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Latest Posts By cheongsl
- Master
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| 24-Jan-2013 06:53 |
YZJ Shipbldg SGD
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Yangzijiang Chart Updates
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We must be grateful to the frog master, without him we are not able to pick up at such low price. Actually the Seaspan news was release in dec last year in China website  where 4 x 10000TEU will be awarded to Yang Zi Jiang at 360Million USD, they are still negotiating on the 8~10 years chartering service, maybe that is why it is still not annouce in SGX. Even china itself also will drive the ship building industries, eg. Guangxi Beihai city building the criuse, this is also builded  going to build by Ship builder in Qing Dao 广 西 北 海 市 传 来 消 息 ,该 市 将 打 造 国 内 首 艘 " 航 母 型 " 双 体 游 轮 用 于 北 海 海 上 观 光 旅 游 项 目 ,其 顶 层 设 计 模 拟 航 空 母 舰 造 型 ,主 要 承 载 仿 真 的 战 斗 机 助 飞 板 、 无 人 战 斗 机 、 防 空 导 弹 、 对 舰 导 弹 、 鱼 雷 发 射 器 等 ,满 足 人 们 渴 望 一 睹 航 母 英 姿 的 愿 望 . With the improvement of china economy, and more rich people geting into the market the leisury cruise market will start the kick off for ship building market also.  
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| 22-Jan-2013 20:18 |
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That means yesterday shortest already in breeding.  
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| 22-Jan-2013 18:33 |
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Today result is out shortist did not manage to cover the short sell. Not enough seller to cover?
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| 22-Jan-2013 06:27 |
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To my believe this should not be the work of ynnek, as he don't seems to have the knowledge of market, maybe just a follower or message in the institute play. But yesterday I observe something that is abnormal in short seller action that is short sell in the afternoon with large volume, after 3pm with 250lots and 308lots which seems like not enough seller for them to cover the large volume that they short sell in the morning. so at 3pm, they seems like still unable to cover the short position, thus have to generate another round of short selling after 3pm, that is quite a desperate action. But anyway I will still be queueing at 0.945 for my next pick to try my luck. But whether this short sell is generate by citi, nobody know, but this is what I strongly believe as no BB will know the issue of warrant before the market and start the action for forcing down. The first day of force down is still within their limits, which is less then 3% of the total share. The first day is the most easy but they need alot of share to short to generate the fear, but subsequent day will be much easy as more fear is generate, until the die hard fans remain, then they can push up to whatever point they like. Yesterday they make use of 4,200 lots to generate 24,000lots of sellers, some of this seller may be weak short seller that follow, some may be weak holder for this counter, some maybe technical player. This is why everytime people trying to get in when the recovery news is well know the price is actually two/three times higher compare to the time where sign of recovery start to appear. In the begining of recovery, this is the time where human emotion are most easily affected, the institute buyer will create fear by historical data and previous record, they will continue to reiterate the existing record. so institute player or BB can collect alot from there. When the market is almost firm that recovery is there, the price need to be at least 2~3times higher, in order for them to offload their large bulk that they pick up, this is why normal buyer will normal loss money in the market. As they are buying at the news that is already well know by everyone.
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| 21-Jan-2013 23:51 |
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Seems like you still have not do your homework on BDI  and how it is being affected by China economy and development. Or just pretend that you have no idea about this and beside that the non-linear effect of BDI you also seems to ignored based on previous posting. It can show either you are ignorant or pretent to be ignorant with the motive to just create fear. But just remember one thing that short seller say, they will let it position run, that is not true, as short seller they are more fear then the normal buyer as they are position is big and what they need to do is hit and run, if can't win, die die also must cover, other wise backside will be seriously burn.
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| 21-Jan-2013 23:16 |
YZJ Shipbldg SGD
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Invester is buying on reversal, trend, but short seller will try to short and continue to create fear,  that is why you always used the historical data  to try to create fear, but never look ahead when the sky and weather have change. When everyone know it  is the recovery of the industries, the price will be trading at double  or even three times the price of current. That would not be attactive to me anymore, just like the Reits that I have off-load all  last year september.  What short seller fear most is not able to get the seller to let him/her cover the short. otherwise they need to pay what ever higher price to cover, not mention $3, $6 or even $10, short seller still need to cover when time is up. So you can continue to short at your own risk, but I will pick up at the destinated pickup points. As  I believe the Yang Zi Jiang might be able to reach $10~$11(current keppel level)  if the shipbuilding industries really recover and their first rig project really success. I will off load by 1/3 pick up at 1.40++, as there are huge volume resistance at this level, if it fall back to 1. Then I will pick back. The other 2/3 will be decide when the days come nearer, current target is still picking up.  
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| 21-Jan-2013 22:43 |
YZJ Shipbldg SGD
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The Baltic Dry Index, a measure of costs to transport minerals and grains on ships, jumped the most since November this week as a shortage of Capesize vessels drove charter costs higher. The gauge rose 2.1 percent to 837 today, the 12th climb in a row, figures from the London-based Baltic Exchange showed. That rounded out a 10 percent weekly gain, the biggest since the span ended Nov. 16. Daily average returns for Capesizes, the largest iron-ore carriers, surged 45 percent this week, the most since September.
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| 21-Jan-2013 21:59 |
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Let's see what in China news: 中 国 新 船 价 格 指 数 发 布 1年 半 来 首 度 反 弹 this should be good news, hopefully next month can continue to move up. |
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| 21-Jan-2013 21:30 |
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ynnek is trying to create more panic seller, so that short seller can cover their position easier. If there is no seller for them to cover they will be in deep trouble just look at the volume trade, you will know. I am just small volume picker so I know I can hold and continue to pick up at destinated point for the big run.
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| 21-Jan-2013 21:21 |
YZJ Shipbldg SGD
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You should not thank me, as I am not the one that is selling, you should thank those weaker short seller (as they queue to short in the afternoon) or weaker holder (panic and sell) of the share that sell to you, as my target will still be at $1.40 for my first target, will continue to pickup at destinated point. As your reason that you suggest people to sell and create fear don't really stands. Have been observing for the pass few days, B is the buy being exercise, actually means that seller which is the one that take the action. S is the sell being exercise and so the buyer is the one that do the action. Below are the big volume that is more then 200 lots. So actually the shorting start in the morning, but by afternoon the buy back action actually start, that is to cover the shorting. But I believe many people know that if they don't queue at sell, the shortest is the one that will need to cover back, and shortest will be the one that is breeding. But to be actual the shorting actually cover at the same day, as they dare not carry to the next day, thus if one day there is not enough seller in the market that is what your fear and not huge buy up as your need to buy from the seller at whatever price they quote. That means if your short 4000lots in the morning $0.98, and find that the selling price have been queueing at $1.70, that is what your worry about. Not the big money, or huge holding power. Of course your can self create the sell price by queueing some at $0.985 with another account, but that is delay dead only. Currently what can be confirm is the buy volume is definitely more then the sell volume interms of passive player, actually how many of the sell volume is generate from the shortest also is a ??  
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| 21-Jan-2013 18:30 |
YZJ Shipbldg SGD
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Thanks, I have collect my at 0.985.
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| 21-Jan-2013 12:28 |
YZJ Shipbldg SGD
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I am also queueing there hope that today will be lucky.
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| 21-Jan-2013 12:08 |
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seems like my still on the queue, still have not get it.
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| 21-Jan-2013 07:38 |
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If you think 130million is Keppel cost, then China company should be able to do it in 1/10 of their pricing. As their labour, material and testing is cheap. How did I come up with the figures, as testing of EMC in Singapore will easily go to 20k ~ 80k, for the pass few years quote. but in China you can get the quote of 1k~5k to perform the similar test in the state accredited lab. That is how much the different you might be expecting. But off cause our cusotmer will not allow it to be test in China, as they don't trust them. If someone award the contract to China, it will be difficult for them to argue for other country testing. My boss will not allow, as the cost of setting up, shipping, labour staff allowance, and risk of technology transfer to China, prevent the low cost testing from being exercise. But currently seems like more testing is being done in China, as you can see even singapore train are tested in China before delivery to Singapore. As Yang is the first time doing this thus most likely they will spend more on rework, redesign and testing, thus assume the cost to went up to 40 million, and 130million earning to yang is quite a big sum, and after they get the track record, then keppel and sembmar really need to worry, as customer will easily flow towards yang due to price difference.
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| 21-Jan-2013 06:53 |
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I believe you must have some support for your claim, pls show us your data, as I have check the STI for the  past eight years, before chinese new year 4 years are up, 1 years  is maintain and 3years  are down. Thus your claim is only  38%, that is a very very high risk claims. Currently I  buy/sell  for trend that is  chances of 75% and above. As Buy (75%) sell (75%) = 56%, thus still have more then 1/2 the chances of winning.
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| 20-Jan-2013 05:20 |
China New Town
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China New Town Development
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There is nothing non risky in this world, but there is something know as control your risk.
Isn't driving a very risky event, why people drive as they are familiar with the driving through practice and the experience gain allow them to better drive on the road.
Risk control can help people to survive in the over inflated and volatile market. Calculate the risk of loss, instead of gain first before entering into any position, what is your stop loss, for even more risky asset be prepare to loss everything before enter. What is your portfolio risky asset? All this need to properly plan. Why entering into such position, etc.
Invester are those that think, analyse by themselve, listen to others view, but not necessary follow. Making own decision and learn from mistake. It is not necessary to have every of the position wining, as it is not possible. Prepare to admit the mistake and learn from it and move on. Experience gain will allow them to better control the market vehicle better.
Why people think it is risky, as most people just blindly follow, and did not even consider what is the calculated risk, how much can I bear with when the market turn against me, etc. Thus when the market really reverse, still sit there and hope that it is just a small adjustment, (only through experience individual can be more confident whether it is an adjustment or true reverse) still remain there, when the market show a sharp drop still stay there. Until the stock really drop for more then 30% then start to cry for the hard earn money. Those that over purchase will even be out of the market for life, as they consider the market as a really monster that will eating away their money.
It is easy to blame the market, blaming others then blame oneself. Thus people prefer to make decision by others decision, then oneself so that there are something/someone to be point to, when there is problem.
I can say that I have divest all my Reits since last year september, as I consider them risky, people might say the price still continue to increase, you are a losser. But I don't think so as I do my own decision and what others say might not be true, just believe in your ownself. As nobody else understand your reason better then yourself. For divident yielding share likes Reits, I look for at least 8% return at least, but currently average are 5~6%. Reits are paying out 90% above of there earning. Thus any stoping of the rental can be further impact the divident payout rate, as fixed asset cost, like maintenance, labour, etc are all there. Reits stock fluctuation can be great if the economy turn sour. I make a mistake in 2007/2008 for not divest in the Reits, where the price subsequent drop by more then half. I make a correct decision by pick up when the divident yield are around 20%. Only future can tell you what pass decision is it correct or wrong.
Thus currently safety porfolio is leaving there waiting for enter, recently have concentrate more on the trading portfolio.
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| 19-Jan-2013 09:28 |
China New Town
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China New Town Development
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Investor don't just  look at whether is it a blue chips or good fundamental. Blue chips or good fundamental will only be part of it's consideration during the investment. They also look at future trend, possibility of profiting from the investment, etc. If you talk about blue chip, there are many blue chip that turn into rotten worms, eg. Creative previously when it is a blue chip trade at 60+USD at high, but now only ~3USD. CSM price drop so much also and finally delised. Venture high at $25 now only trading at $8.... Thus invester should be able to analyse making own decision, and have able to learn and admit  for his/her own mistake and moveon to  grow. There is no point in puting ones opinion to others an ask them to accept yours. As the market will tell you whether it is right or wrong. Thus making money is the end true philosophies of investor. Thus investor take calculated risk to achieve his/her intension.
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| 19-Jan-2013 08:43 |
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Yangzijiang Chart Updates
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Agreed, as the volume vs price chart show large volume below current price for 1 yrs period, thus the volume of below $1 is actually the pick up point for many individual, institute and fund manager, but for individual usually the tolerance is limited, just look at the up and down around 0.9 to 1.1, many individual should have being shake out of the game, but offcause, the recent force down should be another run trying to wape out those die hard fans of the counter before it can initialise the movement,  thus the price should be able to achieve a much higher range for them to make profit (this might take longer time), usually the target will be double or more. Thus, chances of it reaching the previous $2 is possible, but need to observe the market trend closely. Currently my first target off load point is still at around $1.40 for 1/3 of my vest.
 
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| 19-Jan-2013 00:43 |
China New Town
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China New Town Development
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It is not a good news or bad news, as interested invester, how much are they paying for the new shares, if lower price then current, it will dilute the share. What will the money be used in, all this was still unidentify, thus it is not really a good or bad news. Trading halt not nessary to release immediately, but if trading halt really happen, and for days, just check the price and volume, if there is certain major changes, then you can roughtly predicted the type of news that you will be expecting. As it will not be full proof without leakage before the halt take place. There are alot of short-seller out there in the market  to create fear out of nothing, inorder to scavange short terms benefits, thus if you decide to be an invester, need to take your own judgement and decision.
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| 18-Jan-2013 21:52 |
YZJ Shipbldg SGD
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Yangzijiang Chart Updates
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As expected not a bad news.
This announcement is made by China New Town Development Company Limited (the
“Company”) pursuant to Part XIVA of the Securities and Futures Ordinance of Hong Kong
and Rule 13.09 of The Rules Governing the Listing of Securities on The Stock Exchange of
Hong Kong Limited (the “SEHK”).
The board of directors (the “Board”) of the Company wishes to inform its shareholders that
the Company is currently in discussions with several independent third parties (the
“Investors”) regarding the possible investment in the Company in the form of subscription of
new shares. As at the date of this announcement, no agreements have been reached and
neither any non-binding letter of intent nor binding agreement has been signed by the
Company. It is uncertain whether subsequent discussions with such Investors will lead to a
materialization of the possible investment in the Company. Shareholders and investors of
the Company are advised to exercise caution when dealing in the shares of the
Company.
The Board confirms that, save for the above, the Board is not aware of any information which
must be announced to avoid a false market in the Company’s securities or of any inside
information that needs to be disclosed under Part XIVA of the Securities and Futures
Ordinance of Hong Kong.
At the request of the Company, trading in the shares of the Company on the SEHK and the
Singapore Exchange Securities Trading Limited (the “SGX”) was suspended with effect from
1:15 p.m. and 1:25 p.m. on 14 January 2013 respectively pending the release of this
announcement. The Company intends to apply to the SEHK and the SGX for the resumption
of trading in the shares of the Company on SEHK and SGX respectively with effect from 9:00
a.m. on Monday, 21 January 2013.
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