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Latest Posts By cheongsl - Master      About cheongsl
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18-Jan-2013 21:29 Straits Times Index   /   STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors       Go to Message
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x 0 		Maybe this year best post of the year will also kana.  Never saw such a facinating post before, must compliment.

medivh      ( Date: 18-Jan-2013 21:21) Posted:



 

This one wins the best post of the day! Keep up the good work! Smiley


Octavia      ( Date: 18-Jan-2013 12:45) Posted:

I dont think  STI would drop to 2000 in the near term...

STI and the region are trending higher with stimulus package coming out from US,China and Japan.STI is looking towards 3300 in the horizon.

Most traders /investors rebutted your prediction and  shake head

Rob, what do you think of Sifu Iso prediction,will it happen?



oprah, will you support Iso ?



Sam?



Obama you support STI 3300...?Smiley 379



Good Post  Bad Post 
18-Jan-2013 21:16 YZJ Shipbldg SGD   /   Yangzijiang Chart Updates       Go to Message
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Seems like you have mislead that Baltic Dry Index as the freight Rate.

The Baltic Dry Index is an index, it unit is index point not $. It assesement is mainly on four main group of ship. For each group it assesement based on the time-charter hire rates.

BDI = ((CapesizeTCavg + PanamaxTCavg + SupramaxTCavg + HandysizeTCavg)/ 4)) x multiplier

Thus this figure will not be linear, thus a marginal increase in demand can push the index higher quickly.

  The 11,793points high was created by China demand in raw material for olympiad, thus any improvement in China economy will be good news for the BDI. That is why I find it quite strange that you mention that the China economy does not affect the shipping demand.

 

ynnek1267      ( Date: 18-Jan-2013 13:58) Posted:



http://www.google.com.sg/imgres?q=380+cst+bunker+fuel+chart& um=1& hl=en& tbo=d& biw=1060& bih=569& tbm=isch& tbnid=Bibx98MRBv4zPM:& imgrefurl=http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S030505481100205X& docid=0iD9igbjLXUFPM& imgurl=http://ars.els-cdn.com/content/image/1-s2.0-S030505481100205X-gr1.jpg& w=565& h=368& ei=PeP4UMSKA8aM0AX2rYHQDw& zoom=1& iact=rc& dur=77& sig=107727637379575256864& page=1& tbnh=121& tbnw=186& start=0& ndsp=17& ved=1t:429,r:2,s:0,i:84& tx=78& ty=60

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BUNKSI38:IND

This is why. What oil price now? What oil price in 2004? What oil price in 2013? What bunker oil price in 2004 is about 200dollar, now is 621dollars. 3Times!!!!

What is your salary in 2004? What is your salary in 2013? 1.5 to 2 times?

In the world there is one thing call INFLATION. WAHAHAHA!!!!

You go to ask them to burn seawater to run the bulk carrier, don't need money. WAHAHAHA!!!!

Your parents combined salary  with  3000 dollars can let you go university in 2004. Now 3000 dollars can only pay 4Room HDB rental fee. WAHAHAHA!!!!

WAKE UP OR NOT. WAHAHAHA!!!!!

Any way, frog in hot pot. WAHAHAHA!!!!

cheongsl      ( Date: 18-Jan-2013 13:25) Posted:

So what is your basis that BDI need to be above 2000 inorder for vessels to suvive? before 2004 it is trade below 2000, it still suvive for so long many decade. It is only when the economy pick up and the vessel that is not enough for the shipping that push the BDI towards 11000 and above in 2008. This will happen in the coming years as what I have mention previously. If you think vice versa it is your choice, I don't force you to agree with me. But for the BDI chart it is clearly showing a higher low
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18-Jan-2013 18:14 YZJ Shipbldg SGD   /   Yangzijiang Chart Updates       Go to Message
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x 0 		Because he is the one that short, but the price did not go further much  that is why he is  so desperate to clear, and continue to badmouth the counter. Just let him have the chances to de-stress lah, anyway he give us to changes to pick up at lower price.

Bopanha      ( Date: 18-Jan-2013 16:31) Posted:

Just because someone shorted, has he go to continue to badmouth the counter?   Imagine quite lowly person doing lowly things, just ignore.
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18-Jan-2013 13:25 YZJ Shipbldg SGD   /   Yangzijiang Chart Updates       Go to Message
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x 0 		So what is your basis that BDI need to be above 2000 inorder for vessels to suvive? before 2004 it is trade below 2000, it still suvive for so long many decade. It is only when the economy pick up and the vessel that is not enough for the shipping that push the BDI towards 11000 and above in 2008. This will happen in the coming years as what I have mention previously. If you think vice versa it is your choice, I don't force you to agree with me. But for the BDI chart it is clearly showing a higher low.

ynnek1267      ( Date: 18-Jan-2013 13:15) Posted:



Wahahaha 820??? peak time in 2008 is 11000+ this is when all the orders flowing in to sustain till today ship building market. So when you expect it hit 1000? 2000?

Do you know 2000 and above is the breakeven for dry bulk carrier market? Now they are bleeding, where got money to buy new vessels. Wahahaha!!!!!!!

I thought what news. It is just because new year coal and iron ore restocking to make DBI jump a bit. Wahahaha

New orders???? tomorrow BDI jump to 2000 130% overnight, may be can save your YZJ, Wahahaha!!!!

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND/chart

cheongsl      ( Date: 18-Jan-2013 12:31) Posted:



Seems like you are still remaiding in early last year, as the price of BDI show the demand for shipping is changing. The vessels dismantle have been such a red hot business for the last few years due to oversupply. With the vessel dismantle and various order cancel for last year and the year before, the shipping industries will be facing demand that is shown in the BDI reversal trend. Thus the ship building industries is current at it worst time, and the future is bright that is my analysis, you can don't agreed with me as it is your choice.

Just check the BDI yesterday raised by 39 points to 820
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18-Jan-2013 12:31 YZJ Shipbldg SGD   /   Yangzijiang Chart Updates       Go to Message
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Seems like you are still remaiding in early last year, as the price of BDI show the demand for shipping is changing. The vessels dismantle have been such a red hot business for the last few years due to oversupply. With the vessel dismantle and various order cancel for last year and the year before, the shipping industries will be facing demand that is shown in the BDI reversal trend. Thus the ship building industries is current at it worst time, and the future is bright that is my analysis, you can don't agreed with me as it is your choice.

Just check the BDI yesterday raised by 39 points to 820.

New123      ( Date: 18-Jan-2013 11:18) Posted:

breaking down of 1.015 will be going down to 95 cents ..Mkt is flooded with all types of vessels. Cancellation of order is very high..

akchua      ( Date: 18-Jan-2013 11:13) Posted:



I placed 1000 lots at $1.00.

If you are so bearish, please short YZJ until $1.00.

I would be very happy, Thank you so much.
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18-Jan-2013 12:16 YZJ Shipbldg SGD   /   Yangzijiang Chart Updates       Go to Message
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x 0 		No, it is refering to the price reaction of Cosco  during the Hong wei, China Hong Xing and China Gao Xian suspension, where 3 stocks are being suspended within 1 month period.

ILoveTehO      ( Date: 18-Jan-2013 08:49) Posted:

Cosco got suspended before ?

cheongsl      ( Date: 18-Jan-2013 07:12) Posted:



How confident with your claim on china share suspended  == China all share went into free fall?

Lets take a look at ChinaNTown before issuing the trading halt, the share prices is increasing and no significant drop of share price with major volume changes.



Lets take a look at 2011, where within one month there are 3 shares being suspend.



Hong Wei went into trading halt with price suddenly decrease drastically and volume increase.



China Hong Xing trading halt and suspend the price drop drastically and volume increase.



China Gao Xian trading halt and suspend, before that price drop drastically and volume increase.

Base on the graph, the announcement should not be that bad, otherwise there should be drastic change in price and volume before the trading halt.

Lets take a look at the 3 major china shares list in SGX  performance during the horrible month of 3 masketer suspend.

 

Yanlord which is at its downward trend, did it drop drastically? No, infact it retrace upward.



Yangzi Jiang which is at the downward trend, what happen after the suspend? It retrace up.



Cosco also in the down trend, but after the suspend, it retrace upward.

It is not the suspension that cause the price to retracement upward, but the price action of the market. Ofcourse there are shortist in this market during the three masketer suspension within a month, but they are just being taken out by the market.

 

 

 
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18-Jan-2013 07:28 YZJ Shipbldg SGD   /   Yangzijiang Chart Updates       Go to Message
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What is happening to Yangzijiang is a breakout retracement. It has breakout from the long terms downward trend, and currently retrace to get the support.



The retracement fall is join together with shortest force (which warrant issue, rumours of s-chip suspension, etc.), this will be good, as the support will be build up more quickly and the subsequent upward motion will be even stronger.



I am waiting at around 0.965 area for my next small entry, if the shortest manage to push that far. But I believe my 1.025 entry is the last entry for this support buildup, as price did not drop too much yesterday and also volume declay, most likely next few day will see the next fireworks.

 
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18-Jan-2013 07:12 YZJ Shipbldg SGD   /   Yangzijiang Chart Updates       Go to Message
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How confident with your claim on china share suspended  == China all share went into free fall?

Lets take a look at ChinaNTown before issuing the trading halt, the share prices is increasing and no significant drop of share price with major volume changes.



Lets take a look at 2011, where within one month there are 3 shares being suspend.



Hong Wei went into trading halt with price suddenly decrease drastically and volume increase.



China Hong Xing trading halt and suspend the price drop drastically and volume increase.



China Gao Xian trading halt and suspend, before that price drop drastically and volume increase.

Base on the graph, the announcement should not be that bad, otherwise there should be drastic change in price and volume before the trading halt.

Lets take a look at the 3 major china shares list in SGX  performance during the horrible month of 3 masketer suspend.

 

Yanlord which is at its downward trend, did it drop drastically? No, infact it retrace upward.



Yangzi Jiang which is at the downward trend, what happen after the suspend? It retrace up.



Cosco also in the down trend, but after the suspend, it retrace upward.

It is not the suspension that cause the price to retracement upward, but the price action of the market. Ofcourse there are shortist in this market during the three masketer suspension within a month, but they are just being taken out by the market.

 

 

 

ynnek1267      ( Date: 17-Jan-2013 16:40) Posted:



So die hard.

ChinaNtown halt for 3 days. Today is last day. If tomorrow suspended, I see you run or don't run. Wahahaha!!!!

Another round of S-chip crisis. Wahahah!!!!!!
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17-Jan-2013 12:15 YZJ Shipbldg SGD   /   Yangzijiang Chart Updates       Go to Message
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Seems like you did not follow Yang Zi Jiang news, as property is just one of the sideline for Yang Zi Jiang to develop.

The Ship building will still remain their main industries which will comprise of 60% of their business structure. The sideline will ensure Yang Zi Jiang to survive during cold winter like last year and this year. and prosperus when the ship building demand return.

 

 

WallStreet3      ( Date: 17-Jan-2013 11:47) Posted:



be cautious on YZJ 。

1. not much new orders to date

2. if they develop their shipyard into condos, how are they going to arrange their more than 800+ shipyard related workers   ? before you vest more, study the workers laws in China. all their shipyard workers can even continue to receive minimal monthly wages even after retrenchment paid for by YZJ ? for many many years. 

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17-Jan-2013 07:31 YZJ Shipbldg SGD   /   Yangzijiang Chart Updates       Go to Message
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To me more likely will be 3, as BB will not be so fast to formulate the strategy and will not know the warrant issue, as start from the day before the Yangzijiang already show sudden force down. yesterday after morning news release another round of forcing down. Most Singaporean are so afraid of china company issuing warrant, beside that there are not much news on shipping will be the main focus for China in coming years, thus this would be a good  way for citi to get hold of this shares. So that they can easily achieved their $2 or may be $3 target, and have the warrant turns in multiper times of benefit, I don't think their pushing target is only $1.5 or $1.6, that is equivalent to doing business without earning.

GorgeousOng      ( Date: 17-Jan-2013 06:40) Posted:

Thank for your sharing! 2 or 3 is more likely. Yesterday I vested some just to test the round.

cheongsl      ( Date: 17-Jan-2013 05:54) Posted:



There are few possibility scenario to yesterday event.

1) Yangzijiang is in bad shape, BB and insider know about this and short the share hope to gain from the counter when this news come to light.

2) BB get interested with the new warrant issue and wish to participate in the game, so they short at lower price to cause peopele to fear out so that they can get hold of the shares easily and gain control of the counter.

3) Citigroup is the one that short the counter, they are trying to force out the weaker holders, so that they can push up the shareprice easily to above the exercise price so that they can easily sell all their warrant at a much higher price.  As lets say Yangzijiang reach $2, and if the warrant are selling at $0.50, to the purchaser they are anticipate the price will further go up, but to citigroup, a 0.50 sell is much higher then the share gain. which is 0.5/0.065 which is 7.7 times the original warrant price.
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17-Jan-2013 05:54 YZJ Shipbldg SGD   /   Yangzijiang Chart Updates       Go to Message
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There are few possibility scenario to yesterday event.

1) Yangzijiang is in bad shape, BB and insider know about this and short the share hope to gain from the counter when this news come to light.

2) BB get interested with the new warrant issue and wish to participate in the game, so they short at lower price to cause peopele to fear out so that they can get hold of the shares easily and gain control of the counter.

3) Citigroup is the one that short the counter, they are trying to force out the weaker holders, so that they can push up the shareprice easily to above the exercise price so that they can easily sell all their warrant at a much higher price.  As lets say Yangzijiang reach $2, and if the warrant are selling at $0.50, to the purchaser they are anticipate the price will further go up, but to citigroup, a 0.50 sell is much higher then the share gain. which is 0.5/0.065 which is 7.7 times the original warrant price.
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17-Jan-2013 05:20 YZJ Shipbldg SGD   /   Yangzijiang Chart Updates       Go to Message
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x 0 		CNY coming RMB exchange rate should be going up, as most chinese when oversea to work, if they are return to China, then they need to change back to RMB thus the currency should be going up due to the demand.

terencee      ( Date: 16-Jan-2013 22:20) Posted:

Perhaps CNY coming and xchange rate going down ? 

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16-Jan-2013 20:54 YZJ Shipbldg SGD   /   Yangzijiang Chart Updates       Go to Message
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I believe no company will consider money too much, especially when the nation have annouce on the intension to push for sea economic development. The warrant money from citi group will definitely provide a good based for Yangzijiang to have a more rapid expansion to capture more market at this time. The ship building industries is require good money base to expand, as usually at the design, fabrication, installation, it is difficult to get the payment, until you have delivered the ship, which is usually one to two years down the road. Thus to cater for such expansion and issuing warrant at higher share price will allow the company to competed with other shipbuilder when the times come. After the China sea authority annoucement, the China ship building shares gather most attantion and their share really shine.

But for me, my belief is that the China main intension is not to push for sea economic development, but to improve the shipbuilding capability, which further intension is to strengthen their navy capability for the south china sea island and also diaoyu dao.

cheongsl      ( Date: 11-Jan-2013 21:40) Posted:

1月 10日 ， 全 国 海 洋 工 作 会 议 在 北 京 召 开 ， 国 家 海 洋 局 提 出 大 力 推 动 海 洋 经 济 发 展 ， 包 括 六 方 面 内 容 ： 一 是 加 强 海 洋 经 济 规 划 指 导 ； 二 是 提 升 海 洋 经 济 监 测 能 力 ； 三 是 拓 展 海 洋 经 济 服 务 领 域 ； 四 是 保 障 重 点 领 域 用 海 用 岛 需 求 ； 五 是 促 进 科 技 兴 海 全 面 发 展 ； 六 是 深 化 海 洋 专 题 预 报 服 务 。
Yesterday, there was a  sea conference held in Beijing, China Sea authority will push for the sea economic development. Thus many of the company that is related have move up quite alot, this include ship building, logistic and frieght company. As today STI show weakness in strength, thus many people that have benefit from recent raise have fear out. That is why you see the shape drop after it raise quite alot today. With the push for sea economic by the authority, it would be expected that Yang Zi Jiang should be able to perform pretty well for the next few years. It would be expect that STI remain weak for sometime before the raise again thus Yang should be able to attend higher high soon.
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16-Jan-2013 20:37 YZJ Shipbldg SGD   /   Yangzijiang Chart Updates       Go to Message
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Too bad china ship building stock continue to outperform singapore list china shipbuilding company.



cheongsl      ( Date: 14-Jan-2013 21:25) Posted:



 

Today China all ship building stock continue friday strength all continue to grow, seems like Singapore listed china ship building company stock price performance is much lesser then the China listed. Yangzijiang only rise by 2.2% while cosco only 1.5%

名 称 最 新 价 涨 跌 额 涨 跌 幅 买 入 卖 出 昨 收 今 开 最 高 最 低 成 交 量 /手 成 交 额 /万
sz300123 太 阳 鸟 　 14.76 0.66 4.68% 14.75 14.76 14.1 14.2 14.88 13.88 48,269 7,010.25
sz300008 上 海 佳 豪 　 7.15 0.44 6.56% 7.14 7.15 6.71 6.65 7.31 6.58 89,230 6,253.57
sz002608 舜 天 船 舶 　 19.75 1.8 10.03% 19.75 0 17.95 17.95 19.75 17.66 102,386 19,899.61
sh601989 中 国 重 工 　 4.99 0.27 5.72% 4.98 4.99 4.72 4.74 5 4.67 1,305,174 63,885.57
sh601890 亚 星 锚 链 　 8.28 0.53 6.84% 8.28 8.29 7.75 7.68 8.4 7.5 250,949 20,362.13
sh600685 广 船 国 际 　 13.09 0.77 6.25% 13.07 13.1 12.32 12.23 13.3 12.15 182,923 23,423.13
sh600150 中 国 船 舶 　 24.68 1.36 5.83% 24.68 24.69 23.32 22.86 25 22.58 358,728 86,284.97
sh600072 中 船 股 份 　 15.28 0.99 6.93% 15.29 15.3 14.29 14.29 15.51 14.01 226,585 33,932.95

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16-Jan-2013 20:32 YZJ Shipbldg SGD   /   Yangzijiang Chart Updates       Go to Message
x 0
x 0 		Today China shipbuilding industries continue to outperform singapore list china ship builidng company. Too bad can't buy A-share. 代 码 名 称 最 新 价 涨 跌 额 涨 跌 幅 买 入 卖 出 昨 收 今 开 最 高 最 低 成 交 量 /手 成 交 额 /万 sz300123 太 阳 鸟 　 15.41 0.62 4.19% 15.41 15.42 14.79 15.25 15.65 14.75 68,564 10,411.88 sz300008 上 海 佳 豪 　 7.65 0.47 6.55% 7.64 7.65 7.18 7.14 7.73 6.88 98,385 7,185.97 sz002608 舜 天 船 舶 　 21.78 1.56 7.72% 21.77 21.78 20.22 20 21.99 19.67 119,959 24,763.84 sh601989 中 国 重 工 　 5.24 0.29 5.86% 5.24 5.25 4.95 4.94 5.25 4.9 1,219,072 61,656.75 sh601890 亚 星 锚 链 　 8.95 0.61 7.31% 8.93 8.94 8.34 8.39 8.98 8.18 277,248 23,808.08 sh600685 广 船 国 际 　 14.37 1.31 10.03% 14.37 0 13.06 13.05 14.37 12.83 228,150 31,088.54 sh600150 中 国 船 舶 　 25.63 1.58 6.57% 25.62 25.65 24.05 24.06 25.95 23.28 447,685 109,086.64 sh600072 中 船 股 份 　 16.51 1.5 9.99% 16.5 16.51 15.01 14.9 16.51 14.74 382,181 59,613.07
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16-Jan-2013 19:34 YZJ Shipbldg SGD   /   Yangzijiang Chart Updates       Go to Message
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x 0 		Rights issue the share price is adjusted down as the price for rights is lower, but currently the warrant have increase the company capital and the exercise price is much higher then current price, if really market are adjusting for the warrant issue it should go towards the exercise price and not down.

moneycow      ( Date: 16-Jan-2013 14:20) Posted:

Thought its price adjustment. Just like when rights is issued. Its normal.
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16-Jan-2013 12:29 YZJ Shipbldg SGD   /   Yangzijiang Chart Updates       Go to Message
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get in somemore today.

 
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16-Jan-2013 12:21 YZJ Shipbldg SGD   /   Yangzijiang Chart Updates       Go to Message
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x 0 		Volume is extremely large this morning, seems like this counter have attrached BB to enter by forcing down the price to collect.
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15-Jan-2013 18:15 YZJ Shipbldg SGD   /   Yangzijiang Chart Updates       Go to Message
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Get in somemore today in the afternoon.
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15-Jan-2013 12:41 YZJ Shipbldg SGD   /   Yangzijiang Chart Updates       Go to Message
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x 0 		hopefully today can force out most weak holder.
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