ShareJunction - Member Posts

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The gap of P3 and G6 will be widen and widen, not only on the network efficiency but also their financial balance sheet. The billion profit will be paid off the interest and debt loan for the delivered vessel and interest will be reduced further and increase the profit margin of the company. The hundred million loss will be increased with more debt to be loaded for paying the interest and result highest interest to be paid and worsen the lose making margin of the company.

P3 just to be silent about rate hinking for 2 more years, they can at least kill 20% of competitors and share these 20% market share by acquisition from the banks or broker who own the asset of those bankrupt container shipping company.

Let' s wait and see. Shipping lines, no matter container shipping, oil tanker shiping or bulk carrier shipping all are undergo the same process. In fact, Oil tanker and bulkcarrier have been at this stage for 2 years and start to see some recovery. Container shipping, may be because of deep pocket of those companies, this sector come slower but it won' t be too far.

earlybird14 ( Date: 11-Jul-2014 13:29) Posted:

The cost saving from Maersk is not only 12.1% fuel efficiency resulted from their new giant container vessel fleet but also their adjust network efficiency. This is not other container shipping company like NOL who own 2 to 3% market share can achieve.

Those vested in NOL should pray hard to god that China block the P3 network. Otherwise, the date of P3 network implementation is the time NOL share price cutting half.

Anyway, P3 network rejection doesn' t change the game play. Maersk, MSC and CMA CGM are still the market leader and continually leading the market with their network efficiency.

earlybird14 ( Date: 11-Jul-2014 13:25) Posted:

http://www.seatrade-global.com/news/americas/maersk-line-books-$15bn-profit-in-2013-despite-lower-box-rates.html

To me, this is just NOL management nice picture painting about their failure in their job.

Maersk Line made a profit of $1.5bn compared to $461m a year earlier with the improvement credited to vessel network efficiencies resulting in lower units cost and a lower bunker price. This is despite average freight rates decreasing by 7.2% to $2,674 per feu compared to $2,881 per feu in 2012. Bunker consumption was reduced by 12.1%

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The cost saving from Maersk is not only 12.1% fuel efficiency resulted from their new giant container vessel fleet but also their adjust network efficiency. This is not other container shipping company like NOL who own 2 to 3% market share can achieve.

Those vested in NOL should pray hard to god that China block the P3 network. Otherwise, the date of P3 network implementation is the time NOL share price cutting half.

Anyway, P3 network rejection doesn' t change the game play. Maersk, MSC and CMA CGM are still the market leader and continually leading the market with their network efficiency.

earlybird14 ( Date: 11-Jul-2014 13:25) Posted:

http://www.seatrade-global.com/news/americas/maersk-line-books-$15bn-profit-in-2013-despite-lower-box-rates.html

To me, this is just NOL management nice picture painting about their failure in their job.

Maersk Line made a profit of $1.5bn compared to $461m a year earlier with the improvement credited to vessel network efficiencies resulting in lower units cost and a lower bunker price. This is despite average freight rates decreasing by 7.2% to $2,674 per feu compared to $2,881 per feu in 2012. Bunker consumption was reduced by 12.1%

Lucky03 ( Date: 11-Jul-2014 12:57) Posted:

NOL reported for its liner business, for FY13 that it achieved cost savings for per FEU was 8% but a combination of 2% drop in volume plus lower freight rate knock off 8% off its revenue per FEU by 8% too. Undoubtedly, their performance was helped by the profit recognized for the sale of their HQ and the other 2 lines of business which are profitable.

For Q1 FY14, it reported reduction of 6% for cost per FEU while the revenue per FEU was 6% lower due to lower freight rate but net impact was 5% partly due to 2% higher volume.

The question is whether the cost reduction going forward will exceed any further drop in freight rate and if volume will decrease too.

I can't recall where I found it but I believe the market expect probably another 5% or so drop in freight rate this year. The question therefore is whether the cost saving will exceed 5% and if volume will be higher. Given the better economic numbers and volume handled by ports, we should see increase in volume esp after the rebound from the severe winter season. Hopefully returning the more expensive charted ships and deploying the additional 10 new and more fuel efficient ships this FY will yield higher than 5% or even 8% cost savings.

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http://www.seatrade-global.com/news/americas/maersk-line-books-$15bn-profit-in-2013-despite-lower-box-rates.html

To me, this is just NOL management nice picture painting about their failure in their job.

Maersk Line made a profit of $1.5bn compared to $461m a year earlier with the improvement credited to vessel network efficiencies resulting in lower units cost and a lower bunker price. This is despite average freight rates decreasing by 7.2% to $2,674 per feu compared to $2,881 per feu in 2012. Bunker consumption was reduced by 12.1%

Lucky03 ( Date: 11-Jul-2014 12:57) Posted:

NOL reported for its liner business, for FY13 that it achieved cost savings for per FEU was 8% but a combination of 2% drop in volume plus lower freight rate knock off 8% off its revenue per FEU by 8% too. Undoubtedly, their performance was helped by the profit recognized for the sale of their HQ and the other 2 lines of business which are profitable.

For Q1 FY14, it reported reduction of 6% for cost per FEU while the revenue per FEU was 6% lower due to lower freight rate but net impact was 5% partly due to 2% higher volume.

The question is whether the cost reduction going forward will exceed any further drop in freight rate and if volume will decrease too.

I can't recall where I found it but I believe the market expect probably another 5% or so drop in freight rate this year. The question therefore is whether the cost saving will exceed 5% and if volume will be higher. Given the better economic numbers and volume handled by ports, we should see increase in volume esp after the rebound from the severe winter season. Hopefully returning the more expensive charted ships and deploying the additional 10 new and more fuel efficient ships this FY will yield higher than 5% or even 8% cost savings.

pineapple123 ( Date: 11-Jul-2014 11:30) Posted:

Past few results have always seen more than expected loss..

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Your philosophy is absolutely right. Share market is traded as per market emotion rather than what really happen on the company. All the best to you, buy at 94 or 93.5 is bettter than those buy 97 or 98 2 weeks ago.

Just in my opinion, NOL will trade lower this time if they still fail to breakeven in coming quarter result, they are running short of cash soon.

counter ( Date: 11-Jul-2014 10:39) Posted:

" nobody can accurately predict the bottom. If the price right, just enter. drop, rest a bit, and look for next low to average down." (earlybird14)

I really like your above investment philosophy. I have been using the same philosophy and I have manged to deepen my pocket quite a fair bit with this philosophy.

earlybird14 ( Date: 11-Jul-2014 10:32) Posted:

Seem like quite a few players here got deep pocket. 1 transaction with few hundred lots?

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Seem like quite a few players here got deep pocket. 1 transaction with few hundred lots?

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In order to survive, companies like PIL who doesn' t own the new giant container vessel above 10000TEU will be forced to order and worsen the container shipping market. Where is the light? The only solution is hiking the rate, however, how they are going to hike the rate when Maersk, MSC and CMA are making huge profit at current rate. 3 of them want to kick competitors out from the industry. Although P3 network is fail, they will not sit there and do nothing.

This is reason why shortist are so confident to short NOL at this level. Fear will be created in the world wide listed container shipping companies and all will be shorted down like what they did on commodity stock in last 3 years. Before they leasing hand, who are holding NOL will suffer the same pain as what 3 commodity share holders in last 3 years. Why container shipping companies will be shorted even badly is because commodity stock still maintain profit or breakeven, container shipping company is making huge loss and their pocket is with big hole.

NOL at 93cents are not the level Olam at 1.6 or Noble at 90. lower value will be reaching before bounce and it may last years till retailers lose out all the confidence. Good luck.

earlybird14 ( Date: 11-Jul-2014 09:24) Posted:

About 6000 lots are shorted in past 2 weeks. Shorting action is still continual and looking for more buyer. 2 possibilities again, 1) shortists has confidence container market will be worsen following the 16% of new container volume flooding to the container shipping market in next 2 years(3 shipping lines, dry bulk carrier, oil & gas tankers and container vessels, container vessels order books are the highest and not digested by the market yet) 2) Right issue will be coming soon in next few months, brokers are ordered to naked short NOL at higher price and their short will be covered with new shares issued by NOL, this action is very common in US Market.

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About 6000 lots are shorted in past 2 weeks. Shorting action is still continual and looking for more buyer. 2 possibilities again, 1) shortists has confidence container market will be worsen following the 16% of new container volume flooding to the container shipping market in next 2 years(3 shipping lines, dry bulk carrier, oil & gas tankers and container vessels, container vessels order books are the highest and not digested by the market yet) 2) Right issue will be coming soon in next few months, brokers are ordered to naked short NOL at higher price and their short will be covered with new shares issued by NOL, this action is very common in US Market.

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41.05? it is mission impossible. If NOL can be 41.05, Maersk and MSC major shareholders will take over Bill Gate and Warren Buffet to be the world richest.

NOL is looking even deeper price. Let' s wait and see if NOL can breakeven in coming quarter and shut my mouth. Just bear in mind, even NOL can break even, its share price won' t cross 1.1.

spore1 ( Date: 11-Jul-2014 08:52) Posted:

before u realise Nol may be trending up to 97 cents, $1.00 then 41.05. mkt dont wait for u . nobody knows when it will hit the bottom. NAV 94 cents that is a very good prices..

earlybird14 ( Date: 11-Jul-2014 06:35) Posted:

You are absolutely right. Nol 93.5 may be at when smrt is at 1.4 or 1.5, so it mean nol is on the way to 80 or even lower before bounce back come.

Holding power must be strong or why not just wait and see to pick at bottom? there is not too late to pick at early stage if nol start to turn over. However, currently the light is darken and darken. Those supporter keep on posted recovery and china export increase and etc. No matter how export increase, the freight rate still stay low. If nol is running the business below margin, it just imply more volume cause more losse

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Warren don' t buy 3 years loss making company, cheers. Your track record on Ezra, Olam, Noble and etc have consistent point which is they are profitable, may be making loss in 1 or 2 quarter but annum result is profitable. NOL is not.

counter ( Date: 11-Jul-2014 07:39) Posted:

Bro earlybird14,

If you read the quotes of Warren Buffet, you will find that he has a somewhat similar investment philosophy.

The difference is that he is consistent with this philosophy.

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Every singaporean is watching temasek. They have to be profitable. Even they would like to increase nol stake, they will choose at even lower price. NOL is loss making, increase her stake on it, more money has to pump in if right issue is exercise, more losses will incur. The only way for them to do so is to push down nol to rock bottom and start their plan. Like pushing down to 50 cents and announce 70cents or 90 cents to increase stake or take over nol.

sgng123 ( Date: 11-Jul-2014 03:05) Posted:

Do not underestimated NOL, when it is down it can go very low but not out due to temasek financial support but when the group completed it slot cost reduction plan the share might move in reverse direction very fast. Just need to check out NOl historical share movement u know, when it had been under water ( sub $1 range) for a consideration amount of time, it would suddenly move up very fast like a rocket taking off. High Beta stock is not dead stock do not confuse the two, it just the changes in share price is oftern very violent and very fast meaning unless u got the money to hold u cannot make money off it. Temasek can privatise ship anytime of the day after 2Q when the advantage of usingthe new ships are made more clear or they might be already in progress of a merger which is anyone guess. But the share price movement these past month very strange, we keep getting positive US trade data and Dow jones reached new height and US job data improvement. instead of moving along with the big picture, ship taking reverse course and this might be due to the release of 2Q result in Aug. Everyone is taking a hedge against bad news and if it turn out ship is doing ok in 2Q, a big short covering plan might be in progress might cause a big jump in share price movement as everyone jump in and move ship. Hand off this till 2Q, no need to lose sleep on it.

alexsmith ( Date: 10-Jul-2014 22:15) Posted:

Something is boiling up. What can be caught from this message is not the amount of the transaction, ie 36$$ (which enough to buy peanuts). It' s more like an M& A will occur soon hence important subsidiries to be kept tight first. Another possibility is the division of the terminal from NOL entity.

Anyone of this occurs would boost the share price. Just my 2 cents.

PS: Trade with your own risk calculation. Never blame others. Assume all the responsibilities as the traded money whether it' s LOSE or WIN, it' s all yours.

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You are absolutely right. Nol 93.5 may be at when smrt is at 1.4 or 1.5, so it mean nol is on the way to 80 or even lower before bounce back come.

Holding power must be strong or why not just wait and see to pick at bottom? there is not too late to pick at early stage if nol start to turn over. However, currently the light is darken and darken. Those supporter keep on posted recovery and china export increase and etc. No matter how export increase, the freight rate still stay low. If nol is running the business below margin, it just imply more volume cause more losses

spore1 ( Date: 10-Jul-2014 21:05) Posted:

what goes down will eventually come up. many eg like smrt $1.02 now $1.60,noble 90 cents now $1.37,Olam $1.42 now $2.46... Buy when not many ppl want to buy( Buy when ppl is fearful)

spore1 ( Date: 10-Jul-2014 20:34) Posted:

It NAV of 94 cents ( US0.76) seems attractive.

http://sporeshare.blog spot.sg/2014/05/nol.html

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Not everyday is sunny day. if u have holding power is fine, good luck.

counter ( Date: 09-Jul-2014 17:45) Posted:

If you read my previous posts, you will find that I like to buy the shares of a company when it is on the operating table (e.g. Olam, Ezra, and etc). Compare the current prices and the prices back then when they were under operation. As expected, when a share is under selling pressure, we will have bros here telling you that this price or that price is possible, or think about this price or that price. These are all distractions. Focus on your yourself and your strategy. It is the link between yourself and your strategy that will help you win in the stock market.

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think about it below 90.

counter ( Date: 09-Jul-2014 16:46) Posted:

This is a good time to accumulate.

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biased? anyway, touching new low. 94 breaking soon, may be tomorrow. This type of slow breaking down imply deeper lower price to go.

Lucky03 ( Date: 09-Jul-2014 10:31) Posted:

Aiya, you may be too biased.

earlybird14 ( Date: 09-Jul-2014 09:25) Posted:

In fact, PIL is performing better than NOL. Just bear in mind without the headquarter selling gain of 224Million. NOL 2013 loss is 290Million dollar. 2012 loss was 406million and 2011 loss was 478Million.

In total, there were 1billion loss made by NOL after talking all rubbish of new giant vessel delivery and cost cutting. NOL debt is 6.8billion compared to PIL 2.95billion.

PIL is running with all the old vessels with this type of result.

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In fact, PIL is performing better than NOL. Just bear in mind without the headquarter selling gain of 224Million. NOL 2013 loss is 290Million dollar. 2012 loss was 406million and 2011 loss was 478Million.

In total, there were 1billion loss made by NOL after talking all rubbish of new giant vessel delivery and cost cutting. NOL debt is 6.8billion compared to PIL 2.95billion.

PIL is running with all the old vessels with this type of result.

Lucky03 ( Date: 09-Jul-2014 08:28) Posted:

I thought when I read those postings on PIL, PIL was presented as a showcase of a star player and how they can serve as a benchmark to how poorly NOL is performing. They may seem to be in a worst or not better off than NOL based on the article from SeaNews Turkey below. They are in fact trying to do what NOL started 3 yrs ago and what Maersk has done even earlier and what most competitors are scrambling to do now to survive. I believe that leaves only NOL as a viable Asian candidate for Hapag.

http://www.seanews.com.tr/article/worldship/131044/PIL/

SINGAPORE's Pacific International Lines (PIL), which has posted losses in three of the last five years, posted a 2013 annual year-on-year loss of US$101 million, drawn on revenues of $45.16 billion, down 0.64 per cent.
Tuesday, 08.Jul.2014, 18:20 (GMT)
PIL reveals financial losses, ahead of US$801 million bond market bid
SINGAPORE's Pacific International Lines (PIL), which has posted losses in three of the last five years, posted a 2013 annual year-on-year loss of US$101 million, drawn on revenues of $45.16 billion, down 0.64 per cent.

This is the first time the owners, the YC Chang family, has revealed PIL's financial accounts, ahead of going to bond market to raise for S$1 billion (US$801 million), reports Alphaliner.

Terms of the bond issue are being finalised by Credit Suisse, DBS and Standard Chartered. PIL was last rated B1 by Moody's in 2010, and had its ratings withdrawn in 2011.

PIL units, container maker Singamas has been listed in Hong Kong since 1993, with PIL holding a 39 per cent share, annother unit Pacific Shipping Trust (PST), PIL's shipowning company is listed in Singapore.

PIL total debt stood at $2.95 billion as at the end of 2013, against total equity of $2.21 billion.

PIL results include the Singamas, which accounted for 28 per cent of revenue and PIL Logistics, which accounted for three per cent in 2013.

PIL's shipping business, which accounts for 69 per cent of revenue, includes 155 constainerships totalling 357,000 TEU and 11 multipurpose vessels between 17,000-27,000 dwt.

The company also controls four capesize bulkers, five supramax bulkers and two multipurpose vessels of 24,000 dwt, all of which are chartered out.

PIL also has an orderbook of 11 geared africamax containerships of 3,900 TEU, aimed at the carrier's FE-West Africa services. The firstof 12 ships in the series, the Kota Sabas, was delivered in late June.

PIL's trade coverage has expanded across all key tradelanes, including a small presence of the transpacific and FE-Europe routes, whichPIL entered in 2004, reports Alphaliner.

Africa and the Red Sea/Middle East Gulf sector account for 46 per cent of PIL's total container volume of 2.27 million TEU in 2013.

"The two main trades are under pressure as competitors have started to phase-in larger ships, which make PIL's fleet increasingly uncompetitive," said Alphaliner.

"PIL's largest units are six 6,600-TEUers deployed on the Far East-Red Sea trades. Even PIL's new Africamax ships of 3,900 TEU are nowdwarfed by competitors' gearless superpanamax ships of 5,000-5,800TEU recently phased into in the West Africa trades.

"PIL has however introduced in May gearless ships of 4,200 TEU on a Far East-WestAfrica service jointly operated with NileDutch," said Alphaliner.

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Healthway has been there and disappoint their investor again & again. Unless the MD is changed or bought over by others, it will be the same. Too much disappoinment which make market lose confident on it.

Cannot admit now is rock bottom price, good to buy. But expect it perform like Raffles? unless they employ one management board from Raffles as MD.

Siwomp ( Date: 27-Jun-2014 12:39) Posted:

"?We will focus on developing our outpatient healthcare services in Singapore, improving our outreach to patients with better service quality, as well as improving the affordability and convenience of our healthcare services for our patients and clients.?".....what the Executive Chairman Mr Fan said in FY2013 Annual Report......

Siwomp ( Date: 27-Jun-2014 12:26) Posted:

with a population of 5.4 millions and waiting time at polyclinics of ave 1.3hrs to 3hrs .... they should be able to generate more income and profit. The Mangement need to to a operation and cost review......ihmo.

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Thomson & Raffles have same thing, they have hospital. Healthway don' t have. Look at how much can hospital earn compared to clinics

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Over optimistic. Don' t compare Raffles medical group with healthway.

Look at the charges on Raffles Hospital, besides that Raffles Hospital strategically own a lot of corporate contract for those expatriate for health screening and etc.

Healthway business model cannot earn much money and their clinic really open at ulu ulu area. A small spike, i will just sell it away.

ohm136 ( Date: 27-Jun-2014 11:54) Posted:

Just thinking aloud " to be a millionaire with some $63k investment !" ie buy 1000 lots of Healthway now and sell them when its price goes up to $1.00. ........ this may be a bit far fetched but not impossible if u look at the price of other medical counters viz Raffles' historical price was low at about 30 cts & is about $4. today Thomson Medical was delisted at $1.75.

Of course, like all other investments, there are still investment risks.

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Haha, it is end. The big boy still don' t want to push. Fail to attract the attention from retailers.

Big boy, time to change plan for long term long on this stock. Pump & dump doesn' t work anymore!

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Manage to buy this morning @ 6.2. Hopefully, this time is a real pump