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Latest Posts By sheerluck - Supreme      About sheerluck
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28-May-2014 02:30 Falcon Energy   /   Falcon Energy       Go to Message
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Results is out.   Superb!!

Net Profit for past three years: 

2011 - 3.3k 

2012 - 9.8k 

2013 - 38k after adjusting for one-off gain from sale of two rigs.

Net profit' s CAGR is 165% or 126% after adjusting for one-off gain.   Reveune CGAR is 41%.

Core P/E = 6

P/B =0.9

Declared a 1cts div.   0.5cts more than I expected.

Expecting price to enter the 40cts-50cts range.   Market must be rational!!!

DYDD.  wink

 
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28-May-2014 00:46 EuroSports Gbl   /   People Selling       Go to Message
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Sorry if I keep ranting ESG.   If you don' t like, please turn away now.

The two top people are MG and AG.   Give you a break down of their income this year.

During IPO they sold 24mil and 16mil share at 28cts.   So that is $6.7mil+$4.5mil

From IPO prospectus, they are getting Band B pay so from $250k to $500k each

After IPO-ing, they still own 70% of the company, so the special will contribute $3.1mil and $2.1mil.   Other shareholders get $2.2mil

Also don' t forget, they got perfromance bonus.   Based on my calc, add another $805k+$555k  if they include that $16mil  but is plain wrong if they do because selling and leasing back a property isn' t their core ops!   It doesn' t count.

So they took so much $$$ into their own pocket from the market and left a business with little prospect and a token of $2.2mil to the rest.

By the way, the six-month lock up is almost up,   They started trading on 17 Jan 2014.

DYDD.  wink

 
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27-May-2014 23:39 EuroSports Gbl   /   People Selling       Go to Message
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Aiyo, you didn' t follow this coy.   They booked a one-off gain of S$16.21 million arising from  the sales and leaseback of 30 Teban Gardens Crescent.   You take this one out of the P/L, you can see the real results.   You should also check if their top people are getting so well-paid that it further eroded the bottomline.

They lagi best.   Never say is special dividend but said is final div.   Don' t overlook this.   People don' t know thought they got a bumper year and is giving out a bumper dividend.

They are actually very shrewd.   From IPO prospectus, you can tell their business is on downtrend but they got good enough results for the past three year so quickly get listed.   If they do it this year with this sort of results, I think no banks or agents interested.   They also sold their own shares during the IPO and I think already booked equivalent of about 3-4 times of their paid into their own pocket.

If it choing, then is giving face to he final div.

DYDD.   wink

 

Zindarion      ( Date: 27-May-2014 20:25) Posted:

Financial Report just out. Looks good for me. Might need pro to check details
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27-May-2014 20:03 Falcon Energy   /   Falcon Energy       Go to Message
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Managed to hold at 38cts support.   See if it still hold tml.  
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27-May-2014 19:53 EuroSports Gbl   /   People Selling       Go to Message
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Special Div lai liao.   2.8cts.   Perforamce wise....
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27-May-2014 16:58 Nam Cheong   /   Nam Cheong       Go to Message
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Slow and steady wins the race.
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27-May-2014 16:46 KrisEnergy   /   KrisEnergy       Go to Message
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Think market favour E& P coy whose name started with " R" .   Maybe KRIS should change name to RIS.   Probably run twenty miles ahead of R& R.
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27-May-2014 16:20 KrisEnergy   /   KrisEnergy       Go to Message
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Okay, Thanks.   I was expecting a KRIS to   turn in a small profit when their Vietnam field starts production starting next year but perhap lumpy capex and financial cost might just overwhelm it.

 

AddLuck      ( Date: 27-May-2014 16:08) Posted:



poring thru theirIPO prospectus, i think G 10/48 is an additional field.....more of an opportunity buy. The profit of $20- $30/ barrel includes capex capitalisation......rough calculation seems to say no profit   till 3rd quarter ' 15 if things go well and without delay to EPC of wells.

sheerluck      ( Date: 27-May-2014 15:34) Posted:



That' s the reason why I only estiamte the reveune becos capex can be lumpy and profit can swing widely between quarters.   They will actually be left with only $20mil based on last quarter cash balance of $120mil.   They estimated $200mil for capex this year so pretty obvious there isn' t going to be enough cash to go around.   Oso dunno know if this G10/48 acquisition is additonal or not.   Fund-raising is expected.  

This $20-$30/barrel profit estimate, is it with capitalisation of capex?


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27-May-2014 15:34 KrisEnergy   /   KrisEnergy       Go to Message
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That' s the reason why I only estiamte the reveune becos capex can be lumpy and profit can swing widely between quarters.   They will actually be left with only $20mil based on last quarter cash balance of $120mil.   They estimated $200mil for capex this year so pretty obvious there isn' t going to be enough cash to go around.   Oso dunno know if this G10/48 acquisition is additonal or not.   Fund-raising is expected.  

This $20-$30/barrel profit estimate, is it with capitalisation of capex?

AddLuck      ( Date: 27-May-2014 15:08) Posted:



Very optimistic calculation indeed ( paragragh 2)......just to note.....for every barrel of oil sold... approximate profit is about $ 20- $30/ barrel ( if sold at $100).....rest go to oil lifting cost, royalties. taxes etc,ect. You can calculate from there.From today' s announcement, capital left is about $ 40 mil.......hence, need to issue mid term note(MTN - $500 mil) for more capex. I did not go into indepth calculation for this counter but I did for REX.

sheerluck      ( Date: 21-May-2014 21:57) Posted:



I was expecting KRIS Q1 to turn in a small profit because its production increased from 3k boepd to 8k boepd.   But the financial cost for redeeming the bond is higher than I expected.   Anyway, that' s good since it means goiing forward, its financial cost should be lower.

It just annouced buying the remaining working interest for G10/48 for US$100mil.   This deal seems good as they expected production of 10k barrel of oil per day to start in 2015H2.   However, 10k is expected peak so lets discount it by 20% and they need to allow a local Thai firm a 10% working interest if they want to participates so let assume 70k barrel per day belongs to KRIS then.   Now for a quarter that equates to an additional revenue of US$ 63mil (90 days x 7k barrel x US$100) on top of their current US$21mil.

In addition, they have one vietnam oil field coming into production by the beginning of 2015.   This one is expected to add 3.3k barrel of oil so I expect 2015 Q1 reveune to be around US$54mil (US$33 from new oil field + US$21mil from existing oil field) in total and Q2 to be around US$117mil.

Given their capex this year, I believe they will still be loss-making but come next year, they should turn in some pretty decent profit ssuming no capex.   Of course they will have capex but we only know what it is when they release their AR2014.

One thing good about KRIS is that it generate cash to partly fund their activities and it has revenue visibility.

DYDD.  wink


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27-May-2014 14:17 Medi Lifestyle   /   IEV - decent results and promising developments       Go to Message
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Haha!   Dun worry, bro.   I am always prepared to keep thing in freezers.   Need to be steady for short-term volatility.   Overall, I still believe IEV got a good turnaround story.   Almost ingredients are ready to make the yummy soup but if market don' t fancy it, I also need to admit.

See how it goes.

DYDD.  wink

 

RoundRound      ( Date: 27-May-2014 13:45) Posted:

bryancbq, don't scarce Sheerluck lah. Later he 28.5c also jump in to buy....

bryancbq      ( Date: 27-May-2014 13:35) Posted:



lol. there is a small chance that it wont come back down to 26 liao. haha. but who knows.


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27-May-2014 13:14 Medi Lifestyle   /   IEV - decent results and promising developments       Go to Message
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Dilemma now you know.   I expect quite a few annoucments in the coming months.   IEV is very good at keeping the public informed of their development.   That' s one thing I like about it as well.   Their results also reveal enough data for me to see some very positive things coming.   But low volume is a concern for me now.   Don' t know how many are for the quick profit and how many for the long-term prospects.

There is a small possibility that it may not pull back and just keep going up.   Like to collect low but maybe current price is also considered low??   Still thinking.......

DYDD.   wink

edwinjup      ( Date: 27-May-2014 12:53) Posted:

It ok...it will.come back soon.....i q at 26...join me lor...lol

sheerluck      ( Date: 27-May-2014 12:49) Posted:



Damn.   Ran before I can act!

 


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27-May-2014 12:49 Medi Lifestyle   /   IEV - decent results and promising developments       Go to Message
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Damn.   Ran before I can act!

 
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27-May-2014 10:52 Falcon Energy   /   Falcon Energy       Go to Message
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Haha.   Somehow I came to the conclusion there is this Tan vs Peh issue as well.   Okay.   Thanks for your views.   Keep in mind.   yes

pnuklis      ( Date: 27-May-2014 06:31) Posted:



I feel JP controls the board in CHO which is cash rich and no debt. They have not added any assets in last 4 years as Tan and J don' t see eye to eye. On the other side FEG also has not added any assets to increase performence and I don' t believe FEG is any good stock to go after. If they had charted the rig that would have been more attractive regular income under current conditions. I would prefer Nam Cheong or Pacific Radiance over cho or FEG stocks. 

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27-May-2014 01:28 Falcon Energy   /   Falcon Energy       Go to Message
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They disposed the two rigs with quite some gain so is good.

FEG hold 29% of CHO while Jimmy Peh hold 6.23% direct and 23.71% indirect.   Seems on par in term of influence.   They bought CHO share for 70cts.   At 42cts now is a 40% loss but unless they need to sell it off, it makes no difference.   They can hold until the price recover.   Alternatively taking CHO private is cheaper now.   Ofc Jimmy Peh may not want to let go unless the offer is attractive enough.   Anyway this is a distant possibility and the share price has already been played.

So far I see the turnaround of its business from 2011 till now which is pretty impressive as the catalyst.

You probably saw something pretty bad about FEG. Can share?

wink

pnuklis      ( Date: 26-May-2014 19:28) Posted:



Ordered the Jack-up and flipped it before delivery for one off gain is this performence. FEG has vested in CH Offshore at very high price and suffering. I do not believe there is any solid fundamentals in FEG. Cannot influence CHO as Jimmy Peh is controlling. I am not impressed with FEG

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27-May-2014 00:00 Medi Lifestyle   /   IEV - decent results and promising developments       Go to Message
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Haha, you will be disappointed.   He didn' t buy alot.

They started workover on PBN-01 so may expect oil production within a year and their biomass plant should be up and running within a year as well.

These are the catalysts I am looking out for plus the award of another decom project.

DYDD.   wink

edwinjup      ( Date: 26-May-2014 19:15) Posted:



Nice...waiting for my Kopi from CEO ....hope can drink within this week...lol

sheerluck      ( Date: 26-May-2014 17:29) Posted:



CEO and ID has been collecting for the past two weeks liao.  

Can' t say it is a bad thing.   wink

 


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26-May-2014 23:48 ProsperaGlobal   /   Sinjia Land - Next 20cent stock !!!!       Go to Message
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The dip isn' t alot.   Also  20cts is a natural barrier.   Need something more powerful to push it over.

 

wolfofwallstreet      ( Date: 26-May-2014 20:11) Posted:

Today got company share buy back at $0.200 with 500,000 shares.

But drop due high selling pressure. MUST BE SAME THE GUY- Ex COO.

Time to accumulate here, before the next wave !!!
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26-May-2014 17:29 Medi Lifestyle   /   IEV - decent results and promising developments       Go to Message
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CEO and ID has been collecting for the past two weeks liao.  

Can' t say it is a bad thing.   wink

 
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26-May-2014 17:22 Figtree   /   Figtree       Go to Message
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CEO and ID bought some share last Friday.   Good Luck!  wink
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26-May-2014 15:27 Medi Lifestyle   /   will iev back to $1 ?       Go to Message
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You can check their change in receivebale and payables under working capital.   If their collection lag behind payment, they will need to raise money to cover it.   You can then check if the loan ballooned or activites under cash flow for financing.   Alternatively check the age of their  receivebale in their AR.   You will get a farily good idea about this.

DYDD.  wink

zaridufs      ( Date: 24-May-2014 18:08) Posted:



Thanks. Hope they are able to collect back the amount and not let it swell.

edwinjup      ( Date: 24-May-2014 15:13) Posted:

I Think major part is from the recent complete decommissioning contracts and $330 m malikai tlp turkey projects..as company might acc in some before receive.payments..thank
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26-May-2014 13:23 Nam Cheong   /   Nam Cheong       Go to Message
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Must have made a killing!   Congrats!   Div should in bank tomorrow.   HUAT AHAH!   wink

chtan5751      ( Date: 26-May-2014 12:17) Posted:

0372442 Nam Cheong SGD Sell 0.380 298,000 298,000 0 F SGD Cash 26-05-2014 09:09:14 591269C100009E28-N4E_R-S 23-05-2014 17:12:43
 
 
     
0372442 Nam Cheong SGD Sell 0.380 298,000 298,000 0 F SGD Cash 26-05-2014 09:09:14 591269C100009E28-N4E_R-S 23-05-2014 17:12:43
 
 
     
0372442 Nam Cheong SGD Sell 0.380 298,000 298,000 0 F SGD Cash 26-05-2014 09:09:14 591269C100009E28-N4E_R-S 23-05-2014 17:12:43
 
 
     
0372442 Nam Cheong SGD Sell 0.380 298,000 298,000 0 F SGD Cash 26-05-2014 09:09:14 591269C100009E28-N4E_R-S 23-05-2014 17:12:43
 
 
     
0372442 Nam Cheong SGD Sell 0.380 298,000 298,000 0 F SGD Cash 26-05-2014 09:09:14 591269C100009E28-N4E_R-S 23-05-2014 17:12:43
sell 298 lolts at $0.38... cheers 
 
 
     
xxxxxxx Nam Cheong SGD Sell 0.380 298,000 298,000 0 F SGD Cash 26-05-2014 09:09:14 591269C100009E28-N4E_R-S 23-05-2014 17:12:43
 
 
     

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