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06-Mar-2015 16:36

King Wan / Special Dividend May Be Incoming

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Special div from sale of KTIS share happenning in this quarter seems getting low. There is no news on KWC selling KTIS and KTIS share price has dropped to almost IPO 10baht. KTIS recently announced its FY14 results. Giving only 0.18baht which is less than half of last year 0.39baht. But still keeping KWC is good as a defensive stock in your portfolio.

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06-Mar-2015 16:11

Nam Cheong / Nam Cheong

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Market is so used to NC announcing contract wins one every 1-2 month which it hasn' t been doing since the start of 2015. NC dividend annoucement is likely to be late April and payout mid-May based on last year so lots of time for shortists to profit. However, at 30cts, it is pretty tempting as well. Maybe time to start accum.

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04-Mar-2015 18:31

JES Intl / JES International Holdings

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For the first time I trust the mgmt although is becos of this own up.

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02-Mar-2015 14:37

Vallianz / Will it Break 10cents again???

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I don' t think fund operate in such small qunatity to rely on smaller lots. That 100 share per lots is really meant for retailers. However, the % comm and min comm from brokerage mean if you don' t transact above certain value, the comm will be enough to kill you. For example, if you buy 100 shares of SMRT and if shoot up to $1.50. You still lose a few dollar for a counter that appreciated by 50%!

So I say the brokerage fee is what is killing small retailers and is out of SGX' s jurisdiction.

SGX has started the process. Do brokerage houses want to complete it?

nqing87 ( Date: 02-Mar-2015 14:15) Posted:

come to think of it, sgx probably implement those small lots so that funds will go to the blue chip, to sustain blue chip so that STI index perform decent compare to the other indexes.. i dunno how the small/mid cap indexes still standing strong.. are all counters inside the STI/small/mid/catalist index? or only selected few?

RedEye1811 ( Date: 02-Mar-2015 13:40) Posted:

Agree....lolx...The STI is an unrealistic witch....the overwhelming number of stocks on SGX been headed south and south only regardless of results...the STI stocks only ones moving up causing disconnect with rest of market...SGX market overall is sour but STI rise ytd to suggest all good...but that not true...as you say, 90% stocks gone down...sad sad case....

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02-Mar-2015 09:28

JES Intl / JES International Holdings

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Hard to say. JES has a track record of giving investors false hope. I think the mgmt used to be chefs.

Qanghoo ( Date: 01-Mar-2015 18:55) Posted:

Ask for extension of time to announce financial results. Maybe gone case liao.

Maller ( Date: 01-Mar-2015 13:37) Posted:

Any news? Think if there is no real bad news, will rise next week

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25-Feb-2015 14:54

Vallianz / Will it Break 10cents again???

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Another area to look out for is its receivables . It is starting to balloon up. Better not turn out like Swiber' s pattern. They also took an impariment of US1.6mil to their receivables this quarter. Hope the low oil price will mot results in more impairment.

It is also in net liabilities position so maybe more loan taking coming for WC.

OTOH, its revenue is likely to peak in 2015 at ard US200mil until more contract wins. Assuming their acquisition is only half as good as before, I estimated their FY NP to be ard US36mil barring any once-offs. But sian when looking at the huge debt of US530mil.

RedEye1811 ( Date: 25-Feb-2015 13:45) Posted:

Yes that bargain purchase gain a once-off most likely so need to consider that...need to look at full statement completely to get better idea all the issues...but it a mixed bag with some good points but some negative....Vallianz expanded so much 2014 it makes it hard to compare relative to 2013 so projecting where 2015 headed a little up in air...long term it may have grounds to be good but depends if wish to hold that long (more 12 months) and take risk oil does not bounce back and interest rates stay subdued...

sheerluck ( Date: 25-Feb-2015 13:11) Posted:

Thanks. you calc is more precise.

Indeed, they need to work on their admin and interest cost. The interest for their note is 7.25%-7.5%. Really high and both notes due in 2016.

I also just noted that the US7mil other income from gain on bargain purchase as a result of acquisition of subsidiaries may also be a once-off thing.

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25-Feb-2015 13:11

Vallianz / Will it Break 10cents again???

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RedEye1811 ( Date: 25-Feb-2015 12:34) Posted:

Average NP over Q1 - Q3 is USD$5.479 mill. Assuming NP of Jetlee and OER consistent 2013 to 2014 and NP spread equally over 12 months. Vallianz had Jetlee from end Sept 2014 to Dec 2014 so 3 months. If NP same as 2013 then NP = 280,000 as per yr numbers. So (280,000/12)*3 = 70k. Now for OER it owned end Oct - end Dec 2014 so 2 months. Assuming 2014 NP = 2013 NP then (4,700,000/12)*2 = 783k. So Jetlee and OER only contribute 853k.

Assuming Q4 follow average Q1-Q3 then USD$5.479 mill + USD$853k = USD$6.332 mill. The actual NP was USD$3.99. So diff USD$2.342 between what may expect (assuming consistent profit flows and 2013 = 2014 for aquired) and actual. So it not as bad as the USD$5.96 mill u first argue.

With reduced oil price in last part of 2014 with charter rates down and so forth, it not unreasonable to assume Q4 would be as stong as Q1-Q3. So it not as bad as think. Yep, can be improvements such as a need to control admin expenses as they increase hugely, and could get reduction finance costs. But it not a figure to think is not unrealistic and one to walk off plank about.

sheerluck ( Date: 25-Feb-2015 12:01) Posted:

Ok. But even excluding NewCruz and PTSB, the NP of US3.64mil is still very low considering its previous three quarter average is about US6mil + expected US1.3mil from JetLee and OER.

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25-Feb-2015 13:05

Vallianz / Will it Break 10cents again???

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So that US3mil is key to the question then. Assuming it is once-off, then Vallianz results is pretty consistent comparing this quarter to previous quarter. This will make more sense since Vallianz main bulk is chartering which I am not expecting it to be lumpy between quarters.

At 6.3cts, it is trading at 8 PE and 0.72 to BV.

Its huge debt and financing cost is going to be a drag....

Also will the impact of low oil price start deteriorting its performance in 2015?

nqing87 ( Date: 25-Feb-2015 12:31) Posted:

that' s why i was saying results not that fantastic lol.. bro redeye pointed out that there' s 3mil+ increase in admin cost when compare to previous quarter (due to the acquisitions), for the below par results

sheerluck ( Date: 25-Feb-2015 12:01) Posted:

Ok. But even excluding NewCruz and PTSB, the NP of US3.64mil is still very low considering its previous three quarter average is about US6mil + expected US1.3mil from JetLee and OER.

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25-Feb-2015 12:01

Vallianz / Will it Break 10cents again???

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Ok. But even excluding NewCruz and PTSB, the NP of US3.64mil is still very low considering its previous three quarter average is about US6mil + expected US1.3mil from JetLee and OER.

nqing87 ( Date: 25-Feb-2015 11:48) Posted:

bro, they havent consolidate newcruz & PTSB results yet.. but OER & jetlee think start le..

" In the current financial year, the Group expects to reap maiden contributions from its Indonesian associated company which it acquired at the end of 2014."

" The Group started consolidating the financial results of OER Group since 31 October 2014. "

" The Group started consolidating the financial results of Newcruz Group and PTSB Group on 31 December 2014. "

" The Group started consolidating the financial results of Jetlee Group since 30 September 2014. "

sheerluck ( Date: 25-Feb-2015 11:43) Posted:

Wah, the Q4 results is hopeless if they really consolidated JetLee' s, OER, NewCruz and PTSB into FY14.

JetLee' s six months 2014 NP is US280k. OER 2013 NP is US4.7mil. NewCruz and PTSB 2013 NP is US9.06mil. So if I assume all performed as before, Vallianz' s Q4 NP should be it' s existing business before any of these acquisition + (280k/2 + 4700/4 + 9060/4). The four acquisition should contribute about US3.6mil already. If Vallianz maintained its quarterly NP of about US6mil, then Q4 NP should be about US9.6mil. Actual Q4 NP only US3.64mil???? That' s only 1/3 what is shuld be.

What is going on in Vallianz and with all these acquisitions?

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25-Feb-2015 11:43

Vallianz / Will it Break 10cents again???

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25-Feb-2015 11:19

QT Vascular / QT Vascular Going BIG

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Was expecting more sale with hype about new products approval and such but sale increase only 6% from Q3 to Q4. The pace is too slow.

I noticed that is a big jump in admin exp in Q4 for both FY13 and FY14 of about US2.5mil. What was that jump about? Their AR did not reveal any info on that. Why they don' t want to disclose more info?

Spent US10mil on research and developement and generated revenue of US13mil. Still got a long way to go man.

A comparison to 2013 in brief:

In 2013, to generate US5.5mil rev, need to spend US6mil on COGS, US7.7mil on sale & marketing and a further $7.7mil on admin. So spent US21.4mil to generate US5.5mil.

In 2014, to generate US13.2mil rev, need to spend US9.8mil on COGS, US8.8mil on sale & marketing and a further $10.7mil on admin. So spent US29.5mil to generate US13.2mil. So the US8mil increase in rev is offset by US8mil increase in expenditure.

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12-Feb-2015 18:57

Courts Asia / Courts Asia

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After all the big talk on cost saving, Courts still only managed to eke out $4mil profit this quarter, half of what I expect them to achieve. 9m till date, NP is only one-third of FY14 total NP. Way below last year and way way way below last last year.

sheerluck ( Date: 13-Nov-2014 13:38) Posted:

Courts hopeless liao......let see got any saving grace or not from their cost saving measures......

Headcount rationalisation - Expected 10% reduction in Group&rsquo s wages and salaries = ~0.1 * $61mil = $6.1mil or $1.5mil per Q

Closure of loss making stores - 1H FY14/15 retailing losses incurred for the closed stores amounting up to S$0.8 million = ~$0.8mil or $0.4mil per Q

Reduction of distribution and warehouse cost - Distribution cost as a percentage of merchandise sales decrease by 0.7% of merchandise sales = ~0.007 * $178.6mil = $1.25mil per Q

Renegotiation of contracts and others - Reduce administrative expenses by 2% = ~0.02 * ($37mil-$3mil) = $0.7mil per Q.

Add back one-off of $3mil

Expect Q3 profit on same reveune is $1.7+$0.4+$1.5+$1.25+$0.7+$3 =$8.5mil

If after all this cost saving measures, Courts top mgmt still cannot deliver a minimum of $8.5mil net profit for Q3, that is seriously a cock-up.

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20-Jan-2015 13:03

QT Vascular / QT Vascular Going BIG

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Huh???? Sellers from UOB side??? CIMB and UOB Kay Hian both promote this coy. UOB Kay Hian somemore placement agent. Sellers from UOB side????

lifeisgood ( Date: 20-Jan-2015 12:36) Posted:

Is it time to wake up liao? UOB seller today.

notsostupid ( Date: 20-Jan-2015 10:13) Posted:

Can tell short-sellers quite desperate to stop price rise.

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15-Jan-2015 21:12

Resources Prima / Resource prima to climb further?

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For the 28 Oct 2013 attack, Sky One' s NAV per share was 9.2cts. It dropped from a high of 47cts (~ 5 times BV) to a low of 4cts before closing at 9.2cts ie its BV.

Sky one completed RTO of Resources Prima Group (RPG) on 13 Nov 2014. They issued 1,325million shares to RPG to acquire their business. Here is the bit I need SJers to verify: RPG' s NAV seems to be about HKD20mil only. They placed out 83mil share at 20cts so raking in $16.6mil in cash. Sky one' s NAV baed on their half-year report is HKD64.7mil. So the total NAV is roughly (20+64.7)*0.17 +16.6 = SGD31mil. The outstanding shares is now 1,833mil giving a NAV per share of 1.7cts. Based on the closing price of 10.1cts, it is still 6 times BV.

There is the thing I dislike about RTO where they value a business so high that they issue tons and tons of shares to the business owners. Even when price dropped from 20cts to 10cts, those 1,325mil share is still worth SGD 132.5mil vs a business whose NAV is only HKD20mil?

Which way get rich faster?

To re-iterate, I need SJers to verify RPG' s NAV.

Whether short sell or real dump, you decide. Not a call to influence anything. DYDD.

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15-Jan-2015 16:44

Resources Prima / Resource prima to climb further?

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Aiyo. I wish I know also.

domanic ( Date: 15-Jan-2015 16:40) Posted:

so tomorrow round 2 or rebound ..

sheerluck ( Date: 15-Jan-2015 16:37) Posted:

There is a rebond in the next few days and the price doubled from its lowest but it never goes anywhere near to its pre-crashed price.

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15-Jan-2015 16:39

Resources Prima / Resource prima to climb further?

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Sounded like a good place to work.

edwinjup ( Date: 15-Jan-2015 16:34) Posted:

No productivity...many years..one case..lol

Spaceship ( Date: 15-Jan-2015 16:30) Posted:

ABL so far no conclusion rite?

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15-Jan-2015 16:37

Resources Prima / Resource prima to climb further?

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There is a rebond in the next few days and the price doubled from its lowest but it never goes anywhere near to its pre-crashed price.

crashburner ( Date: 15-Jan-2015 16:27) Posted:

what happened after that? need to hold for another 2 years for a rally?

sheerluck ( Date: 15-Jan-2015 16:21) Posted:

Its precessor Sky One was attacked on 28 Oct 2013. Dropped to a low of -90% before closing at -80%. Scary!

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15-Jan-2015 16:30

Resources Prima / Resource prima to climb further?

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Don' t know about the CFD bit. This round dropped to a low of -50% and now looking at -43%. Half the intensity of the previous attack.

domanic ( Date: 15-Jan-2015 16:22) Posted:

It' s happening again.. Btw no cfd offer to short this right .. Still not seeing that last minute rally..

sheerluck ( Date: 15-Jan-2015 16:21) Posted:

Its precessor Sky One was attacked on 28 Oct 2013. Dropped to a low of -90% before closing at -80%. Scary!

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15-Jan-2015 16:27

Resources Prima / Resource prima to climb further?

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ash902 ( Date: 15-Jan-2015 16:25) Posted:

sgx happy only. commission many many

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15-Jan-2015 16:21

Resources Prima / Resource prima to climb further?

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Its precessor Sky One was attacked on 28 Oct 2013. Dropped to a low of -90% before closing at -80%. Scary!

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