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Losing the light: Valuetronics on a downward spiral as Dutch customer leaves

And cheaper Chinese products are making the market more competitive.

Valuetronics faces an uncertain future as its largest customer &ndash a Dutch lighting, consumer electronics and healthcare conglomerate - has decided to split its lighting business from the rest of its businesses, in order to focus on higher-margin, less-challenging segments. Lighting, in particular LED lighting, accounts for 40% of Valuetronics&rsquo s revenue and 30% of its gross profit.

A report by Maybank Kim Eng adds that premium LED lighting brands are being undercut by cheaper Chinese products. Valuetronics&rsquo s customer has had to cut its prices as it repositions its brand in the consumer mass market. Valuetronics&rsquo s margins in 1QFY15E were affected by the price cuts. Despite its customer&rsquo s split, the worst still lies ahead, in our view. We expect Valuetronics&rsquo s profits to decline in the next two years.

With the slump in lighting, Valuetronics&rsquo s Industrial business will have to shoulder the burden of growth. However, we do not think Industrial&rsquo s growth will be enough to offset the decline in the lighting-heavy Consumer Electronics division. Some 60% of Valuetronics&rsquo s revenue comes from lighting products for its Dutch customer.

- See more at: http://sbr.com.sg/retail/more-news/losing-light-valuetronics-downward-spiral-dutch-customer-leaves#sthash.e1Eh9wcW.dpuf

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12-Oct-2014 20:36

Healthway Med / healthway, healthy?

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Hope it donen' t happen that way.

albeniz ( Date: 12-Oct-2014 13:58) Posted:

Looking at an investment time horizon of 20 years. Can accummulate for the long term.

This counter will spring to life suddenly when there is an outbreak of SARS, H1N1 or Ebola.

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12-Oct-2014 14:52

Hi-P / HI-P INTERNATIONAL LIMITED

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Tumbled 10.5% in 2 days! Friday especially bad. Plunged 7.2%. What' s the bad news anyone cld share?

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12-Oct-2014 14:38

Tiong Woon / Tiong Woon

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Put it this way, appears (to me anyway) one of the more obvious ones where price seems to be controlled.

haruta ( Date: 12-Oct-2014 13:04) Posted:

U meaning this is a highly cornered stock, hard to play?

Qanghoo ( Date: 12-Oct-2014 10:38) Posted:

This is one of those super CK stocks. Recommended TP by one analyst is 45c, but price keep going down. Tha' s why sometime ago when someone said going to 40c, I said 32c more likely. I had noticed the apparent price being pressed down for sometime. That' s why I quitted.

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12-Oct-2014 10:38

Tiong Woon / Tiong Woon

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haruta ( Date: 11-Oct-2014 23:59) Posted:

Crane biz not as good?

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10-Oct-2014 08:49

China Fishery / China Fishery - Low PE

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65% chance of a weak EN developing between Oct-Dec 14, lasting into early 2015. Coincide with Peru' s second anchovy fishing season? If happens, likely to impact CP' s profits for FY 15.

EL NIÑ O/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION

issued by

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS

and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society

9 October 2014

ENSO Alert System Status: El Niñ o Watch

Synopsis: El Niñ o is favored to begin in the next 1-2 months and last into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2015.

During September 2014, above-average sea surface temperatures (SST) continued across much of the equatorial Pacific (Fig. 1). The weekly Niñ o indices were relatively unchanged from the beginning of the month, with values ranging from +0.3° C (Niñ o-3.4) to +1.1° C (Niñ o-1+2) at the end of the month (Fig. 2). The change in subsurface heat content anomalies (averaged between 180º -100º W) was also minimal (Fig. 3) due to the persistence of above-average temperatures at depth across the central and eastern Pacific (Fig. 4). Equatorial low-level winds were largely near average for the month, though brief periods of westerly wind anomalies continue to arise. Upper-level winds were also close to average for the month. The Southern Oscillation Index has remained negative, and rainfall was near average around the Date Line, with a mix of positive and negative anomalies over Indonesia and Papua New Guinea (Fig. 5). The lack of coherent atmospheric and oceanic features indicates the continuation of ENSO-neutral.

Most models predict El Niñ o to develop during October-December 2014 and to continue into early 2015 (Fig. 6). The consensus of forecasters indicates a 2-in-3 chance of El Niñ o during the November 2014 - January 2015 season. This El Niñ o will likely remain weak (3-month values of the Niñ o-3.4 index between 0.5° C and 0.9° C) throughout its duration. In summary, El Niñ o is favored to begin in the next 1-2 months and last into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2015 (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome).

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08-Oct-2014 22:50

Seatrium / Sembmarine

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Looks like price may have bottomed out. KepCorp seems to be the next punching bag. Kena wacked left and rignt the last few days.

uchihaclan ( Date: 08-Oct-2014 16:12) Posted:

lousy stock and lousy company i think

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07-Oct-2014 10:33

China Fishery / China Fishery - Low PE

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Actually, it' d be better for an EN to happen quickly cos it' s not going away, but only being pushed back till don' t know when - which translates into uncertainty in profitibility/loss for CF. If an EN happens now, we can be more sure that next year or two, no EN, likely to translate into better performance for CF so that the debt can be partially paid off at least and earnings can be more normalised.

stockpicker ( Date: 03-Oct-2014 10:54) Posted:

Lucky for CF

http://nepalesevoice.com.au/threat-of-el-nino-eases-says-australian-weather-agency/

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06-Oct-2014 09:25

Neptune Orient L Rg / NOL

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Trying its level best to stop sinking, but finding the going very tough.

Davidson ( Date: 05-Oct-2014 23:41) Posted:

Hello Expert, so this giant direction is sailing or sinking? Any advise.Thanks

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05-Oct-2014 08:08

United Engineers / United Engineers

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Let' s also bear in mind that when UE bought WBL, it was for the property portfolio, particularly in the PRC (I think). So, the deep value probably include the holdings in the PRC whcih Mr C might be eying, but keeping mum. But then if the offer is too cheap, like FnN originally, and more recently LCD, some big brothers wld not standby without upping the ante. The lesson for minorities is don' t sell out too cheap, wait first for the real value to emerge (very painful for me cos I sold LCD, which I had been holding on for yrs at 23.5).

Kyoto2008 ( Date: 05-Oct-2014 00:18) Posted:

The fear is that OCBC and GE sells too cheaply to Charoen.

The action of UE selling the Wearnes automotives bit, Orchard Gateway, UE E& C, MFS tech works well for UE shareholders because the assets are immediately turned into hard cash at market values.

I very much doubt Charoen is after all those bits already sold off by UE, the freehold properties and other UE assets are the crown jewels. Not only Charoen, but others would love to own them.

.

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04-Oct-2014 22:10

United Engineers / United Engineers

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If I remember correctly. OCBC had indicated very on that he wanted FnN and not APB. It was OCBC which had insisted all or nothing.

Kyoto2008 ( Date: 04-Oct-2014 21:13) Posted:

He has a plan which was not known at first in the F& N and APB takeover. Initially, everyone thought he was after APB, but the end game was really the F& N properties that he was going for. After acquiring F& N, he spun off the properties into a reits and milk the drinks biz from F& N that is a cash cow. Look at the share price of Thai Bev, if Charoen has not done well, it won' t be soaring like nobody biz.

In UE, it is straightforward, he is after the properties. If he can' t raise the cash, I seriously doubt he would even waste his time to talk to OCBC and GE, there is no doubt that he will be reaching out to grab UE.

When the mkt opens, best grab as many UE shares you can buy from stale bulls. Looking at a $1 gain per share when new predators emerge to challenge Charoen.

i_love_girls ( Date: 04-Oct-2014 20:54) Posted:

Charoen keep buying! Donno will get into deep deep debts or not sia!

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03-Oct-2014 22:47

Courts Asia / Courts Asia

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Bro, from what I' ve checked, buy backs started around 21 Oct 13, slightly before the release of CA s 2Q13 results. The share slide started after the 1Q13 results. From Oct 13 to now, there have been many buy backs, price ranging from 80c+ to current price level. The CEO purchased 2 mil+ from late Nov to Dec 13. I' ve not done further checks on whether he bought more after that. But I seem to recall he took a loan too to finance his purchases. Tried to look up details to refresh my memory, but don' t seem to remember where I' d seen it.

CharlesChen ( Date: 03-Oct-2014 21:52) Posted:

Bro, from what I have seen from the share buyback from SGX since august, their avg price is around 0.45 which also happens to be the closing price today. I am not sure where u got the info that their buy back avg price is way above current price. Can u list down for me?

Qanghoo ( Date: 03-Oct-2014 20:51) Posted:

From the SGX website, they' d been buying back at far above current price. Furthermore, CEO was buying at much higher price too. They probably tried their best to contain the rot, but did not succeed.

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03-Oct-2014 20:51

Courts Asia / Courts Asia

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CharlesChen ( Date: 03-Oct-2014 19:04) Posted:

The reason for the drop to this current level is due to the foreseeable lacklustre retail environment in both SG and Msia so downside has already been priced in since previous quarter report.

Indo stores performance is a question mark but the probability of it being a catalyst to move stock is more than it being a downside risk at this point of time.

The final quarter is usually a buying season as Christmas, new year and chinese new year are all around the corner plus bonuses comes in so retail sectors should benefit from it.

Share buy back at current level signifies that management felt the risk for further downside is limited as they could have chosen to buy back when it was above $0.5 but they didnt and they wait until recently then buy back.

Overall, theres a gd chance for it to bounce back above $0.5 level but I will say there are better stocks with better probability for a move as compared to Courts.

Qanghoo ( Date: 03-Oct-2014 18:34) Posted:

Earn more in Indonesia may be offset by lacklustre retail environment in Singapore. Also, in Malaysia, seems the increase in petrol price may have a negative impact on the retail scene. But wild there be a likelihood of pre-GST spending to pull in the retail $?

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03-Oct-2014 18:34

Courts Asia / Courts Asia

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CharlesChen ( Date: 03-Oct-2014 15:56) Posted:

For the bros who have this counter, the key catalyst will be the new stores opening in Indo. End year period buying mood plus novelty should support the new stores. Key risk will be possible social unrest when jokowi take office this 20th but the probability is low for now.

Company' s decent cash position should support oversold positions with share buy back.

kelvinleow79 ( Date: 03-Oct-2014 15:47) Posted:

You bought already?

Looks like massive selling is over... with company constant buyback... market is stabalising...

Anything u can get below 0.45 should be a good entry price.... (but still take note to stop loss 0.43)

In fact.. today totally nothing traded up till this time..

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01-Oct-2014 16:07

Seatrium / Sembmarine

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CKs doing the Limbo Rock. How low can it go?

bobochacha ( Date: 01-Oct-2014 12:25) Posted:

Yet another new 1-year low of $3.67 achieved today! Never fail to " impress" us with its lousy performance...

bobochacha ( Date: 23-Sep-2014 12:03) Posted:

So far 1 of the lousiest performance " Blue Chip" STI component stock... Making newer 1-year lows almost everyday...

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30-Sep-2014 12:03

Roxy-Pacific / Roxy Pacific

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Solid stock. Close to $1bil in property rev yet to be recognised.

Tipster789 ( Date: 30-Sep-2014 11:46) Posted:

used to , before their bonus issue , that time all the tycoons bought around $0.56

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29-Sep-2014 12:50

Vard / Vard Holdings

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x 0

More likely pump to be dump. Be careful case get sucked in.

Tidawave ( Date: 29-Sep-2014 11:25) Posted:

strong pull back?

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27-Sep-2014 18:58

China Fishery / China Fishery - Low PE

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From the following monthly update, which I forgot to check before writing my email below, the chance of an EN is 60-65% and it calls for a weak EN. The same site had earlier predicted a 70% chance of an EN (if I recall correctly). Anyway, this keeps us aware that an EN is a distinct possibility and may have some negative impact on CF and PA' s results. On the other hand, it is likely to have a positive effect on palm oil stocks in the later part of the year and into 2015.

EL NIÑ O/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)

DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION

issued by

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS

and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society

4 September 2014

ENSO Alert System Status: El Niñ o Watch

Synopsis: The chance of El Niñ o is at 60-65% during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter.

During August 2014, above-average sea surface temperatures (SST) continued across much of the

equatorial Pacific (Fig. 1). Most of the Niñ o indices warmed during the month with values of +0.5° C in

Niñ o-4, +0.4° C in Niñ o-3.4, +0.4° C in Niñ o-3, and +0.8° C in Niñ o-1+2 (Fig. 2). Subsurface heat content

anomalies (averaged between 180º -100º W) also increased during the month (Fig. 3) as above-average

subsurface temperatures developed across the central and east-central equatorial Pacific (Fig. 4). This

warming is associated with the downwelling phase of an equatorial oceanic Kelvin wave triggered in July

by low-level westerly wind anomalies. Westerly wind anomalies continued in the central and eastern part

of the basin early in August, but weakened by the end of the month. Enhanced easterly upper-level wind

anomalies have prevailed during much of the month, and the Southern Oscillation Index has been

negative. However, convective cloudiness remained generally near average over most of the region,

except for below average cloudiness observed across the central and western Pacific (Fig. 5). The lack of

a coherent atmospheric El Niñ o pattern and near-average SSTs in the central Pacific indicate a

continuation of ENSO-neutral.

Most of the models continue to predict El Niñ o to develop during September-November and to

continue into early 2015 (Fig. 6). A majority of models and the multi-model averages favor a weak El

Niñ o. At this time, the consensus of forecasters expects El Niñ o to emerge during September-October

and to peak at weak strength during the late fall and early winter (3-month values of the Niñ o-3.4 index

between 0.5° C and 0.9° C). The chance of El Niñ o is at 60-65% during the Northern Hemisphere fall and

winter (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome).

stockpicker ( Date: 27-Sep-2014 15:57) Posted:

Think it was said that El-Nino was behind us in July with a prediction that it would come back in October. Now it is 50%-60% sure about October El-Nino and not that it dropped from 70% to 60% and probability decreasing.

Qanghoo ( Date: 25-Sep-2014 20:46) Posted:

I' ve been following the possibility of an EN throughout the year not only because of the impact on PA and CF, but also on of CPO prices. The likelihood had dropped from 70% to 50-60%, and the arrival of EN had been rolled back from July to Oct or later. Furthermore, I believe the expectations are for a mild or moderate EN. So, may not impact CF as badly as feared.

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