ShareJunction - Member Posts

x 0

Carlyle group bought their 11% of share @1.85 in 2010. They supported the right issue and maintain their 11% @ 34 cents. Their average price of 11% share is 1.09.

96 million of share in this warrant exercise price @ 52 cents will increase their holding to above 15% with average price of 91cents.

Who bought 44 or below 44, mean you are holding below Carlyle Group average price.

x 0

I believe this is resolve since the revenue and profit doesn't affect much in last quarter which record June to sept 2013 result.

The acquisition of 4 pacific Andes linked company which is under FAS start in Jan and end in June 2013.

FAS can only cry and force sell their company to RSC. Pacific Andes has to buy pollock from RSC. Since pacific Andes could settle FAS in the past, they will settle RSC in the future.

earlybird14 ( Date: 11-Jan-2014 15:52) Posted:

It is not muted. It is resolved quietly.

http://www.undercurrentnews.com/2013/07/26/russian-sea-catching-eyes-last-of-pacific-andes-linked-companies/

Instead of corruption money go to FAS, now it change to RSC.

RSC ? owned by oil billionaire Gennady Timchenko and Maxim Vorobiev, both also shareholders in Russian Sea Group ? was founded in 2011 and made its first deals earlier this year, snapping up Far Eastern pollock companies Turnif and Intraros for $350 million, announced Jan. 21.

This always happen in Russia. Billionaire spot the benefit of the industry, use their power in politic to control the industry.

Unfortunately pacific Andes is the scapegoat in the condemn. However, RSC is still rely on pacific Andes to sell their pollock to pollock biggest market, China.

newbie888 ( Date: 11-Jan-2014 15:39) Posted:

but why the news in it Russia Pollock business seems to be muted?

x 0

It is not muted. It is resolved quietly.

http://www.undercurrentnews.com/2013/07/26/russian-sea-catching-eyes-last-of-pacific-andes-linked-companies/

Instead of corruption money go to FAS, now it change to RSC.

RSC ? owned by oil billionaire Gennady Timchenko and Maxim Vorobiev, both also shareholders in Russian Sea Group ? was founded in 2011 and made its first deals earlier this year, snapping up Far Eastern pollock companies Turnif and Intraros for $350 million, announced Jan. 21.

This always happen in Russia. Billionaire spot the benefit of the industry, use their power in politic to control the industry.

Unfortunately pacific Andes is the scapegoat in the condemn. However, RSC is still rely on pacific Andes to sell their pollock to pollock biggest market, China.

newbie888 ( Date: 11-Jan-2014 15:39) Posted:

but why the news in it Russia Pollock business seems to be muted?

x 0

http://www.altassets.net/private-equity-news/by-news-type/deal-news/carlyle-backed-china-fishery-acquires-peruvian-fishing-group.html

Earlier this month Carlyle raised $308m to invest in Peru.

Carlyle has net income of 25 billion in 2013 which show how good they are in investment. This article pointed that Carlyle group entered 308million dollar in Peru market in 2013. Same as china fish, they believed the fishing quota lowered in 2012 to 2013 was a chance for investment.

Since they are confidence with Peru fishery, they are also confidence with china fish which own the largest Fish oil and fish meal market in Peru after acquired copeinca.

x 0

http://www.carlyle.com/news-room/news-release-archive/china-fishery-welcomes-strategic-investment-carlyle-group

Carlyle group still own the right to exercise the warrant above 2.15. But unlikely, they will exercise it.

Very likely, Caryle group will exercise their warrant @ 52 cents.

x 0

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Carlyle_Group

Carlyle group. Very impressive asset investment management company.

Blanchard ( Date: 11-Jan-2014 14:57) Posted:

I think Carlyle Group's strategic investment in China Fish is long-term and will support China Fish in growing her business. As a core pillar of its strategy, China Fish will continue to seek new fishing grounds with sustainable biomass such as in Africa region etc. I suppose price would eventually go above 0.52.

x 0

If they want to sell, they will push it higher than 52. If they want to keep, they will not push but keep for dividend.

China fish always give 30 to 40% of profit as dividend. This year reduce half to 19% profit and issue 1 cents equal to 2.3% dividend.

After acquisition and good operation in Peru. I expect a 10 to 15% growth as compared with 2011 result which is about 130US million profit. 20% profit paid to dividend will be 1.6cents. 35% profit paid to dividend will be 2.9 cents. As today closing price, it will be 3.6% and 6.6% dividend.

All these counting in 1 to 1.28 USD exchange rate. USD appreciation which is confirmed in next 2 years will bring the dividend even higher in 2014.

The estimation above is very conservative and believe CAPIII done similar and decide to enter the unlisted warrant with china fish.

tea444u ( Date: 10-Jan-2014 22:12) Posted:

if this is the case, then can put my money here as they would have to try to push to 52 some time during the year? interesting...

earlybird14 ( Date: 03-Jan-2014 07:27) Posted:

Don't forget the 1 to 1 warrant issue to Cap III. In order to have 1 to 1 warrant issue, china fish price has to push above 52 cents. This is just the matter of time in any time in 2014, china fish will hit 52 cents to achieve warrant exercise condition. To maximize the value of the investment, CAP III may push it above 52 cents to sell the warrant share.

Early bird like salted dead fish. Nice food can store long time.

x 0

The only negative effect to China Fish so far is very very very bad market sentiment in SGX market.

I miss out the 9 Jan AGM agenda. One good thing to point is the share buy back plan.

x 0

Apologise to mess out the year. it should be 2013. The reduction of anchovy quota happen from oct 2012 to oct 2013, 2 fishing season.

In 2010 & 2011, China fish was enjoying their huge profit from Russia Pollock and their Peru anchovy deployment and acquisition of small company in Peru was on going.

Share price sometimes doesn't reflect the actual value of a company, especially Copeinca listed in Oslo. Reason for share price of Copeinca pump up high in 2013 was due to china fish acquisition.

Based on the this season and coming season fishing quota, Copeinca management may not even consider to sell the company to china fish. For Copeinca management to make a decision to sell away the company was mainly due to the uncertainty environment from Oct 2012 to June 2013.

Just bear in mind that Peru not only increase the fishing quota of anchovy but all the fishing sector quota. This imply the increase in volume of fish in the sea. At least, we can see at meast 2 beautiful quarter result.

EARLY BIRD IS SPECULATING.....

ZeeZee ( Date: 10-Jan-2014 17:19) Posted:

Hi earlybird, actually i thought China Fish made a slightly wrong move to acquire Copeinca this late. Correct me if I'm wrong, they were only able to complete acquisition in 2013, not in 2012. Futhermore, Copeinca was much cheaper in 2010 to 2011, in which the question comes: why didn't China Fishery acquire it then?

Also, with foresight that tapering will come and an impending rising interest rate environment would arrive, it isn't so wise to have 1200+million of debt. So why acquire Copeinca now?

However, all that said, I feel that the sentiments of this acquisition is too pessimistic and that CF is grossly undervalued.

Vested.

x 0

The acquisition was done in 2012 when the quota of Anchovy was reduced more than 70%. Copeinca fishery operation was fully in Peru and affected the most. Nobody would know how much the quota would be increased gradually after 2012 at that time.

With this uncertainty, China Fish brave move to acquire Copeinca was questioned at that time.

However, history prove that China Fish brave move is a right management decision and Quota of Anchovy increase 400% compared to the same period of reduction which imply the quota is back to 2011 level.

Earlybird read an article and understood that Copeinca fishing fleet and plants in Peru is newer and better than China Fish and their quota of anchovy fishing is also higher than China Fish. Acquisiton of Copeinca shall be deemed that a 100% winning game as per today situation.

tea444u ( Date: 10-Jan-2014 16:23) Posted:

I thought they acquired alredy?

earlybird14 ( Date: 10-Jan-2014 16:18) Posted:

Yes. CAPIII is 2nd major shareholder and have been with china fish very long time.

Insider buying is always a positive news. If price can hit 52, Earlybird believe px will go even higher.

Peru fishery was in winter last year. This year obviously is a spring with good harvest season, especially acquisition of copeinca. This acquisition is almost impossible in this year. Although debt increase, Earlybird believe pacific Andes group steal a cheap gold mine.

x 0

Yes. CAPIII is 2nd major shareholder and have been with china fish very long time.

Insider buying is always a positive news. If price can hit 52, Earlybird believe px will go even higher.

Peru fishery was in winter last year. This year obviously is a spring with good harvest season, especially acquisition of copeinca. This acquisition is almost impossible in this year. Although debt increase, Earlybird believe pacific Andes group steal a cheap gold mine.

tea444u ( Date: 10-Jan-2014 15:09) Posted:

so this is not a gambling warrant in oher words? plus no problem if px dont move to 52? but they will make if price moves to 52/ so got incentive to try and move price to 52?

sorry boss for all these qns... thanks man ..

earlybird14 ( Date: 10-Jan-2014 07:02) Posted:

There are different type of warrant.

The warrant for CAPIII is a one side win warrant. CAPIII pay nothing to secure the warrant. They can choose to exercise their warrant anytime in 3 years so long as price is higher than 52cents.

If price is higher than 52, they exercise and earn. If price is lower, warrant will never exercise, nothing to pay and lose.

There are plenty of other type of leverage warrant offered by broker and listed in sgx providing for gambling purpose, always has 6 month to 2 year expiry duration. But have to pay to secure the warrant. Price higher than exercise price earn ton of money, price lower, burn off all what you pay for the warran

x 0

Agreed. Very strong. Load back half. Enjoy profit from the other half this weekend.

srichipan ( Date: 10-Jan-2014 15:41) Posted:

Put on seat belt. Anytime could chiong.

x 0

There are different type of warrant.

The warrant for CAPIII is a one side win warrant. CAPIII pay nothing to secure the warrant. They can choose to exercise their warrant anytime in 3 years so long as price is higher than 52cents.

If price is higher than 52, they exercise and earn. If price is lower, warrant will never exercise, nothing to pay and lose.

There are plenty of other type of leverage warrant offered by broker and listed in sgx providing for gambling purpose, always has 6 month to 2 year expiry duration. But have to pay to secure the warrant. Price higher than exercise price earn ton of money, price lower, burn off all what you pay for the warrant

tea444u ( Date: 10-Jan-2014 00:50) Posted:

this means only when warrant price is 52 then they can exercise it or what? i dont understand warrants...can explain further... i just vested in china fish...this one in the past alway gib me money one... hope to see 50 cents soon.......

earlybird14 ( Date: 09-Jan-2014 17:47) Posted:

Warrant is issued as an incentives but share dilution.

In US market, when the company issue new share to raise capital, they will include the 1 to 1 warrant at higher price as a a incentives. Which mean you buy 1 new share, you got 1 warrant can be exercise at higher price The warrant can only be exercise once it reach the set price. So warrant is incentives

The warrant agreed with CAPIII is a unlisted warrant and exercise price @ 52 which mean, it will not go through the open market and CAPIII has the right to exercise its warrant right to purchase all the unlisted new share @ 52cents.

When China fish announced warrant issue @ 52, China fish is at 38cents, so existing shareholder will not be aware that their share actually is diluted and their dividend is reduced too.

CAPIII is willing to enter to Warrant Clause which mean they are confidence with the future development of China Fish

x 0

Can come back anytime if I want. Secure profit first.

srichipan ( Date: 10-Jan-2014 06:44) Posted:

More upside to come. You sold too early

x 0

Early bird keep more worms @ 69. Good worms

x 0

Earlybird is not big bird. So can't tell.

Earlybird faith & trust is not only in this share.

Anna18 ( Date: 09-Jan-2014 17:43) Posted:

Lol! Congrats for making huge profits! You seem to have great faith & trust in this share. Do you think it'll go higher tomorrow?

earlybird14 ( Date: 09-Jan-2014 17:24) Posted:

Earlybird sold 300+lots worm @ 43.5 which were bought @ 38 to 38.5, enjoying $$$$ on hand first.

Hope all of you continue to grow the worms.

Earlybird may come back again if you don't want the worms and throw it at cheap.

x 0

Warrant is issued as an incentives but share dilution.

In US market, when the company issue new share to raise capital, they will include the 1 to 1 warrant at higher price as a a incentives. Which mean you buy 1 new share, you got 1 warrant can be exercise at higher price The warrant can only be exercise once it reach the set price. So warrant is incentives

The warrant agreed with CAPIII is a unlisted warrant and exercise price @ 52 which mean, it will not go through the open market and CAPIII has the right to exercise its warrant right to purchase all the unlisted new share @ 52cents.

When China fish announced warrant issue @ 52, China fish is at 38cents, so existing shareholder will not be aware that their share actually is diluted and their dividend is reduced too.

CAPIII is willing to enter to Warrant Clause which mean they are confidence with the future development of China Fish.

tea444u ( Date: 09-Jan-2014 13:17) Posted:

Hi ealry bird...wondering why it has to go and meet ex price of 52? That said its trading below its nav of 57 us cents...

earlybird14 ( Date: 09-Jan-2014 11:33) Posted:

May be. But it won't be aggressive as China Fish.

China Fish has hidden agenda to meet.

1) Reach warrant exercise price, 52

2) To maximise the asset value on Pacific andes resource development Ltd and Pacific andes holding after acquisition of Copeinca.

The coming quarter revenue and profit supported by strong growth in Peru Fishing, especially after Copeinca acquisition

x 0

Earlybird sold 300+lots worm @ 43.5 which were bought @ 38 to 38.5, enjoying $$$$ on hand first.

Hope all of you continue to grow the worms.

Earlybird may come back again if you don't want the worms and throw it at cheap.

Anna18 ( Date: 09-Jan-2014 13:40) Posted:

Arghhh bought at 415 feel like selling at 435....

x 0

May be. But it won't be aggressive as China Fish.

China Fish has hidden agenda to meet.

1) Reach warrant exercise price, 52

2) To maximise the asset value on Pacific andes resource development Ltd and Pacific andes holding after acquisition of Copeinca.

The coming quarter revenue and profit supported by strong growth in Peru Fishing, especially after Copeinca acquisition.

Maller ( Date: 09-Jan-2014 11:28) Posted:

PAC Andes got chance? I think Haven't up yet

x 0

43-43.5 clear. Here we come, TP 52