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09-Dec-2014 22:16

Nam Cheong / Nam Cheong

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The risk has definitely increased. Best to work out NC fair value based on these scenarios:
- reversal of bts revenue
- reversal of bts revenue but add that USD 186mill contract.

lifeisgood ( Date: 09-Dec-2014 21:15) Posted:

Understand that Petronas is slashing budget next year by a huge amount. That would negatively affect Nam Cheong ability to sell to Petronas, wont it?

sheerluck ( Date: 09-Dec-2014 15:40) Posted:

Looks like market is going to totally discount NC BTS strategy for now. From OCBC research, NC sold 27 out of 30 vessels this year and target to sell 35 next year. If NC can confirm that 20 vessels contract, it should help to find some support. After that NC needs to find buyers for the remaining fleets. However, the price movement is also telling me that the market is turning very cautious on NC for 2016 which doesn' t seems to have anything within sight.

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09-Dec-2014 15:40

Nam Cheong / Nam Cheong

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Heero78 ( Date: 09-Dec-2014 12:06) Posted:

Agreed. The BTS model is definitely very risky resulting in strict requirement on cash and debt. But at the same time, this business model also reap faster and more when oil price rebound and capex rise back.

So it got its pro and con.

sheerluck ( Date: 09-Dec-2014 11:02) Posted:

I believe market is now placing a cautious look on NC biz model.

Risks:

Business model - NC' s built-to-stock (bts) model dress up its income statement nicer than those built-to-order (bto) coy. For NC, not getting contracts is similar to coy whose contract gets cancellation, ie , they both ended up with unsold vessels. If NC bto vessels also ganna cancellations, it is going to be a double whammy for it.

Tax rate - I thought Malayisa corpartion tax ia around 25%. NC tax expenses are also very low, not where near that level. This suggested to me that NC taxable profit is much lower than its accounting profit.

Cashflow - When times are good, we are happy looking at just income statement, but cashflow statement is where the truth lies and it is more comparable. NC inventory which I used as a gauge to the level of unsold bts vessels has been increasing for the past three years. Correspondingly, borrowing (bank or MTN) increases as well.

What can help NC?

For short-term simply a confirmation of that US186mil contract. Long-term, will rest heavily on oil price.

The three points under risk are facts, the long-term prospect seems negative for the next 1-2 years and the short-term hope is uncertain. I no longer have any position in NC.

Take my words with a grain of salt and DYDD. Gd luck.

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09-Dec-2014 11:02

Nam Cheong / Nam Cheong

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08-Dec-2014 18:37

Nam Cheong / Nam Cheong

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cheong sala direction...........

bishan22 ( Date: 08-Dec-2014 16:01) Posted:

Yeah, cheong down liao.....

moron101 ( Date: 08-Dec-2014 15:59) Posted:

This one gone to Hor land after cb dbsv's downgrade.

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05-Dec-2014 11:58

Nam Cheong / Nam Cheong

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I thought it can be either. Anyway, NCL is a bet now.

Qanghoo ( Date: 05-Dec-2014 10:15) Posted:

Correct me if I' m wrong. But I always thought when broking hses buy, it' s on behalf of clients, usually margin a/c clients. So dbsv might have been executing a client' s order?

ranojoy ( Date: 05-Dec-2014 10:11) Posted:

Analyst reports and calls should always be taken with a pinch of salt. I sold some NC yesterday at close of of trade yesterday and some lots were bought via DBSV.

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04-Dec-2014 08:38

Medi Lifestyle / IEV - decent results and promising developments

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Their bid is for the RM1.5bil crude oil handling facilities project in Bangladesh out of the RM11bil. The report also said they should finalised the negotiation within a month so we might hear something by year end. Seems like IEV Bhd may have some lobang. Even though their share price have fallen so much, compared to their most recent performace there is still quite a hugh risk.

edwinjup ( Date: 04-Dec-2014 05:27) Posted:

Ya...yet to sign.the contract..still in discussion but got hopes.....at least they are working something big.....i think that why ceo dare not buy back.now ..insider trading....lol..think shareholder can hold tight......

newbieliu ( Date: 03-Dec-2014 23:54) Posted:

Mmmm,... saw the announcement on the possible agreement on the handling of crude oil nia... well they are responsble enough to say it is not awarded to them yet... haha

It will take some time for the investor to regain their confidence in this coy... my average price for this coy still highhhhhh.... waiting n holding too... Good luck to u too.

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28-Nov-2014 10:33

Nam Cheong / Nam Cheong

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If NCL can confirm the US186mil deal, there is a good chance it can go back to 50cts. If not, it may just linger around the 40cts range. NCL has not disappointed so far but O& G really suck now.

The risk associated with NCL is its biz model. If one looks at NCL' s financial statement on borrowing, inventories and especially tax expenses, you can come to some conclusions yourself.

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27-Nov-2014 12:15

Vard / Vard Holdings

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Ganna attacked!

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27-Nov-2014 10:38

Medi Lifestyle / IEV - decent results and promising developments

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Internally, they still being dragged down by D21. I thought that was sorted out some time ago. Externally, they are in a sectors that is not in favour also. All the positive ingredients that I expect didn' t take place and more negatives have emerged.

The outlook for this coy isn' t great now. I am turning cautious about it.

edwinjup ( Date: 27-Nov-2014 10:19) Posted:

Bro danger...iev 14c liao.....mi picked up some for my pillow.....wan to join...

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23-Nov-2014 11:05

MarcoPolo Marine / Marco Polo - IPO

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O&G so bad now. All o&g related coy kanna left right center upside down. Nothing much coy can do. Do other activities got better "return".

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21-Nov-2014 12:39

Nam Cheong / Nam Cheong

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Nam Cheong ai mai ai mai......

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21-Nov-2014 10:50

Rex Intl / Rex International

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Funny why these analysts think it is worth $1, they themselves don' t offer to buy at 70cts or 80cts. Still a big bargain to what they believe is its worth.

XTC855 ( Date: 21-Nov-2014 10:26) Posted:

Rex $1 ??? where got so good lobang?

genting^2 ( Date: 21-Nov-2014 09:05) Posted:

As expected, rebounding...

SP Angel Morning Oil & Gas Gulfsands Petroleum, LGO Energy and Rex International Holding

By SP Angel
November 19 2014, 9:50am

Comment

Todays news from Pantheon resources

regarding the reduction in rig costs and increased availability, while great news for the Pantheon, and indeed all the other Junior E& P companies operating in the US onshore segment (such as Nostra Terra, Empyrean, Magnolia, etc.), it is a clear the impact that the current price environment is having on capital spending plans.

This reinforces our belief that the immediate layer of investment, where it can be arrested, will be, and that any investment still on the slate for consideration is now in the process of being withdrawn. Ultimately this will create a &ldquo hole&rdquo in future production, which in turn will swing the Supply/Demand balance towards supply, driving prices up significantly.

As a consequence, we are more optimistic for the longer term outlook for the oil price than we have been previously, and with each piece of anecdotal data, we are increasingly convinced that we will see prices significantly above $115/bbl within 3 years. The exact timing, however, will be dependent on the economy, or rather whether it will be another soft landing, or a hard landing.

News Items

Rex International Holding &ndash Sharpening Focus

Today the company

announces the execution of the agreement that novates the interest in the Inniss-Trinity to LGO Energy for $5mm. while the funds are deminimis for the company, it provides further focus on the key assets within the portfolio, which to our mind is essential for the upcoming demonstration of

drilling activity in 2015. While Trinidad has been on our work programme for the company&rsquo s valuation, we had not sufficiently delineated the asset for the purposes of valuation, hence it does contribute any value to our S$1.10 valuation. Consequently, we reiterate our S$1.10 Target Price and BUY Recommendation.

LGO Energy (LON:LGO) &ndash Building Production and Running Room

There are two bits of news today, one which has been announced by Rex International, and the other is the ongoing drilling success at Goudron, and both are in Trinidad. While we have come to expect the success in Goudron, a reflection of the increasing knowledge base that this management

ream has over its asset, the prospect of the addition of the Inniss-Trinity (&ldquo INT&rdquo ) field to the LGO portfolio brings significant running room for the company. We believe that the company&rsquo s investors will be happy with today&rsquo s news, doubly so as the acquisition of the INT field creates the prospect of the same successes experienced in Goudron being replicated.

Gulfsands Petroleum (LON:GPX) &ndash Diversification Picks Up Pace

Today&rsquo s news provides two bits of information that should ease the pressure on the shares, and both essentially detailing the same thing, namely, the continued diversification away from its existing asset base. Given that the company has just taken a convertible, it is now more important than it was before that cash flow is established quickly and that it continues to build its portfolio so as to minimise the impact of the loss (possibly temporarily) of its Syrian operations.

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20-Nov-2014 19:59

Courts Asia / Courts Asia

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SMRT rallied 60% because they got something to tell the market they are going to turn profitable. CourtsAsia got nothing to show. Anyway Courts is tryng very hard to keep their price above water with their share buy back.

Does Courts deserve another chance? Maybe when it traded at 25cts.

wangst ( Date: 20-Nov-2014 18:56) Posted:

courts is by far one of the worst performing stocks ever...once upon a time it was smrt who kept finding a way to make new lows but has now rallied 60% from the bottom...meanwhile, courts just kept finding new lows and it must have been really frustrated being a shareholder as hard earned money is being eroded from 1 dollar plus all the way down below 40 cents....and worse still, when other stocks are falling, people will make remark like " this stock may turn into another courts asia" , reflecting just how bad courts asia has been performing...might be a penny soon

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19-Nov-2014 18:47

Courts Asia / Courts Asia

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After a worst quarter performance and and cutting wage expenses by 10% (either they cut 10% staff or 10% pay cut) and no change to top mgmt salary (they only give themselves more repsonsibilities), the RC can still award CEO 243,400 shares which they used company monies to buy from open market.

http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/CAL_draft%20ann_DSA.ashx?App=Announcement& FileID=325416

Now I wonder if they do share buy back becos they really think the share price is under-valued or if the mgmt need to have have treasuary shares to award themselves.....

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19-Nov-2014 18:24

QT Vascular / QT Vascular Going BIG

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Looking at the volme traded so far, New Investors may have unloaded long time ago but Pre-IPO investors...I dun think so. UOB KayHian definitely have holding or client holding. I wonder how many CIMB holds. If they are so kind to analyse for retailers, I salute them. However, I dun think. If CIMB has accumulated since IPO, they are most likely looking at losses......

ytoh1688 ( Date: 19-Nov-2014 10:58) Posted:

https://brokingrfs.cimb.com/KRVyDj4R44TXEbpi6pWqQ6vKx2O75DFANsCjphniQa1Q0cGZEoMy141-PFZYV2JS9viAwNwvgXM1.pdf

Just released by cimb

What You Should Do
We also note that most of the non-strategic pre-IPO shareholders have exited
the stock post the expiry of the moratorium, removing the overhangs that have
depressed share price performance. We are excited as we believe QTV&rsquo s
pipeline and staggered approvals can turn around earnings. QTV is a serious
contender in the global vascular market and, not inconceivably, a potential
M& A target for medical devices MNCs

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17-Nov-2014 09:36

QT Vascular / QT Vascular Going BIG

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Powered up siah!

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16-Nov-2014 18:41

QT Vascular / QT Vascular Going BIG

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Info from prospectus of QTV on investors' cost of investment.

	Number of Shares acquired	Total consideration (S$)	Average effective cost per Share (cents)
Substantial Shareholders
Three Arch Partners	150,430,339	34,130,300	22.7
Luminor Pacific Fund	102,120,176	15,289,124	15
BMSIF	63,113,216	12,751,577	20.2
Directors
Dr Eitan Konstantino	13,054,336	3,010	0.02
Others
Three Arch Associates	3,321,105	743,553	22.4
Luminor Pacific Fund	6,913,760	1,272,997	18.4
Adams Street 2006	17,458,832	6,420,003	36.8
Adams Street 2007	19,715,840	7,250,301	36.8
PPCF	7,558,828	2,116,472	28
Pre-IPO Investors	77,402,387	11,975,000	15.5
J& JDC	14,147,321	3,169,000	22.4
New Investors	178,490,000	49,977,200	28

sheerluck ( Date: 15-Nov-2014 18:55) Posted:

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15-Nov-2014 18:55

QT Vascular / QT Vascular Going BIG

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15-Nov-2014 14:05

QT Vascular / QT Vascular Going BIG

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From the sound of it, we should expect a bumper sale for q4. let's look forward to it. In the meantime, if the price kept dropping, better be cautious.

notsostupid ( Date: 15-Nov-2014 12:41) Posted:

That's the trouble! Those who dump their shares have missed the point. Now the numbers came out are just report for peripheral market segment. The coronary market segment just kicked off last month if I'm not wrong. Coronary market is much much larger than peripheral! If both PTA and PTCA numbers put together plus China and European market penetration, I believe will be higher many folds! Look forward to the future!

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15-Nov-2014 12:00

QT Vascular / QT Vascular Going BIG

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Prospectus is uncertain. Analysts sells this to public with beautiful story. Those who bought at 40cts and above see what happened now. It may really be big one day but getting in at a price that is safe is important. Given its current perofrmance, even at 29cts I find it expensive. Keeping risk as low as possible is key for us retailers.

notsostupid ( Date: 15-Nov-2014 11:50) Posted:

Potential is tremendous! Coronary market is much larger than peripheral. As of now, result is only for peripheral I think. The coronary segment has not even counted in yet. Also China and European market to come. Look at the prospect to judge!

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