ShareJunction - Member Posts

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josemmm123, left 4 more days to the trading of rights. bb is making the move to push the price to 0.001. waiting ...
sci is also range bound. guess you are right, they are likely to manoeuvre using smm.

ADS2200 ( Date: 20-Aug-2020 22:56) Posted:

josemmm123, after what you said i went over to SCI chat ... lots of fearmongering....so people will sell sci share
they also mentioned after 11 sept crediting of scm share, sci price will drop significantly.
thanks for your assessment. it makes more sense to me now

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extracted from sci chat " To determine possible current market price for SCI after XE. You have to determine the industry P/B based on ulitity counters. From SGX data, Asia Pacific Utility Stocks median P/B ration is at 1.1. SCI after demerage NAV is 1.8 per share. This is based on P/B 1.0.
If you believe that SCI without our SMM should trade closer to industry peers at 1.1x. SCI value should be worth 1.98 by itself.
With extra SMM given free to SCI holders at par value based on 427 SMM shares for every 100 SCI shares. That will be worth 0.85. Based on this 2.83.
But just to be on the caution on my evaluation of SCI just based on 0.8 P/B = 1.44 (SCI) + 0.85 (SMM) = $2.29
I' m using possible valuation to determine the fair value of SCI. Of cos, you can be even more pessimistic on using a lower P/B for SCI"

price of sci will drop after crediting of scm share. come to think about it 427 scm is not free. if sci shareholders were to sell away thinking it is free. does it make sense ?

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josemmm123, after what you said i went over to SCI chat ... lots of fearmongering....so people will sell sci share
they also mentioned after 11 sept crediting of scm share, sci price will drop significantly.
thanks for your assessment. it makes more sense to me now

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chart_expert123, appreciate your info. thanks
hope the world will recover soon. understand china is very much under control. mask is not mandatory unless in crowded areas.
the worst is probably behind us
it is good temasek is bringing the coy back to core biz, instead of conglomerate everything rojak.

chart_expert123 ( Date: 20-Aug-2020 21:34) Posted:

You don't really understand global and Singapore shipbuilding industry.

What brought sembmar and keppel growth from 200X to 2015 are offshore drilling rigs and construction vessels.

What you said seaborne trade are commercial vessels which are belong to hyundai, Samsung and China state owned or yangzijiang, Keppel and sembmar cannot compete with them in term of capacity, speed of construction and track record.

Only oil price shoot more than 120 usd per barrels may trigger another round of offshore vessel construction for offshore oil exploration or else, keppel and sembmar only can survive with repair vessels passby singapore or some conversion project to change the function of the vessels.

Why oil price was crashed since 2015 because of shale oil in USA and its cost of production only less than usd50 per barrels. So it is uncertain and sembmar may continue to bleed and temasek may has to dump in another round if 5 year later still Don't see improvement on offshore market.

ADS2200 ( Date: 20-Aug-2020 18:25) Posted:

well, sci certainly got back not just their loan $1.5b, temasek have ownership into the coy. gearing will also reduce after the rights exercise. my part is 100,000 rights about $20,000 or buy the mother share if it is lower than 20c

well i have 5 more days to decide ... limited $$
read somewhere " The global shipbuilding market is expected to grow in future due to increasing seaborne trade and economic growth, rising energy consumption, demand of eco-friendly ships and shipping services. ... The shipbuilding market is expected to grow at a slow but steady pace during the forecast period"

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josemmm123,

trades show little selldown or short. unlike 11 & 13 aug. at this moment not many are selling sci share. seems to me 27 aug is more crucial cos last day for the trading of rights, while 2 sept is the last day for the payment of smm rights. thanks for the info :)

Price

Trade

Volume

Bid

Ask

1.800	22	152,200	152,200	0
1.810	467	2,050,600	1,471,600	324,800
1.820	667	1,625,300	671,000	954,300
1.830	276	1,051,100	559,900	443,500
1.840	80	506,600	366,900	139,700
1.850	30	35,600	15,800	4,700
TOTALS:	1,542	5,421,400	3,237,400	1,867,000

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josemmm123, yes, they are interwined because of the free SMM shares. thanks

josemmm123 ( Date: 20-Aug-2020 19:06) Posted:

I got a theory why Semb marine is bashed down.

1) Bash Semb marine down so that less investors will subscribe. ==> SCI shareholders will get more SMM shares. aka near to 4.92 free SMM shares.
2) Start collecting SCI at around 1.80 region (queue a few thousands lots at 1.80 and below to collect) as SCI investors on seeing SMM share price getting near 20 cents and start panic and fear SMM will go below 20 cents then start selling. BBs accumulate at 1.80+.
3) Then after the acceptance of rights for SMM closed on 2 September, start pushing SMM share price to say 23-25 cents.
4) On the 7 September, Temasek annouces SCI shareholders can get close to 4.92 SMM shares as not many SMM investors subscribe.
5) So now double delight, i) SMM share price going up to 23-25 cents and ii) free 4.92 SMM shares (close to 4.92)
6) SCI (CE) share price chiong... BBs earn huge profit... SMM share price being used pushed up in order to push up SCI too. SMM is cheaper to push as it is cheaper. BBs double delight too.

All these are just now personal opinion. So sit tight, I suspect SMM share price will rebound after 2 September :)

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well, sci certainly got back not just their loan $1.5b, temasek have ownership into the coy. gearing will also reduce after the rights exercise. my part is 100,000 rights about $20,000 or buy the mother share if it is lower than 20c

well i have 5 more days to decide ... limited $$
read somewhere " The global shipbuilding market is expected to grow in future due to increasing seaborne trade and economic growth, rising energy consumption, demand of eco-friendly ships and shipping services. ... The shipbuilding market is expected to grow at a slow but steady pace during the forecast period"

chart_expert123 ( Date: 20-Aug-2020 17:57) Posted:

Equity Holder VS Creditor.

Equity Holder need profit and cash gain from the company to increase its value.

Creditor owned the rights to sell off the assets to repay what they lent to the company.

Today rights is a typical case Creditor convert their lent 1.5 billion and force right issue to 1 to 5 at 20 cents.

Unless, from today onward, Sembmar turn profitable and cash gain. Or else, Creditor have their obligation to do what they want. But, anyway, who else the creditor is? DBS banks? at the end all are under one roof.

chart_expert123 ( Date: 20-Aug-2020 17:40) Posted:

A cash burnt company basically worth nothing

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total vol of share 7,477,900 buy 3,547,000 sell 2,685,000 excluding the block trades.

total vol of rights 146,244,700

Price

Trade

Volume

Bid

Ask

0.001	178	16,230,700	16,230,700	0
0.002	830	127,826,500	40,904,100	57,241,100
0.003	16	2,187,500	0	2,187,500

TOTALS:	1,024	146,244,700	57,134,800	59,428,600

chart_expert123 ( Date: 20-Aug-2020 10:23) Posted:

They won' t sell it to foreign company based on their re-capitalization plan.

You can refer to below news, especially the re-capitalization plan.

https://www.straitstimes.com/business/companies-markets/sembcorp-marine-to-raise-21-billion-with-support-from-temasek-demerge

Last year, SCI raised 1.5billion bond from Temasek to restructure Sembcorp marine finance position to repay the high interest loan.

Instead of asking sembcorp marine to pay back the 1.5bilion. SCI and Temasek plan to settle the borrowing with right subcription. Furthermore, Temasek will come out another 600million to support the right issue to buy all the rights which are not subscribed by existing public shareholders.

Before recapitalization plan, SCI owned 61% share and temasek owned 0% and public shareholders owned 39%.

After recapitalization, SCI and Temasek may owned 35.4% and 58% respectively, in total 93.4% share and public shareholder may owned 6.6% if the majority of 1 to 5 rights are not subcribed by public shareholders and all will be bought by Temasek as per plan.

As such, Temasek will fully owned 93.4% directly and indirectly. Temasek has the right to launch a privatization anytime to delist Sembmar, the price highly likely settle at around right issue price or lower.

Through this round right issue or recapitalization, basically existing public shareholders are wiped out already.

The next plan is by Temasek how to keep the sembcorp marine survive and continue to keep few thousand employees under the group umbrella. Whether, Keppel will divest their keppel offshore & marine and buy over sembcorp marine, all are up to temasek to decide. There is no room for public shareholders to decide anymore

iggyiggs ( Date: 19-Aug-2020 20:52) Posted:

Quick question here.. I bought at 0.623. Currently at a loss of -66%.
Im thinking of just holding it to reduce the loss.
Since it's under TH, chances are low it will go bust right?
What happens if they sell it to a foreigner? The shares we hold will be nothing?

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based on the last trading price of $0.85/share, the theoretical terp was 30.8c/share
today mothershare traded 20.5 - 21c while the rights is 0.02c.

to go in now skip all the shaking before the announcement. still need to have a clear mind. haha ... $20,000 is a lot of money plus paying for the rights $100-$200 + brokerage fee.

please share your view

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agree 0.1c is the lowest. still waiting for 0.001. only prepared max 100,000 @ 0.1c - $100 no choice got to pay brokerage and all is equal to rights share. 100,000 rights share is $20,000 that the max
wondering who is buying @ 0.2c ?
don' t undertsand why temasek will want to take the coy private with the whitewash resolution. with more than 80% they can shape the coy.

next thursday is the last trading day for the rights - 5 working days
yesterday top vol for the rights, today top 2

uiop1223 ( Date: 20-Aug-2020 11:52) Posted:

Rights now dropped to $0.001 😂 min price. Cannot drop any lower

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thinking of waiting before the last day of trading rights then decide to buy or not. if below 20c buy mothershare?

AlanJpe ( Date: 19-Aug-2020 17:28) Posted:

If someone own 1000 SCM shares bought during the highs of $5. Now got 5000 rights. Sell at 0.002, x5 = 0.01 ($10). Pay $20+ brokerage. Still need to top-up?

uiop1223 ( Date: 19-Aug-2020 10:55) Posted:

Ya... it will be like SIA MCB. Towards end of trading period, Selling at $0.001 but no takers

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you said temasek to launch a privatization. if that is their intention then why need the whitewash resolution ?

chart_expert123 ( Date: 20-Aug-2020 10:23) Posted:

They won' t sell it to foreign company based on their re-capitalization plan.

You can refer to below news, especially the re-capitalization plan.

https://www.straitstimes.com/business/companies-markets/sembcorp-marine-to-raise-21-billion-with-support-from-temasek-demerge

Last year, SCI raised 1.5billion bond from Temasek to restructure Sembcorp marine finance position to repay the high interest loan.

Instead of asking sembcorp marine to pay back the 1.5bilion. SCI and Temasek plan to settle the borrowing with right subcription. Furthermore, Temasek will come out another 600million to support the right issue to buy all the rights which are not subscribed by existing public shareholders.

Before recapitalization plan, SCI owned 61% share and temasek owned 0% and public shareholders owned 39%.

After recapitalization, SCI and Temasek may owned 35.4% and 58% respectively, in total 93.4% share and public shareholder may owned 6.6% if the majority of 1 to 5 rights are not subcribed by public shareholders and all will be bought by Temasek as per plan.

As such, Temasek will fully owned 93.4% directly and indirectly. Temasek has the right to launch a privatization anytime to delist Sembmar, the price highly likely settle at around right issue price or lower.

Through this round right issue or recapitalization, basically existing public shareholders are wiped out already.

The next plan is by Temasek how to keep the sembcorp marine survive and continue to keep few thousand employees under the group umbrella. Whether, Keppel will divest their keppel offshore & marine and buy over sembcorp marine, all are up to temasek to decide. There is no room for public shareholders to decide anymore

iggyiggs ( Date: 19-Aug-2020 20:52) Posted:

Quick question here.. I bought at 0.623. Currently at a loss of -66%.
Im thinking of just holding it to reduce the loss.
Since it's under TH, chances are low it will go bust right?
What happens if they sell it to a foreigner? The shares we hold will be nothing?