ShareJunction - Member Posts

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Yes! Now there is a chance for $0.72 scrip or lower! With the price traded as recenlty as high as $0.81, if the scrip is offered at $0.72, I will subscribe all my eligible entitlement. Using today' s price and the amount of discount [9.7%] given to TS buyers, the scrip can be offered at arond $0.68! If the market think $0.68 is too low, they will push up the price, which could be the case as intraday it hit the low of $0.715. I would not be interested in any scrip if the discount is less than 7% from the reference price, usually VWAP 5 to 10 days priror to the announcement of scrip price.

HVRRVH ( Date: 30-Mar-2025 18:07) Posted:

Likely for short term it would stay at current level, so YZJF can offer similar scrip price at $0.72 but who knows. As a long long term investor, I can only get more confidence and optimistic of future growth of YZJF and if the price get push up then likely the scrip price would be priced higher too so best scenario for long term investor is the share price stay about the same till scrip price is announced.

ysh2006 ( Date: 30-Mar-2025 18:01) Posted:

So important question how will share price react up or down ?..

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We have put the qn to old Ren during the webinar. I was the one who asked about the one off 75m fx gains and govt grants. In gist, old Ren was confident that the 75m income can be replaced through existing/future businesses. Everything else being equal, i am more concerned with the U.S. economy containment policies and its potential negative impacts on YZJF?s earnings. However, the new variants now are the sale of TS and DRIP, which will enlarged sharebase substantially and reduce eps of profit doesn?t go up correspondingly at the least. Obviously old Ren and the 6+2 (or 6+4) are confident and bullish. Perhaps rightly so since they are insiders and supposedly know better than us retailers. I guess we don?t have a choice but to ride along if we believe them. Also, market may tell us a thing or 2 in the coming days. We shall see and act accordingly if situation warrants it.

volvo125 ( Date: 31-Mar-2025 15:07) Posted:

I agree, fully, that the placement of
treasury shares to big strategic investors with the peripheral support of insiders is a very strong bullish signal. The Merlion and Oprie Funds could possibly come from the same source but is intentionally splitted into 2 funds to stay way below the SSH level to avoid the frequent sgx reporting hassle for shares transactions. The total 194m shares placement > 5% of float.

It is definitely a good news no doubt. But I really do have deep concern on how YFH could keep up with returns expectation against a significant increase of share O/S by 347m to 3827m shares and not compromising negatively on the EPS and DPS, especially in the absence of the non recurring govt grants and exchange gain in FY25.

HVRRVH ( Date: 31-Mar-2025 13:17) Posted:

I have the same reservation at first. However, in the news bite and AR2024, old Ren mentioned of the creation of the new ' Cash Management Fund' with the objective of manage the assets more effectively. Among others, some of the funds will be redeploy to private credit and maritime related businesses. We do not know what old Ren has in mind with regard to the size of the fund to be deploy into maritime and private credit. It seems to be big, big enough that the relocation of the funds from cash managment doesn' t appear to be enough and hence, the sale of treasury shares and the proposed scrip dividend. Insiders inherently has advantage in term of more intimate knowledge of the company and if they willing to buy all the treasury shares, I am sure they know they can make money. As a value investor, I believe insiders buying is always good especially if it is back up by visible growth, which YZJF has so far demonstrated. It will be good though that the management can address all the valid points you have raised and perhaps they can restart voluntary quarterly business update so that we investors can gauge better the prospects of the company.

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I have the same reservation at first. However, in the news bite and AR2024, old Ren mentioned of the creation of the new ' Cash Management Fund' with the objective of manage the assets more effectively. Among others, some of the funds will be redeploy to private credit and maritime related businesses. We do not know what old Ren has in mind with regard to the size of the fund to be deploy into maritime and private credit. It seems to be big, big enough that the relocation of the funds from cash managment doesn' t appear to be enough and hence, the sale of treasury shares and the proposed scrip dividend. Insiders inherently has advantage in term of more intimate knowledge of the company and if they willing to buy all the treasury shares, I am sure they know they can make money. As a value investor, I believe insiders buying is always good especially if it is back up by visible growth, which YZJF has so far demonstrated. It will be good though that the management can address all the valid points you have raised and perhaps they can restart voluntary quarterly business update so that we investors can gauge better the prospects of the company.

volvo125 ( Date: 31-Mar-2025 12:50) Posted:

I am really not sure.

YFH still has a very huge $1813m in Cash Management not being productively deployed to higher returns investments as at end 2024 (Page 9 FY24 PowerPoint) and earning probably just 4~5% pa return. With so much idle cash on hand, why is YFH still raising even more cash from these new $260m equity injection that requires a high net ROE return of at least 11.15% ?

I can really see a challenge here for YFH to even at least maintain its FY24 EPS and DPS in FY25, especially when there is still a $75m Govt grants+Forex gains in FY24 that is not going to recur in FY25.

I vaguely remember LiuHua (during the webinar) mentioned that these govt grants were some form of rebates relating to the funds being transferred out from China to SG. I do not think we will see more of such grants going forward as YFH has probably already max out it' s capital deployment split (China 45%, SG 55%). Forex could be gain or loss (we assume neutral in FY25). So there could now be a significant potential gap of up to = (75m + 29/0.79) = $112m pre-tax profit that YFH must find means to make in order to achieve a much higher FY25 NPAT of $333m just to maintain it' s FY24 EPS 0.087 and DPS 0.0345.

Am I overthinking or that I read those numbers or assumptions above wrongly ? I am really not sure at this juncture.

HVRRVH ( Date: 31-Mar-2025 04:33) Posted:

I do think they already know where to deploy these new fund, as they confidently said, among others, that they will update accordingly whenever the sale proceeds are deployed to ensure transparency. The returns by maritime investment has increased from 23m to 54m in one short year, and old Ren kept talking about its huge growth potentials so let?s wait and see. Besides, all these moves, the sale of treasury shares and proposed scrip seems to be preparing or aiming to increase market cap and could be part of the ground work for further spinoff.

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I do think they already know where to deploy these new fund, as they confidently said, among others, that they will update accordingly whenever the sale proceeds are deployed to ensure transparency. The returns by maritime investment has increased from 23m to 54m in one short year, and old Ren kept talking about its huge growth potentials so let?s wait and see. Besides, all these moves, the sale of treasury shares and proposed scrip seems to be preparing or aiming to increase market cap and could be part of the ground work for further spinoff.

volvo125 ( Date: 31-Mar-2025 01:39) Posted:

The total new equity injected is $139m + $121m = $260m. The increase in NPAT to at least match FY24 performance and payout is = (330m - 304m) = $29m. This implies that YFH must achieve a net ROE on this new capital = 29/260 = 11.15% (or pre-tax 14.1%). YFH overall net FY24 ROE is just = (304m/4222m) = 7.2% (this is a net overall average ROE including those much lower returns from Cash Mgt and Yield Products ...). Unless YFH already has in mind high returns projects that can beat a net ROE 11.15% for this new $260m capital injection, I can really see a challenge.

volvo125 ( Date: 31-Mar-2025 00:16) Posted:

I really think YFH is going to increase it' s share O/S too much in FY25.

With this 193.5m treasury shares gone, and the proposed script dividend mandate if passed, would mean YFH is going to issue new shares up to 153m to pay for the FY24 0.0345 dividend (say issue at a hypothetical price of 0.795 for example), assuming a 100% opt in rate.

If YFH were to stop SBB going forward due to the much higher share price now, then YFH shares O/S is expecting to increase from the current 3480m to =(3480+194+153) = 3827m for FY25.

With a new much higher shares O/S in FY25, YFH will need to achieve a much higher FY25 NPAT at $333m in order to at least maintain it' s FY24 EPS of 0.087 and DPS 0.0345.

This is a 9.5% or almost $30m increase of NPAT from $304 to $333, else shareholders will see a lower EPS and DPS in FY25.

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Likely for short term it would stay at current level, so YZJF can offer similar scrip price at $0.72 but who knows. As a long long term investor, I can only get more confidence and optimistic of future growth of YZJF and if the price get push up then likely the scrip price would be priced higher too so best scenario for long term investor is the share price stay about the same till scrip price is announced.

ysh2006 ( Date: 30-Mar-2025 18:01) Posted:

So important question how will share price react up or down ?..

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With the upcoming AGM to be conducted soon on 15 April 2025, the management seems to be opening up themselves to many questions on the positive side. Despite planning to redeploy some of the huge cash in hands from cash management department, they still wants to scale up capital and had decided to sell the entire treasury shares. In addition, they could inject a further significant sum into the capital by adopting scrip dividend scheme. Potentially, even 50% of the eligible dividends ended in scrip, the company can boost the capital by $60m. In reference to the sale of treasury shares, it is likely that we would see scrip dividend being offer now. YZJF seems gearing up for much more investment activities specifically into the maritime businesses. The sale of treasury shares and if there is offer of scrip dividend, is almost like a Privte Placement and Preferential Offer! Can' t wait to see what else is up old Ren' s sleeves. He has to release such news over a long weekend some more.

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6 senior excutives of the YZJF group and 2 investors are the buyers. Likely Chinese buyers.

HVRRVH ( Date: 30-Mar-2025 17:25) Posted:

Sale of treasury shares! YZJF is locking big profit by selling existing treasury shares at $0.72, so that' s it, any scrip dividend the shares won' t come from the treasury shares. News has just been released with regard to the sale of treasury shares.

pasttime ( Date: 29-Mar-2025 18:27) Posted:

after the last share buy back. no of share outstanding. 3480450520, treasury shares 193527600.
proposed dividend $0.0345. so 3480450520 will issue dividend $120075542.94.
if maangement proposed script dividend at 5 days average let say $0.80 per shares and if all choose to receive script divdend then need about 150094128 shares.
so if maangement used all treasury shares to do script issue also enough.
the higher the share price the lesser treasury shares needed to be used for script divdend.
it will solve problem of too many treasury shares. increased the market float and hence market cap.
also help the shorts to exit gracefully.

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Sale of treasury shares! YZJF is locking big profit by selling existing treasury shares at $0.72, so that' s it, any scrip dividend the shares won' t come from the treasury shares. News has just been released with regard to the sale of treasury shares.

pasttime ( Date: 29-Mar-2025 18:27) Posted:

after the last share buy back. no of share outstanding. 3480450520, treasury shares 193527600.
proposed dividend $0.0345. so 3480450520 will issue dividend $120075542.94.
if maangement proposed script dividend at 5 days average let say $0.80 per shares and if all choose to receive script divdend then need about 150094128 shares.
so if maangement used all treasury shares to do script issue also enough.
the higher the share price the lesser treasury shares needed to be used for script divdend.
it will solve problem of too many treasury shares. increased the market float and hence market cap.
also help the shorts to exit gracefully.

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Good piece of work. The only variables are the issue price and take up rate. $0.80 issue price is also good guess and maybe the issue price will be between $0.72 [10% discount from around current price] and $0.80 [after 10% discount if price get push up to $0.88], typically the discount may not be that steep and a 7% discount will be good as in Boustead' s recent scrip dividend. Personally I don' t think the price will get push up or down too much but what do I know and we shall see. Indeed it would be good if the scrips come from the existing treasury shares as that way, in a sense no ' new' shares are added and ' fertile water didn' t get flow to others' farmland' lol.

pasttime ( Date: 29-Mar-2025 18:27) Posted:

after the last share buy back. no of share outstanding. 3480450520, treasury shares 193527600.
proposed dividend $0.0345. so 3480450520 will issue dividend $120075542.94.
if maangement proposed script dividend at 5 days average let say $0.80 per shares and if all choose to receive script divdend then need about 150094128 shares.
so if maangement used all treasury shares to do script issue also enough.
the higher the share price the lesser treasury shares needed to be used for script divdend.
it will solve problem of too many treasury shares. increased the market float and hence market cap.
also help the shorts to exit gracefully.

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Ok take your cue, will not comment on ' Take over / Privatisation' speculation any further too.

volvo125 ( Date: 29-Mar-2025 12:14) Posted:

SIC will almost certainly grant the whitewash waiver for both Ren party and independent shareholders as long as the listed coy concerned were to apply. Seeking this whitewash waiver is just a formal protocol YFH needs to go through, nothing more. Ren party collectively hold 29.27% for a long time. If he indeed has underlying intention to take YFH private, he just need to aquire 25m more shares now with $19.9m @0.795 or better still last year with just $8mil @0.32 to trigger the takeover code. $19.9m or $8m is peanut to RenYL. He really doesn' t need to go through all this script dividend stunt to mount a takeover. Whoever is still dreaming of a takeover ..... come back to planet Earth lah ....

And yes, like what HVRRVH has said, I would also be very happy and thankful to kiss Ren' s hand to bid him farewell and walk off with a 90%NAV or higher exit offer to fund my next quest to seek a new deep undervalued target, but I think it is still very much far more realistic to expect YFH to hit > $1.05 (90%NAV) with the increasingly very real spin off narrative at play than to dream of a > $1.05 privatisation exit offer from Ren.

I am firmly rooted on planet Earth. I will not comment further on any exit offer speculation.

HVRRVH ( Date: 28-Mar-2025 22:29) Posted:

ok yes 30% trigger we know but typically it is not hard to get waiver from SGX as can be seen from so many examples. Yes maybe old Ren' s stake will cross 30% owing to scrip but as recently as the webinar couple of months back he said no plan to privatise. And he would be mad to think of it now with the elevated share price compare to months back as mentioned by Volvo125. ok ok i don' t mind privatisation too if there is one with offer matching NAV or at least 90% of NAV but it is not happening and don' t know why you keep harping on it for 2 years.

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ok yes 30% trigger we know but typically it is not hard to get waiver from SGX as can be seen from so many examples. Yes maybe old Ren' s stake will cross 30% owing to scrip but as recently as the webinar couple of months back he said no plan to privatise. And he would be mad to think of it now with the elevated share price compare to months back as mentioned by Volvo125. ok ok i don' t mind privatisation too if there is one with offer matching NAV or at least 90% of NAV but it is not happening and don' t know why you keep harping on it for 2 years.

sgng123 ( Date: 28-Mar-2025 22:14) Posted:

It not abt u,me or anyone in forum. It all about Ren YL stake 29.27% is damn too close to trigger SGX take over rule if he decide to swap
his dividend to shares. On page 4/5 yzjfh disclose what would happen if Ren trigger 30% threhold.
it SGX 30% take over rule which all veteran investors all know.

HVRRVH ( Date: 28-Mar-2025 22:02) Posted:

Agree, a typical investor would encounter scrip dividend at one time or another. Like you mentioned, personal I had it with Boustead, MLT, Lendlease just to name a few. A typical investor will not equate scrip dividend as harbinger of privatisation, and indeed, we have heard from the hourse' s mouth during the webinar not too long ago that there was no plan to privatise YZJF. And yes, hopefully investors would have a good Q& A session with the company in the AGM.

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Please lah, heard of whitewashing or waiver or not? Do you know China Sunsine' s majority shareholder hold 60.3% of total share? Or Raffle' s medical the founder owning 54.85% of the shares? Or Centurion' s Mr Loh having 59.793% of the shares? Many other examples if you do some research.

sgng123 ( Date: 28-Mar-2025 21:37) Posted:

SGX rule take over code any shareholder with > 30% need to make offer to all investors. Ren and son holding 29.27% , the AMT of dividend they received is 35m if converted to scrip share would exceed 30% easily.
Need to apply waiver from SIC but not guaranteed.
If Ren stake cross 30% he needs to make GO to all investors

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Agree, a typical investor would encounter scrip dividend at one time or another. Like you mentioned, personal I had it with Boustead, MLT, Lendlease just to name a few. A typical investor will not equate scrip dividend as harbinger of privatisation, and indeed, we have heard from the hourse' s mouth during the webinar not too long ago that there was no plan to privatise YZJF. And yes, hopefully investors would have a good Q& A session with the company in the AGM.

volvo125 ( Date: 28-Mar-2025 20:53) Posted:

Script dividends are generally offerred with a discount to the some form of pre-determinded average share price at up to 10%, such as in OCBC, DBS, UOB, CapLand, Olam, Boustead .... etc. Nothing is mentioned on the issued price of dividend shares or discount in the announcement. If YFH offers a good discount to the ongoing share price, it is a good option to consider taking. We should ask RenYL for more details on this script dividend during AGM.

Eh ... by the way, I really do not think script dividend has anything to do with privatisation. And I also do not think YFH will privatise any time soon or even in the many years ahead. RenYL could have really done so if he wanted when the share prices were at the rock bottom 0.30s or even low 0.40s but he had openly and repeatedly declared his passionate intent to grow YFH as a listed coy during the various interviews with Edge as well as during the FY24 AGM Q& A which I attended.

HVRRVH ( Date: 28-Mar-2025 18:24) Posted:

Hmm... scrip dividend. Now this one need to think a bit but by default, it should be no brainer to opt for scrip but first thought was that with the cancellation of treasury shares not long ago, now YZJF wants to issue scrips and it is like asking shareholders to subsidise part of SBB cost. Granted it is almost uncomparable since the dividend is $0.0345 and the SBB cost is easily 10 to 15 times of that. My first quick gut is that it has got to do with future spin off in mind. YZJF wants to have a larger sharebase so that post spinoff, the mother and son companies would still have sizable market cap. Let' s see whether this get quiz in AGM, among other things. Can take time to decide.

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pkli899 ( Date: 28-Mar-2025 20:43) Posted:

LOL........what a joke.......read too much into the proposal!

The scheme helps to conserve cash which otherwise would have been given out as dividends.
This cash is then used for expansion of business.
Extra units issued as a results is good for any spin off in future.

HVRRVH ( Date: 28-Mar-2025 18:50) Posted:

Scrip = privatisation lo

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Scrip = privatisation lol

sgng123 ( Date: 28-Mar-2025 18:45) Posted:

Don need 100 year, i had been yelling yzjfh too undervakued for 2 year now we see yzjfh today breached 0.8 unthinkable at that time.
I had been shouting for privatisation for 1 year, now i see hint from scrip dividend scheme, might come truth too.
if had doubt go read up the announcement out at 1732, they hint strongly.

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100 years later you may get it right PRIVATISATION.

sgng123 ( Date: 28-Mar-2025 18:33) Posted:

U still don get the hint lol.
uncle Ren most likely would opt for it pushing his stake over 30%
> 30%= take over unless u get waiver from SIC.
lastly they mention not guarantee to get waiver.
Strong hint of privatisation.

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Hmm... scrip dividend. Now this one need to think a bit but by default, it should be no brainer to opt for scrip but first thought was that with the cancellation of treasury shares not long ago, now YZJF wants to issue scrips and it is like asking shareholders to subsidise part of SBB cost. Granted it is almost uncomparable since the dividend is $0.0345 and the SBB cost is easily 10 to 15 times of that. My first quick gut is that it has got to do with future spin off in mind. YZJF wants to have a larger sharebase so that post spinoff, the mother and son companies would still have sizable market cap. Let' s see whether this get quiz in AGM, among other things. Can take time to decide.

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Entered @ $0.56 on 17.3.25 just to trade the sale of Aussie assets. With the deal completed and SingPost stated that of the sale proceed of $664.2 m, they will use $307.8 m to pay off the debt taken for the same Auusie assets. That left $356.4 m but it is likely that they will use part of it to pay off other debts as well. How much is anyone guess and they have $903.4 m debts as per FY2023 report including the $307.8 m. So net off it will have $903.4 - $307.8 = $596 m debt vs $356.4 m left over from the sale of Auusie assets. It look healthy since it still has other valuable non core asset namely SingPost Centre that value waiting to be unlocked. Anyway, $356.4 m is about $0.158 per share so presuming they use half to further reduce the outstanding $596m debt, shareholders still can look forward to at least 5 to 7 cents special dividend. As SingPost remaining businesses doesn' t to be doing quite well, it look like they really have to sell SingPost Centre, which it carries in its book at $532.6 m as of FY2023 AR. Now, this is key, the latest market value of SingPost could be worth $1.25 - $1.6b based on nearby property' s value, in particular, the sale of Paya Lebar Green in Nov 2022 for $1.068b or $2,950 psf. SingPost is about 500,000 sf so it is worth about $1.475b but how SingPost may not want to sell if not what else is left?

Owing to the aforesaid, I was tempted to sell today for quick profit but on 2nd though, perhaps I can wait and see so that' s that.

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Would like to emphasis that since the idea of spinoff was revealed in the interview at TheEdge, the price momentum has been strong and perhaps also owing to good FY24' s performance and committed high dividend payout ratio. This reminded me of Centurion which also floated about spinoff to list as a REIT and its price has not weaken since then, from below $1 and now has hit well above $1. I think if the companies have seizable NAV and have clear values to unlock via spinoff, it should do well especially if post spinoff their business focuses are clearly distinguishiable from the businesses of the parent company. In this regard, Boustead didn' t do too well but hat off to FF Wong, he remerged Boustead Project back with Boustead and that' s not all, he then ' spinoff' assets that is largely under BP by exchanging it with shares of Unified Industrial, a big real estate player and now Boustead price also increased albeit slightly. To sum it up, for super long holders I think it is worth your time to read the just released FY24 AR, the newly created Cash Management department helmed by the obviously bright Mr Chiang and the key Martime Fund ought to do even better in time to come. Also, it is noteworthy that old Ren' s salary is only $60,000 SGD! He is highly aligned with shareholders and he would get his money via dividends!

HVRRVH ( Date: 12-Mar-2025 17:59) Posted:

Completed my accumulation of this stock for the time being. Wouldn' t chase the price now and shall be contended with yearly dividends and sit tightly on paper gains. Price should hit $0.69 before CD/XD to establish dividend yield of 5% and going forward, all eyes is on old Ren and his team whether they can continue to deliver the results. Old Ren has to come back to steer the ship after 1 year plus, right away, YZJF found new direction and ventured into Maritime business. Another year elpased and old Ren has steady the ship and just to highlight, 2H24' s eps is $0.0562, if this trend is keep up, going forward, we could be seeing eps of at least $0.11 per year. This would translate to yearly dividend of at least $0.044 and a yield of 5% that would place the share price at $0.88. Having said so, more could be on the card especially old Ren mentioned to The Edge about spinning off. This, I suspect, could be the main factor driving the share price now or else, there is no reason for such positive sentiment since Chinese businesses are in the crosshair of US tariffs. We shall see.

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Maybe but this may not be the cause, since the rentals should be in arrears for sometime already and has not been part of the sources for the DPU. This is good lah, free up space for new tenants with more viable businesses. Nowadays people seldom go cinemas.

eddyeddy ( Date: 27-Mar-2025 11:44) Posted:

DPU will be lesser .