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Latest Posts By earlybird14
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| 05-Mar-2017 08:32 |
User Research/Opinions
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Earlybird s talk - Sgx stock
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welcome.
Just went through history, where is support and resistance level. Month, week, day and 4hr low(support), mid(support/resistance), upper(resistance) bollinger band in fact are 20 days average moving line. So only breaking resistance strongly, then Accummulation at lower level, then you can expect higher. Just zone into Ocbc month chart, because week chart has sideline after long time range bound between 8.2-9, so month chart is the only available resistance for ocbc after a long term downtrend turn to long term uptrend. When month mid bollinger come down from top approach this range bound, it will attack it. Resistance are month mid bollinger band(8.9) upper(9.85). Just take note all these average line are moving time to time, because it is downtrend, so it is moving down, now upper is 9.61. So let's what happen, price broke 8.9, till 9.37 on 8 dec (day chart RSI is overbought), 1hr-4hr trend line sideline, price move into correction. Where? 8.9. Day chart low bollinger band and month chart mid bollinger(resistance turn support after breaking). Then 4hr move sideline line and move up till 9.78, close to 9.85, month upper(resistance), day RSI is overbought. Profit taking till 9.42. Then range bound 9.65-9.42. Accummulation or stronger distribution? We will know this week based on below observation. TA is not 100% but just for reference. But sometimes, you know how accurate there are based on history.
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| 05-Mar-2017 00:41 |
User Research/Opinions
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Earlybird s talk - Sgx stock
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Add on.
A news which is known by public is not a new, is a history. Bbs may price in. So this explain why a lot of pump dump case after a news which is known for days or weeks, and a confirmed news out end up pump and dump. Like Midas holding, don't know you know this company. 26 is month resistance( again strong one), rally from 21 to 26, then stop here for week, price down till 24.5- 25, management issue profit guidance before result release with 70% gain, price back to 26, then come down 25, result release, price back to 26, then gonna dump till Friday price 23.5-24. So news we retailers think it is news but insiders bbs all have first hand info, so already bought at 21. Their final target is to distribute all at 26 and create some short selling at 26, pump dump then find another level to buy back again at lower price, what price is it? A price can maximiZe their shortselling position profit at the same time sufficient for them to create another long position. This is stock market.
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| 05-Mar-2017 00:32 |
User Research/Opinions
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Earlybird s talk - Sgx stock
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Day Traders don't worry these since they involve short term trading. Why range bound, because they have reduced risk exposure by covering at 9.4 for the shortselling position at 9.6-9.7 and hold some expect more. So in fact, you see a quick bounce up and down between 9.65 and 9.42. So they safe guard them self at upper and lower limit with profit. After few round like that, you will start to see a firm movement starting from around 9.55 and slowly move down or move up. Then this movement once touch 9.65 or 9.42, without strong resistance, then it will cause break out.
Why choose 9.78, because it is critical resistance. Traders will just do it and choose this level to take profit for their bull run even though in a bull market or strong trend. After taking, see how market response and sell and buy activity to decide next move. So resistance level is for profit taking and shortselling position creation, then range bound for building some cash for supporting next trend by safeguard top and bottom (9.4-9.65) 1-3 times, then observe the mid range movement after few times range bounce and decide to continue the shortselling or cut the shortselling and turn it to long buy to push cross the 9.78. So now price is 9.5. Mid range 9.55. 2 times at 9.65, 2 times at 9.42. Very soon we will know if it is up or down.
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| 04-Mar-2017 23:44 |
User Research/Opinions
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Earlybird s talk - Sgx stock
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Frankly speaking. This is a level to create short sell position at around 9.6-9.7 and cut loss at 9.8 and expect to end this short at around 9.2-9.3.
I won't ask you to run now since it is still at range bound between 9.4-9.6+. As mentioned just now, when range bounce will be end? When 2-3 days price still below mid level 9.4-9.6+, 9.55, especially a green market, you will see profit taking from long and shortselling to bring price down. Also possible if price go up and break 9.8, then you will be in profit since those shortselling will cut loss and chase the price up. But for time being, if I shorted at 9.6-9.7 level, I will hold on my short so long as I don't see price higher than 9.55. If more than 9.55, I may reduce short holding and cut all at 9.7.
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| 04-Mar-2017 23:27 |
User Research/Opinions
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Earlybird s talk - Sgx stock
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Just check glp dividend last year. 6 cents, 2.2-2.4%.😁 😁 😁 no enough for cpf payment. Better sell lah.
Don't know how much money they spend to build glp that time.
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| 04-Mar-2017 23:21 |
User Research/Opinions
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Earlybird s talk - Sgx stock
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Gic spent billion to buy a building in New York Manhattan. I think the rental income shall be more than 4% annual, more than what glp can produce.
Here try to sell 3.6-4bil usd glp which own so many warehouses but there they spend bil for an office building. So what is the actual value of glp? Only gic funds team can know what they are doing.
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| 04-Mar-2017 23:17 |
Indofood Agri
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Indofood Agri Resources
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Lonely is always a good sign. You will only see a thread at hot spot when price are pumping or free falling.
Quiet is storing energy of spring for the jump.
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| 04-Mar-2017 23:13 |
User Research/Opinions
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Earlybird s talk - Sgx stock
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Gic sold huge stack at around 2.6 in 2013 to public.
So we can know this is the bottom level gic will sell. Although market say how good glp are, but I don't see their earning improve a lot, earning I refer more toward the gross profit rather than their 1 time gain profit from property purchase. Since for gic how much assets gain is meaningless, as a sovereign fund, dividend income annually still the main focus( have to pay back to cpf) So I think gic is eager to sell. Last week, gic gonna dump, then, I know about time to conclude the deal. So you just observe next few days what price will go, till price go stagnant, then you just plus another 6-10% on it, this will be the final offer price. Insiders all know what price they are dealing with, so they will allow some buffer on below in case the deal cannot go through. If the deal fails, ho Ho better sell fast fast.
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| 04-Mar-2017 23:01 |
User Research/Opinions
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Earlybird s talk - Sgx stock
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😂 😂 😂 then just abandon the thread Loh.
I don't lose anything. My purpose is sharing. Instead who think my posts are worth for reference, they can just go to see my post history by clicking my account.
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| 04-Mar-2017 22:53 |
User Research/Opinions
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Earlybird s talk - Sgx stock
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Again typical case in sgx in last 2 year?
Noble again😁 😁 😁 now you know why I was confident noble would issue right that time and slap all those jokers who argue with me year big big that time after proper studying the situation. TA FA at the end still experience to know how in market.
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| 04-Mar-2017 22:50 |
User Research/Opinions
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Earlybird s talk - Sgx stock
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😁 😁 😁 you will be surprised how many of company management fail in value their own company. At the end, all their money are wasted on share buy back and weaken their cash position for them to navigate the bad period.
I see enough how bbs or funds bring down a fundamental weak company through luring company to launch massive share buy back till the company cash at low, then market move into bear market( we know market is cyclic, in 1-2 years you sure encounter a bear run), then bbs and fund shortselling the shares to further later, because of company low in cash in bear market and force to issue new shares to public. Bbs and funds cover short from there. I always stress shortselling are worked on the basis of got buyers buy from you at higher level, then they bring it down and force you to sell at lower level. It is a game to fight who has more money to play with the game. Why apples share price never fall in past decade? Because jobs Steve didn't give dividend. So who dare to touch a company fundamentally strong with a lot cash?
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| 04-Mar-2017 22:36 |
User Research/Opinions
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Earlybird s talk - Sgx stock
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TEchnical analysis shall work on the basis of fundamental analysis. Since I really have no ideal Ocbc fundamental so I can't provide a full picture of better valuation of Ocbc.
I can just give you what chart tell me and provide you current TA.
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| 04-Mar-2017 22:33 |
User Research/Opinions
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Earlybird s talk - Sgx stock
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Noble was another case failed in share buy back when defending IB attack. Should be more than hundred million? Pump into market, couldn't help share price falling. Sarcastic was they beg for 750mio from shareholders at 11, 1 year later.
So you can see how market can swallow the cash easily. Instead of interfere market with share buy back. Company management should do their job to manage company well and accept the flip flop nature of the market for bull and bear run. If company do well, price down in bear run, let it be, market will return your value in next bull run. Since the money spend in share buy back will never be more than bbs or market hot money flowing especially bbs or traders are trade with margin cfd which easily can absorb the buy back amount.
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| 04-Mar-2017 22:25 |
User Research/Opinions
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Earlybird s talk - Sgx stock
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bluechips liquidity is huge. Share buy back involved from company herself won't have much impact on share price movement, may be retailers may gain confidence but definitely not bbs and Traders who know how to value the company and spot on overall market performance, price will go up, it will go up, once it come down no matter how much money company throw into market will be meaningless.
I don't know if you have joined the market 2 years ago. Global logistic properties launched huge share buy back at around 2.6-3 dollars at peak 2 years ago. Then market start to come down and GLP involved in U.S. Warehouse purchase and market worry or some might think the price was overvalued. Then we know what happen after share buy back, price sink all the way to 1.6 from peak. I don't know if I remember wrongly or not, they did buy back share during the falling but never able to stop the falling. So this is the message I try to deliver, share buy back should not be a confidence level to anyone to think this is a level will not be lower to. Market still swing to direction it should go.
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| 04-Mar-2017 21:57 |
User Research/Opinions
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Earlybird s talk - Sgx stock
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So a effective share buy back shall be at accummulation level (lower level after a peak) rather than distribution level( at peak) since buy ah buy, end up price move down, what you want market to think about this stock?
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| 04-Mar-2017 21:51 |
User Research/Opinions
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Earlybird s talk - Sgx stock
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3150 is a strong resistance level for sti. If you refer Dow index back to back you cN know this level has been sideline for quite a while when Dow up non stop.
i don't know what price Ocbc buy back the share, if buy back was on past 1-2 weeks. This is not a good sign since share price shall be supported by public confidence which include bbs and retailers instead of company herself. The more they spend to buy back but price doesn't go up, it will just give negative impression to market if they shall hold Ocbc at this price once Ocbc stop buying back.
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| 04-Mar-2017 21:40 |
User Research/Opinions
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End of Europe QE soon. Buy euro.
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Last night critical bounce up from day chart.
This level bounce up is 1.05 which is higher than the lowest 1.035. Further more if you refer back to 2015 March and dec low, it is 1.05. So market take 1.05 as lowest level. Brexit won't affect Europe economy much since UK never use euro, just more nonsense to be settled. In fact frexit decide the meaning of Europe Union existence since France and Germany formed the EU. Once frexit, euro will highly likely disappear. So now is bottom level, buy first. Then continue to monitor French presidential election. If the lady lose? Chance of pump up. Know the risk and safeguard at bottom level. If 1.05 break? Run road. No breaking? Continue to hold. The timing is quite similar to usd appreciation. Economy turn good, inflation slowly up, the start will be QE package or daily bond buy back amount reduce. Just watch up news will do. We buy at bottom level
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| 04-Mar-2017 20:51 |
User Research/Opinions
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End of Europe QE soon. Buy euro.
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http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/774408/Marine-Le-Pen-promises-Frexit-European-Union-France-presidential-election
Potential risk. France election and frexit poll of Marine Le Pen is elected as president. |
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| 04-Mar-2017 20:35 |
User Research/Opinions
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Earlybird s talk - Sgx stock
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Ocbc, Dbs, Uob and STI all are forming same chart pattern hitting Same resistance level. So breaking the level is decisive in Sgx bullish will be continue.
Among 4 of them Ocbc chart is weakest. Poorer result? I don't know since I didn't put too much attention on bank stock.
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| 04-Mar-2017 20:30 |
User Research/Opinions
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Earlybird s talk - Sgx stock
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Bird talk will try to recommend confidence trade which expect a good profit and try to maintain high scoring rate.
Ocbc hit resistance level at 9.78(month resistance at month chart upper bollinger band) now moving down slowly. However at the same time, due to moving down too slow, the support level from week chart are catching up Now at 9.2. Currently price are range bounce sideline mood between 9.4-9.7 with midbollinger line at 9.55. Now 9.5, if price stay 2-3 days below 9.5 to convince price won't bounce back to 9.55 above, price will go down to attack 9.2 shortly. Friday night us market is green. So if Sgx market green on Monday but Ocbc price doesn't go up above 9.55, market will be convinced time to take profit and move down.
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