ShareJunction - Member Posts

Back

Latest Posts By stevenk - Senior

About stevenk

First < Newer 321-340 of 497 Older> Last

16-Aug-2013 12:41

Neptune Orient L Rg / NOL

Go to Message

x 0

Hello,

Are you aware of the QE tapering impact to those company like Olam and NOL who are over-leveraged and in huge debt? Did you notice that the US 10 year treasury yield is now 2.95% and the trend is going up. And do you understand what is the impact if this yield keep going up?

Good Post Bad Post

16-Aug-2013 11:03

Neptune Orient L Rg / NOL

Go to Message

x 1

don worry too much about ship as it do not benefit from QE3 cash injection. The stocks should be watching out is those bond like stock offering good yield returns example like starhub, steng , sing post etc. Together with property/bank/REITs are all in danger of big corrections as their valuation is being pushed up to unsustainable level soon to crash. Growth stocks might be safer bet to place money as world economy continue to improve. Fed reserve most likely would slowly cut the QE money injection according to improvement in economy condition, no one want to be held as scapegoat for causing another financial crisis even republican congress also scared to repeat 2011 debt ceiling crisis.

Good Post Bad Post

16-Aug-2013 06:38

Neptune Orient L Rg / NOL

Go to Message

x 0

Nice rose syrup maybe us trying to trim debt thru rising their currency

Good Post Bad Post

16-Aug-2013 00:41

Neptune Orient L Rg / NOL

Go to Message

x 2

x 0

Stay calm, don't panic. Thanks to Fed's inconsistent messages on tapering QE3, you can expect this to happen every now and then. Stock index can fluctuate wildly, going down 3% a day and recovering 3% the next day. However, economic progress is much more stable and predictable. Timing your investment based on economic data might be a better choice as stock index merely reflects investors phycology which still strongly influenced by actual economic data in the long term.

Today sell off in Dow is mainly due to lower sales projections by major businesses. The following is (only) my personal opinion on this matter (NOT FACTS):

Though signs of economic recovery is weak, I am rather confident that real recovery is on the way. The positive signs should not be temporary.
I am speculating that the lower sales projections might merely be those senior managements' efforts to lower their performance benchmark and thereby greatly increase their year end remuneration, should they exceed the mark by a lot.
Real concern: Possible disruption on Asian economies when Fed taper QE3. India, Indonesia and Myanmar are among the most vulnerable. Although Singapore is expected by many analysts to weather the possible disruption (and I agree with them), it would not escape unscathed if any Asian economy falls victim to the currency attack. Reason being currency speculators, who have made a heap from collapsing other Asian countries, would earn more bullets to fight against the rest of the Asian economies. The impact: A giant snowball running through Asia, sending Asia economies falling like bowling pins.

In a nutshell, I suggest ignoring the actual date of QE3** tapering and US big corporations' forecast, instead focus on the measures taken by Asian economies and the way FED is announcing**** the end of QE3.

**So long as the date fall within Jan 2014 to June 2014 it should be fine. Anything shorter would kill weak sign of recovery, while anything longer would increase US deficit and the risk of another crisis. Despite some Fed members claiming QE3 would be ended in late 2013, considering the weak economic pulse now, I remain highly skeptical about its possibility.

****The way that the announcement is made, is more important than the actual date itself. If FED were to stop QE3 as soon as the announcement ends, leaving little time for the market to react, trampling is bounded to happen as the panic investors rush to get out of the depreciating Asian currencies- 1997 Asian currencies crisis is almost certain to repeat itself. The best case would be Fed giving a few months worth of warning, allowing investors to retreat in an organized manner.

Good Post Bad Post

15-Aug-2013 22:50

Neptune Orient L Rg / NOL

Go to Message

x 0

dji now minus 200 off

Good Post Bad Post

15-Aug-2013 22:45

Neptune Orient L Rg / NOL

Go to Message

x 0

Top 3 carriers Maersk, MSC and CMA had joined in the Sep GRI US400-500, most likely another rate success. This GRI thing is a kelong as long these three leaders united in their pricing, the GRI is a guarantee success. No undercutting by these 3 also stabilised the freight rate, imagine what would happen next year when they officially formed P3 controlling 50% Europe 30% transpacific, rate going to jump due to no competition, Kelong coordination to maximise profit.

Good Post Bad Post

15-Aug-2013 22:31

Neptune Orient L Rg / NOL

Go to Message

x 0

IT might be very fast upward swing for ship as BB always priced in future growth and once they are dead sure world economy going to recover in 2014, they buy up everything and ship might go higher due to lesser floating shares in market, covering of big shorting position by hedge funds and lastly as usual when ship go up punter chase it herd mentality ( we punters chase it, don matter how high it go just need volume and upward trading pattern lol). But again need to see BB ploughing in before we do anything, currently tapering fear ongoing dow jones down by 200 pt due to better jobless claim data out, it is crazy good economy news = bad news for US stocks lol.

Good Post Bad Post

15-Aug-2013 20:34

Neptune Orient L Rg / NOL

Go to Message

x 1

x 0

Lol, not so fast yet.

Try to think of the world in this way:

1) US and Europe are the world's market, they represent most of the world demand.

2) China is the world factory, they supply US and Europe with manufactured goods.

3) South East Asia (SEA) is the factory's backyard, providing raw materials which are need by China to complete the goods.

Thus, US and Europe might have shown sign of recovery. But it still takes some time for their demands to first reach China and for China to start demanding raw materials from SEA. You can use China's growth data as a gauge to measure NOL recovery. As soon as the world factory starts running again, NOL's ships would be kept busy transporting in and out of the factory.

Though I do not have an accurate way of knowing when will this moment comes, I still attempt to forecast with trend analysis. According to my forecast, the quickest is by the end of this December, assuming Asian economies would not be severely affected by outflow of funds.

ruanlai ( Date: 15-Aug-2013 07:54) Posted:

France exits recession, German growth beats.....

SO NOL will up above $1.20 from today

Good Post Bad Post

15-Aug-2013 08:49

Neptune Orient L Rg / NOL

Go to Message

x 0

Dun ruan ruan kong. Always wanna entice others to buy.

Good Post Bad Post

15-Aug-2013 07:54

Neptune Orient L Rg / NOL

Go to Message

x 0

France exits recession, German growth beats.....

SO NOL will up above $1.20 from today

Good Post Bad Post

14-Aug-2013 23:24

Neptune Orient L Rg / NOL

Go to Message

x 0

thanks Hawkeye for correcting me =p

Good Post Bad Post

14-Aug-2013 22:53

Neptune Orient L Rg / NOL

Go to Message

x 0

Cosco Shipping are exploring the Northern Artic route which summer melted more due to global warming but this route will still be frozen in late automn and early spring meaning only open about 4 months a year even if passable. This route will affect Singapore Port and Singapore economy.

Cosco Singapore and Yanzijiang is shipbuilder, does not matter what route they take. Shipbuilding business is as usual.

NOL is crucial to support Singapore import and export. Even if ship reduce, NOL will support Singapore because NOL belong and keep Singapore alive. Temasek support NOL and hold 66% share.

NOL profitablility depend on world economic activity and NOL will go uptrend now that US and Europe and growing. China is still growing although slower.

8bliz8 ( Date: 14-Aug-2013 18:39) Posted:

YZJ, NOL, Cosco, how we know their shipping routes lies to which region most???

Good Post Bad Post

14-Aug-2013 18:39

Neptune Orient L Rg / NOL

Go to Message

x 0

YZJ, NOL, Cosco, how we know their shipping routes lies to which region most???

Good Post Bad Post

14-Aug-2013 17:33

Neptune Orient L Rg / NOL

Go to Message

x 0

Europe 2Q GDP back to growth +0.3% ending 18 months of recession. ship also rebound when news pop out in the afternoon.

Good Post Bad Post

13-Aug-2013 20:15

Neptune Orient L Rg / NOL

Go to Message

x 0

Not much upside movement due to low market volume. Need ship to return to positive core earning before tax etc in 3Q13 then can see light. Since nol management confident of exceeding 2012 result in 2H13, we just had to wait and see. No trading or shorting for me till outlook is clear after 3Q13. lot of shortists in forum had been calling for $1 for 2 years already lol but never came, they need to borrow more shares to short. Risk off sentiment in market due to FED tapering so all investors in sideline.

Good Post Bad Post

13-Aug-2013 18:49

Neptune Orient L Rg / NOL

Go to Message

x 0

$1 coming soon?!?!?!!!!?

Good Post Bad Post

13-Aug-2013 18:43

Neptune Orient L Rg / NOL

Go to Message

x 0

Stock price still chui

sgng123 ( Date: 13-Aug-2013 17:37) Posted:

http://www.lloydslist.com/ll/sector/containers/article427652.ece

2Q worst quarter for carriers in 2013 even Maersk might also lose money, luckily it is over now and 3Q freight rate is looking brighter

Good Post Bad Post

13-Aug-2013 17:37

Neptune Orient L Rg / NOL

Go to Message

x 0

Good Post Bad Post

13-Aug-2013 11:46

Neptune Orient L Rg / NOL

Go to Message

x 0

Don get too excited yet, stay caution and wait for BB involvement ( high volume trade in the green) before taking the plunge.

Today typical of low volume trade, retail players day shorting and later in the afternoon covering short position.

135K TEU chartered ships would be retired from 3Q13 till 2014, lot of cost savings in the pipeline, freight rate in 3Q most likely rebound similar to what happened in 2Q12. Peak season in transpacific might be delayed and extended into 4Q due to no show bookings and roll overs. 1 August PSS only applied by USL and Hapag Llord, most carriers apply it on this thurs 15 Aug so might as well watch out for SCFI movement. Sep 1 transpacific GRI 400 and Europe GRI 350-500, might get most of GRI thorough as carriers discipline holding.

Lastly something out of forum, anyone had applied for HDB BTO 2 rm in July ?

Good Post Bad Post

12-Aug-2013 21:43

Neptune Orient L Rg / NOL

Go to Message

x 0

A little advice:
For investors who is longing: hold your standings. this counter will move up and perform better than the rest in long term (2-3 years) ba provided economy is picking up (especially US + Europe).

sgng123 ( Date: 12-Aug-2013 17:37) Posted:

Prepare for ship change of direction soon, NOL investors hold on and enjoy the rides upward. I am waiting for the sweet spot for punting when share price rise high enough to entice people to punt resulting in higher volume. Singapore GDP 2Q up 3.8%, manufacturing up 32% good sign for export demand since Singapore is open and export oriented economy, good guide for future demand. Watching stock go up and shortists got burnt part of the joy lol. By the way from 2Q, I noticed that there is a huge improvement in fuel oil consumption, 1Q = 113K metric ton saved vs 2Q = 229K metric tons. Almost double the amount of oil saved, suspect nol this year might be improvising extra slow steaming coupled with the 10 ( 2011/12 new deliveries) and 2 ( 1Q new built) fuel efficiency ships. 78K TEU new builts delivered in 2Q and no chartered ships returned, transpacific load load dipped to 86% compared to 91% in 1Q. 1 to 2 new ships might be deployed in transpacific in 2Q to explain the dip in load factor, 3Q might see 10+ smaller chartered ships returned to accommodate 78K new built. All these would result in similar cost saving in 3Q and later in 4Q when more ships would be returned due to another 5 ships delivered in 2H. But the best part is top 3 carriers forming P3 might be planning to take out less fuel efficient/ chartered ships from transpacific/ Europe trade lane to prepare for new built deployment in P3 on 2Q14. Oil also peaked and slowly declining due to low demand toward end of year. 3Q13 NOL fiscal result would be very interesting to watch due to freight rate recovering and further cost improvement.

Good Post Bad Post

First < Newer 321-340 of 497 Older> Last

ShareJunction Version: 27 Nov 2020 ver - All Rights Reserved. Copyright ShareJunction Pte. Ltd. Disclaimer: All prices from are delayed. ShareJunction does not provide you with any financial advice. We are not into the business of providing any investment advice. See our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy of using this website. Data is delayed for varying periods of time depending on the exchange, but for at least 15 minutes. Copyright © SIX Financial Information Ltd. and its licensors. All Rights reserved. Further distribution and use by third parties prohibited. SIX Financial Information and its licensors make no warranty for information displayed and accept no liability for data and prices. SIX Financial Information reserves the right to adapt and/or alter this website at any time without prior notice.

Web design by FoundationFlux. Hosted with Signetique Cloud.