ShareJunction - Member Posts

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No matter what is going to happen in next 6 month time. in short term, the volume is so low and not going to make any big move.

6 month later, we can see something happen soon.

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24, 30, 32... Slowly climbing up. Once time is ripe, up non-stop.

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Cheh, who want other believe me.

TuaPekGong9413 ( Date: 26-May-2014 08:45) Posted:

Dream on......early bird......nobody believes what u say......stop your nonsense.......

earlybird14 ( Date: 23-May-2014 11:01) Posted:

Patient, patient....

Indonesia economic will be robust. Phillippines and Vietnam will be punished by China. The rest of the South East Asia will be benefit from there, especially Indonesia.

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Look back what you posted last 2 years, nothing come truth

Now your only stand point is Temasek Backing.

sgng123 ( Date: 23-May-2014 14:59) Posted:

don worry too much, temasek would cover ship no matter what happen cos of big brother America. Know what APL stand for " American President Line" meaning it the US national shipping line. They die die would support it like what happen in 2009 Obama used tax money to cover those too big to fail big banks lol. But currently shipping lines are having their tough time transforming from charter based model of business to ships ownership meaning taking on more debt and lower their cost of operating. Endure and u reap ur reward when slot cost saving are being fully realised in 2Q15. Don be bother about shortist comment in forum, they just sour grape no money to hold and just want to talk down ship. they had been talking shit since last year till now but ship still standing nothing happen. Well u know who the shortist lol just take note of their comment u know. Ship is for long term investing not ur short term shorting but actually if u short in past 2 year u made nothing losing most of the time cos of high borrowing cost and brokerage fee. SGX should just eliminate shorting all together and follow what US/European market doing 1 day trading mode trade or pay up, got money then can play stock else go watch ur cartoon lol.Irritating on shortist comment which is just based on their desire to create fear in forum.

lifeisgood ( Date: 23-May-2014 13:31) Posted:

Is it a surprise that the 2 main transport operators SMRT and NOL are helmed by two ex SAF chief of staff ? These two personalities must be most trusted by the government, or else they wont become the SAF chiefs. The smooth running of SMRT is of critical importance to a country like Singapore that is seen as technologically advanced and efficient. And NOL is a flag carrier, just like SIA.

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So it imply, if Temasek want to privatise NOL, they may do similar to slash the price to half and then offer 1 dollar to privatise it.

But, are you preparing to have a heart attack like what happen in Olam and may be eventually to be one of the investor to be flushed out at low price.

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May be Temasek is not happy the indian management who eat money secretly and pay money to Muddy to write report to attack them, somebody is watching on you. At the end, Indian management came and begged for the help from Temasek and allow Temasek to increase their stake in olam and even going to take over the indian management.

Myabaang ( Date: 23-May-2014 11:41) Posted:

Who knows they might be a third party approach Temasek,hahaha

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bleeding???? Nobody know since the price did drop and stay low about a year. Olam case was put into one of their best track record.

http://www.muddywatersresearch.com/track-record/

jj7007 ( Date: 23-May-2014 11:05) Posted:

Muddy Guy? He is bleeding now, maybe margin call already!

He made a big mistake messing with the wrong person. He heng he never mention explicitly mention Temasek and the Father Son and Holy Goh, ah boh they sue him until his pants drop.

earlybird14 ( Date: 23-May-2014 10:36) Posted:

All know NOL made loss for 3 years if any muddy guy come to short, within 1 day, 50% market cap will be gone.

look into the balance sheet, NAV is 2 billion. Among the 8billion of total asset, 6.2billion are property, plant and equipment. The headquarter building was sold, why choose to sell headquarter building? because this is the only asset which can provide asset gain after selling. majority of this 6.2 billion assets are container vessels which are overvalued based on purchased price instead present market value. So long as muddy guy want to do something, they can just question this 6.2 billion assets versus the current market values of the containers, the NAV 2 billion can be simplied written off based on current market value and turn to negative NAV.

If NOL is listed in other market like US, she has been forced to written off the asset value based on current market asset value.

Cash burnt rate and unreasonable high asset value, it is a time bom.

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Patient, patient....

Indonesia economic will be robust. Phillippines and Vietnam will be punished by China. The rest of the South East Asia will be benefit from there, especially Indonesia.

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All know NOL made loss for 3 years if any muddy guy come to short, within 1 day, 50% market cap will be gone.

look into the balance sheet, NAV is 2 billion. Among the 8billion of total asset, 6.2billion are property, plant and equipment. The headquarter building was sold, why choose to sell headquarter building? because this is the only asset which can provide asset gain after selling. majority of this 6.2 billion assets are container vessels which are overvalued based on purchased price instead present market value. So long as muddy guy want to do something, they can just question this 6.2 billion assets versus the current market values of the containers, the NAV 2 billion can be simplied written off based on current market value and turn to negative NAV.

If NOL is listed in other market like US, she has been forced to written off the asset value based on current market asset value.

Cash burnt rate and unreasonable high asset value, it is a time bom.

ascend88 ( Date: 23-May-2014 10:14) Posted:

just need a muddy guy to come and short NOL....

then u see...what our aunty will do :)

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You have been rating NOL will recover and turn profitable for 2 years. Any positive outcome has happen? Nothing, the only thing still continue is balance sheet go worse and worse. NOL need extra fund soon to continue to business. This extra fund is not for expansion.

What will hapeen if NOL ask for money?

sgng123 ( Date: 22-May-2014 20:37) Posted:

it ok he had been ranting in the forum for 2 years saying ship would collapse. ship still here no collapse and the fleet renewal programme reaped it rewards in 2Q13 by lower slot cost by 8% phrase1 still got another 2X slot cost reduction to go in 2Q14 and 2Q15. Don get too excited when ship finally take off and u too late to cover ur short. Peep who doomed ship is either borrow share to short over a predetermined period or lost money before, it is just like peep who support ship are mostly investors and punters. Guess all knows lol. whatever is mentioned in this forum is personnel view, to trade/short/or anything is ur own choice. Do not get influenced by anyone and let all prosper in 2H14.

earlybird14 ( Date: 22-May-2014 17:26) Posted:

May be... Let' s see.

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May be... Let' s see.

lifeisgood ( Date: 22-May-2014 17:02) Posted:

You are being bearish at exactly the wrong time.

earlybird14 ( Date: 22-May-2014 17:01) Posted:

NOL is on the way to set new low. No point to go in. Regarding to your port operation, I don' t see any where mentioned about port operation in financial report.

Port operation is not something that NOL can go any country to rent a land and open a container port. Government permission is required and it is normally a open bidding to the open market and there are a lot strong existing and experience operators like PSA, Hutchison which we are familiar with are fighting on those potential port. What leftover will be those small port which is not effective and efficient to be a international ports.

3 years loss, 1Q2014 still making loss, 70% new vessels were delivered since 2012, container freight rate go flat which is below NOL breakeven margin, China economic slow down, Whatever cost reduction plan all pumped in in past 2 years still making loss, the only left is Temasek effect. Low, it can be low. If you were old enough, you should know Chartered Semi Con which was listed in SGX and owned by Temasek. After numerous dilution and Temasek pumped in money, at the end sold cheaply to Global foundry. The factory is still at Woodlands.

I believe Temasek is headache in how to abandon NOL instead of thinking how to save this company because currently no where to save this company at all.

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I never ever lose single cents in NOL, just disappointed on this company.

I bought NOL before and sold with a little profit after it disappointed me about her cost cutting plan and failed to turn profitable in 2012 which the freight rate were hiked to high level. in fact, nobody is going to lose or earned a lot from NOL since 2011, price was up and down between 1 to 1.4.

All those links is what i did my own research in past but still keep in my folder.

sgng123, again, no point to create over optimistic view on NOL. Fact is fact, the info i posted are all fact. The only clue that you left to support your statement is Temasek backing.

But as I said, NOL is running out of time, it got heavy debt, its notes to borrow money to fund the vessels are going to expire in next 2 years, she has problem in cash burnt, especially go wildly in last quarter, no sign of freight rate recovery and worse is new vessels are flowing to the market continually, top 3 are able to make huge profit from current freight rate and not so keen to hike rate (2013 freight rate chart clearly show it almost flat and stable). There are many many many negative news on NOL, but only 1 stand point from Temasek.

Even Temasek is willing to back NOL, it doesn' t mean that NOL share price will not drop. Olam gonna attacked by foreign broker, Temasek back it but price still drop, no matter how, olam is still profit making. what NOL has? full of debts, ugly balance sheet, burst soon.

sgng123 ( Date: 22-May-2014 16:50) Posted:

As i pointed in earlier post earlybird lost too much money in this counter, he doing his venting lol. Trade with what u can lose don overstretch urself like earlybird now he venting again lol. Currently global economy picture still murky, temasek would not strike yet it would wait for the right moment, so just be patient and hang on with whatever u got. Those want to go in wait a bit till BB get in, might miss a bit on the gain but safer. This ship need Ah moh money to push higher, local only do their misery shorting and covering back when their ball got burnt so don bet on any trade yet wait for volume to surge.

jj7007 ( Date: 22-May-2014 16:30) Posted:

earlybird14. I' m really curious why u hate this counter so much? Are u a sacked employee? haha

Okay, we all get the message that you dont like it. So why dont u do yourself a favour and ignore this counter and thread, it will do ur health alot of good.

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NOL is on the way to set new low. No point to go in. Regarding to your port operation, I don' t see any where mentioned about port operation in financial report.

Port operation is not something that NOL can go any country to rent a land and open a container port. Government permission is required and it is normally a open bidding to the open market and there are a lot strong existing and experience operators like PSA, Hutchison which we are familiar with are fighting on those potential port. What leftover will be those small port which is not effective and efficient to be a international ports.

3 years loss, 1Q2014 still making loss, 70% new vessels were delivered since 2012, container freight rate go flat which is below NOL breakeven margin, China economic slow down, Whatever cost reduction plan all pumped in in past 2 years still making loss, the only left is Temasek effect. Low, it can be low. If you were old enough, you should know Chartered Semi Con which was listed in SGX and owned by Temasek. After numerous dilution and Temasek pumped in money, at the end sold cheaply to Global foundry. The factory is still at Woodlands.

I believe Temasek is headache in how to abandon NOL instead of thinking how to save this company because currently no where to save this company at all.

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http://www.internationalpsa.com/about/pdf/AR2013/Group%20Financial%20Highlights.pdf

Fantastic good margin from PSA

earlybird14 ( Date: 22-May-2014 16:30) Posted:

PSA or NOL. If Temasek want to grow port business at Oversea. They will use PSA to expand instead of NOL.

lifeisgood ( Date: 22-May-2014 16:26) Posted:

NOL is moving more into running port operations.

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PSA or NOL. If Temasek want to grow port business at Oversea. They will use PSA to expand instead of NOL.

lifeisgood ( Date: 22-May-2014 16:26) Posted:

NOL is moving more into running port operations.

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Look at the future order book. Once those new vessels are delivered. APL will be drop out from TOP 10. This reflect that Temasek may not has ambitious in this industry anymore.

lifeisgood ( Date: 22-May-2014 16:26) Posted:

NOL is moving more into running port operations.

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http://www.alphaliner.com/top100/

http://www1.chineseshipping.com.cn/en/indices/scfi.jsp

See the new order book and the freight rate chart trend. This is so hopeless in the container shipping industry!!!

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Temasek has no reason to do so. They have the right to assign a General as MD which mean NOL are under their fully controlled.

They shall wait till time mature to buy and consolidate those loss making container line companies like evergreen, Yangming & MOL and form another giant container shipping line company like what they do for Sembcorp Marine to reduce unnecessary competition.

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Further information, Farrell Lines is one of the subsidiary from Maersk. Maersk is the major winner of US military contract. APL gone, anybody can filll the gap. If APL is linked to political issue, as first, she won' t be sold to NOL.

earlybird14 ( Date: 22-May-2014 15:09) Posted:

http://www.unitexlogistics.com/enview.asp?id=1856

Link about US military contract, As I said, not a big deal, both gonna fined for overcharge. In this case, what type of margin will it be? of course, compete with Maersk, APL margin definitely is lower. Financial report tell everything.

DENMARK' s Maersk Line and Singapore' s APL have won major Pentagon contracts for the shipping of American military cargo with Maersk signing a US$2.1 billion deal and APL winning one worth $1.7 billion.

Virginia' s Farrell Lines also signed a $565 million contract while New Jersey' s American Roll-On, Roll-Off Carrier took one worth $553 million. Hapag-Lloyd USA signed $338 million deal and New York' s Liberty Global Logistics won a $362 million contract.

All seems forgiven after allegations that Maersk Line and AP were over-billing the US military after fines were paid, $31.9 million by Maersk and $26.3 million by APL, which is the container shipping arm of Neptune Orient Lines of Singapore.

earlybird14 ( Date: 22-May-2014 13:52) Posted:

After spending months to promote your favourite stock, till now hopeless in freight rate recovery, effect of cost cutting, contribution of new vessels delivery and etcs, you eventually link this to political issue. Is it so related???

The military contract were awarded to Maersk and APL. Maersk was having bigger value contract. This was an open bidding contract, who know what is the margin of the contract, especially we can' t see any improvement in NOL margin after signing the contract.

NOL shall be thankful to all guys those holding their share and thinking Temasek will back NOL all the way. This is the only reason to support NOL @ 1 dollar after 3 years continually loss (4th year is coming). Top 3 container lines are earning money, market consolidation is required, just to see which company will run out of bullets first.

Again, don' t look down on the cash burnt rate 375million, burnt off in past 3 month times.

According to the 2011 to 2013 cash report, 1.4billion, 1 & 1.3billion cash are used for property, plant and equipment payment. Total of 24 vessels are delivered in 2012 and 2013, there are still 10 vessels will be delivered in 2014. The final payment during vessel delivery and settlement are the most. Let' s see how this 600million cash can do for the payment of the vessel. Hopefully, we won' t hear any default payment. Otherwise, it will be an earthquake to NOL and may be Temasek rescue plan may come in. BUT WHAT WILL BE THE VALUE OF THE SHARE PRICE AT THAT TIME???

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http://www.unitexlogistics.com/enview.asp?id=1856

Link about US military contract, As I said, not a big deal, both gonna fined for overcharge. In this case, what type of margin will it be? of course, compete with Maersk, APL margin definitely is lower. Financial report tell everything.

DENMARK' s Maersk Line and Singapore' s APL have won major Pentagon contracts for the shipping of American military cargo with Maersk signing a US$2.1 billion deal and APL winning one worth $1.7 billion.

Virginia' s Farrell Lines also signed a $565 million contract while New Jersey' s American Roll-On, Roll-Off Carrier took one worth $553 million. Hapag-Lloyd USA signed $338 million deal and New York' s Liberty Global Logistics won a $362 million contract.

All seems forgiven after allegations that Maersk Line and AP were over-billing the US military after fines were paid, $31.9 million by Maersk and $26.3 million by APL, which is the container shipping arm of Neptune Orient Lines of Singapore.

earlybird14 ( Date: 22-May-2014 13:52) Posted:

After spending months to promote your favourite stock, till now hopeless in freight rate recovery, effect of cost cutting, contribution of new vessels delivery and etcs, you eventually link this to political issue. Is it so related???

The military contract were awarded to Maersk and APL. Maersk was having bigger value contract. This was an open bidding contract, who know what is the margin of the contract, especially we can' t see any improvement in NOL margin after signing the contract.

NOL shall be thankful to all guys those holding their share and thinking Temasek will back NOL all the way. This is the only reason to support NOL @ 1 dollar after 3 years continually loss (4th year is coming). Top 3 container lines are earning money, market consolidation is required, just to see which company will run out of bullets first.

Again, don' t look down on the cash burnt rate 375million, burnt off in past 3 month times.

According to the 2011 to 2013 cash report, 1.4billion, 1 & 1.3billion cash are used for property, plant and equipment payment. Total of 24 vessels are delivered in 2012 and 2013, there are still 10 vessels will be delivered in 2014. The final payment during vessel delivery and settlement are the most. Let' s see how this 600million cash can do for the payment of the vessel. Hopefully, we won' t hear any default payment. Otherwise, it will be an earthquake to NOL and may be Temasek rescue plan may come in. BUT WHAT WILL BE THE VALUE OF THE SHARE PRICE AT THAT TIME???

sgng123 ( Date: 22-May-2014 13:27) Posted:

Look like all not really understand the truth value of NOL, this company is like a miilitary institution. Do u shut down SAF cos it burn money every year without proper account of the expense it occurs ?. NOL is a tie up between singapore and american business interest in trade. Having a independent carrier line to transport export is critical for both countries as they don want to be controlled by the top 3 lines which can easily raise rate as and when they feel like it. IT is more like both governments are supporting their countries exporter to a certain extent by offering below market rate so they can survive in bad time. Plus APL got ties to the US miltary where billions dollars of cargo contract are given to APL, need security clearance to be able to deliver US miltary cargo so not everyone can do it. Now time bad and everyone just got scared and shaken badly, it is similar when time are good everyone become uber bullish and keep pushing share to record high until the party ended. For ship it is no limited to the upside, it can go higher higher and higher no cap but when it go down government would step in and fix a floor due to the importance of it being trade related. IT simple endure long enough u made big buck, cannot endure u lose big time. So which type of investors are u ?