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Wireless Towers

American Tower, the second-biggest U.S. REIT by market value, owned or leased 22,599 wireless and broadcast communication towers in the U.S. and 33,074 towers internationally as of March 31, according to its most recent quarterly filing. Matt Peterson, a spokesman for the real-estate investment trust, didn’t respond to messages seeking comment. The Boston-based firm has a market value of $29.2 billion, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

About 26.3 million shares of the company changed hands yesterday, the most in five years, Bloomberg data show. More than 171,000 put options traded, about 90 times the average for 2013 through last week.

“This stock should be mid-40s,” Block said in a Bloomberg Television interview yesterday. “Our goal with this report was for people to actually read it and I think people are reading it and after they read it, digest it and the company responds, I’m feeling very good about it.”

This is the first time Block has targeted a U.S. company. The 37-year-old investor gained fame for his short-selling calls in Asia after regulators halted trading in four of the first five companies he targeted starting in June 2010. Hedge fund manager John Paulson sold his Sino-Forest Corp. stake at a loss after Block said the company overstated its plantation assets. Sino-Forest filed for bankruptcy protection in 2012.

Little Impact

American Tower shares have more than tripled since November 2008. The stock trades at 25.8 times funds from operations, compared with a multiple of 19.8 for Simon Property Group Inc., the largest U.S. REIT by market value.

“I don’t think I’ve ever seen a Muddy Waters report having this little an impact on the market,” Ophir Gottlieb, managing director at San Francisco-based Livevol Inc., a provider of options-market analytics, said by phone yesterday. “It just wasn’t that big of a deal.”

Hedging by people who owned the stock may explain why the shares didn’t fall more after put trading surged, Gottlieb said. In the two days before the report, more than 40,000 bearish contracts changed hands each day, compared with a historical average of 1,900, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The shares slid 4 percent from July 15 to 16.

$250 Million

There is about a $250 million discrepancy between the price American Tower said it paid for towers in Brazil and the actual sale price, the Muddy Waters report said, citing research from financial statements of the companies acquired, Brazil’s central bank and six industry sources.

American Tower rejected Block’s assertion that it paid around $300 million for the Brazilian communication sites, according to a filing released after the close of trading yesterday. The company said the price was about $585 million for the towers, financed by intercompany loans, cash from operations and equity contributions.

American Tower’s management shows a “lack of faith” in the company’s stock price, Block said in his report, citing share sales from exercised options. The company also faces weak growth overseas, such as India, Ghana and Brazil, according to the note.

“When we have gone into the field and actually rolled up our sleeves and figured out what is going on in many of these emerging markets, the reality is actually very different from what the company tells you,” Block said yesterday. “The way that this business is working overseas, it’s just not going to work as well as it has in the U.S.”

Pedestrian, Foolish

Muddy Waters failed to identify any new challenges facing American Tower, according to Andrew Hamerling, managing partner of Wavelength Asset Management, a New York-based hedge fund.

“This report was pedestrian and foolish,” said Hamerling. American Tower is one of the largest holdings in the Wavelength Asset Management fund, he said. “The emerging market risks were always there, and the company had done an admirable job managing those risks and returning value to shareholders.”

Wells Fargo’s Jennifer Fritzsche said she disagreed with Block’s contention that the business faces a major threat from Wi-Fi because data demand is growing, according to a note published yesterday. Investors should buy shares of this “high-class” company, Macquarie’s Kevin Smithen said in a report.

The stock has 19 buy ratings, five holds and one sell, according to analyst recommendations compiled by Bloomberg. The shares are down 4.4 percent in 2013.

Real estate investment trusts, whose primary income streams are from properties, don’t pay federal income taxes. In exchange, they’re required by the Internal Revenue Service to distribute at least 90 percent of their taxable earnings to shareholders in the form of dividends.

To contact the reporters on this story: Nikolaj Gammeltoft in New York at ngammeltoft@bloomberg.net Scott Moritz in New York at smoritz6@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Lynn Thomasson at lthomasson@bloomberg.net

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18-Jul-2013 18:26

Yongnam / Yong nam

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It Is Almost A Dead End Anyway

Possibility 1==> > Never Win

Share price straight away go down to test $0.30. Might stuck there for another few years due to:

1) Singapore property market cooling down

2)SG Gov revamping construction industry to improve efficient ==> > A tough and costly process that is going to cause a number of construction firms to fail

3) A lack of development opportunity in SE-Asia in the short run (1-2 years), as fund flow back to developed countries in seek of temporily better risk-return ratio. Less supply of fund=> higher interest rate=> projects become more expensive and thus less often.

Possibility 2 ==> > Win

Risky deal as Myanmar's quest for Democracy is a going to be a very rocky one. 2 signifcant risk factors that could jeopardies Myanmar's determination:

In the short run (1-2years), the exit of fund from Asia is going to cause some diruptions in the Asia's economies and might lead to more serious threats- depreciation of asia currencies, flight of captial. Simply put, 1997 Aisa currency crisis might repeat itself. To fend off the potential currency attack, developing nations like Indonesia and Phillipine have been working hard to input measures ever since the start of first Fed's QE. However this is not true for Myanmar, which has been recieving much attentions and FDI in the recent years. Thus Myanmar, in my opinion has high risk of suffering economic failure in the event of fund flowing out from Asia. The resulting economy hardship would damage Myanmar's determination toward democracy.

In the longer run (3 years and above), there is still a risk that democracy might be stopped due to politcal pressures from the local rich and powerful groups. Myanmar has been too quick in opening up its economy and trade. Economic theories told us that trade lead to reallocation of resources(wealth) and power among different group in the country- in this case, wealth flow from rich to the poor. With this, we can foresee the richs in Myanmar will quickly lose their interest. Meanwhile the interest-group theory forecast that the few rich people in the country will benefit at the expense of the many poor in the country. Thus this give rise to the risk that the riches might pressure the government to give up democracy and the riches will most like get their way. Do remember that true power still lie with the military at this point in time.

The above mentioned 2 risks would threaten Myanmar's quest for democarcy and Yongnam project. Should the country gave up and return to its previous state, Yongnam's property in the country would most probably be nationalised or fail to recieve payment for the project.

Due to these reasons, I deemed Yongnam's prospects as bleak and divested it a couple of days ago. Just sharing my view here, email me rosesyrup123@yahoo.com if you have something to share with me. Thanks.

Author: Rosesyrup

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05-Jul-2013 17:19

Olam Intl / OLAM_OLAM

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Thanks for pointing out. Was trying to base my argument on M& M proposition, apparently I got it all mixed up.

IGNORE MY ARGUMENT ON ROA & ROE.====> > > > > THEY ARE WRONG!!!!!

Sorry About That =.=''

pineapple123 ( Date: 05-Jul-2013 15:51) Posted:

i'm not vested in olam but i thought i should clarify some things here.

1) ROA represents return on assets, NOT cost of borrowing. ROE represents return on shareholders equity, NOT cost of equity.

2) Accounting 101: Assets = Liabilities + Equities.

ROA = Net Income / Total Assets

ROE= Net Income/ Total shareholder equity

As long as a company takes on some debt (even the slightest bit), ROA will always be less than ROE. ROA can never be > ROE. it can only be at most equal, which is when the company has zero liabilities, which is realistically impossible.

The way to use ROA and ROE together is as follows. If ROA is sound and debt levels are not too high, a strong ROE means that the company is doing a good job of generating returns from shareholder equity. However, if there is a low ROA and high ROE, it can give a false impression to shareholders on the efficiency of management in using its sources of capital.

Rosesyrup ( Date: 05-Jul-2013 15:23) Posted:

How is Olam going to refinance its debt? Well, it could be by bonds, equity, bank borrowing etc. Asking such question is as good as asking: How is Olam going to transport its nuts and coffee from the field? How is Olam going to hire its next CEO? The answers to these questions should really be handled by the management and that's what they are paid to do.

Rather, a better question would be: Is Olam over leveraged such that it's deterimental to the shareholders? To answer the question, we should look at both ROA and ROE. The former is the cost of borrowing while the latter is the cost of using shareholders' fund (aka cost of equity), and the combine of both make up the cost of financing (COF). A firm is able to increase its value by reducing its COF, which is simply a cost. Since cost of borrowing is often cheaper than cost of equity, Olam reduce its COF by borrowing. However, as Olam take up more and more debt, its cost of borrowing rise due to higher risk for lenders.This means that Olam can only borrow to increase its firm value, so long as its cost of borrowing is lower than its cost of equity. Simply put, Olam use of debt is benefitting shareholders as long as ROA< ROE. And Olam's debt is deterimental only when ROA> ROE.

Now, lets look at Olam's ROA and ROE to solve the our question: Is Olam over leveraged such that it's deterimental to the shareholders? Olam's ROA=2.98% while its ROE=11.13%, thus ROA< ROE. We can thus conclude that since ROA is safely below ROE, Olam use of debt is beneficial to shareholders as it reduce the cost of financing. Thus Olam is not over leverage, and in fact with ROE so much higher than ROA, Olam could have use more debt to further create more shareholders' value.

Reference:

1) http://markets.ft.com/research/Markets/Tearsheets/Financials?s=O32:SES

2) http://topmanagers.ca/BlogSubDetail.aspx?DocId=13& CurYear=0

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05-Jul-2013 15:23

Olam Intl / OLAM_OLAM

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Obfuscate ( Date: 05-Jul-2013 14:23) Posted:

Just remember leverage works both ways. It works for the investor on the way up and works against the investor on the way down. In Olam's case, the company kept borrowing more and more to buy assets so it has amassed $9bn+ debt compared with $3bn+ current market cap. Question to ask yourself: how is the company going to refinance its borrowings?

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05-Jul-2013 14:50

Keppel Reit / K-REIT

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A number of investors are rather concern of Kep Reit's high leverage ratio. Although it's true that financial cost will increase once interest rates start hiking, that is hardly the full story. Interest rates normally go up during economy recovery, which allows management to increase rental fee that will offset the higher financial cost, at least partially. There is a recent article on Singapore's commercial property rental expect to rise, you can verify it.

Anyway, the spotlight is not on whether the rental fee would rise more than the financial cost. Rather, the mainpoint here is revaluation gain from the properties. For the past few years, property developers have largely been focusing on residential properties, and so commerical properties have been neglected. As the economy recovers, business activities will increased and commercial properties (CP) will experience high demand and low supply. Property developers may quickly turn toward developing CP, but the it will still take them at least 2-3 years before the new properties are ready to recieve new tentants. The then higher interest rate would also make it expensive to develop new properties. All these give Kep Reit a strong potential for high revaluation gain. I have given it a TP of $1.82.

P.S. Only good management teams could recongnise and exploit the opportunities offered by the low interest rates environment, which prevail for the past few years. Therefore when compared aganist lowly leveraged reits, Kep Reit's high leverage ratio is actually a display of strenght rather than weakness.

sean123 ( Date: 02-Jun-2013 10:12) Posted:

bought quite some lots of K-reit, recently it kept dropping, can anybody analyze this counter?

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05-Jul-2013 13:45

Olam Intl / OLAM_OLAM

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Regardless. Anyway Temasek Holding's porfolio just hit record high:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100864417

So to those who have doubted Temasek's capability and foresight, that's something for you to choke on.

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05-Jul-2013 01:34

Olam Intl / OLAM_OLAM

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To some, the sky is not really that clear yet . According to Block, Olam will still fail within a year after issuing the $750M bonds. To completely disprove MW's claim, Olam would have to survive for more than a year- 6 months left anyway. As most instituitional investors go for counters with stable prospect and they should be back once Olam completely break the MW's curse.

Indeed, WAY TO GO! AND SIX MORE MONTHS TO GO!

samson ( Date: 04-Jul-2013 22:36) Posted:

The sky is clear now,

Long terms Olam is Good to buy, They loan money from bank for investments.

Olam International is a leading global, integrated supply chain manager and processor of agricultural products and food ingredients from farm to factory gate. Our distinctive position rests on four sources of competitive advantage:

1. The strength of our origination capability and risk management

2. Our strong position in the destination markets worldwide by virtue of our ability to offer customised marketing solutions and value-added services to our customers

3. Our focus on the agricultural commodities asset class and our selective integration and diversified presence across this asset class and

4. Our organisational advantage by virtue of our leadership, ability to operate as one company, entrepreneurial and empowered culture and embedded stretch and ambition.

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29-May-2013 03:49

Olam Intl / OLAM_OLAM

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Singapore Hot Stocks: Olam International Continues to Embarrass Muddy Waters

Olam has been one of our best performers this year, as people panicked and sold on the Muddy Waters nonsense, I made Olam a strong buy, that move has brought our investors solid returns over the year. (Become an Investor)

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish

SOURCE: http://www.livetradingnews.com/singapore-hot-stocks-olam-international-continues-to-embarass-muddy-waters-115979.htm

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23-Jan-2013 14:11

SATS / Sats

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Don't let my random opinion affect any of your decision. And definitely I wasn't hinting at anything.

Pay more attention to the research papers.

Rosesyrup ( Date: 23-Jan-2013 14:01) Posted:

Because one of the research house (CIMB, I think) upgrade SATs to buy in, on the expectation that the increase in flight traffic would increase SATs revenue.

But there are obviously good (in fact very strong) reason why UOB downgraded the share. Go find out for yourselves. A hint here: Go do an informal talk with some of its staff, treat them to some kopi or something.

I have not taken any position on this counter.

iodium ( Date: 13-Dec-2012 18:13) Posted:

Hi, anybody know what cause SATS increase quite fast?

I cannot find any latest news.

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23-Jan-2013 14:01

SATS / Sats

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iodium ( Date: 13-Dec-2012 18:13) Posted:

Hi, anybody know what cause SATS increase quite fast?

I cannot find any latest news.

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04-Jan-2013 12:14

Olam Intl / OLAM_OLAM

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Good News, there are quite a number of shares in the lending pool- a sign of shortists covering their positions. Time to increase holding and corner the shortist.

https://www1.cdp.sgx.com/scdcint/sbl/viewLendingPool.do#

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03-Jan-2013 17:57

Olam Intl / OLAM_OLAM

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Olam 'at its strongest since IPO'

08:35 AM Jan 03, 2013

SINGAPORE - Olam International, the commodity trader that short-seller Carson Block said may fail, said its balance sheet is the strongest since it first sold shares to the public in 2005 and that it is " comfortable" with its current equity levels and gearing.

The company had S$3.42 billion of equity and S$6.99 billion of utilised net debt as of Sept 30, Singapore- based Olam, the world's second-largest rice trader, said yesterday in a filing. It had S$10.71 billion in liquidity as of that date, Olam said.

Mr Block first questioned Olam's accounting methods at a conference in London on Nov 19, and later likened it to failed energy trader Enron in a report by his research firm Muddy Waters. Olam, which counts Singapore's Temasek Holdings as its second-biggest shareholder, refuted Block's claims and responded with a proposed US$1.25-billion (S$1.53-billion) bond and warrants offering to address " lingering doubts" about its liquidity.

" The company has the strongest balance sheet position including its highest equity base and lowest gearing since its initial public offering in February 2005" as of June 30, 2012, Olam said yesterday. The company " has a solid future on the back of a clear and differentiated strategy, a strong business model, and a proven execution capability," it added.

The stock rose 5.8 per cent to S$1.645 at the close of trade in Singapore yesterday. The statement was filed after trading ended. Olam, the second-worst performer on the STI in 2012, lost 27 percent last year and is down 5.5 per cent since Mr Block's comments in November.

Olam has said it faces no risk of insolvency and sued Mr Block and Muddy Waters on Nov 21 in the Singapore High Court, calling their comments malicious falsehoods. Muddy Waters rated Olam a strong sell in a 133-page report in November, saying the commodity trader was likely to fail.

" The board is comfortable with the current equity levels and gearing," Olam said yesterday in the filing.

Olam does not need any further new equity at this stage and does not need to access the debt capital markets until the end of fiscal 2014 should it choose to, it said yesterday. BLOOMBERG

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30-Dec-2012 18:38

Olam Intl / OLAM_OLAM

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Regarding your statement " Sunny quoted " We will take stock and see whether we need to slow down, decelerate, recalibrate. We're convinced that we've got a great strategy . . . but we might recalibrate . . . the pace at which we are doing things," . Sunny merely felt that the company's acquistion plan might be too agressive and too rapid, thus leading to investors' doubt and uncomfortableness. Sunny did not say anything about the firm has difficulty in its debt repayment. If you think that investors' uncomfortableness is a fundamental problem, I have got to fully agree with you. Although it is true that some investors are concered with its high debt, there are still a large number of investors who are willing to buy into Olam. This can be easily seen from Olam current share price- Olam's market value is merely 8% less than what it was piror to MW's attack. Thus such fundamental " problem" is not a major concern for me and it appear to me that the most of the shareholders remain comfortable with this firm.

As for the " much anticpated second report from Olam" , I am not sure who is anticpating such a report. You or the market? MW's 133 pages report has already been retorted by Olam's 45 pages report. After its 133 pages report, MW has yet to make any new claim- " new" is the key word here. What is there for Olam to response to? Maybe you would like to quote us some articles on market expecting Olam's second report. As for your demand for a perfect company without any weakness, perhaps Olam with its high debt is reallynot an investment option for you and you should seek for other counters. If you are kind enough, you might like to share with us who are the perfect companies before you leave for other topics on this forum. Remember to quote us the reasons and your definition of a " perfect firm" too- maybe a firms which are monopoly and have 100% of its assets in cash are perfect firms? Thanks in advance.

You have also raised the concern that many of the forum users, who posted supportive comments about Olam, are actually multiple accounts owned by the same person. However, this is something that you can't verify or prove. So what happened to your call for a " more balance,truthful and enriching discussion in a respectful manner" , when you keep harping on something you can't prove? Why not be more respectful, and give everyone on this forum the benefit of doubt. Afterall when it comes to discussion, it's the content of the comments that matter, not the person behind it- be objective!!!!

Before I end my comment here, I would like to reiterate the great opportunity I see in the agriculture business in the coming years. Comparative advantage (CA) of farming lies with developing countries due to its cheaper labor, land and other legal aspect. However, for decades developed countries (mostly from Europe) have distorted such CA, by providing their farmers with generous subsidies- for political reason.Such large subsidies lead to great competition for firms in developing countries who giving out lesser subsidies. As a result, agriculture firms in developing countries recieved much thinner margin and are forced to operate in a much more efficient manner in order to survive. Nevertheless, the situation is changing, the recent European financial crisis have forced many of its government to reform: cut subsidies to farmers and move to export goods that they have CA in. One of the most recent example is Dairy farmers from France, Germany, Luxembourg, and the Netherlands went on a strike aganist the low purchase price set by their governemts.

Refer to http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/9705438/EU-dairy-farmers-spray-Brussels-parliament-with-milk.html

With the European nations moving away from subsidising agri businesses, we can expect farmers in these nations to shift toward other industries that their countires have CA in. This would in turn reduce the competition for agri firms operating in the developing countries, and their margin would also improve. Most of Olam operations are in developing countries. Olam with its newly acquired business units would provide it with the economies of scales it needed to compete in the agriculture industry when the world economy recover.

Just as the lemon are pretty good, grapes are pretty sour too.

Octavia ( Date: 30-Dec-2012 12:59) Posted:

Another aspect of your self denial on your part.

You said Sunny has a lot to learn from this episode to bring Olam to a new high. It is good to know that he is doing reflection. Sunny quoted " We will take stock and see whether we need to slow down, decelerate, recalibrate. We're convinced that we've got a great strategy . . . but we might recalibrate . . . the pace at which we are doing things," Isnt this statement as self admission that something is not working fundamental right?

I reckon investors are waiting in anticipation for the second rebuttal report from Olam. I asked myself " why the management would take such a long time to come out a report.Dont they have a very the experienced team working inside?" Maybe the report is not coming out afterall with fear of more scrutiny and might damper the share price.

I am not here to talk down the company,just that I wish to find out a balance and true views of this counter before any investment.

counter ( Date: 29-Dec-2012 13:17) Posted:

This is a good article. It clearly points out the weaknesses of Olam, strengths aside. I agree with the author when he says
“In the longer term, the final outcome can be very different in Olam's case. However, this can only happen if it uses the new funds to improve its operations, business model, strategies, capital structure and governance. If it is business as usual for Olam, then it risks ending up the same way as ABC.”
Sunny has a lot to learn from this episode to bring Olam to a new high. It is good to know that he is doing reflection.
" We will take stock and see whether we need to slow down, decelerate, recalibrate. We're convinced that we've got a great strategy . . . but we might recalibrate . . . the pace at which we are doing things," Mr Verghese told The Business Times yesterday
http://www.asiaone.com/A1Business/News/Story/A1Story20121130-386829.html

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20-Dec-2012 13:44

Olam Intl / OLAM_OLAM

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According to MW, the latest bonds issuance will extend Olam's life span for a few more months only, and Olam would have bankrupt without it. MW also claimed that it did not change its view on Olam unless Olam were to raise another 3 billions- simply put, this bonds issuance is deemed to insignficant by MW. If you really believe in what MW has claimed so far, you should keep your short position for another 1 year or so.

Secondly, Temasek simply agree to be be an underwriter for the latest issuance but has yet to provide any significant help to Olam. There might not even be a need for Temasek to underwrite anything if every shareholder takes up his right.

Finally, when one attack a company, he can expect retailation from its shareholders. This is especially the case for firms with powerful and influential shareholders. For MW's case, apparently it did not put in sufficient effort in their game theory analysis when it claimed that Olam will go bankrupt. This goes to say something about MW's so called comprehensive study on Olam and MW's foresight.

Octavia ( Date: 20-Dec-2012 13:07) Posted:

I don't think Muddy Waters is doing this for purely altruistic reasons. Neither are they a modern day Robin Hood. They're making a living out of this. This is precisely their job. But then again, this is a good wake up call for Olam and its investors. It could have been worse. If I may ask, who dare to say Olam would not have gone bust by now if Temasek haven't came in. The fact that Temasek did, and thus, the credibility of Olam has indeed become muddied.Investing should not be about hoping for some white knights arrival but about confidence in the issuer's stability without any external help.Temasek could be viewed as protecting Singapore Inc in a wider context.If SGX’s reputation is affected due to accounting & listing practice then it will affect us also since we invest in SGX.

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18-Dec-2012 17:50

Olam Intl / OLAM_OLAM

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Erm, those shareholders who wish to exercise their right got to recall their shares 4 working days before XD.

Refer to the following SGX page for more rule on borrowing and lending shares:

http://www.sgx.com/wps/portal/sgxweb/home/products/securities/sbl/!ut/p/c5/04_SB8K8xLLM9MSSzPy8xBz9CP0os3gjR0cTDwNnA0t3d0M3A8_QkDAXxzAv41B3Y6B8JE55Vy9zinSbEdDtpR-VnpOfBHSln0d-bqp-pH6UOUK9f6ihOVC9U6CJU1ioobOFsX5kTmp6YnKlfkFuaESlc7oiAOE33LE!/dl3/d3/L0lJSklna2shL0lCakFBTXlBQkVSQ0lBISEvWUZOQzFOS18yN3chLzdfMkFBNEgwQzA5T1UxNzBJVUJRNEJWVTFDODM!/?WCM_PORTLET=PC_7_2AA4H0C09OU170IUBQ4BVU1C83017268_WCM& WCM_GLOBAL_CONTEXT=/wps/wcm/connect/sgx_en/home/products/securities/sbl/education/

counter ( Date: 18-Dec-2012 17:32) Posted:

Does anyone know whether the borrowed scripts should be returned on 27 December or 2 Janunary (book closure date). I guess it should be the latter.

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