds are wanting fishing companies in Peru ???

Anyway as mentioned " The fishing situation in Peru will be clearer in the next few days .... "   Guess it is all about the price ..... 
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27-Apr-2014 07:24 China Fishery   /   China Fishery - Low PE       Go to Message
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Stockpicker, thanks for the report. It said " 2010 was a very special year, during which both moderate " El Niño" event and " La Niña" occurred, reducing quotas and catch by almost half the volumes of a normal year. Despite that, cash flow generation was strong."

Since this 2010 happening, Peru Production Ministry is watchful and mindful of it. They have brought forward the date of first fishing season to 23 April which is 3 weeks ahead. 

The fishing companies are also more prepared and have better understanding of the effect. They are confidence of bringing the catch 2.5m tons quota.

" The fishing situation in Peru will be clearer in the next few days .... " as reported. 

 

SLPY69      ( Date: 25-Apr-2014 14:10) Posted:



Peru' s Production Ministry has done well by allowing early start for the fishing season with an increase in  fish quota to 2.5m tons.  &ldquo The fishing season will take place earlier so companies can catch higher volumes,&rdquo Ghezzi said.

The real concern is not about El Nino or whether can they catch 2.5m tons .... rather  the prices .... how high !!!  wink  Enjoy ... just be patience

" If the El Nino hits hard, this season' s  2.5m tons is all we' ll have to sell," he added.

Prices out of Peru recently settled at around  $1,600 &ndash $1,620 per metric ton  for super prime fishmeal, a  big jump  from  $1,450-$1,460 last December. 

Fishmeal players hold off on orders for now as season makes early start

April 24, 2014, 1:15 pm


As the year&rsquo s first anchovy season in Peru  kicks off to an early start, fishmeal sellers out of Peru are holding off on booking too many orders for now in anticipation of a firm market ahead.

A potential high level of small anchovy in the catch could see Peru' s first fishing season hit by several ' mini-bans' on fishing, three large Peruvian producers told  Undercurrent News.

This, combined with uncertainty over  this year' s El Nino effect  and over demand in China, coupled with relatively low inventories in Peru and a moderate fishing quota, mean prices are expected to remain firm if not go up in the coming months, said the exporters.

Prices out of Peru recently settled at around $1,600 &ndash $1,620 per metric ton for super prime fishmeal, a big jump from  $1,450-$1,460 last December.

" We are waiting to see how the fishing goes before selling," said one producer, who said he expected prices to stay at those levels for the coming season.

One producer said they had sent vessels out as soon as the season opened at midnight on Wednesday April 23, but had not caught anything yet.

Research from Peru' s marine institute Imarpe has suggested that the stock will have high levels of juvenile fish, said this supplier. " So maybe we will have a mini-ban during this season. It' s not sure we' ll be able to complete our TAC."

" We have to keep monitoring Peruvian fishing conditions &ndash probably mini bans due to juveniles &ndash as well as weather conditions in China to forecast the next prices. In this very moment, prices are firm," said another exporter.

This exporter said he expects prices to be in the range of $1,600 to $1,700 for this year' s season, FOB Peru, super prime meal.

Prices in Shanghai are now said to be around CNY 10,000 ($1,618) per metric ton, compared to CNY 9,600 last December. Prices in China are up by CNY 100-500 depending on the port and the grade, said  one exporter.

Peru, meanwhile, is said to have pre-sold some 90,000 to 100,000 metric tons of fishmeal from the coming season &mdash representing catches of around 420,000t.  The TAC for the year&rsquo s first season was set at 2.5 million tons.

Although there is room to book more, the sellers said they are not in a hurry to seal orders right now, and buyers are also waiting to have a better overview of demand in China.

" The market hasn&rsquo t reached an equilibrium," said one. " It' s hard to say at what level prices will stabilize, it will depend on the catch and  if  the weather and aquaculture season is good in China.  But I don' t think prices will go down."

" If the El Nino hits hard, this season' s 2.5m tons is all we&rsquo ll have to sell," he added.

The demand in China, the biggest fishmeal market, will be a key factor. Last year, a poor aquaculture season sent Chinese demand plummeting and prices dropping &mdash albeit from very high levels &ndash   in the second half of the year.

According to the Peruvian producers canvassed by  Undercurrent,  demand in China is looking firm at the moment, but weather conditions are still uncertain.

" In  the south the weather is good, farmers are foreseeing a good demand from aquaculture, as long as there are no sudden big rains for a long time," said one exporter, commenting on China. On the other hand, he said, " the pig situation is still very bad."

China is reporting to have some 253,000t in inventories, he added. " Off-takes are good, mainly because users were scared and filled their warehouses with current stocks due to expect poor fishing in Peru."

The fishing situation in Peru will become clearer in the next few days,  while the situation in China will become clearer by May/ June.

" We have to wait until weather conditions improve in China in the next weeks to see the real demand," said one producer. " Chinese buyers are waiting for weather conditions to  improve to see the real demand, they also are not in a rush to buy due to the current stock as well as the pending arrivals coming to Chinese ports. The real demand would come during June."


China is reporting to have some 253,000t in inventories, he added. " Off-takes are good, mainly because users were scared and filled their warehouses with current stocks due to expect poor fishing in Peru."

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11-Apr-2014 00:31 China Fishery   /   China Fishery - Low PE       Go to Message
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Newbie, any comments ? Thanks

T2LE56      ( Date: 10-Apr-2014 21:34) Posted:



Stockpiler, you said " Quite likely,  the BBs, including the Ngs,  will presumably try their best to prevent the price from crossing over 0.52.. so, the likely pple who want to see price crossing 0.52 will  be CapIIA/Caryle."

They are the one to offer Carlyle the warrants, why did you said that NGs do not want the price going up ?

 


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07-Apr-2014 08:31 China Fishery   /   China Fishery - Low PE       Go to Message
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Interesting the first season of anchovy and white anchovy fisheries from 23 April and second season of last year 2013 reported good catch.



Patience and await more reports as the season is starting early this time.  yeswink

" Because of this, results for next year won& rsquo t be worse than 2013, as only with the second season of this year we have already caught 2.3m metric tons, which represents 85% of total catches considered in our 2013 financial results," Briceno said.

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07-Apr-2014 08:26 China Fishery   /   China Fishery - Low PE       Go to Message
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Interesting the first season of anchovy and white anchovy fisheries from 23 April and second season of last year 2103 reported good catch.

&ldquo Because of this, results for next year won&rsquo t be worse than 2013, as only with the second season of this year we have already caught 2.3m metric tons, which represents 85% of total catches considered in our 2013 financial results,&rdquo Briceno said.

Exalmar CFO expects higher anchovy quota to boost sales in 2014

November 27, 2013, 8:00 am


Pesquera Exalmar, Peru&rsquo s third largest fishmeal producer in terms of volume, expects a considerable improvement in its financial results in 2014 as higher anchovy catches will boost sales, said the company&rsquo s CFO  Raul Briceno.

This should be a welcome relief following the results of 2013 &mdash the year is proving to be Exalmar&rsquo s worst year since 1998, said the company&rsquo s CEO,  Rossana Ortiz.

Peru has two anchovy fishing seasons a year, the first usually running from May to July, and the second running from November to the end of January. Even when these seasons correspond to the same year, the second season&rsquo s catches are usually sold almost entirely in the following year.

This is why Exalmar&rsquo s 2013 financial report reflects the catches of last year&rsquo s second season (when the quota was  slashed to 732,000t) and this year&rsquo s first season (quota set  at 1.9m), totaling 2.7m metric tons.

exalmar_table

This is a number that Exalmar expects to increase substantially, to 4.8m in 2014, said Briceno.

Specifically, for 2014, Exalmar will include the second season&rsquo s catches of 2013 (quota set  at 2.3m) and the first season of 2014, which is expected to have a quota of 2.5m metric tons, totaling if so 4.8m metric tons, Briceno told  Undercurrent News.

&ldquo Because of this, results for next year won&rsquo t be worse than 2013, as only with the second season of this year we have already caught 2.3m metric tons, which represents 85% of total catches considered in our 2013 financial results,&rdquo Briceno said.

Exalmar&rsquo s fishmeal sales by the end of September 2013 fell to 60.6t, a 41% drop year-on year, as a consequence of the dramatic decrease of anchovy quotas. Even when average prices this year ($1,675/t) were higher than last year ($1,279/t), revenues by Q3 2013 reached $101,428, a 22.7% drop when compared to the same period in 2012.

After a peak of fishmeal prices at around $1,800/t in Q2, prices are expected to remain stable between $1,400-1,500 per ton, Briceno said at a conference call on Nov. 26 in Lima, Peru.

&ldquo Even when these prices are not as high as before, volumes for 2014 will compensate the low prices,&rdquo Briceno said.

Fishmeal industry players recently canvassed by  Undercurrent News  also said they  expected prices to remain flat  in the near future.

Beside flat prices, slow demand in China &mdash Peruvian fishmeal&rsquo s main market  &ndash could represent another challenge for Exalmar. China&rsquo s fishmeal imports this year are expected to  be down by 250,000t  compared to last year, according to  Austevoll&rsquo s Q3 report.

Ortiz, however, said the company has recovered the demand for the year in China as a consequence of the strong aquaculture activities in the country.

&ldquo We export around 55% [fishmeal production] to China, now the market is very stable,&rdquo Ortiz said.

Briceno pointed out this year had been its the worst since 1998, as Exalmar saw results collapse for the first nine months of the year &ndash   profits decreased 69.9% year-on-year to $6.4 million  &mdash after a late fishing season start and lower catch quotas, which depressed stocks and production.
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