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28-Oct-2014 09:46

Shen Yao / ThinkEnv name change to Liongold Corp

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Lion is sinking again today. Is the BB trying to push down to collect more, or they are dumping due to some insider news? The drop for the past few weeks are really very drastic.

Blumont was pushed down previously to 0.023 before rebounding back to 0.07.

The toughest part about ABL is that it' s so tough to gauge their true values ....

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23-Oct-2014 09:25

TIH / Transpac

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It' s holding well at 1.28. The warrant volume is 14000.

Those who are investing in warrant, just take note that the exercise price will change from 1.28 to 2.28 in mid November. Don' t buy too many .... with the anticipation that you might need to exercise it.

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21-Oct-2014 09:45

TIH / Transpac

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Hi Bro Edwinjup, are you vested in TIH? what' s your thought of this company? Does it have the potential to go further from the fundamental perspective?

edwinjup ( Date: 21-Oct-2014 09:42) Posted:

Do note...after 19.nov...if i am.not wrong...excercise.of wrt.become $2.28......so those.wan to sell.. sell around that period....checj with ur broker for.details

nngeeh ( Date: 21-Oct-2014 09:30) Posted:

If i recalled correctly, the share hit 1.75 this year. If BB is able to push it back - say 1.5 by early Nov, the jump in the warrant is 30x.

It' s worth the risk ....

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21-Oct-2014 09:30

TIH / Transpac

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If i recalled correctly, the share hit 1.75 this year. If BB is able to push it back - say 1.5 by early Nov, the jump in the warrant is 30x.

It' s worth the risk ....

nngeeh ( Date: 21-Oct-2014 09:20) Posted:

9000 warrant snapped up this morning. If the BB pushed down TIH to collect the warrant (which needs to be converted by mid Nov), we might see them pushing it above 1.28 before mid Nov.

Actually, even after the warrant exercise price have been adjusted to $2+ (which will be out of money), the current warrant price of $0.005 is still considered low as the warranty expiration date is not due until 2017.

edwinjup ( Date: 21-Oct-2014 08:56) Posted:

They need funds...need people.to convert their wrt in nov......so maybe will try to make it.more attractive....maybe..onl

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21-Oct-2014 09:20

TIH / Transpac

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edwinjup ( Date: 21-Oct-2014 08:56) Posted:

They need funds...need people.to convert their wrt in nov......so maybe will try to make it.more attractive....maybe..only

nngeeh ( Date: 17-Oct-2014 19:01) Posted:

Interesting .... the volume is just 58 lots, but the price can jump 0.075 cents. If it continue to recover (and if you look at the queue depth, there are not many of sellers), it can easily go back above $1.30 cents.

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17-Oct-2014 19:01

TIH / Transpac

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14-Oct-2014 18:14

Jubilee Ind / Jubilee

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Hi Bro edwinjup, Are you still holding Jubilee' s share? What' s your thought on the NAV of this company?

edwinjup ( Date: 14-Oct-2014 18:08) Posted:

Can find at sgx.com.......1 rights share cum free.wrt @$0.06c for every 2 mother shares......
Think can ignore the right unless bb pump up.....as mother share traded below.0.06c

iceboiler ( Date: 14-Oct-2014 17:58) Posted:

Hi, can someone advise me on the rights cum warrent issue?

may i know this rights issue affect existing shareholders? what is the ratio (e.g. 1 rights for every 5 shares, cannot find in any of the announcement) and the issue price @ $0.06?

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11-Oct-2014 12:23

Jubilee Ind / Jubilee

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I just went through the half yearly report (12 Aug 2014)

- NAV : 13.29, Cash per share : 0.08 cents, Debt per share: 0.005 cents

Even with the rights exercise of 0.06 per share, the share price should be 0.10. If it is based on pure cash (minus debt), after the rights exercise (and if all share holder exercise the warrant), the share price should still be 0.068 per share (pure cash). The current price doesn' t make any sense. Is the current deal with WE holding really that bad?

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08-Sep-2014 17:34

China New Town / China New Town Development

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Hi Bro, Could you share how do we arbitrage? Do you buy the share in SGX, and short sell in HK, and wait for the gap to be filled up?

Buffet4king ( Date: 08-Sep-2014 17:10) Posted:

Undervalued. Today closing price = 0.065. HK stock price = 0.425 = 0.07 SGD. Arbitrage opportunity.

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08-Sep-2014 09:16

OCBC Bank / OCBC

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And u r waiting to scoop it up, right? :)

edwinjup ( Date: 08-Sep-2014 09:02) Posted:

Like these..better sell.ur rights...lol

traders ( Date: 08-Sep-2014 09:00) Posted:

From Tree Original

Note - Price catalyst

12-month price target: S$8.20 based on a Price to Book methodology.
Catalyst: potential further pressure on capital ratios and further dilution

OCBC is seeking to raise S$3.37 billion via a rights issue to existing shareholders after its acquisition of Wing Hang Bank (WHB). According to its announcement, OCBC will sell up to 440 million new shares at the ratio of one new share for every eight shares held, with an offer price of $7.65 each. This price translates into a 25% discount from the bank&rsquo s closing price of $10.20 last Friday.

Closing at $10.20 yesterday, OCBC ended the day unchanged and is currently trading 4.7% above its 50-day moving average of $9.74.

Macquarie Equities Research (MER) has issued a report on OCBC yesterday morning with a 12 month target price of $8.20. Here are some excerpts from the report.

OCBC announced a rights issue on 18 August.
The 2 key questions are:
- Will this close the full capital shortfall after the WHB deal on a Basel 3 fully loaded basis?
- Does this remove the risks of further earnings dilution?
- The answer to both questions is No in MER&rsquo s view.

Impact

Size of the rights issue above expectations &hellip Gross proceeds of S$ 3.4bn from the rights issue are above market expectations of S$ 2-3bn.
&hellip but still not enough in MER&rsquo s view. In the announcement, no pro-forma capital ratios were disclosed by OCBC. MER estimates the pro-forma CET1 ratio post WHB (fully loaded Basel 3) to increase from 8.3% to 10.1% (2014E). This is still a S$3.5bn pro-forma capital shortfall to 12% CET1 based on MER&rsquo s estimates. DBS and UOB are comfortably above 12% already.

Earnings and target price revision

No change. MER&rsquo s current forecast and target price are before the rights issue.

Price catalyst

12-month price target: S$8.20 based on a Price to Book methodology.
Catalyst: potential further pressure on capital ratios and further dilution

Action and recommendation

MER maintains their Underperform recommendation on OCBC.
The S$ 3.4bn rights issue addresses around half of the pro-forma capital shortfall in MER&rsquo s view. Little transparency and disclosure on pro-forma capital ratios after the WHB deal are another reason for MER to remain guarded.

Source: Macquarie Research

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05-Sep-2014 09:40

TIH / Transpac

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Hi Bro, with Temasek in the picture, won't it increase the profile of TIH?

edwinjup ( Date: 05-Sep-2014 09:15) Posted:

Tih need funds to expand.....at this price...who wan to convert their.wrt......pls cook.and fry

hp3000 ( Date: 04-Sep-2014 21:12) Posted:

Had been picking up bit by bit on it low.

Hope to see it success.

TIH LIMITED
(the &ldquo Company&rdquo or &ldquo TIH&rdquo )
(Incorporated in the Republic of Singapore)
Unique Entity Number. 199400941K
ANNOUNCEMENT
The Board wishes to inform our shareholders that the transformation of TIH Limited (the
&ldquo Company&rdquo , together with its subsidiaries, the &ldquo Group&rdquo ) is progressing as planned. The
Company seeks to expand its business beyond private equity and venture capital investments
to include special situation investment opportunities with listed and private companies. The
Company shall broaden and deepen its strategic relationships with significant market players
in the Greater China Region and Southeast Asia in order to improve deal sourcing and asset
management capabilities. The Company will strategically acquire non-core assets from its
partners and help create value for all stakeholders in these positions. In some cases, judicious
leverage maybe employed to enhance capital return on equity. The Company intends to work
closely with our strategic co-investors to help monitor and create exits for such investments.
Through the process, the Company aims to provide steady dividend return to our shareholders
in the medium to long term time horizon.
As part of this initiative, Killian Court Pte Ltd (a wholly owned subsidiary of the Company
(&ldquo Killian&rdquo )) and its wholly-owned subsidiary TIHT Investment Holdings Pte. Ltd. (&ldquo TIHT&rdquo )
have entered into a Share Purchase Agreement dated 4 September 2014 with Republic
Technologies Pte Ltd (" Republic" ) and Baytree Investments (Mauritius) Pte Ltd (" Baytree" )
for TIHT to acquire a portfolio of assets, that includes minority stakes in Mitsui Life
Insurance Company Limited and CEI Contract Manufacturing Limited, for a total
consideration of SGD 129 million (&ldquo Consideration&rdquo ). The Consideration is payable partly in
cash and partly by way of financing and an issue of shares in TIHT. Post and subject to
completion of the acquisition, TIHT will be held as to 55% by Killian and 45% by Republic.
Both Baytree and Republic are indirect wholly-owned subsidiaries of Temasek Holdings
(Private) Limited. The Company shall work closely with Republic, Mitsui Life and CEI to
enhance value for our shareholders in the future. The transaction is conducted in the
Company' s ordinary course of business and therefore does not require the approval of the
shareholders of the Company under Chapter 10 of the Listing Manual.
The transaction does not have a significant impact on the Company&rsquo s working capital and
gearing.
None of the Directors or controlling shareholders of the Company has any interest, direct or
indirect, (other than through their respective shareholdings in the Company) in the above
transaction.
BY ORDER OF THE BOARD
Tham Shook Han
Company Secretary
4 September 2014

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26-May-2014 16:52

Figtree / Figtree

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Agreed. Huge buy queue at 0.24, and huge sell queue at 0.25. Collecting at 0.245 where most trades are done.

halleluyah ( Date: 26-May-2014 16:48) Posted:

i see accumulation going on

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24-May-2014 21:06

Figtree / Figtree

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I think the ssh wouldn' t want to loan out for someone to shoot down their own share just to get only small percentage from the loan, but their total holding had gone down by almost 50%. This wouldn' t not release their own holding as the loan share will need to return back.

The more likely scenario is that there could be a possibility of private placement where it is normally placed out at 10% of it' s current average price. The share price will be shorted down to make the placement more attractive.

This happened to Ascendas Hospitality trust. Even after declaring near to 2.8c dividend, the share price was hovering at all time low of 0.71 (The price was hovering around 0.90 just 1 year ago). The placement price was around 10% of 0.70 if i remember correctly. After the placement, the share price has now recovered back to 0.75.

edwinjup ( Date: 24-May-2014 19:58) Posted:

Top 20 shareholders control 96.09%....and those above 5% who need filing to sgx if any changes in their holding control 76%..and.only.107 shareholders hold more than 10lots....where got so many shares in trading....i believe someone loan the share from.ssh or.mgt to short..cum release their own holding after.6 months after.ipo sales restriction....next time have to becareful those new.ipo........

HVRRVH ( Date: 24-May-2014 19:50) Posted:

3% only? haha then it shouldn' t be. must be mr market in his foul mood. maybe worth a look at this price...

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21-May-2014 10:46

Figtree / Figtree

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What' s yr view at the current situation? Is it currently in accumulation of distribution mode? Most of the transcations are done at 0.255. Thanks.

edwinjup ( Date: 21-May-2014 10:15) Posted:

Short report indicate very few shorties..those short past two days..sgx will buy in for them at different counter...not direct from the market

nngeeh ( Date: 21-May-2014 10:12) Posted:

The buy queue at 0.255 seems to be holding well. Hopefully, the price has stabilized. Those who shorted for the past 2 days may buy back.

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21-May-2014 10:12

Figtree / Figtree

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The buy queue at 0.255 seems to be holding well. Hopefully, the price has stabilized. Those who shorted for the past 2 days may buy back.

edwinjup ( Date: 21-May-2014 09:54) Posted:

Very surprise that 26c sell q remain...i may q lower around 23...

Bon3260 ( Date: 21-May-2014 09:37) Posted:

More dwn side 2 cm now.
Set buying actually' s catching e falling knifes.

They' ll 1-shot sell dwn 0.250 soon...
Another support' ll b 0.225/0.230.

(" ,)

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14-Mar-2014 09:44

Olam Intl / OLAM_OLAM

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The url was taken down, but if you search " Muddy Waters losing battle to Olam" in google, could was still see it was linked with livetrading. Anyway, i kept that article. Enjoy:

***************

As we predicted when this began, Muddy Waters got in over their heads tackling Olam.

The rumor in Hong Kong is that Muddy Waters is the cash strapped and needed a fast Olam victory, but choosing Olam as a target was ill advised. As it stands now, Olam will outlive Muddy Waters in financial terms.

Olam is one of Temasek?s many holding and that is a problem for anyone seeking to collapse a company, Temasek is a powerhouse. Temasek is not your regular investment fund Muddy Waters so easily scare, Temasek have wider responsibility, one to the Sovereign Nation of Singapore and it?s people. Temasek could stand to lose 10′ s of billions if Olam were to fail and the Singapore Financial Hub, Singapore Stock Exchange left tarnished. It will not happen.

Temasek was incorporated in 1974 with an initial portfolio valued at S$354 million. The portfolio has grown to a record S$198 billion in March 2012.

Temasek Portfolio Value

Muddy Waters should have known that, Singapore is not China, it is hard to build momentum against a company as Maddy Waters has done in China unless you can feed off the Western World?s Xenophobic fear of all things Chinese.

This week the Muddy Waters problems took a turn for the worse.

Straits Times reported, Kewalram Singapore, which owns 20 per cent of Olam, announced in an e-mail statement on Monday that it fully supported the commodities trader?s offering.

It said it believed Olam?s proposed rights issue was ?in the best interest of the company, and is an attractive investment opportunity for all shareholders, as well as being beneficial to the bondholders?.

As far as the technicals go on Olam?s chart there is no doubt it is in dangerous territory, but the key number that Muddy Waters will be pushing for is a break below the rights issue price, under $1.30 and Olam will have trouble. So far the stock is resisting that level and is painting an ominous picture of the Muddy Waters Short position.

The rights issue takes advantage of Muddy Waters cash position. Based on volume, I would estimate the short position averages around $1.90SGD, the brokers acting on behalf of the short seller would have a safety margin of around 30% so the stock needs to run to $2.34 to rid the company of that short seller.

The average short away from the short seller looks to be around 1.68SGD, so they will become buyers at the $1.86SGD point.

yyhwin ( Date: 14-Mar-2014 08:50) Posted:

well say, any link to the article?

nngeeh ( Date: 14-Mar-2014 08:44) Posted:

Brillant move to get rid of Muddy Waters.

There was an article titled " Muddy waters losing battle to Olam" publised on the livetrading website 1 year back, written by a fund manager. He assessed at the point that general market shorted at $1.7 & MW shorted at $1.9. The shortists are anticipated to buy back if the share goes above 30% of it's shorted value.

Last Friday, the sgx lending pool were showing " 0" , and the daily short for the last few session was ranging between 1000~3000.

So, according to the fund manager, to get rid of MW, the share price will need to reach around approximately $2.3 (quite close to the offer price).

This will force MW to buy back the share. Even though the general market was supposed to have covered back when the share reached 1.9 (around 30% of 1.7), but judging from the lending pool, they have not really covered back the share.

I think once the halt is lifted, the short squeeze from both MW and shortist will force the share to go higher than the offer price.

As Temasek intends to keep Olam listed, i won't be surprise if the institution players who were waiting for Q2 result will also join in invest now. As there is a support price at $2.23, these factors might force the price to go much higher than $2.23.

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14-Mar-2014 08:44

Olam Intl / OLAM_OLAM

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Brillant move to get rid of Muddy Waters.

There was an article titled " Muddy waters losing battle to Olam" publised on the livetrading website 1 year back, written by a fund manager. He assessed at the point that general market shorted at $1.7 & MW shorted at $1.9. The shortists are anticipated to buy back if the share goes above 30% of it's shorted value.

Last Friday, the sgx lending pool were showing " 0" , and the daily short for the last few session was ranging between 1000~3000.

So, according to the fund manager, to get rid of MW, the share price will need to reach around approximately $2.3 (quite close to the offer price).

This will force MW to buy back the share. Even though the general market was supposed to have covered back when the share reached 1.9 (around 30% of 1.7), but judging from the lending pool, they have not really covered back the share.

I think once the halt is lifted, the short squeeze from both MW and shortist will force the share to go higher than the offer price.

As Temasek intends to keep Olam listed, i won't be surprise if the institution players who were waiting for Q2 result will also join in invest now. As there is a support price at $2.23, these factors might force the price to go much higher than $2.23.

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14-Mar-2014 08:31

Olam Intl / TEMASEK PRIVATISE OLAM

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Temasek intends to keep Olam listed as per the announcement below:

He further noted, " We prefer to keep Olam as a listed company, which will continue to be guided by its board and management team. However, we will reassess our position if the minimum public float requirements are not met at the close of the Offer."

johnng ( Date: 14-Mar-2014 07:45) Posted:

TEMASEK PRIVATISE OLAM

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12-Mar-2014 09:45

Olam Intl / OLAM_OLAM

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As the CDP lending pool is still showing " 0" , there are many still shorting Olam or holding on to the short position at this moment.

If the marking is dropping by 20 points now, and there are many shortist trying to short down Olam, but Olam's price is still looking very strong, and very likely to go above $2 soon, i'll be very worried if i'm shorting Olam.

If the news source is true, it seems that there are at least 15 banks that are lining up to provide loan to Olam, and that shows the banks' confidence in Olam's business, and eager to provide loan to Olam.

Octavia ( Date: 12-Mar-2014 09:24) Posted:

According to news sources, Olam has shortlisted 15 banks to join an arranger group for its up to $1.2b two-part syndicated loan.

Asking for more loan again and again.Debt increased significantly.

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15-Feb-2014 12:58

Olam Intl / OLAM_OLAM

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I recalled seeing an article in strait times at the begining of last year where Goh Eng Yeow showed a chart on the number of Olam's loan share vs it's share price movement. Not sure where he got it from. It'll surely help in guessing the direction of its price in the next few months. If the number of loan share stays the same, and if the price is slowly trending up, i may pick up more -> anticipating the short squeeze.

NobleRose ( Date: 15-Feb-2014 12:39) Posted:

There is no way to find out whether MW has closed their position. But it doesn't really matter also, so long as there are still alot of people shorting the stage is set for a short squeeze! All we need is a lead and brokerages houses upgrade will serve this purpose well.

Also short position is unsustainable in long run, they need to incur high shares borrowing (rate), compensate for shareholders' dividend payment and high opportunity cost if share price won't further move down.

Just be patient and hold. MW is swimming right into our net.

Chartist like to use term like " dancing with YYY" , " Swinging with ZZZ" , I like to name this investment as " Fishing in MW"

It won't be long before the entire (100% return) MW end up on our dinner table!

nngeeh ( Date: 15-Feb-2014 12:17) Posted:

Does anyone know if Muddy Water is still holding " short position" ? How can i check how many olam share has been loaned out? From the SGX lending pool, there is no " olam share available to be loaned out" . There are many still holding on to the short position.

Even though the profit has gone down, but Olam has not collapsed as predicted by Muddy Water, and it is still paying dividend and interest (for their bond). If the price keep going up north (as more investors come in), it will surely caused a short squeeze. This could even be the reason to explain the price increase even though their profit has gone down. The investors might be holding on until they saw the result on friday which assured them that Olam is not collapsing. Furthermore, there is a safety net that is provided by Temasek. No one will dare to short olam big time with Temasek showing their strong support.

If Muddy water is still holding the short position, i'll also like to hold on to my share until Muddy Water buy back all the shares. It'll be interesting to see the impact to the pricing.

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