ShareJunction - Member Posts

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Today China all ship building stock continue friday strength all continue to grow, seems like Singapore listed china ship building company stock price performance is much lesser then the China listed. Yangzijiang only rise by 2.2% while cosco only 1.5%

代码	名称	最新价	涨跌额	涨跌幅	买入	卖出	昨收	今开	最高	最低	成交量 /手	成交额 /万
sz300123	太阳鸟	14.76	0.66	4.68%	14.75	14.76	14.1	14.2	14.88	13.88	48,269	7,010.25
sz300008	上海佳豪	7.15	0.44	6.56%	7.14	7.15	6.71	6.65	7.31	6.58	89,230	6,253.57
sz002608	舜天船舶	19.75	1.8	10.03%	19.75	0	17.95	17.95	19.75	17.66	102,386	19,899.61
sh601989	中国重工	4.99	0.27	5.72%	4.98	4.99	4.72	4.74	5	4.67	1,305,174	63,885.57
sh601890	亚星锚链	8.28	0.53	6.84%	8.28	8.29	7.75	7.68	8.4	7.5	250,949	20,362.13
sh600685	广船国际	13.09	0.77	6.25%	13.07	13.1	12.32	12.23	13.3	12.15	182,923	23,423.13
sh600150	中国船舶	24.68	1.36	5.83%	24.68	24.69	23.32	22.86	25	22.58	358,728	86,284.97
sh600072	中船股份	15.28	0.99	6.93%	15.29	15.3	14.29	14.29	15.51	14.01	226,585	33,932.95

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The drastic raise is due to the stock have been suppress for too long, and with realisation of sound management and financial fundamental and also external factor change more people are trying to get, but those holding it are unwilling to release since it is fundamental ok company. Thus price raise faster then expected.

Hulumas ( Date: 14-Jan-2013 17:56) Posted:

It deserves to have appreciation of share price, faster and faster, for its sound management and financial fundamental. What is wrong with it?

alooloo ( Date: 14-Jan-2013 16:12) Posted:

this one go up so drastic... from 1.03 to 1.15 in 2-3 days only...

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Sorry, if you are lack of emotion control, this is extremely risky for investor.

But please elaborate, why knowing the direction will sure " mau" . If this tendency is not 100% that you think, then why did you think people will sure " mau" .

I believe sk888 have raised the issue, and also Peter Pan mention is current direction not the future direction.

iPunter ( Date: 14-Jan-2013 07:46) Posted:

YOU have made an accusation. Do not avoid answering by pushing it to others, etc.

Get straight to the point: Which of the posts are misleading?

This is a question for you. You to justify your accusation.

I am waiting for your answer.

cheongsl ( Date: 14-Jan-2013 07:22) Posted:

Your post say a thousand words, no point listing out as forumer can access to all your posting, are you employing me to help you to identify your mistake in your posting, please show me your pay check before asking someone to help. As there is no free lunch in this world.

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Your post say a thousand words, no point listing out as forumer can access to all your posting, are you employing me to help you to identify your mistake in your posting, please show me your pay check before asking someone to help. As there is no free lunch in this world.

iPunter ( Date: 13-Jan-2013 22:53) Posted:

All the previous posts? You are getting more daring in your accusations..

Which are the misleading posts? Can you list the misleading posts?

cheongsl ( Date: 13-Jan-2013 21:30) Posted:

There is no point arguring, as all your previous tread show that

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What is your basis?

Flyordie ( Date: 13-Jan-2013 17:35) Posted:

ShOrt the REIT !

tanglinboy ( Date: 13-Jan-2013 17:21) Posted:

Markets down tomorrow due to property cooling measures?

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There is no point arguring, as all your previous tread show that.

iPunter ( Date: 13-Jan-2013 09:54) Posted:

@cheongsl " ... Trend or dircetion is a tendency of reaching a certain point.

Why try to mislead people into defining tendency as 100% will? It is just the likelyhood. Can be 50%, 65%, etc..."

This is a serious allegation. Who is misleading? Didn't I always say that it is 50/50, it is betting, etc?

If you do not understand what I mean, you can always ask to clarify before accusing as misleading.

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But not every reits facing the same issue, what I believe the retailer rental Reits will be seriously affected when the trend comes more clear.

cheongsl ( Date: 13-Jan-2013 09:03) Posted:

True, cooling measure will not take effect. If there is a demand, the rich would not think much with this few % of stamp duty, the property company will still continue to prosperous, government is just trying to gain more from the property booming. As for Reits, I think current rental rate is too high, the shop items are actually selling too high also, that is why even through the internet seller are selling at 1.5~3 times the price of China, the goods still able to sell (taking into risk of bad quality and damage and also postage fees etc.), as shop are selling even higher, which I compare which is usually 3~10times. Sometime I only sit outside the shop to observe, the business don't seems to be good. and also do some calculation. The shop get its money from shoppers, the shoppers from work, the salary did not see any drastic increase, but the goods price is increasing, even though Singapore dollar appreciate to other currency, but the price is actually inflated by the rental charge. I have also check other website like internet delivery etc. As the shipping price are declining, actually you can get 1kg goods at 18RMB, just take a look of taobao the delivery, there are long list, that is why you can get the 7" tablet at Q0010 at around S$80++, tablet in Taobao cheap one you can get around 200~300RMB, one parcel of 1kg you can have around 4 so total price + freight is only (consider 1 as 250rmb), so 250*4+18 = 1018rmb, convert to S$ is around S$200, any internet purchase parcel send to Singapore below S$400 (CIF) is free of duty, thus the actual price for the tablet is around S$50, but selling at S$80, thus is a 60% gain, but also observe the Q0010 the sales payment % also increase (is equivalent to rental rate increase, thus in future individual might make the hassle to prearrange the shipment etc), simlim etc are selling at S$160+ thus the gain is even more, but I believe most of it when to the rental. If no more correction of the singapore good pricing. This will off cause result in frieght rate increase, thus this turn me to check the BDI, and it proved that the BDI show a reversal, and checking on shipping industries, etc. Finally come to the ship building industries. This show interesting result, thus I have been vest in Yangzijiang since November last year, and shall continue to hold until things changes. I think rental price if further increase will really pull down Reits, as shop will start to close down, as business will fade off due to too high pricing, current payout of 90% can only have a yield of 6~7% that is too little. That is why I am totally out of Reits last year september, which have been favour for me for the past few years. The rental can continue to climb for the past years is due to strong Singapore dollar, sharp decline in shipping cost from 2008 till date from 11,680 to current 760. So actually the retail shop earning from this is go into the Reits, and you still see the price of goods increase. Shopping trend take time to change, and I see changes in place.

iPunter ( Date: 12-Jan-2013 21:41) Posted:

Cooling or no cooling, more probably, rich foreigners with money will soon be snapping up all the properties

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True, cooling measure will not take effect. If there is a demand, the rich would not think much with this few % of stamp duty, the property company will still continue to prosperous, government is just trying to gain more from the property booming. As for Reits, I think current rental rate is too high, the shop items are actually selling too high also, that is why even through the internet seller are selling at 1.5~3 times the price of China, the goods still able to sell (taking into risk of bad quality and damage and also postage fees etc.), as shop are selling even higher, which I compare which is usually 3~10times. Sometime I only sit outside the shop to observe, the business don't seems to be good. and also do some calculation. The shop get its money from shoppers, the shoppers from work, the salary did not see any drastic increase, but the goods price is increasing, even though Singapore dollar appreciate to other currency, but the price is actually inflated by the rental charge. I have also check other website like internet delivery etc. As the shipping price are declining, actually you can get 1kg goods at 18RMB, just take a look of taobao the delivery, there are long list, that is why you can get the 7" tablet at Q0010 at around S$80++, tablet in Taobao cheap one you can get around 200~300RMB, one parcel of 1kg you can have around 4 so total price + freight is only (consider 1 as 250rmb), so 250*4+18 = 1018rmb, convert to S$ is around S$200, any internet purchase parcel send to Singapore below S$400 (CIF) is free of duty, thus the actual price for the tablet is around S$50, but selling at S$80, thus is a 60% gain, but also observe the Q0010 the sales payment % also increase (is equivalent to rental rate increase, thus in future individual might make the hassle to prearrange the shipment etc), simlim etc are selling at S$160+ thus the gain is even more, but I believe most of it when to the rental. If no more correction of the singapore good pricing. This will off cause result in frieght rate increase, thus this turn me to check the BDI, and it proved that the BDI show a reversal, and checking on shipping industries, etc. Finally come to the ship building industries. This show interesting result, thus I have been vest in Yangzijiang since November last year, and shall continue to hold until things changes. I think rental price if further increase will really pull down Reits, as shop will start to close down, as business will fade off due to too high pricing, current payout of 90% can only have a yield of 6~7% that is too little. That is why I am totally out of Reits last year september, which have been favour for me for the past few years. The rental can continue to climb for the past years is due to strong Singapore dollar, sharp decline in shipping cost from 2008 till date from 11,680 to current 760. So actually the retail shop earning from this is go into the Reits, and you still see the price of goods increase. Shopping trend take time to change, and I see changes in place.

iPunter ( Date: 12-Jan-2013 21:41) Posted:

Cooling or no cooling, more probably, rich foreigners with money will soon be snapping up all the properties.

gavinl ( Date: 12-Jan-2013 21:11) Posted:

Good question!

I thought the opposite will happen since property to expensive to buy,people might turn to rental.

No experinece in reits and property,so will appreaciate some guilding.

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Trend or dircetion is a tendency of reaching a certain point. Why try to mislead people into defining tendency as 100% will? It is just the likelyhood. Can be 50%, 65%, etc.

iPunter ( Date: 12-Jan-2013 17:25) Posted:

This is very dangerous for stock newbies, because they always want to believe in something,

Anything that sounds authentic to them, they will believe. And when they believe, they will " mau " .

Now regarding direction and trend, no one can tell the direction or the trend.

The trend or direction which is revealed by the market is only till the present moment.

From this present moment on, the direction or trend can change or reverse.

In other words, no one knows when it will reverse. It may reverse, it may not.

To say that it is going in any particular direction is being contentious,

and that is bad. Hope stock newbies get the point so far. But I bet not... lol... Smiley

Peter_Pan ( Date: 12-Jan-2013 11:37) Posted:

Must also know current market direction

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That depend on how you plot your graph.

sgfreestyler ( Date: 12-Jan-2013 14:17) Posted:

what is the next resistence?

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Thanks for suggestion, but what is the basis for the switch?

For this counter, I will maintain my long term interest as mention earlier in the tread based on the following reason:

1) The performance have increase over the years even during the bad years since 2008 the BDI have drop drastically.

2) The ship tearing down business have been redhot for many years since 2008, where shipper are tearing down the ship to get back the cost to repay the loan then put the ship asside with no use.

3) The BDI value show a reversal. PMI value and export value for China have increase.

4) It went into property market which is also starting to pick up in China.

5) Recently, the sea conference, the sea authority of China have annouce the forcusing on the Sea trade and sea economy. (This to my believe they are taking their first step trying to build up their Navy capabilities due to South China island and " Diao Yu Dao" issue. So that more ship builder can join-in and improve in shipbuilding technology)

Technically, this stock breakout from the long terms downward trends which is form sence 2008.

As mention previously in the wilmar tread, I mention technically the trend seems to reverse, but it is not support by fundamental, thus will not vest. Just take a look at the palm oil price, it have been increasing since 2008, but reversal occurs and the downward trend still in tact. There is no indication of changes in direction.

Lets take a look at goldern agriculture, how does it perform in the short term chart when all shares are going up. It fail to stand above the first line of support. It currently fail to stand even at the second line of support. What worst is when price drop a lot the volume of the sell down increase. Thus the upward movement is not support by the volume at all.

Indo Agri graph is slightly better but it also fail it first support, and there is no volume increase to support the upward movement.

New123 ( Date: 12-Jan-2013 14:32) Posted:

can consider to lump ship and go to commodity counters such as golden agri ,indo agri etc .

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Not every property counter can be short, chooice wisely, those with more development in Singapore will be more affected. But keep in mind that actually many property company also have lots of earning and accumulate $$$, and actually many are trading below NAV, if it drop too much, they might target privatise. Analyse the risk and consequences before doing any decision.

bishan22 ( Date: 11-Jan-2013 22:33) Posted:

This coming Monday, please change to shorts when visiting property counters. Haha. Smiley

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See whether auntie Iso can withstand until the bear come loh, then auntie Iso will be the " 股神 " 。

halleluyah ( Date: 12-Jan-2013 07:11) Posted:

But auntie Iso will pengsan.

iPunter ( Date: 12-Jan-2013 05:38) Posted:

The Dow was " guai-guai (anak baik) " , closed steady... no " pengsan" ...

At least there will be not much incentive for selling on Monday... Smiley

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STI have been in stagnent for sometime, trying to get support before it can further incline to higher height?

Is it that Singapore share already stagnent there? No, the money flow to china related share, and China was soooo powerful, with the sea conference held in 10 Jan 2013 in Beijing, annoucement by sea authority that they will boost the sea economy and sea trade, maritime index shoot up in one day. Chart is the best to say everything.

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If you compare to history of STI, which nearest period will it more resemble current situation? I found it to be 2006 == 2013, as the raised also start somewhere in November. The 2005 raised in somewhere end of October, the raised in 2012 is 19 November 2012. In 2005, the penny take turns to raise. In 2012, the penny take turns to raise also.

Thus have extract the STI index for that period, will the history repeated itself?

xin9999 ( Date: 11-Jan-2013 22:00) Posted:

Thanks. You have the point, especially to those who bought earlier at lower price, they might hav letting go today. Not to forget,Chinese new year just around the corner. Let go n get cash!
Well, hopefully i can see something next week.

cheongsl ( Date: 11-Jan-2013 21:40) Posted:

1月 10日，全国海洋工作会议在北京召开，国家海洋局提出大力推动海洋经济发展，包括六方面内容：一是加强海洋经济规划指导；二是提升海洋经济监测能力；三是拓展海洋经济服务领域；四是保障重点领域用海用岛需求；五是促进科技兴海全面发展；六是深化海洋专题预报服务。
Yesterday, there was a sea conference held in Beijing, China Sea authority will push for the sea economic development. Thus many of the company that is related have move up quite alot, this include ship building, logistic and frieght company. As today STI show weakness in strength, thus many people that have benefit from recent raise have fear out. That is why you see the shape drop after it raise quite alot today. With the push for sea economic by the authority, it would be expected that Yang Zi Jiang should be able to perform pretty well for the next few years. It would be expect that STI remain weak for sometime before the raise again thus Yang should be able to attend higher high soon.

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1月 10日，全国海洋工作会议在北京召开，国家海洋局提出大力推动海洋经济发展，包括六方面内容：一是加强海洋经济规划指导；二是提升海洋经济监测能力；三是拓展海洋经济服务领域；四是保障重点领域用海用岛需求；五是促进科技兴海全面发展；六是深化海洋专题预报服务。
Yesterday, there was a sea conference held in Beijing, China Sea authority will push for the sea economic development. Thus many of the company that is related have move up quite alot, this include ship building, logistic and frieght company. As today STI show weakness in strength, thus many people that have benefit from recent raise have fear out. That is why you see the shape drop after it raise quite alot today. With the push for sea economic by the authority, it would be expected that Yang Zi Jiang should be able to perform pretty well for the next few years. It would be expect that STI remain weak for sometime before the raise again thus Yang should be able to attend higher high soon.

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My target for this is around 1.40, 1.80 and 2.20, currently the highrise trend has just begin with the sharp break up of the previous trendline. First target should be achivable based on current trend, subsequent target will need to observe after the first target is achieve.

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It is possible if the EPS continue to grow as last few years. With the PMI increase for few months. December PMI show slight decline, but the export for China for December increase compare to november. With the increase in the export, shipping industries will follow, but shipbuilding can't be done overnight, as mention previously, the ship tearing down during the period where export decline and shipping price drop will cause the shipping company unable to handle with the increase export demand and cause shipping price to rise, and ship building demand to increase. Thus when the BDI drop sharply in 2008 and Yang Zi Jiang can continue to grow from 2008 to 2012, which is ship building bad years. It should be able to do better when the goods year approached. I personally believe that 2012 or beginning of 2013 is the worst period for the ship building and the slow demand is coming in.

Another attraction for this stock is that it have when into the property market last year which is also picking up in China.

Yangzijiang	9M2012	31/12/11	31/12/10	31/12/09	31/12/08	31/12/07	31/12/06
Yangzijiang	CNY(m)	CNY(m)	CNY(m)	CNY(m)	CNY(m)	CNY(m)	CNY(m)
Total Revenue	11,235.79	15,705.83	13,558.18	10,623.64	7,359.10	3,855.49	2,324.98
Net Income Before Taxes	3,434.18	4,998.48	3,629.41	2,549.55	1,699.86	990.42	518.86
Net Income	2,747.68	3,976.60	2,955.34	2,289.95	1,579.76	869.51	454.34
Diluted Normalized EPS	0.72	1.17	0.8	0.63	0.45	0.28	0.14

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From 12+pm continue to see buy up, will it chong further?

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Divident for 2012, 2011, 2010, 2009 are 0.17,0.14,0.07,0.045 HKD, for current price of S$0.205, 0.17HKD will turn up to be a yield of 13.1%. This is a very high divident yield. Can this be substantable? To my believe it is a yes. The EPS for half quarter is 0.185HKD, but due to the ceasation of unprofit branch the payout reduce the EPS to 0.08HKD, as the earning for the second quarter is still profit even after deduct the ceasation we know that, earning per shares is improving for the last quarter, which is more then 0.105 HKD. If we maintain the same earning for 3rd and 4th quarter then the EPS should be around 0.4HKD, thus if they payout 50% of their earning as divident then it will be around 0.2HKD. But bear in mind that the China PMI is improving, they should be able to get more order since during the bad times they earning is continously improving. The share price did not move up much even with the divident and earning continously improve, thus this is a good investment in the long terms.

Attached from investing.businessweek.com.