ShareJunction - Member Posts

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In 3Q, their cash reduced by only $4M (from $52M to $48M) but the loan increased by $13M. Another word, they will be on deficit of $17M every qtr if they need to continue to upgrade the infrastructure in 2017 as per mandate fm gov and maintaining the same div.

In full yr, they will need additional $68M.

Are they going to going to achieve this by loan (already 1.2B), reducing the debt which will bring down the interest, utilise from their cash which can last only 2Q, or maybe even raise funds via placement or Rights.

Unless they have completed the upgrade and remove the $19M capex expenditure, they can' t maintain the same div. they need $20M to maintain the same div payout.

junction ( Date: 21-Dec-2016 15:09) Posted:

The company reported they have refinanced at a lower cost and there will be no refiancing for the next 4 years. They have also reported they are not expecting not much changes in 2017 earnings/distribution. So I think selling is overdone. I will collect a bit more at crrent prices. I cannot predict the short sellors motive but I hope Temasik, the largest shareholder, will initiate a buy and catch the shortsellers. Then we have a show to see,.

GuavaXF30 ( Date: 21-Dec-2016 09:25) Posted:

I am keeping my lots but I will not add for now. Wait for better clarity.

The company have to reassure investors that their business model will continue to generate cash from operations. And not borrowings.

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Sorry, typo errors

Could you help to share where can i find the announcement of their commitment to retain the same div fr 2017 to be the same as 2016?

This share has been on my watchlist as Temasek is vested. However, i' m still confuse on how AAPT is able to deliver the div?

Q3 result: Total shares : 1436 million shares

Net profit (after tax, Intest and Amor) : $10.6M (after interest of $14M). Per share per qtr - 0.0074 (profit divide by number of share)

Cap: $19.7M

Div: 23M (per qtr) - for their qtr div of $0.01625

Even if AAPT has completed the infrastructure upgrade (and need not spend cap $19.7M), and all net profit of $10.6M is allocated to div, it' ll still be just $0.007 per qtr (and not the current $0.01625). Unless AAPT can clear the loan (without needing to pay the $14M interest), and doesn' t need to invest in cap ... and use the net profit of $24.6M ($10.6M + $14M from interest) to maintain the div of $0.01625 ($23M).

Can someone enlighten me on how AAPT can maintain the div .... as it seems that they are having negative free cash flow. Their net profit can' t even cover the capex ... where does the fund come from to pay the div? Has anyone attended the EGM and did they share anything about this?

nngeeh ( Date: 23-Dec-2016 17:55) Posted:

Could you help to share where can i find the announcement of their commitment to retain the same div fr 2017 to be the same as 2016?

This share has been on my watchlist as Temasek is vested. However, i' m still confuse on how AAPT is able to deliver the div?

Q3 result: Total shares : 1436 million shares

Net profit (after tax, Intest and Amor) : $10.6M (after interest of $14M). Per share per qtr - 0.0074 (profit divide by number of share)

Cap: $19.7M

Div: 23M (per qtr) - for their qtr div of $0.01625

Even if AAPT has completed the infrastructure upgrade (and need not spend cap $19.7M), and all net profit of $14M is allocated to div, it' ll still be just $0.007 per qtr (and not the current $0.01625). Unless AAPT can clear the loan (with needing to pay the $14M interest), and doesn' t need to invest in cap ... and use the net profit of $24.6M ($10.6M + $14M from interest) to maintain the div of $0.01625 ($23M).

Can someone enlighten me on how AAPT can maintain the div .... as it seems that they are having negative free cash flow. Their net profit can' t even cover the capex ... where does the fund come from to pay the div? Has anyone attended the EGM and did they share anything about this?

halleluyah ( Date: 23-Dec-2016 13:13) Posted:

the coming div fr 2017 will b 0.022 if is still the same as 2016....am still holding...

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Could you help to share where can i find the announcement of their commitment to retain the same div fr 2017 to be the same as 2016?

This share has been on my watchlist as Temasek is vested. However, i' m still confuse on how AAPT is able to deliver the div?

Q3 result: Total shares : 1436 million shares

Net profit (after tax, Intest and Amor) : $10.6M (after interest of $14M). Per share per qtr - 0.0074 (profit divide by number of share)

Cap: $19.7M

Div: 23M (per qtr) - for their qtr div of $0.01625

Even if AAPT has completed the infrastructure upgrade (and need not spend cap $19.7M), and all net profit of $14M is allocated to div, it' ll still be just $0.007 per qtr (and not the current $0.01625). Unless AAPT can clear the loan (with needing to pay the $14M interest), and doesn' t need to invest in cap ... and use the net profit of $24.6M ($10.6M + $14M from interest) to maintain the div of $0.01625 ($23M).

Can someone enlighten me on how AAPT can maintain the div .... as it seems that they are having negative free cash flow. Their net profit can' t even cover the capex ... where does the fund come from to pay the div? Has anyone attended the EGM and did they share anything about this?

halleluyah ( Date: 23-Dec-2016 13:13) Posted:

the coming div fr 2017 will b 0.022 if is still the same as 2016....am still holding...

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Technically, yes - they are profitable (if you exclude the capex and dividend). But if you take into consideration of div and capex .... they will need additional loan to sustain. We' ll have to see after 2017 ... when if they can reduce the capex to be below their profit

pinkowl ( Date: 20-Dec-2016 11:31) Posted:

Yes. Noted that it' s still profitable after accounting for ITDA.

nngeeh ( Date: 20-Dec-2016 11:12) Posted:

Hi Pinkowl, I got the value from their 3rd Qtr report. You can look at their asset which value the license as $1.2B (intangible asset).

Even though the operation cash flow is reflected as $42M, but is before tax, interest and amortisation. The amortisation of 12M (which is from the capex from previous qtr or last year (not sure)) $12M). This $12M is actually made up of equipment which in theory ... not that easily to liquidate .... and if you really liquadate it, you can only get back a fraction of the purchase value.

If you deduct the amortisation, Tax interest and amortisation, and other minor cost, the profit is actually $10M.

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Hi Pinkowl, I got the value from their 3rd Qtr report. You can look at their asset which value the license as $1.2B (intangible asset).

Even though the operation cash flow is reflected as $42M, but is before tax, interest and amortisation. The amortisation of 12M (which is from the capex from previous qtr or last year (not sure)) $12M). This $12M is actually made up of equipment which in theory ... not that easily to liquidate .... and if you really liquadate it, you can only get back a fraction of the purchase value.

If you deduct the amortisation, Tax interest and amortisation, and other minor cost, the profit is actually $10M.

pinkowl ( Date: 20-Dec-2016 10:42) Posted:

I' m not an expert in FA. Have recently re-read their financial statement, and interpret that they are able to service their interest from the stable earnings they receive (JeremyOw, did I interpret correctly? ).

So my intention is to wait till they are done with the infrastructure layout and see if their results will improve. Maybe in 2017 or 2018.

nngeeh ( Date: 20-Dec-2016 10:29) Posted:

Thanks Pinkowl

Beside the high capex, i' m worried about the high debt of 1.2B vs 48M cash on hand. Unlike REIT, the assets are made up of multiple properties which the company can liquidate individual property to reduce debb, the asset tha AAPT is made up mainly of the Taiwan license which they value it at $2.3B. They can' t liquidate the license. So ...their debt will going up, and the additional cash generated from profit is going back into the capex. They are also using the current cash, and loan to fund the capex (as profit is unable to cover) and dividend ... it' s not sustainable.

If you look at China Fish, their main asset is the fishing license in Peru which is valued at more than $1B. When they ran into cashflow problem, as they can' t liquidate the license .... they end up filling for chapter 11 (of cause, beside the debt problem, they also were under CAD investigation).

Maybe we can start looking after 2017 when their capex is going down ... and below the profit. We' ll also need to know how they plan to reduce the $1.2B debt.

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Thanks Pinkowl

Beside the high capex, i' m worried about the high debt of 1.2B vs 48M cash on hand. Unlike REIT, the assets are made up of multiple properties which the company can liquidate individual property to reduce debb, the asset tha AAPT is made up mainly of the Taiwan license which they value it at $2.3B. They can' t liquidate the license. So ...their debt will going up, and the additional cash generated from profit is going back into the capex. They are also using the current cash, and loan to fund the capex (as profit is unable to cover) and dividend ... it' s not sustainable.

If you look at China Fish, their main asset is the fishing license in Peru which is valued at more than $1B. When they ran into cashflow problem, as they can' t liquidate the license .... they end up filling for chapter 11 (of cause, beside the debt problem, they also were under CAD investigation).

Maybe we can start looking after 2017 when their capex is going down ... and below the profit. We' ll also need to know how they plan to reduce the $1.2B debt.

pinkowl ( Date: 20-Dec-2016 00:36) Posted:

Guys, APTT price started plunging when Taiwan announced the compulsory requirement for industry to upgrade to digital TV. Hence, they have increased their expenditure significantly on infrastructure. The upgrade (if i remember correctly) will take place till 2017. Separately, they are awaiting for content approval before implementing expansion to Taichung (or something like that). =)

U can visit their website to read up more.

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Hi Jeremyow, Thanks for the explanation. Actually, if we look at just net cash flow, it may not gives a good picture too. The company could be getting fund via loan (Financial Cash Flow), and due to the loan, its reflecting positive net cash flow. This is not a good reflection of the health of the company even though it' s showing positive net cash flow.

Their 3Q reports

Operating Cash Flow - 42M

Investment cash flow - (19M) capex which mainly made up of equipment

Financial - 26M (Partly due to additional loan)

Net cash flow is (4M)

If you look into the operating cash flow, it' s actually made up of profit of 10M (but add back the tax, amortisation (capex cost fm last Q), interest,etc)... it seems that whatever cash that comes from the profit will go back into capital expenditure, and dividend).

Their loan has increased from $1183M (31 Dec 2015) to $1231M (30 Sep 2016). As You have mentioned, the cash has also decreased. Until I see that their capex is less than the actual profit after deducting tax, interest.... I will stay on the sideline first.

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Can anyone help to confirm if my understanding of their 3Q result is correct?

Profit after Amortisation, Interest, income tax - $10.6M

Capex (under Invest activities for purchase equipment, plant) - $19.8M

Even though they have $10.6M profit, but they will still need to spend around $20M for capex. When i look at their " Financial activities" , it seems that the distribution for dividend is around $23M. So, i wonder who do they generate additional cash for dividend?

Under cash financial ... repayment of borrowing is $124M,, but borrowings is around $137M. It seems that they are borrowing more than they are returning. As long as their capex spending is high .... in long run, i' m don' t think they can maintain such high yield. Please correct if my understanding is wrong. Thanks

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NSL completed the disposal. The NAV has risen to $1.8 which is made of $1.3 cash. No debt. NSL will be reporting the final year report in Feb 2017.

Back in 2014, when they reported the FY in Feb, it was also shown that the NAV had risen from $1.5 to $1.8, and a $0.5c div was declared. Will history repeat in Feb?

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If the sale is successful, the NAV will increase from 1.5 to 1.8. Base on past experience, they will distribute the proceeds. TP is above $1.7

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Went in recently. Betting that the sales will be completed within the next 2 months... and NSL will reward the shareholders handsomely as per in the past.

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Took partial profit @ 0.28. Hope that it' ll go up more .... There are transcations today.

nngeeh ( Date: 03-Nov-2016 18:12) Posted:

I think the result looks great. You need to look deeper to understand the FCF. The key area is always to look at the operating cash flow.

Operating cash flow: 7.7M (inflow), Investment cash flow: 0.884 M (Outflow), Financial Cash Flow: 7M (outflow). The main reason for financial cash flow (outflow) is due to bank repayment of 14M

The CFC is 0.316M (outflow) ... which is slightly negative ... but this is because of the bank repayment. The key parameter - Operating cash flow is actually positive of 7.7M.

The NAV has increased to 0.745 (vs current price of 0.22). This is 29% of the NAV that is made up of cash and properties. Their cash is 29M (around 0.22/ share).

At cash of 0.22/share, they definitely can afford interim dividend of 2c (and as it' s stated interim ... could we be expecting another div in 3 mths when they announce FY report). Just went in again today.

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I think the result looks great. You need to look deeper to understand the FCF. The key area is always to look at the operating cash flow.

Operating cash flow: 7.7M (inflow), Investment cash flow: 0.884 M (Outflow), Financial Cash Flow: 7M (outflow). The main reason for financial cash flow (outflow) is due to bank repayment of 14M

The CFC is 0.316M (outflow) ... which is slightly negative ... but this is because of the bank repayment. The key parameter - Operating cash flow is actually positive of 7.7M.

The NAV has increased to 0.745 (vs current price of 0.22). This is 29% of the NAV that is made up of cash and properties. Their cash is 29M (around 0.22/ share).

At cash of 0.22/share, they definitely can afford interim dividend of 2c (and as it' s stated interim ... could we be expecting another div in 3 mths when they announce FY report). Just went in again today.

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Hyflux sold galaxy at ard 190million. They will not face any funding issue in near future... and the preferential will need to be redeem in 1.5 yrs. They will surely redeem to avoid step up... to avoid increase of future borrowing cost (it allow step up to 8%.. future bond issue may need to follow that yirld). Why are retailers so afraid... as the annual yield now is close to 10% at the current price.

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The market cap for Hyflux is not high .... If it runs into problem, Temasek can take over easily ... just like SMRT.

Qanghoo ( Date: 27-Oct-2016 09:49) Posted:

Hyflux gonna conk liao. Yet, they are still tendering for mega desalination project by PUB. How is it possible?

Qanghoo ( Date: 27-Oct-2016 09:48) Posted:

If u read the article I posted further down though, we' d see that people are seemingly selling debt securities indiscriminately out of fear of defaults everywhere, without considering nature of coys' businesses. N fear mongering, some at least mischievious is stoking the raging fire. Even so called analysts seem to be focusing primarily on debt n almost completely disregarding weighing the stability of incomes of coys.

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Went in at 93.3. I am betting that Ah Gong will continue to support Hyflux if they need additional fund. Furthermore, if i take reference of their other bond (6% PreCapSec) which is trading at 0.951, this preferential share' s price should be higher as it' ll be redeem in Apr 2018 at $100 (or step up to 8%) .... meaning ... if we include the 3 other div payment + the different between the current price and redeem price ... with the duration of 1.5 years, the yield is around 10%.

If Hyflux is unable to pay the div for this preference share .. it will also not be able to pay for the other preferential bond (6% PreCapSec). There is no reason for this preferential share to be trading at the lower value that 6% PreCapSec.

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Same here. I believe more in Asdew. The 400 mil warrants sales in via off market... and not offloaded thru open market. I am interested to know who is the opposite party who is buying this. There could always be a possibility that the CEO might have sufficient fund to convert the warrant and the opposite party is willing to convert the warrant to inject fund.

Either way... both Asdew and the warrant buyer see potential in this counter... especially now when the pennies are running and they can spin news using Walmart using their Disa.

Definitely, there will be competition in future, but they are already ahead with the Walmart POC. and when investing in penny... I am more interested on the stories that they can spin in near future.

MichaelSchenker ( Date: 25-Oct-2016 21:28) Posted:

I tend to agree with you more.

I have not done so, but I intend to wager on this counter.

At most I will lose 1 cent, and base on the potential of DiSa, and if WalMart, being a reference customer, the patented product turns out well, we are looking at 10 cents, 20 cents.

This is what I like about penny stocks, if you dare!

SmallSmall ( Date: 25-Oct-2016 21:12) Posted:

400 mil warrants is quite a substantial stake. I choose to believe it has gone to friendly parties who believes their DiSa - Point-of-Sale Activation Proof-of-Concept has neared the commercialization stage. Placees do come out with money too to subscribe for shares. Since they are prepared to cough out the cash they must have done their due diligence as well.
Never like this company till the placement announcements involving Asdew. With the 400 mil warrant sales the story gets more interesting.
No rights no wrongs. To each his own :)

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I doubt we' ll see any announcement soon as the company can' t do buyback if there are any pending news in near future.

My guess is that it' s either to encourage warrant holders to exercise it, or to help Mitsu looks better on their investment in Olam. They bought the share price at $2.7 .... and will need to reports fair value loss .... i think by pushing it to $2.1, it may look slight better comparing few months back before Olam started the buyback. I still don' t understand why they will want to invest at $2.7 when Olam' s price was less than $2 before they invested.

FATABA ( Date: 09-Sep-2016 12:50) Posted:

I still think there is more to it. This note is series 10 , not new...but an addon to an existing one. Oct start of trade with Mit tradig house for Japan.
( nuts and edible products would contribute to OLam .....as this is new and additional to their existing bz)
I rule out privatising as there is no need for this now. More so , I think it will drive up Olam share price as Mitsu pay a higher price for there share.
Keeping my finger cross.

sun233 ( Date: 09-Sep-2016 08:03) Posted:

Now we know why they have been supporting price............

Olam sells US$150m senior notes

EP 9, 20165:50 AM

Singapore

OLAM International has sold a US$150 million five-year senior notes under its US$5 billion euro medium term note programme.

The notes with a coupon of 4.5 per cent will be issued under second tranche Series 10 and will be consolidated with the outstanding US$300 million notes issued on April 12, the company said. This takes the new outstanding to US$450 million.

The notes due in 2021 are priced at 101.651 per cent of their principal amount plus accrued interest from, and including April 12 to, but excluding their issue date. The expected issue date is Sept 14. At 101.651 per cent, the yield for the notes is 4.1 per cent.

Orders for the sale was about US$300 million. Demand came from private banks (51 per cent), fund managers (36 per cent) and banks and others (13 per cent.)

Joint bookrunners for the deal were BNP Paribas, Credit Suisse, DBS Bank, HSBC and JP Morgan.

Sean Henderson, HSBC' s deputy head of debt capital markets for Asia-Pacific, said Olam has once again reinforced its position as a sophisticated borrower in the debt capital markets.

Mr Henderson said the sale was " an opportunistic US dollar transaction following the recent strong market rally" .

" The transaction also demonstrated another step in broadening their institutional investor base, with a strong pricing outcome and good secondary performance despite the significant supply in the markets."

Olam said proceeds from the issue of the new notes will go towards general corporate purposes including repayment of existing debt.

It will be making an application to the Singapore Exchange Securities Trading Limited for permission to deal in and quotation of the notes.

The stock closed unchanged at S$2.08 on Thursday.

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Olam has been buying back the shares which is the main reason for the price rise. Ever since the price hit $2.1, the buyback is not that consistent. I noticed that once the price dropped .... Olam will come in to buyback to bring the price to around the range of 2.08~2.1+.

I also notice that there are conversion of warrant. Maybe .... Olam is maintaining this price to encourage conversion of warrant.

As the price is supported mainly by the buyback, i don' t think there is any accumulation of third party ...

FATABA ( Date: 08-Sep-2016 12:57) Posted:

Acummulation of OLAM is going on ? Since hitting 2.12, it has gone just below 2.10 and STAY there.....lot of sell Q....but never able to push it down much.
Also Olam is offering a 150M note or something ( cant recall. Just it somewhere)

Olam seem to be preparing for some big push ?

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It didn' t drop .... it went up instead.

Closing yesterday: 0.129

Today: 0.058 + 0.075 (Special Div) = 0.133 (Today is XD)

fritopower ( Date: 01-Sep-2016 09:58) Posted:

wow, what' s with the sudden sharp decrease?