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Latest Posts By earlybird14 - Supreme      About earlybird14
First   < Newer   3101-3120 of 3305   Older>   Last  

28-Jan-2014 09:53 China Fishery   /   China Fishery - Low PE       Go to Message
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With the support of Carley Group, price above 52 is not a problem.

Don't complain about the dilution, you can choose to buy low now, your entry price is still much lower than Carley Group.
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27-Jan-2014 15:36 China Fishery   /   China Fishery - Low PE       Go to Message
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This is the best time to load China Fish.

Dow will recover tonight with its own strong recovery so long as china is slow down continually.
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27-Jan-2014 15:33 China Fishery   /   China Fishery - Low PE       Go to Message
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Dow long overdue correction flush down all the stock in the market.

Even the hope of AGM and EGM rally on china fish.

The resolution of warrant exercise will definitely pass through (should be pass through with 82% support)

Will the rally start tomorrow for Carley Group to exercise the warrant.

Sell queue is weak with low volume, Carley Group can easily buy up till 52cents without less resistance from tomorrow onward.

earlybird14      ( Date: 25-Jan-2014 12:40) Posted:

US market sell down badly last night.

Will it affect china fish AGM and egm
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25-Jan-2014 12:40 China Fishery   /   China Fishery - Low PE       Go to Message
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x 0 		US market sell down badly last night.

Will it affect china fish AGM and egm
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24-Jan-2014 09:23 China Fishery   /   China Fishery - Low PE       Go to Message
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x 0 		China fish has shifted its main operation from North Pacific Ocean to South Pacific Ocean. Revenue in South Pacific Ocean increase from 30% to 60% may be up to 70% subjected to where CF fleet go to( this year will be South Pacific because of biomass increase after 1 year of rest).

China fish facilities in Peru are old through numerous acquisition, copeinca facilities are new and always report to hit fishing quota earlier than the fishing season end. Hopefully, these 2 companies can merge properly and fully utilize each other to reduce the cost and improve margin further.

earlybird14      ( Date: 23-Jan-2014 18:01) Posted:



Look at Revenue in past 4 year in different division

Division - 2010, 2011, 2012 & 2013

Russia Operation - 387Million, 374.7Million, 375Million, 361Million. Suffering in Monopoly case in Russia for past 1 year, revenue is not affected. It is expected the Revenue will be maintain @ 360 to 380Million Level

Peru Operation - 136.2Million, 170.1Million, 179.1Million, 165Million - After Acquisition of Copeinca, The Revenue will jump 200% to 500 to 600Million

CF Fleet Operation - 15.4 Million, 140.6 Million, 49.9Million, 27.9Million - Earlybird read news somewhere but cannot find now, the CF fleet which was rest and recorded impairment loss in last year has deployed their CF Fleet to Southen Pacific Ocean - The revenuw will be expected to resume to 70 to 100Million.

The total revenue which will be expected in 2014 will be 930 to 1080 USD Million which is 67% to 94%.

Net profit margin in past 4 years were, 21%, 15%, 12%, 15%. With average margin of 15%, The net profit will be 139.5 to 162Million or EPS of 6.98 to 8.1 cents  to. PE ratio will be   6.44 to 5.55. Based on 30% net profit dividend payment(average), dividend will be   2.1 to 2.43 or 4.67 to 5.4% dividend yield.

This is the estimation from Earlybird, since no brokers or bankers are willing to issue report. Earlybird give some guidance on it. This is why China Fish allow 52cents as warrant exercise price for Carley group, because this is the minimum price that China Fish shall worth in 1 year time.

Let's see if China fish can go up to 71cents as what other Bros estimate its actual value.

All the best to all vested.

 

 

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24-Jan-2014 09:14 China Fishery   /   China Fishery - Low PE       Go to Message
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x 0 		Last chance to load before AGM and EGM.
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23-Jan-2014 18:01 China Fishery   /   China Fishery - Low PE       Go to Message
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Look at Revenue in past 4 year in different division

Division - 2010, 2011, 2012 & 2013

Russia Operation - 387Million, 374.7Million, 375Million, 361Million. Suffering in Monopoly case in Russia for past 1 year, revenue is not affected. It is expected the Revenue will be maintain @ 360 to 380Million Level

Peru Operation - 136.2Million, 170.1Million, 179.1Million, 165Million - After Acquisition of Copeinca, The Revenue will jump 200% to 500 to 600Million

CF Fleet Operation - 15.4 Million, 140.6 Million, 49.9Million, 27.9Million - Earlybird read news somewhere but cannot find now, the CF fleet which was rest and recorded impairment loss in last year has deployed their CF Fleet to Southen Pacific Ocean - The revenuw will be expected to resume to 70 to 100Million.

The total revenue which will be expected in 2014 will be 930 to 1080 USD Million which is 67% to 94%.

Net profit margin in past 4 years were, 21%, 15%, 12%, 15%. With average margin of 15%, The net profit will be 139.5 to 162Million or EPS of 6.98 to 8.1 cents  to. PE ratio will be   6.44 to 5.55. Based on 30% net profit dividend payment(average), dividend will be   2.1 to 2.43 or 4.67 to 5.4% dividend yield.

This is the estimation from Earlybird, since no brokers or bankers are willing to issue report. Earlybird give some guidance on it. This is why China Fish allow 52cents as warrant exercise price for Carley group, because this is the minimum price that China Fish shall worth in 1 year time.

Let's see if China fish can go up to 71cents as what other Bros estimate its actual value.

All the best to all vested.

 

 
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23-Jan-2014 17:34 China Fishery   /   China Fishery - Low PE       Go to Message
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Look at operation environment, China Fish prospect is positive

1) Russian Pollock  Monopoly - Case is closed. Supplier changed from FAS to RSC. Russia government doesn't kick Pacific Andes out from the market. The 65% revenue is safe, US 361Million

2) Peru Anchony quota - The quota was cut 70% in 2012 to 2013 2 fishing season. Now the quota is return back. The 29.9% revenue will be stable and increase after acquistion of Copeinca which the quota of anchovy(12%) is 2 times of what China Fish(6 to 7%)  has. Revenue will raise from 165Million to 495USDMillion and become the main revenue source for China Fish

3) CF Fleet Operation - Decision of not operation in South Pacific Ocean due to the low quota in South Pacific Ocean and only establish fishing operation in Namibia. Revenue 27.9Million.
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23-Jan-2014 16:58 China Fishery   /   China Fishery - Low PE       Go to Message
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Just keep and wait loh.

What at front to this company is positive. Fish consumption is getting higher. Compared to other commodity market, Fish price, fish meal price and fish oil price are the most sustainable and are growing as compared to 5 year price. This industry is less competitive and difficult to penetrate.

danytan      ( Date: 23-Jan-2014 16:53) Posted:

have to be decisive. anyway recall u had bought in some much higher, hope it evens out.

earlybird14      ( Date: 23-Jan-2014 16:51) Posted:



purchased some during last few sell down @ 45.

Europe market ignore China PMI index. US will ignore too.

Fact show that the worse china is, the better US and Europe will be.
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23-Jan-2014 16:51 China Fishery   /   China Fishery - Low PE       Go to Message
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purchased some during last few sell down @ 45.

Europe market ignore China PMI index. US will ignore too.

Fact show that the worse china is, the better US and Europe will be.

danytan      ( Date: 23-Jan-2014 16:46) Posted:

Loaded in the end?

earlybird14      ( Date: 23-Jan-2014 16:45) Posted:



Come to end for today. Big buy wall stand at 45cents.

Tomorrow shall be last day to load low.
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23-Jan-2014 16:45 China Fishery   /   China Fishery - Low PE       Go to Message
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Come to end for today. Big buy wall stand at 45cents.

Tomorrow shall be last day to load low.
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23-Jan-2014 13:52 China Fishery   /   China Fishery - Low PE       Go to Message
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The lower the weakholder can sell, the higher profit that i can earn.

TP is still 52cents AGM+-2days.

Warrant @ 52cents will be exercise next day after AGM approval.
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23-Jan-2014 13:48 China Fishery   /   China Fishery - Low PE       Go to Message
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I bet on AGM & EGM in next week and believe market shall react positive in the week of CNY.

I will buy more later.

danytan      ( Date: 23-Jan-2014 13:40) Posted:

actually 45 is a good price lol

earlybird14      ( Date: 23-Jan-2014 13:39) Posted:



Big fish eat small fish.

No buying, seem like trying to break 44.5 soon.

After breaking 44.5, just wait for weakholder selling to them
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23-Jan-2014 13:39 China Fishery   /   China Fishery - Low PE       Go to Message
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Big fish eat small fish.

No buying, seem like trying to break 44.5 soon.

After breaking 44.5, just wait for weakholder selling to them.

CWC2929      ( Date: 23-Jan-2014 13:31) Posted:



Yes agreed.....Humans can do anything.........that the reason why 95% loss.......

 

earlybird14      ( Date: 23-Jan-2014 13:27) Posted:



China fish daily trading volume is below 1000lots.

Suddenly surging in volume mean contra player and short term player joining to play the game
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23-Jan-2014 13:31 China Fishery   /   China Fishery - Low PE       Go to Message
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543 lots sell down @ 45.

anymore?   
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23-Jan-2014 13:27 China Fishery   /   China Fishery - Low PE       Go to Message
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China fish daily trading volume is below 1000lots.

Suddenly surging in volume mean contra player and short term player joining to play the game.

CWC2929      ( Date: 23-Jan-2014 13:22) Posted:



stocks like CF also got pip traders and contra players!!???.......

But sometime HUmans can do alot of funny things......... 

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23-Jan-2014 13:08 China Fishery   /   China Fishery - Low PE       Go to Message
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Last rally and volume peak on Wed and Thur. Wed contra players  are force sell today. Thur contra players choose to sell today or force sell tomorrow. Tomorrow is friday, no sign of pumping on friday.

Suggest to pick slowly these 2 days at different price level.

Monday shall be getting better, AGM shall has some positive movement since Management shall give some positive guidance for the result of Peru fishing which will reflect in  1Q and 2Q result.

danytan      ( Date: 23-Jan-2014 12:55) Posted:

What does force selling mean in this context? Contra end date?

earlybird14      ( Date: 23-Jan-2014 12:48) Posted:



Think to buy more. see how is afternoon trading.

Today is force selling day, may see even ugly panic selling later
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23-Jan-2014 12:48 China Fishery   /   China Fishery - Low PE       Go to Message
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Think to buy more. see how is afternoon trading.

Today is force selling day, may see even ugly panic selling later.

xkclzf      ( Date: 23-Jan-2014 12:39) Posted:

I still hold

danytan      ( Date: 23-Jan-2014 12:31) Posted:

Who still vested as of today?
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23-Jan-2014 12:29 China Fishery   /   China Fishery - Low PE       Go to Message
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x 0 		Ng family and Carley group has 82% share. What you expect in resolution in AGM or EGM? It was decided since the day it announced

guoyanyunyan      ( Date: 23-Jan-2014 12:20) Posted:

...agenda / resolution etc for AGM/EGM will pass through smoothly..effect already reflected in the price ...
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23-Jan-2014 11:55 China Fishery   /   China Fishery - Low PE       Go to Message
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x 0 		If u think so, it will break and force selling. Resistance will be broken in force selling day.

guoyanyunyan      ( Date: 23-Jan-2014 11:52) Posted:

...will previous resistance at $0.445 on 10, 13 Jan turn support...?..kiv...
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