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Is palm oil price adding pressure?  Palm oil price was high for awhile at the beginning of the yr.  But has fallen steadily over the last few mths.  Super' s price has tumbled spectacularly  over the last mths too, faster than palm oil price.  Analysts alone wld not be able to push up the price.  It takes two to tango.  CKs  must be  at work in some of these counters.  And I don' t think it' d be a wild guess that some ' analysts' are in collution to rig prices.
Sharemaker ( Date: 10-Nov-2014 14:34) Posted:
With the challenging conditions statements and no breakthrough products, it will be difficult to sustain its profitability given cost pressures on its raw materials especially palm oil. Current PE abt 27x and probably trend downwards. Price has moved too fast relative to its performance like OSIM, Breadtalk and a few other counters all hype-up by analyst, course lecturers and their students without any safety margin. Will wait for about 10x to be vested.
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As a cynic, I have this hypothesis.  With easy availability of sophisticated software, manipulators can simply work backwards, ie, put the cart before the horse so to speak, by creating the desired chart patterns and trade according to them to hoodwink unsuspecting investors and traders.  .
Kyoto2008 ( Date: 08-Nov-2014 02:47) Posted:
How not to notice this kind of strange behaviour, charting in my humble opinion throws out the unknown and known, ie insider traders as well as legitimate buyers who obtain the news earlier.
that' s the main reason some resort to charting and ignore fundamentals..  But I do think fundamenals cannot be ignored.
However, in my humble opinion, charting does have a significant role to play in determining the direction of the price movement of a stock.
Kyoto2008 ( Date: 08-Nov-2014 01:15) Posted:
Steady lah, most impt is when we see UE sail up effortlessly.     
I still think it' s the China properties that' s delaying the deal between OCBC and Charoen, as this is the greyest of grey areas in terms of valuation.
But I do think that OCBC won' t want to keep UE and would like to sell it off, so eventually, the deal will come through.
 
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I think it' s more political from the JCet' s side that they don' t want to include the Taiwan ops.
guiren ( Date: 07-Nov-2014 12:52) Posted:
more to gain if add in the Taiwan plants
grandjedi ( Date: 07-Nov-2014 11:57) Posted:
what is the downside risk if I go in now? And, the possible upside?
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Maybe some vultures are waiting to takeover cheap too.  Hoha.
halleluyah ( Date: 07-Nov-2014 11:11) Posted:
Guess Temasek also waiting fr cheap cheap to collect to average....lol.
earlybird14 ( Date: 07-Nov-2014 09:55) Posted:
Wait for Temasek to come in... Temasek shall not be quiet for too long.
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This seem to reinforce the need for foreign talent.  Look at the recent performance of some of the GLCs and we ought to be very concerned.  So, the qn is what' s wrong with us.  And paradoxically while we are doing so well as a nation, helmed proudly by locals, why is it that lower down there is such a dearth of local talent?
guiren ( Date: 07-Nov-2014 10:51) Posted:
We talk about local talents, we talk about bring in talents,  we cannot turn around Stat ??  die,, die we have to sell at loss 
Qanghoo ( Date: 07-Nov-2014 10:45) Posted:
More fundamental than this is whether they are selling at a loss and, if so, how to ensure that money entrusted is well protected?    I remember the previous takeover offer was at 1.88 which I did not accept.  Even with the capital reduction and return of money to s/holders (if my memory serves me correctly it was funded by debt) does the current  proposed sale represent a loss?
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Read the cks' minds first.  My obsrvation is that when  a counter gets dumped, it continues in freefall mode with no apparent end.  Quite a few have suffered this fate in recent wks.
hem2998 ( Date: 07-Nov-2014 10:34) Posted:
tempting to buy but HEAVY VOLUME and DOWN is never a good time to touch.
whatever it is, insiders always first to know and react.
i' ll wait for volume to drop first and px to stabilise first.
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More fundamental than this is whether they are selling at a loss and, if so, how to ensure that money entrusted is well protected?    I remember the previous takeover offer was at 1.88 which I did not accept.  Even with the capital reduction and return of money to s/holders (if my memory serves me correctly it was funded by debt) does the current  proposed sale represent a loss?
guiren ( Date: 07-Nov-2014 10:34) Posted:
Yes, all Singaporean talk about " Care " , TH should care about our feelings, we supported the local electronics industries, we lost in Chartered, now you want us to lose again ,, 
sgjames ( Date: 07-Nov-2014 09:57) Posted:
Some think TH eager to sell off cuz  Stats has been suffering years of losses. But i think they wont accept the offer - politics at play.
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Maybe a small premium, but not too much, I' d imagine.  Perhaps share may trade around 60c+- abit.
SOONEST ( Date: 06-Nov-2014 17:00) Posted:
Eh bro.. read carefoolly.. its say for illustrative purposes only... to
fix xchange rate when px is finalised...definitely NOT 45 cents...Th
so stupid meh??? After spending billions sell at such ridiculus px???
HVRRVH ( Date: 06-Nov-2014 16:36) Posted:
45.2 cents per share but not include Taiwan' s subsidiaries, which valued at 47 cents per share. So how? Good or bad?
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Cheap cheap only, lah.  Excluding Taiwan ops (which will not be included in the purchase by JCet), offer of US$780 mil.
Qanghoo ( Date: 06-Nov-2014 16:28) Posted:
Announcement out on SGX wetside.
foucs69 ( Date: 06-Nov-2014 16:23) Posted:
sure bo...............if really have.......knn i will give my vote to ?A? coming GE ah
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Announcement out on SGX wetside.
foucs69 ( Date: 06-Nov-2014 16:23) Posted:
sure bo...............if really have.......knn i will give my vote to ?A? coming GE ah
BigCannonFairy ( Date: 06-Nov-2014 16:17) Posted:
Target=> > > > > $1.64
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Cover what backside.  Always cover wrong side anyway!
SOONEST ( Date: 06-Nov-2014 16:02) Posted:
At 63 cents Th can't even cover backside. I xpect at least 88 or 90 cents...
hosayboh ( Date: 06-Nov-2014 15:22) Posted:
how many lots u got? Deal 0.63 
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Hi Brothers n Sisters, a word of caution.  Don' t be over hopeful hor. Coc you cld be disappointed, very disappointed.  Of cours I too hope it' s really 1.30 cos then I really tiok beh piow.  But I dare not dream that such will be the case.  Cheers.
Alecduric ( Date: 06-Nov-2014 16:12) Posted:
If its $1.30 its way overpriced...i will be satisfied with 88 cents
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Shockingly good.  Which chng kay doing charity?  Push down some more lah.  Go 4.50 OK?   A lot of people waiting to hop.
kenzo1975 ( Date: 06-Nov-2014 14:37) Posted:
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Kui Lui?
hosayboh ( Date: 06-Nov-2014 14:22) Posted:
Good News Merger
星 科 金 朋 已 於 3日 在 新 加 坡 交 易 所 公 告 股 票 暫 停 交 易 , 江 蘇 長 電 也 在 4日 於 中 國 上 海 證 券 交 易 所 公 告 , 指 出 公 司 正 在 籌 劃 重 大 事 項 , 鑒 於 該 事 項 存 在 重 大 不 確 定 性 , 為 保 證 公 平 資 訊 披 露 , 維 護 投 資 者 利 益 , 避 免 造 成 公 司 股 價 異 常 波 動 , 公 司 申 請 股 票 自 4日 起 停 牌 , 並 於 股 票 停 牌 之 日 起 的 5個 工 作 日 內 ( 含 停 牌 當 日 ) 公 告 並 恢 復 交 易 。
新 加 坡 國 家 投 資 公 司 淡 馬 錫 控 股 ( Temasek Holdings Ltd.) 是 星 科 金 朋 主 要 股 東 , 淡 馬 錫 持 股 星 科 金 朋 比 重 約 84%, 平 均 持 股 成 本 約 新 加 坡 幣 1.3元 。 傳 出 江 蘇 長 電 將 以 10億 美 元 ( 約 305億 元 台 幣 ) 購 併 星 科 金 朋 , 不 過 據 業 內 人 士 指 出 , 該 金 額 是 錯 誤 的 。
星 科 金 朋 先 前 成 為 兩 岸 封 測 廠 競 逐 購 併 的 對 象 , 不 過 最 後 由 中 國 封 測 廠 積 極 出 手 , 江 蘇 長 電 表 態 擠 下 天 水 華 天 , 由 於 中 國 政 府 在 當 中 扮 演 全 力 支 持 的 角 色 , 若 江 蘇 長 電 購 併 星 科 金 朋 , 不 排 除 江 蘇 長 電 將 取 得 絕 對 控 股 主 導 權 , 星 科 金 朋 可 能 從 新 加 坡 下 市 。
中 國 政 府 積 極 扶 植 本 土 半 導 體 產 業 供 應 鏈 , 其 中 在 封 測 領 域 , 也 鼓 勵 企 業 兼 併 重 組 和 產 業 集 中 度 , 加 速 發 展 先 進 封 測 技 術 , 也 成 為 江 蘇 長 電 購 併 星 科 金 朋 一 大 推 手
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Thx a lot, brother for providing the info.  So, today already fourth day.  No gahment or what?
henryhiew ( Date: 06-Nov-2014 11:09) Posted:
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Part II Trading Halt and Voluntary Suspension
 
 
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1302
 
 
(1) The Exchange may at any time grant a trading halt to enable the issuer to disclose material information or suspend trading of the listed securities of an issuer at the request of the issuer. The Exchange is not required to act on the request.
(2) The trading halt cannot exceed 3 market days or such short extension as the Exchange agrees.
(3) A trading halt may be changed to a suspension by the Exchange at any time.
 
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William Hill may want to offer some odds.
XTC855 ( Date: 06-Nov-2014 10:32) Posted:
look like a recovery stock with prospects..
Qanghoo ( Date: 06-Nov-2014 10:08) Posted:
This one keep changing business.  One day sure hit jackpot one,  macham play 4D.
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Wld anyone know the actual rule.  I thought after one day halt must announce already.  I may be wrong.  Maybe max two days.  How can after four days still dumb.
HVRRVH ( Date: 06-Nov-2014 10:13) Posted:
yup making people guessing no ends. just have to wait,   hopefully good news. 
SOONEST ( Date: 06-Nov-2014 10:07) Posted:
| 4days alreadi...how come still no annoucement? |
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This one keep changing business.  One day sure hit jackpot one,  macham play 4D.
XTC855 ( Date: 06-Nov-2014 10:06) Posted:
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Alamak, this kind of reply so standard one.  Arrow here, arrow there.  In the end no result one.  What' s happening to the Police investigation of the SingPost case?
Lucky03 ( Date: 06-Nov-2014 08:04) Posted:
SGX has replied me that they have forwarded my concerns and feedback to their relevant regulatory department for their attention. Join me to urge them to monitor NOL and seek clarification and timely disclosure on the sale of APL Logistic as we can' t always be reading updates only from newswire as well as more timely update of their business condition to avoid surprises such as the impact of the severe congestion at Southern California. It is likely that insiders had already anticipated the impact to sell down the stock over last 2 mths. If the congestion problem eases or they have found a way around it as they shared as their action plan to reduce the impact, likewise, insiders may have early intelligence again. 
MetalTrader3 ( Date: 06-Nov-2014 07:36) Posted:
Dear NOL Mgmt,
My advise:
- APL Logistics (1 billion) is too little. NOL should aim for 1.2 to 1 5 billion. It will be best to release as IPO to enable flexibility & able to retain business by only selling 40%.
- For APL Shipping, a need to sell more vessels to manage undercapacity. |
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Among Ang Mohs also lots of hypocrites.  I, for one, wldn' t trust what they say.  So many Ang Moh  banks caught for currency rigging.  And I always assert that there are lots of stock price manipulation going on too.  Only that nothing has come to the fore (yet).
I wld also want to be guarded against sensationalising of report and reviews.  A lot of times, information is deliberated slanted for reason/s best known to the writers and analysts.
At least for Sembmarine, there is a clarification from the horses' mouth.  But what I take issue with is why didn' t the coy come out with it until someone asks.  Is this the way to engage investors and an example of transparency from a GLC?
I shd also mention that the coy' s press release yesterday mentioned that there is high utilisation rate at it' s four drydocks in Tuas.  But whether it' s squeezing margins to procure work is a qn mark.
 
ozone2002 ( Date: 06-Nov-2014 09:37) Posted:
Last:3.6     Vol:1797k     -0.08
dipped below 3.6 already.. dip in prices present a buying opportunity for value investors
gd luck dyodd
ozone2002 ( Date: 04-Nov-2014 09:27) Posted:
Buy on dip gd luck dyodd, still gd value, 13x FY15 PE & 4% div yield
Sembcorp Marine (SembMarine) secured a contract worth USD240m to
build a Pacific Class 400 jack-up rig for Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ,
with Japan Drilling Co (JDC) as the lessor and operator of the asset. Its
YTD order wins are SGD4.2bn, on track to meet our target of SGD4.5bn.
Valuations of 11-13x FY14-16F P/E on trough earnings appear attractive.
Maintain BUY with SGD4.50TP based on SOP (a 24.3% upside).
Good order momentum. SembMarine secured a USD240m contract to
build a Pacific Class 400 (PC400) jack-up rig, provisionally named
Hakuryu 14, for BOT Lease Co., Ltd. (BOTL), a leasing company of
Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ (8306 JP, NR). The rig is scheduled for
delivery by Oct 2016 and will be leased and operated by JDC (1606 JP,
NR).
High-specification jack-up rigs still in demand. Since the launch of
the PC400 in 2010, 18 units have been ordered with nine units delivered
and operating in various countries. This contract marks the second
PC400 jack-up rig that SembMarine is building for BOTL. The first unit,
Hakuryu 12, is nearing completion, with delivery scheduled in Jan 2015.
These rigs are capable of operating in 400 feet of water and drilling highpressure,
high-temperature wells to depths of 35,000 feet and come with
accommodations for 150 persons.
Stronger contract wins YTD vs Keppel. SembMarine&rsquo s YTD order wins
stand at SGD4.2bn, well on track to meet our SGD4.5bn target. We note
that it has actually outpaced key rival Keppel (KEP SP, BUY, TP:
SGD12.60), who has SGD4.0bn of order wins so far, whereas its share
price has underperformed Keppel&rsquo s on a relative basis.
Time for (re-)entry. SembMarine has fallen 21% in the last 12 months
due to potential delays over the delivery of its drillship to Brazil and
recently on oil prices. Its shares are now trading at 6-8x EV/EBITDA and
11-13x P/E for FY14-16F, on what are basically trough earnings.
Forecast dividend yields are now topping 4%. We believe most of the
fears have been priced in and current valuations present an attractive
entry point. Our SOP-valuation pegs shipyard earnings at a mid-cycle
16x for a SGD4.50TP, implying a 24.3% upside.
Forecasts and Valuations Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14F Dec-15F Dec-16F
Total turnover (SGDm) 4,430 5,526 6,148 6,801 6,766
Reported net profit (SGDm) 538 556 574 631 671
Recurring net profit (SGDm) 541 553 574 631 671
Recurring net profit growth (%) (28.3) 2.3 3.7 9.9 6.4
Recurring EPS (SGD) 0.26 0.27 0.27 0.30 0.32
DPS (SGD) 0.13 0.13 0.14 0.15 0.16
Recurring P/E (x) 14.0 13.7 13.2 12.0 11.3
P/B (x) 3.10 2.82 2.54 2.29 2.07
P/CF (x) 36.2 8.1 17.0 9.0 9.1
Dividend Yield (%) 3.6 3.6 3.9 4.1 4.4
EV/EBITDA (x) 7.48 7.14 7.65 6.74 6.00
Return on average equity (%) 22.2 21.7 20.3 20.1 19.3
Net debt to equity (%) net cash net cash net cash net cash net cash
Our vs consensus EPS (adjusted) (%) (6.4) (5.1) 0.9
Source: Company data, OSK-DMG
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