ShareJunction - Member Posts

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If you look at the chart, M1 had also hit this price way back in 2006 and 2007.

nngeeh ( Date: 26-Jan-2016 08:45) Posted:

M1' s price has gone down to the 2010 price in just few weeks. This is crazy.

1oopls ( Date: 25-Jan-2016 21:54) Posted:

Everyday sell down, demand for it should be coming

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M1' s price has gone down to the 2010 price in just few weeks. This is crazy.

1oopls ( Date: 25-Jan-2016 21:54) Posted:

Everyday sell down, demand for it should be coming

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Fully agreed. Based on the FY report, the business looks stable, and there is nothing alarimg to warrant such drastic drop in share price. The current price which offers close to 7% looks attractive.

Operating revenue for FY2015 increased 7.5% to S$1,157.2 million

Net profit after tax increased 1.5% to S$178.5 million

Based on current economic outlook and barring unforeseen circumstances, M1 anticipates stable performance for the year 2016.

spore1 ( Date: 25-Jan-2016 15:53) Posted:

Final dividend of 8.3 cents + interim 7 cents Total yield of 6.8% at 2.25 this is really gd price for a defensive play. The yield is much higher than the other 2 telcos

spore1 ( Date: 25-Jan-2016 13:10) Posted:

Singtel & Starhub prices UP. M1 being squeeze down. Waiting for the moment to squeeze out the shortist

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The NAV includes mainly the Peru asset which is being sold. The 1.7 USD billion is buying most of the NAV. So, when you minus 1.7 (offer for Peru asset which constitute most of the NAV)-1.2( liability), and then you add the NAV... Won' t you have included the Peru asset twice in your calculation?

Or are you saying the NAV value that you are using is already excluding the Peru asset?

Leongsan ( Date: 09-Jan-2016 09:23) Posted:

Should it not be NAV plus profit or loss on sale of Peru assets?

PARD also has loans and notes which need to be paid. So is the holding company and the Ngs?

Why is HSBC appearing to be so anti NGs. The other banks.DBS Citic and Rabo, I think, are more supportive.

My guess S 60 to 80 cents about there.

Do you think share has little free float and cornered?

The US$1.7 bil price is fair I think. They paid US$800 for Copeinca, plus US$250m notes.for 10%quota, The other old 7% at same price =

China need this resource badly for piglets and food. Aqua culture is being replaced by plant feed Omega 6 not 3 in farm bred salmon that are not ocean going

nngeeh ( Date: 09-Jan-2016 00:08) Posted:

Thanks Bro.

Question,

Are you adding NAV + Liability + Balance to get 85.2? Shouldn' t it be NAV - Liability, right? Secondly, most of the NAV comprises of the Peru asset which will be sold. After selling Peru, i don' t think there is much left in the other assets. i think it should be NAV = Offer(Peru asset) - liability?

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Thanks Bro.

Question,

Are you adding NAV + Liability + Balance to get 85.2? Shouldn' t it be NAV - Liability, right? Secondly, most of the NAV comprises of the Peru asset which will be sold. After selling Peru, i don' t think there is much left in the other assets. i think it should be NAV = Offer(Peru asset) - liability?

Qanghoo ( Date: 08-Jan-2016 22:33) Posted:

Brother, apologies I double counted. Bro ysh is correct. Rough com below (US cts) :

NAV = 39

Lia/sh = 32.6

Bal fr sale/sh = 13.6

Total = 85.2 (SGD 1.22)

nngeeh ( Date: 08-Jan-2016 20:55) Posted:

Bro Qanghoo and ysh2006, could you share how you derive at the price of 0.80 SGD and 1.30?

What i read was if the deal of 1.7 Billion USD is realised, they will still need to clear the liabilities of USD 1.2 Billion. The remaining amount will probably be around 500 Million USD. The current outstanding shares are 3,683.44 mm. This will work out to be around 0.13 USD per share (around 0.19 SGD based on exchange of 1.43). Of cause, i have no calculated their other assets. Their current cash is around 55 M (around 0. 015 per share).

Did i miss any calculation? Seems to be far off from your projected price.

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Bro Qanghoo and ysh2006, could you share how you derive at the price of 0.80 SGD and 1.30?

What i read was if the deal of 1.7 Billion USD is realised, they will still need to clear the liabilities of USD 1.2 Billion. The remaining amount will probably be around 500 Million USD. The current outstanding shares are 3,683.44 mm. This will work out to be around 0.13 USD per share (around 0.19 SGD based on exchange of 1.43). Of cause, i have no calculated their other assets. Their current cash is around 55 M (around 0. 015 per share).

Did i miss any calculation? Seems to be far off from your projected price.

Qanghoo ( Date: 08-Jan-2016 10:30) Posted:

My estimate is abt 80c SGD cash, after settling a debt, if 1.7bil comes through. May be possible. PRC coys have some track record of paying attractive px to lay hands on controlling scarce resources, n in this case Peru seems a rich anchovy fishing ground. As another example of gd buyout px, look further than HTL.

Leongsan ( Date: 08-Jan-2016 09:56) Posted:

How you come to the conclusion of $1.30? Please share

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i hated counters with convertable loan ..... they will keep converting at a discount ..... and sell down. it' s hard to go up .... just look at magnus

derekchong ( Date: 07-Jan-2016 09:53) Posted:

gold price going up fast

but this counter not moving.

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When did Tritech start investing in Terratech? If they got it via private placement, and disposing it now, it' ll be a huge lost to them ... won' t look good on their next q report.

victortan ( Date: 06-Jan-2016 00:02) Posted:

dont know good news or bad, Tritech selling it stake in terratech.

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Their bond price has raisen from 49 to 59 after the announcement. Seems that their bond price is starting to recover.

However, CFG' s price plunged due to CAD investigation, and that was before the HSBC tried to liquidate CFG. If CFG lifted the suspension, will be price bounced back?

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I saw that pattern too. 2 months back, the price will normally drop in the morning, and will always end up at 1.85 at closing consistently. The pattern has changed ... and it' s now closing at 1.8.

It doesn' t look like distribution to me.

I fully agreed that this share is undervalued .... the P/B is 0.56 and the P/E is low .... and cash rich. Will hope that they really delist or gave cash back to shareholders like what IPC is doing now.

Qanghoo ( Date: 31-Dec-2015 22:22) Posted:

Today, there was one transaction buy up at 1.80 for 250k shares. Don' t know who can be the one. But shows buying interest, I think. Interestingly, the latest ' Hong Leong' purchase was made by a spore HC coy n not a malaysian one. As for GResidence, it seems to have disappeared from the URA site for Nov 15. so, presumably all sold liao. My view is this coy extremely undervalued. But I think HL coy not likely to be delisted.

nngeeh ( Date: 31-Dec-2015 16:28) Posted:

Hi Bro Edwin, i just checked the URA website and found that there were many transcation for Goodwood Residence this year from March till November. I think they have cleared most of the unsold units this year. Do you still think if they might still delist? I saw HL made purchase from open market recently.

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Hi Bro Edwin, i just checked the URA website and found that there were many transcation for Goodwood Residence this year from March till November. I think they have cleared most of the unsold units this year. Do you still think if they might still delist? I saw HL made purchase from open market recently.

edwinjup ( Date: 16-Oct-2015 20:17) Posted:

Unsold GuocoLand?s Goodwood Residence could bring a fine of $104.7m. So...it would "force " guocoland to delist before dec 2015 ??.2years after top.....damn good.1 q.result even without special items.....so think can wait for some good news before year end.......cheers....possible another keppel buyout...i prefer $3.88 or $4.88....lol

Qanghoo ( Date: 21-Aug-2015 12:16) Posted:

Any brothers read the news this GLL made 580 mil selling a Beijing property? That translates into eps of 50c+. Also, according to the coy, their upmkt development at Leedon very well received n high % sold. So, maybe some special div coming. Good for QLC to cover his losses in Ezion too.

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Thanks Bro

Goldfinger ( Date: 30-Dec-2015 23:49) Posted:

Sorry, not sure why the link doesn' t work here - anyway, think you guys will know how to find this source. Happy reading.

Goldfinger ( Date: 30-Dec-2015 23:46) Posted:

Think I found the source of the article, in The Australian newspaper. This makes the entire saga a lot more interesting don' t you think? http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/property/ascendass-14bn-hotels-portfolio-for-sale/news-story/cdd0f60e971779a3ef1637ace8492dcc

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Hi Bro,

Could you help to paste the news? I' m interested to know about A1.4Billion. Many Thanks.

ecekca ( Date: 30-Dec-2015 21:20) Posted:

this news only on bloomberg terminal.

just some news on this..but no article ..

Goldfinger ( Date: 30-Dec-2015 18:21) Posted:

Can you share the article? Tk

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If you do a comparison ... OCBC is trading almost at the NAV whereas Riverstone is trading at 6x NAV. OCBC is giving consistently around 4% whereas Riverstone is giving less than 3%.

In terms of capital gain ... i trust OCBC has the potential to reach back $10+, and i trust OCBC to be giving dividend consistently vs Riverstone. If you buy OCBC (vs Riverstone) .... even if the market crashes.... i believe OCBC will still bounce back to its current level. Can you really sure Riverstone can go back to it' s currently level if the price crashed back to maybe 2x NAV?

n3wbie ( Date: 30-Dec-2015 11:13) Posted:

You are right in the opportunity cost aspect as the downside outweighs the upside on the counter. Dont think many brokerages have scrip to borrow for short-sell though.

nngeeh ( Date: 30-Dec-2015 10:01) Posted:

The scary part is that SGX is a shortist haven (I read somewhere that SGX is the second worst after greece in terms of performance this year). Any slight bad news, or BB remove support .... the share price will go south drastically as seen in other share.

Why take a risk on an expensive stock with low yield when there are other blue chips that give better yield, more resilient and with better capital gain potential than to risk it with this share that is getting close to 6x NAV?

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The scary part is that SGX is a shortist haven (I read somewhere that SGX is the second worst after greece in terms of performance this year). Any slight bad news, or BB remove support .... the share price will go south drastically as seen in other share.

Why take a risk on an expensive stock with low yield when there are other blue chips that give better yield, more resilient and with better capital gain potential than to risk it with this share that is getting close to 6x NAV?

n3wbie ( Date: 30-Dec-2015 09:24) Posted:

From a valuation perspective, I dont think it really makes sense to benchmark a growth company (particularly manufacturing company) to its NAV. PE and EV/EBITDA or even metrics involving the company' s ability to generate FCF are more relevant indicators.

One other reason why it is trading at a higher multiple (PB terms) is due to the fact that it is listed in SG (traded in SGD) while its reporting currency is in MYR, therefore the assets are also denominated in MYR which has seen quite a significant depreciation since the start of 2015.

It is also worth noting that some of Riverstone' s peers such as Hartalega and Kossan are trading at even higher valuations. From a top-down approach, the gloves manufacturing sector is well favoured by the market - cheap raw material prices, favourable USD/MYR, expansion plans to improve EPS which are supported by increased global demand.

Just my own humble opinion.

nngeeh ( Date: 30-Dec-2015 08:50) Posted:

BB is trying to use the bonus as a reason to push up the share price.

The higher the price, the P/B is higher. If you buy now, you are paying almost close to 6x the NAV. Don' t fall for their trap. Bonus doesn' t change the NAV .... you will still be paying for an expensive stock that possible to collapse big time. Imagine if the price fall back from 6x to 1x NAV !!!!!

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BB is trying to use the bonus as a reason to push up the share price.

The higher the price, the P/B is higher. If you buy now, you are paying almost close to 6x the NAV. Don' t fall for their trap. Bonus doesn' t change the NAV .... you will still be paying for an expensive stock that possible to collapse big time. Imagine if the price fall back from 6x to 1x NAV !!!!!

nngeeh ( Date: 29-Dec-2015 15:59) Posted:

It' s almost hitting $2.40.

It' s proposing to give a bonus share 1 for 1. However, this doesnt change the fact that this is a super expensive stock of NAV more than 5x, PE more than 20. Be careful.

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Hopefully. This is a defensive stock, and will fare better than pure O& G related blue-chip like SembC Marine. Beside the Marine sector, it can also depends on Aerospace, Electronics and Land systems sectors.

Furthermore, they also get on Marine Corps' shortlist for $2b contract in a two-year- long evaluation againest the other rival British defence manufacturer BAE Systems. The Pentagon on Tuesday said each firm will have to build 16 vehicles to be delivered from January till 2017 for field tests, with the eventual winner producing more than 200 vehicles by 2020.

The anticipation for this deal could help to support the price even though the result could only be known in 2017.

Qanghoo ( Date: 29-Dec-2015 20:34) Posted:

Probably positioning for Jan rise when funds are back?

nngeeh ( Date: 29-Dec-2015 18:12) Posted:

Surprisingly, the price closed at $3.02 even though it reached $2.99 for the last 2 days. I think yesterday was T+5 since the last run up from 2.8+ .... so, there was some selling. Looks like the selling was well absorbed for the past 2 days. Does this mean that the share can proceed to move up north from now on?

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The only slight difference is KrisEnergy is an associated company of Keppel. With the completion of the rights issue which Keppel subscribed quite a significant amount of rights share, i think KrisEnergy has better backing compare with Rex (or maybe RH).

sheerluck ( Date: 29-Dec-2015 17:35) Posted:

Low oil price is the only bad news required for these E& P coy. KRIS, REX & RH Petrogas all same. Like US Shale coy, one by one they will close shop when cash flow is fried up.

lglg666 ( Date: 29-Dec-2015 17:28) Posted:

May have bad news.....kena dumped?

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Surprisingly, the price closed at $3.02 even though it reached $2.99 for the last 2 days. I think yesterday was T+5 since the last run up from 2.8+ .... so, there was some selling. Looks like the selling was well absorbed for the past 2 days. Does this mean that the share can proceed to move up north from now on?

nngeeh ( Date: 29-Dec-2015 16:05) Posted:

It' s very hard to tell whether it' s accumulating or distributing. The price hovers between $3 and $3.01. One moment, the buy queue at $3 was 99 (and sell queue was less than 50), the next moment, it swaps .... the buy queue of $3 was 20, and sell queue at $3.01 was 99. It keeps swapping.

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The transacted volume is quite significant (around 10K lots done) on few occasion however the price stayed stagnantbetween the range of 0.031~ 0.034 . I don' t believe retailers will buy at this current price as the price is not moving.

Are we expecting some news soon? Is BB distributing or accumulating or just trading between themselves.....

If there is volume and the price stays within a range .... i believe there will be movement soon. Just couldn' t figure out whether it' s good or bad news.

Greatman ( Date: 29-Dec-2015 17:45) Posted:

When?

chongahh ( Date: 25-Nov-2015 21:46) Posted:

watch...........coming...........soon..........