ShareJunction - Member Posts

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P3 network formed in 2013. So basically, p3 network rejection will not has any directly benefit to G6. It just maintain present situation without worsening the market. P3 still making profit, G6 still struggling, NOL still making the loss.

The rejection from china rescue NOL book not to be worsen further only.

earlybird14 ( Date: 20-Jun-2014 06:03) Posted:

http://www.worldcargonews.com/htm/w20111220.286200.htm

G6 formed in 2011, not recently.

http://shippingwatch.com/carriers/Container/article6418668.ece

G6 is very fragile compared to P3.

Lucky03 ( Date: 19-Jun-2014 23:00) Posted:

earlybird14, are you in the shipping industry. You seem very knowledgable about how the P3 and G6 operates and P3 is much more organised ? Why are you so sure that NOL will never have a chance to turn profitable even after the G6 alliance ? Insider intelligence

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http://www.worldcargonews.com/htm/w20111220.286200.htm

G6 formed in 2011, not recently.

http://shippingwatch.com/carriers/Container/article6418668.ece

G6 is very fragile compared to P3.

Lucky03 ( Date: 19-Jun-2014 23:00) Posted:

earlybird14, are you in the shipping industry. You seem very knowledgable about how the P3 and G6 operates and P3 is much more organised ? Why are you so sure that NOL will never have a chance to turn profitable even after the G6 alliance ? Insider intelligence ?

earlybird14 ( Date: 19-Jun-2014 17:32) Posted:

If P3 plan passed through, NOL price will badly beaten. Now, no passing through, doesn' t mean NOL can benefit anything from it. P3 are more organised and efficient, eventhough, it was rejected by China Authority, Top 3 are still running ahead G6. Maesrk are still able to make billion dollar profit based on present freigh rate, NOL or other G6 member are still making loss, The coorperation within P3 will not be gone after China rejection, they still can do work together and be more efficient in Europe and US.

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3 mouths with same thinkings (all from europe) are faster in making decision compared to 6 mouths with different interests, cultures and thinkings. what G6 really has done? or just to form for the sack of forming?

earlybird14 ( Date: 19-Jun-2014 17:32) Posted:

If P3 plan passed through, NOL price will badly beaten. Now, no passing through, doesn' t mean NOL can benefit anything from it. P3 are more organised and efficient, eventhough, it was rejected by China Authority, Top 3 are still running ahead G6. Maesrk are still able to make billion dollar profit based on present freigh rate, NOL or other G6 member are still making loss, The coorperation within P3 will not be gone after China rejection, they still can do work together and be more efficient in Europe and US.

sgng123 ( Date: 19-Jun-2014 17:25) Posted:

Ship got shorted again in response to the collapse of maersk line share price, more of a rippling effectfrom the collapse of P3. Typical trading trend sell on uncertainty then buy back on certainty. Now those big three carriers in troubled water, their 18K+ ships coming online soon. Impossible to maintain both high load factor and quality of service as trade imbalance between east and west would make it hard to fill those ships unless in mega alliance when u could count on ur member cargo to make up the difference while minimise time on port transit. Capacity reduction ison the card now inorder to maintain profit and service quality. G6 gain the most in P3 downing, become the industry leader in term of market share in transpacific and asia. got to wait for calm to return to market before touching ship. Uncertainty hurt a lot even when time are good, sideline best option.

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If P3 plan passed through, NOL price will badly beaten. Now, no passing through, doesn' t mean NOL can benefit anything from it. P3 are more organised and efficient, eventhough, it was rejected by China Authority, Top 3 are still running ahead G6. Maesrk are still able to make billion dollar profit based on present freigh rate, NOL or other G6 member are still making loss, The coorperation within P3 will not be gone after China rejection, they still can do work together and be more efficient in Europe and US.

sgng123 ( Date: 19-Jun-2014 17:25) Posted:

Ship got shorted again in response to the collapse of maersk line share price, more of a rippling effectfrom the collapse of P3. Typical trading trend sell on uncertainty then buy back on certainty. Now those big three carriers in troubled water, their 18K+ ships coming online soon. Impossible to maintain both high load factor and quality of service as trade imbalance between east and west would make it hard to fill those ships unless in mega alliance when u could count on ur member cargo to make up the difference while minimise time on port transit. Capacity reduction ison the card now inorder to maintain profit and service quality. G6 gain the most in P3 downing, become the industry leader in term of market share in transpacific and asia. got to wait for calm to return to market before touching ship. Uncertainty hurt a lot even when time are good, sideline best option.

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Volume getting higher but price soften, may see new low soon 94cents will be broken soon. NOL is not in good shape and absolutely overvalued based on overestimated NAV(container vessels are cheap, very cheap in the market now) and 3 year continual heavy loss.

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Another 2183 lots are shorted from 11 to 18 June.

earlybird14 ( Date: 11-Jun-2014 11:45) Posted:

Since years ago, I heard NOL internally was very politic and messy. APL management is in US, basically very hard to controlled.

So, don' t push too much hope in NOL.

The daily short sell volume are something cannot be neglected.

Past10 trading day short sell volumes are as follow (daily volume vs daily shortsell volume, %):

1) 10 June - 1369 vs 245 lots, 18%

2) 1310 vs 448, 34%

3) 1437 vs 404, 28%

4) 2405 vs 972, 40%

5) 568 vs 217, 38%

6) 3440 vs 1992, 58%

7) 1169 vs 680, 58%

8) 1903 vs 900, 47%

9) 4531 vs 511, 11%

10) 907 vs 371, 41%.

Constant shorting volume have been started since May 2014. Total short volume since begin may is 20468 lots or market value of $20,158,034.

This may continue to last the rest of the months. In my personnel opinion, 2 things may happen soon:

1) Foreign fund managers are targeting on it and shorting it.

2) NOL has engaged bank or broker to short sell the shares now at higher price, it will be covered with new shares to be issued months later which mean NOL will issue rights soon.

This is just my guess based on my trading experience, it may not be right. But for holders, you can just take it as reference.

foucs69 ( Date: 11-Jun-2014 11:15) Posted:

haha dun think they will sell............is family business................heard big bosses is good man n humble..................

have a group of loyal old guards still around........

same have many FT managed the technical team....but main importantly is the finanical side and the business development foresight

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No ideal, I am not good in chart but risk of rupiah depreciation recently is a major risk. Let' s see how. Shorting in Gallant is also high risk.

long term long term...

Leongsan ( Date: 19-Jun-2014 10:21) Posted:

Chart looks breaking 30cents in the near term. Motor investment below entry price, rupiah add more losses.?

earlybird14 ( Date: 17-Jun-2014 14:11) Posted:

Which stage are gallant now? It is half way, those holding 38 will be panic to flush out easily. Therefore, to prevent yourself always in this situation, please be the earlybird. Fund manager or BB can't do anything on earlybird

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Which stage are gallant now? It is half way, those holding 38 will be panic to flush out easily. Therefore, to prevent yourself always in this situation, please be the earlybird. Fund manager or BB can't do anything on earlybird.

earlybird14 ( Date: 17-Jun-2014 14:04) Posted:

For those buy 38

earlybird14 ( Date: 12-Jun-2014 17:32) Posted:

all the best. share is long term. 3 month is too short, will be easily played out by big boys.

impatient to wait=> sell=> share pump up=> regret and chase to buy=> gonna trap=> share pump down=> worry and sell => share pump up again=> worry is a trap again=> wait => share continue to pump up=> regret and chase to buy=> share pump down and down=> completely trap and don' t dare to sell=> share down & down.

Just bear in mind the above process. make it as a long term investment, do own study=> buy low and sell high=> take profit and walk away=> look for next low value stock , ignore if the sold stock go higher=> no low value stock is found=> walk away from the market and enjoy the money=> come back 6 month to 1 year later and look for low value stock.

Discipline, discipline and discipline and to be always to be early bird.

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For those buy 38

earlybird14 ( Date: 12-Jun-2014 17:32) Posted:

all the best. share is long term. 3 month is too short, will be easily played out by big boys.

impatient to wait=> sell=> share pump up=> regret and chase to buy=> gonna trap=> share pump down=> worry and sell => share pump up again=> worry is a trap again=> wait => share continue to pump up=> regret and chase to buy=> share pump down and down=> completely trap and don' t dare to sell=> share down & down.

Just bear in mind the above process. make it as a long term investment, do own study=> buy low and sell high=> take profit and walk away=> look for next low value stock , ignore if the sold stock go higher=> no low value stock is found=> walk away from the market and enjoy the money=> come back 6 month to 1 year later and look for low value stock.

Discipline, discipline and discipline and to be always to be early bird.

JLjoyjoy ( Date: 12-Jun-2014 16:56) Posted:

Thks for sharing, earlybird14!

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Just take this chance to load at low, it may be the last chance to load below 35.

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BRIC? Only India and china have more population than Indonesia. Indonesia society, politic, economic and etc are all in good stable direction. The most value Indonesia related company listed in sgx is gallant venture.

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Speculating, always works. Let's see how high can gallant go, today gallant is not past gallant. It owns no 2 car sellers in one of the fastest growing country which is 4th highest population country in the world.

lucky168 ( Date: 13-Jun-2014 20:15) Posted:

many analysts have been crowing about how huge land development Gallant has, compared to Spore since many many years ago

just unfortunate that it is still a piece of wasted land till today

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What else can you say? Other than temasek and US politic issue?

APL win the award no nol. Because US has no other world container shipping company, only can give APL. APL will still be there even NOL announced bankrupt, APL is a US company, it will be protected under US bankruptcy law.

Temasek, US political issue, unreasonable expectation of world economic boom(not recovery, recovery can't save NOL). What else? If nothing else, you are holding a big risk, because there are either not going to happen or reason for stock rally.

sgng123 ( Date: 16-Jun-2014 00:59) Posted:

winning award is more political than business, just to show those democrat that apl is behind obama environment push.

NOL is part political and part business group where they put retired/newly scholars there to skill up on their management skill, explain lose so much money all these years but did not go up in smoke. Government dumping money into this ship to provide training for future singapore leaders, same go for SIA, Singtel etc. Those temasek linked companies are all training centres for our future leaders ... sign. Lot of CPF money go up in smoke and government cover it up. Just don know how much money they used to cover Olam massive dark hole, it a very big hole so big that temasek had to privatise it to save the training centre lol. Maybe after NOl had finished it fleet renewal programme, next step is to privatise it and it is very very easy to do that since they controlled like 67% just need another 23% from banks/trading house then they can do forced acquistion upon getting 90% approval. But don worry too much , the offer price would not be too cheap skate due to the unrealized treasure of the terminal / logistic plus the market share it commanded in the united state and asia. the privatisation would be already in the work who know, just need to win over the banks/trading house with a attractive offer then it done deal waiting to be announced.

Lucky03 ( Date: 14-Jun-2014 17:27) Posted:

If only winning such awards can help NOL to turn profitable !

News
APL wins inaugural US Coast Guard security award

Washington DC: Singapore?s APL, the containerline of the NOL Group, has won the 2013-2014 Rear Admiral Richard E. Bennis Award for Excellence in Maritime Security, conferred by the United States Coast Guard (USCG).
APL was recognised as ?Company of the Year? for its strong commitment to US security as well as the marine transportation system, particularly its outstanding contributions towards the implementation of the US Maritime Transportation Security Act (MTSA) requirements.
?APL is honoured to receive the Bennis Award as it is a perfect complement to the Osprey Award, the USCG?s highest environmental accolade which we received in 2012,? said APL president Kenneth Glenn. ?With these back-to-back award wins from the USCG, APL demonstrates an unequivocal dedication to securing international maritime trade and protecting the marine environment. We endeavour to fulfill this same commitment in every operating location across the globe.?
The newly-created, bi-annual Bennis Award aims to encourage organisations to develop a comprehensive culture of security by assessing their overall security programs, seeking creative solutions to address known risks, building a system of continuous improvement, and sharing best practices that will benefit similar organisations. [13/06/14]

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very positive. but P3 have started profitable. What is the chance for others to survive?

Lucky03 ( Date: 13-Jun-2014 00:47) Posted:

WORLD SHIPPING

CSAV expects Hapag-Lloyd merger to save costs by ending duplications

CHILE's Compania Sud Americana de Vapores (CSAV) says merger with Hapag-Lloyd will save it US$300 million a year because most cost reductions will come from ending service duplications and repositioning empties.

Thursday, 12.Jun.2014, 04:49 (GMT)
CSAV expects Hapag-Lloyd merger to save costs by ending duplications
CHILE's Compania Sud Americana de Vapores (CSAV) says merger with Hapag-Lloyd will save it US$300 million a year because most cost reductions will come from ending service duplications and repositioning empties.
"The networks overlap in the Caribbean. That will create the possibility to save money where we had to transport empty containers to where the cargo originated," said CSAV chief financial officer Nicolas Burr.

"This means the empty container repositioning bill will be dramatically reduced at the end of the year," he said, according to Lloyd's List.

Other savings relate to the procurement of port, terminal and intermodal operations and through using a single agency network and one headquarters.

"We have some better contracts in Latin America, and Hapag-Lloyd can basically take advantage of that and they have better contracts in Europe and some are better in Asia and we will take advantage of that," he said.

Mr Burr said CSAV expected to sign a binding agreement with Hapag-Lloyd within the next 40 days, and had set a target date of March 27, pending shareholder approval.

He mentioned other benefits the merger would bring to CSAV, highlighting Hapag Lloyd's IT systems, and said he did not expect the expansion of the G6 Alliance, of which the German carrier is a member, to impact the north-south trades where it concentrates.

Mr Burr said for the rest of the year, markets are expected to be volatile, although supply and demand is expected to rise by five per cent, and oversupply will remain in the market unless there is growth in the idle fleet.

However, he said the creation of the P3 Network, the expansion of the G6 and CKYH Alliances, the co-operation agreement signed by China Shipping and Cosco and the potential merger of Hapag-Lloyd and CSAV were positive signals that "put enormous pressure on other players" to find other ways to consolidate.

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Only Maersk can take the lead to hike the rate like what Maersk did in 2012. Without P3 support, Hapag will only lose customers.

Lucky03 ( Date: 13-Jun-2014 00:42) Posted:

WORLD SHIPPING

Hapag hikes Asia Europe rate US$1,000 July 9, Cosco boosts rate July 1

GERMANY's Hapag-Lloyd said it will increase rates from the Far East to North Europe and the Mediterranean by $1,000 per TEU on July 9.
Wednesday, 11.Jun.2014, 19:07 (GMT)
Hapag hikes Asia Europe rate US$1,000 July 9, Cosco boosts rate July 1
GERMANY's Hapag-Lloyd said it will increase rates from the Far East to North Europe and the Mediterranean by $1,000 per TEU on July 9.

China's Cosco has announced a general rate increase for dry and reefer cargo moving from the Far East and Indian subcontinent to all US and Canadian destinations from July 1.

The increases are $240 per TEU, $300 per FEU, $338 for 40-foot high-cube, and $380 for 45-footers to the west coast of North America.

For intermodal cargo via west coast port destined beyond California, Oregon and Washington and all-water boxes bound for US east and Gulf ports, rates will rise $300 per TEU, $400 per FEU, $450 per 40-foot high-cube and $506 for 45-footers.

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54 page report from DMG but seem like the link is not working. very comprehensive and valued gallant very high.

I personnelly dislike DMG, stock under their coverage will become complicated and never go straight line uptrend. Just prepare the roller coaster type of trading in coming months.

earlybird14 ( Date: 13-Jun-2014 15:50) Posted:

https://8bf1087e-a-62cb3a1a-s-sites.googlegroups.com/site/researchreporta8/DMG_GallantVenture09062014.pdf?attachauth=ANoY7crsTv-IJkKgQfkJTYkYm9cHFGru4gSudKgIcCyZTQPmOH9drUXZIlnvHWhA9JwtJHTTNRIQWoxqzs0hrJIIvf98fLlnpnToY2u9fmtppmw3x_9wXhS1To5Ha-o5sOjMChMCcahUJtqXaKfy8tFBqhEUeL4P0wpETeahUE5AkWJ6cNzIYNkCXo-OhhJthBZyUparmVmHaZUzlZV_w9cxFxLwUWJEwv2wTviL6Px-Wry-Ag2Pcis%3D& attredirects=0

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https://8bf1087e-a-62cb3a1a-s-sites.googlegroups.com/site/researchreporta8/DMG_GallantVenture09062014.pdf?attachauth=ANoY7crsTv-IJkKgQfkJTYkYm9cHFGru4gSudKgIcCyZTQPmOH9drUXZIlnvHWhA9JwtJHTTNRIQWoxqzs0hrJIIvf98fLlnpnToY2u9fmtppmw3x_9wXhS1To5Ha-o5sOjMChMCcahUJtqXaKfy8tFBqhEUeL4P0wpETeahUE5AkWJ6cNzIYNkCXo-OhhJthBZyUparmVmHaZUzlZV_w9cxFxLwUWJEwv2wTviL6Px-Wry-Ag2Pcis%3D& attredirects=0

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Up to now, volume 11204lots, 1700lots really mean nothing. It may close at unchanged today.

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Yes. Therefore I bought gallant without their coverage. However you can trust their first coverage. After that, be careful for 2nd and 3rd. 50+ cents is realistic based on present revenue, nav and break even book.

TuaPekGong9413 ( Date: 13-Jun-2014 11:50) Posted:

Me nvr trust those paid analysts.....they only report on late news where stock has already surged and their target price are always too optimistic.....

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If you want me to speculate, I will always say TP 70.

My TP to sell will be decided after analyse the situation at that time. For time being, I will take DMG TP as realistic TP to sell based on present Gallant financial book.

Just an example, if Gallant report 50 to 100 million profit in coming quarter, will you sell @ 70cents?

TuaPekGong9413 ( Date: 13-Jun-2014 10:47) Posted:

Going one big round, just like to know whats yr target selling price in digits......40cents or ?