Latest Posts By sheerluck
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| 15-Jan-2015 16:12 |
Ocean Sky Intl
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Ocean Sky could be the next multiplier
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Simply like this: RNAV from announcement is S$504.4mil. OS current NAV is USD$32.4mil. So possible NAV is 504.4 + 32.4 * 1.33 = S$547.6mil. Total share after 2:1 consolidation + new issues = 867.5 mil NAV per share = 63cts. So pre consolidation about 31.5cts.
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| 15-Jan-2015 15:20 |
Ocean Sky Intl
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Ocean Sky could be the next multiplier
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There is about $278mil of " possible" unrealised NAV of LINK (THM) in the annoucement. So if the RTO goes through, the fair value of LINK can be between 15.5cts to 31.5cts (pre 2:1 consolidition). LINK seems like a relatively young coy but its $1bil Medini project can be the focus of the coy. This one near 2nd link and not too far from Legoland. This move should be aiming at raising profile for the coy and funds for the project. Anyway, if one enters at 13.5cts, there is a risk of 40% of invested capital for a potential 13% gain on 15.5cts or 57% gain on 31.5cts. Note the MOU lapses in six months. All these based on the data in the announcement and my own interpretation. DYDD.
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| 15-Jan-2015 15:06 |
Ocean Sky Intl
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Ocean Sky could be the next multiplier
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At 13.5cts, risk premium has now increased to 40%. When I calculate the 13cts, I didn' t include OS NAV which is about US32mil. Include this into the equation, the value can be seens as 15.5cts. Obviously I am not the expert here because that' s the price it was trading at when this RTO was annouced. |
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| 15-Jan-2015 14:23 |
Nam Cheong
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Nam Cheong
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No idea bro. |
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| 15-Jan-2015 13:57 |
Nam Cheong
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Nam Cheong
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Still holding the 32cts defense. Can NC hold it till it confirm that US186mil contract????? |
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| 15-Jan-2015 13:56 |
Hafary
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Hafary
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Trading way below 24cts now. Weird? |
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| 15-Jan-2015 11:13 |
Ocean Sky Intl
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Ocean Sky could be the next multiplier
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OS has dropped below 13cts. Even at 12.2cts it is still trading at a premium of 27% over its NAV of 9.6cts. If the RTO proceed, then MOS has already emerged. If the RTO is cancelled, you risk that 27% premium. |
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| 14-Jan-2015 14:31 |
Nam Cheong
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Nam Cheong
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hm....should sees it as 5.6mil shares being dumped or collected at 32cts? Another 2mil shares waiting in queue to collect. |
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| 13-Jan-2015 15:11 |
Nam Cheong
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Nam Cheong
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I have only one question for Nam Cheong. Ai or mai. Mai aimai aimai. ZZZZZzzzzz........ |
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| 13-Jan-2015 09:39 |
Ocean Sky Intl
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Ocean Sky could be the next multiplier
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Coming to 13cts. If drop further maybe can pick up some. DYDD. 
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| 06-Jan-2015 09:42 |
Ocean Sky Intl
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Ocean Sky could be the next multiplier
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Without dilution will simply be 35.2cts/2. With dilution multiple by it further with 0.741. But market don' t simply work on simlpe math and none of us is right or wrong. Only the market is right and it seems now market is hanging around the mid point of 15cts.
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| 06-Jan-2015 09:15 |
Ocean Sky Intl
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Ocean Sky could be the next multiplier
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Another RTO...lets see. Issues new shares at 35.2cts post-consolidation of 2:1. New issue is about 74.1% of enlarged shares so price with dilution pre-conslidation should be about 13cts.
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| 02-Jan-2015 23:48 |
Nam Cheong
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Nam Cheong
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ha! all the holidays made me blurr blurr liao...
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| 02-Jan-2015 17:54 |
Nam Cheong
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Nam Cheong
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Hm....either share buy-back or direcor buying or but the best will be the confirmation of that US186mil contract. Today price volume action quite strong. Is market buying up in anticipation since it is sort of overdue. If tomorrow still up on strong volume, then maybe something is coming soon. Anyway, if NCL is really confidence on their biz, then a decent dividend for full-year should be in the card. |
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| 02-Jan-2015 15:18 |
Courts Asia
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Courts Asia
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Used to think courts can made it but last few quarters really disappointed. Current price heavily supported by share buy back. How much more $$$ courts needs to burn to keep price up? | ||||
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| 18-Dec-2014 10:08 |
Falcon Energy
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Falcon Energy
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Already chiong to a high of 25.5cts on day after announcing takeover of CHO but retracked back to 23.5cts within the same day. Maybe coy is doing share buyback since it is now trading at 40% discount to BV.
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| 18-Dec-2014 10:03 |
QT Vascular
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QT Vascular Going BIG
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seems like 28cts is both support and resistance.
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| 16-Dec-2014 14:02 |
Nam Cheong
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Nam Cheong
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Hate to say this but NC really losing it in this market..... |
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| 12-Dec-2014 09:47 |
QT Vascular
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QT Vascular Going BIG
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Trying to hold the 28cts line. Who will triumph? |
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| 11-Dec-2014 10:12 |
Nam Cheong
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Nam Cheong
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In good times, market is happy to grant NC risky BTS strategy. But in current times, it does not. Note that previously NC is able to sell vessels with a 10%-15% premium when demand seems strong because faster delivery with its BTS strategy. Now demand is very weak. This premium is unlikely to be there and might even have to lower price. Look at inventroy level of RM837mil and retained earning of RM616mil and 9M net profit of RM261mil. Assuming BTS revenue are booked at cost but they have to offer say 20% discount to sell vessel, then 20% of that RM837mil is about RM167mil which is about 27% of retain earning or 64% or 9M FY14 net profit at risk. You can play around these figures to have a feel of what risk you might be facing. My main point being, part of NC profit is based on BTS revenue which are not supported by any contract but mgmt track record of sale. Before oil price dropped 40%, market grant NC this track record but now market is of the view, past performance is not an indicator of future return and they are discounting that portion of NC profit heavily now. The short-term saving pill for NC is really that confirm of US186mil contract. My view. DYDD. As mentioned earlier, I am no longer vested in NC so take my word with a grain of salt. |
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