ShareJunction - Member Posts

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I' m just trying to understand: If there' s an offer on the table for 45 (or there abouts), and still with some crumbs left, why wld anyone want to sell for less. Must be people trying to press down to collect on the cheap.

RoundRound ( Date: 17-Nov-2014 12:09) Posted:

Today is dumping ground day for Stats....44 and selling down. Not a good sign.

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Golden Agri or Going Ugly?

sun233 ( Date: 17-Nov-2014 10:12) Posted:

What did i tell ya............

sun233 ( Date: 13-Nov-2014 13:40) Posted:

Don' t think so............maybe 0.445 - 0.45

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Sometimes, when people tender low not due to mispricing, they still tell the world it' s cost overrun when they don' t make money!

calvino ( Date: 16-Nov-2014 22:58) Posted:

Seriously, they really need to look deep into their cost estimation b4 tendering their projects. No point having millions dollars of contracts on-hand, and cost of sales are greater than the revenue at the end of the day.

Qanghoo ( Date: 14-Nov-2014 20:49) Posted:

I understand the merits of what you say. But price as an evaluation and award criterion is still widely priactised, especially in public-sector projects. Coys facing difficulties may have little choice but price their tenders to win and sacrifice margins in doing so. Some do it knowing they may not make much, or may even lose money. But they may do it to cover some of their fixed costs. Also, many coys with billion $ order books are struggling. I' m not saying it' s gonna to happen to YN, but may be shd not be over-optimistic.

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Thx. That was very informative. Prior to 2013, shale wasn' t a part of the equation yet. So, this time, the period of adjustment may be longer, and ultimately prices may not reach previous peaks although I' d venture a guess that oil price at US100 wld be here to stay in the longer term, notwithstanding that the US may become an exporter in maybe two-three yrs. Geo-politics in play wlid also likely cause prices to shoot up, especially in times of instability in the Middle East (eg, if the Iran nuclear talks fail and Israel threatens a preemptive strike). Anyway, I' m no expert. Just a layman' s kopitiam think-aloud.

RedEye1811 ( Date: 14-Nov-2014 19:07) Posted:

Since 2011 there has been 2 crude oil bear markets and another that came real close. First was 5/11 - 10/11 when prices WTI declined 31%, second from 2/12 - 6/12 with decline of 27% and near miss 9/13 - 1/14 when fell 18%. This bear currently the most significant since WFC when oil fell from USD140 to around USD 40. The average decline of oil bear market excluding WFC period is about 33% and length is about 130-150 days so current bear market is close in terms of fall and duraction. So if follow those averages the current bear market could soon hit bottom.

Qanghoo ( Date: 14-Nov-2014 18:14) Posted:

When did the last oilly bear visit us? Abt four yrs ago? But prices recovered soon enough. This will replay itself. Maybe last one yr or so? As a electricity consumer and pt commuter, I' d love to see prices stay down forever. But that' ll be wistful thinking. And I always believe that if prices go down too low to be profitable, then supply will definitely adjust itself and the up cycle will kick in. Trouble is these, days, we are not being confronted by fear alone. Worse is people who know the dynamics use scare tactics to creat fear in others for their own gains.

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I understand the merits of what you say. But price as an evaluation and award criterion is still widely priactised, especially in public-sector projects. Coys facing difficulties may have little choice but price their tenders to win and sacrifice margins in doing so. Some do it knowing they may not make much, or may even lose money. But they may do it to cover some of their fixed costs. Also, many coys with billion $ order books are struggling. I' m not saying it' s gonna to happen to YN, but may be shd not be over-optimistic.

HugoLee ( Date: 14-Nov-2014 18:55) Posted:

Qanghoo,

In consideration of awarding contract to a supplier, the client will always evaulate the financial strength and stability of the contractor. If the supplier fail, the client also suffer. So I don' t understand what you meant by clients loading contracts to YN at fire-sale prices. Also, YN has over 300m book-order. Do they need more sales to survive? No. What YN need is to convert those sales to delivery and payment.

My 2-cents.

Qanghoo ( Date: 14-Nov-2014 17:52) Posted:

YONGNAM REPORTS LOSS OF S$8.4 MILLION FOR 3QFY2014

Price will crash next wk. May present buying opportunity at 18-19c. But will it become another Midas? Are clients loading contracts to them at fire-sale prices? That may be to worry.

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Tthx for sharing. It' s important for us to be able to put the picture in perspective. A lot of times, we see all sorts of posts or comments that may not be accurate. It may not have been intentional, but this might inadvertently, give fellow forumers an over-optimistic or over pessimistic picture of a stock/s. So, fellow forumers who come forward to alert others we shd appreciate.

Jimmykohkk ( Date: 14-Nov-2014 19:27) Posted:

For the quarter under review, the Group recorded S$10.1 million in other income compared with S$2.9 million in 2QFY2014. The increase in other income arose primarily from gains realised from the divestment of Hup Hin Transport and from the disposal of property, plant and equipment.

One off gain only. Without this one off gain, profit not much. Last FY one off gain was only S$2.9 million, so if u work it back, i think net profit from continuing operations dips.

Secret_Squirrel ( Date: 14-Nov-2014 19:17) Posted:

Tat Hong: 2QFY2015 Net Profit Rises 40% To S$11.5 Million.

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When did the last oilly bear visit us? Abt four yrs ago? But prices recovered soon enough. This will replay itself. Maybe last one yr or so? As a electricity consumer and pt commuter, I' d love to see prices stay down forever. But that' ll be wistful thinking. And I always believe that if prices go down too low to be profitable, then supply will definitely adjust itself and the up cycle will kick in. Trouble is these, days, we are not being confronted by fear alone. Worse is people who know the dynamics use scare tactics to creat fear in others for their own gains.

nqing87 ( Date: 14-Nov-2014 17:23) Posted:

nothing we can do about what ppl think.. we do know that those shallow water players serving the production stage in E& P cycle shouldnt be affected that much, even if oil goes to 60+ bucks.. only when oil really go that low, such that oil companies considering to even cut production for shallow water, then will shallow water players be affected.. but market comprise of lots of different kind of ppl.. alot of ppl are just common folks uncle & aunties, who probably know nothing much or dont bother to know.. ppl just associate oil price drop=every oil & gas counters drop.. we can be rational or theoretically correct in our thinking, but market a lot of times are irrational.. just have to observe the market & dont run against them..

junction ( Date: 14-Nov-2014 11:38) Posted:

I must disagree with you that oil price down means Nam Cheong down. In fact if you follow the price chart of Nam Cheong for the last few months, the price has appreciated and they have won more contracts. Your comments better suits counters like Sembawang Marine and Keppel Corp which specialise in deep water rigs, unlike Nam Cheong.

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YONGNAM REPORTS LOSS OF S$8.4 MILLION FOR 3QFY2014

Price will crash next wk. May present buying opportunity at 18-19c. But will it become another Midas? Are clients loading contracts to them at fire-sale prices? That may be to worry.

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The Sauds may not want to support price. But it' d not be in their interest to engage in a price war for long for sure. Otherwise, where are they gonna find the money to finance their development projects. And don' t forget, the royal family n sheikhs have been living it up. So, will they start a price war at their own fooly? Also, do bear in mind that the country does have a fair bit of undercurrent social/political issues. I suspect part of the reason/s they are able to keep it relatively peaceful is the petrol $. If that is eroded, the monarchy' s own existence will be at much greater risk. Finally don' t forget also that their petrol $ has enabled them to keep up the billion $ military spending to maintain the relative stability of the Middle East. Imagine what wld happen if the military budget gets squeezed because they themselves foolishly torpedo the oil market. Before they force Iran out as a Middle East power, they' d probably annihilate themselves.

So, while the current dynamics are causing a slide in oil price, I, for one, definitely do not share the theories being expounded that SA is forcing oil price down to win market share .... Anyway, how many yers of reserves do they still have to afford the luxury of flooding the market in this manner? The newly empowered Americans with their shale probably in greater reserve, may be in a stronger position to have a greater say on prices in future.

I do humbly present my contrarian arguements.

victortan ( Date: 13-Nov-2014 14:08) Posted:

read this from fool.. http://www.fool.sg/2014/10/23/are-oil-gas-related-companies-dead-with-tumbling-oil-prices/

if the cost for US is US58$ to 70$, then if Saudi really want them to close shop. then oil got to be 65$, then US producer all dies.If it really go to 65$ then shallow water also will get hit hard.

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They not only fleece people in the stores. By actively buying back their shares, they probably give the impression that it' s value. I got involved in the cheap sale of the yr - bought 55c, sold 45c. A few days ago, thought of going in again at 44c since coy kept supporting. Thank God I resisted.

Qanghoo ( Date: 13-Nov-2014 11:19) Posted:

CEO can continue to support the price all the way down to 30c maybe.

Goods not cheap.(but they keep telling it' s lowest price). I recently place an online order for one of their items. Fortunately they later said the item was out of stock. Managed to get the same item shortly after that from Robinson at a lower price!

After fleecing people here and in Malaysia now go to Indonesia. Hope people there are wary of them.

super486 ( Date: 13-Nov-2014 11:09) Posted:

I have too many complaint to say after i shop in Courts, but i always stop myself to do that, because i buy too much Courts stock.

I really think they should change the management team, whole SEA economic is so good in past few years, but Courts is killing money everyday.

Courts was Delisting before, or they plan to use up all our money, then do it again? That is too rascally.

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CEO can continue to support the price all the way down to 30c maybe.

Goods not cheap.(but they keep telling it' s lowest price). I recently place an online order for one of their items. Fortunately they later said the item was out of stock. Managed to get the same item shortly after that from Robinson at a lower price!

After fleecing people here and in Malaysia now go to Indonesia. Hope people there are wary of them.

super486 ( Date: 13-Nov-2014 11:09) Posted:

I have too many complaint to say after i shop in Courts, but i always stop myself to do that, because i buy too much Courts stock.

I really think they should change the management team, whole SEA economic is so good in past few years, but Courts is killing money everyday.

Courts was Delisting before, or they plan to use up all our money, then do it again? That is too rascally.

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Looks encouraging. Hope they are not sacrificing margins though, bearing in mind that they' d not won many deals of late.

Terminator4ever ( Date: 12-Nov-2014 17:33) Posted:

Yongnam secured changi jewel project worth S$93million

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Thx for pointing us to the encouraging news. At least we are less worried that the squeeze is due to expected poor results.

stockpicker ( Date: 12-Nov-2014 17:37) Posted:

Got mixed up. For Copeinca, Jun-Sept is 3rd Qrt and for CF, it is 4th Qrt. Copeinca used to report good result in 3rd Qrt.

According to MSICeres, this bio year from Nov13 to Oct 14 has 40% more catch than last bio year from Nov 12 to Oct 13.

http://www.msiceres.com/MR/MR2014-42-80977842.pdf

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Sympathy with UEnvt. So, may be will rise further?

leemakkie ( Date: 12-Nov-2014 17:11) Posted:

hope to see $1.00 soon

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This upcoming result is the 4Q and FY result. If bad, 1c dividend also burnt. Catch before Aug also below agerage, partly mitigated by rocketing fishmeal price. They might also have bought from third parties, which will likely impact margin.

stockpicker ( Date: 12-Nov-2014 16:49) Posted:

There is a time lag of about 2 months to turn Anchovy catch to fishmeal sales and final payment, considering shipment to China will take roughly one month,

There were no catch since August but the coming result was for June to Sept period. It will be the fouth quarter result that will look real bad due to no catch from

August.

Qanghoo ( Date: 12-Nov-2014 16:35) Posted:

Trading on insider info? Result likely to be bad cos of low biomass and EN. May be making loss. Result shd be out in abt 2 wks.

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Trading on insider info? Result likely to be bad cos of low biomass and EN. May be making loss. Result shd be out in abt 2 wks.

stockpicker ( Date: 12-Nov-2014 16:14) Posted:

CF lost over 0.015 or 4% just now to 0.335 with one small BB throwing 340 lots at 0.34 at one go. There were no big BB trading for the past 10 days. Look like this BB knew what was in the result to be announced. In the past, the BBs would push the price up before and then then sell down after the result. This time, they pushed down the price before the result announcement. Looks fishy especially when it approach the last low of 0.32 on Aug 2013. Making a double bottom?

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Wld anyone remember. I seem to recall that NOL IPO (in 1980/81?) was $4.00? Equivalent of > $10.00 today?

Merger ( Date: 12-Nov-2014 13:43) Posted:

Sad to say, SHIPPING is a very very Risky Business.

That' s why some Shipping Tycoons in Singapore shift focus and go into hotels and properties and smart move is : sell vessels at high prices and lease them at low prices. very good foresight.

if not wrong, NOL IPO was $ 1 ? Now is $0.78 ? SAD. If Same $ is put into say Singapore property & hotels counters years ago, returns would be different.

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No need to look at London lah. Trust Mr GE and PTC are very proactive and managing the PT fare system admirably in an oil-price down cycle.

infoshare ( Date: 12-Nov-2014 15:10) Posted:

Pro_active Mayor of London ,

Mayor Boris Johnson said: &ldquo This fares package delivers on my commitment to address the needs of flexible and part-time workers. By overhauling our fares structure we will put money back into the pockets of hundreds of thousands of hardworking people who make such a vital contribution to London&rsquo s economy. Freezing overall fares in real terms for next year allows us to hold down the cost of travel, while maintaining our vital programme of modernisation. This will ensure that the capital remains a competitive global city and a fantastic place to live

http://www.standard.co.uk/news/transport/london-underground-fares-shakeup-parttime-workers-to-save-hundreds-of-pounds-under-new-tube-fares-system-9852935.html

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Like the taxi driver who complains that if he takes a passenger to Tuas, he' ll probably have to return with an empty cab!

Merger ( Date: 12-Nov-2014 15:13) Posted:

why i said Shipping is a very RISKY BUSINESS :

cos it is almost like a ' lose-lose' situation, allow me to elaborate

when economy is down, trade is down, not enough cargo to carry , so even if oil prices low ~ so what

when economy is up, trade up, lots of cargo, but oil prices up ~ eats into the profits.

AND nowadays, it is like 1 way traffic Say China -> US lots of laden, US -> China Mostly Empty Repo

Airlines still better than Shippping thus.

Msport ( Date: 12-Nov-2014 15:03) Posted:

Fuel cost drop so much still CMI

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Those thinking of entering at this level, do take note of a few names, ie, Super, OSIM, Pac Radiance, Ezion, etc. Just don' t let the parcel land with you when the music stops.

domanic ( Date: 10-Nov-2014 19:56) Posted:

exactly .. perfect stock for shorting in future lol!

HVRRVH ( Date: 10-Nov-2014 17:29) Posted:

Giddy liao, too high too fast. Can't believe the price was push up 10 lots, 20 lots, 5 lots... If want to sell 100 lots price will go down by 10 cents