ShareJunction - Member Posts

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Seems like I am only the few that is continously picking up on this counter. Yesterday have just get another 44lots at 0.205.

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How did you classified new orders, seems like this order did not appear in the SGX news, as I go through the SGX annoucement did not come across this. But from the internet seems that this contract is being award in Jan 2012, and suppose to deliver in 2013 and 2014.

darkknight ( Date: 27-Mar-2013 07:31) Posted:

Only if it is new orders news, else still have to wait patiently for the counter to appreciate. :)

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2013年 3月 22日，新扬子江造船有限公司为新加坡金鹰集团旗下山东亚太森博浆纸有限公司建造的 6艘巨型木片运输船中的第一艘举行命名交付仪式，该船命名为 “巴达维亚 ”号，是目前世界上最大的木片船。　　据悉，此前世界最大的木片船为日本建造的 5万吨级大型木片运输船，而新扬子造船建造的 “巴达维亚 ”号船长 215米，宽 37米，满载负荷 7万吨，吃水 11.5米。和同类运输船相比， “巴达维亚 ”号具有运力大、运效高、环保节能、绿色低碳的特点，可以有效降低运输成本。该船的交付可大大提高亚太森博原材料进口的运力，对中国制浆造纸行业综合实力的提升起到积极的推动作用。　　金鹰集团业务涵盖林浆纸、农产品加工、能源开发等领域。山东亚太森博浆纸有限公司是该集团旗下的一家大型现代化浆纸企业，也是目前中国最大的木浆生产企业，运营着目前世界上单条规模最大、工艺技术装备最先进、环保水平最高的木浆生产线。

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The 22 Feb 2013, the breakup is a messy one, not nice lah.

iPunter ( Date: 23-Mar-2013 15:48) Posted:

From 22 Feb 2013, it " Chiong Aaaaaaaaaarh!!!" to 1.00,

then slumped and remained down around .93 two days later...

Yesterday, it " Chong Aaaaaaaarh!!!" to .97...

If it can rise above 1.00 next week, then only it will be beautiful...

cheongsl ( Date: 23-Mar-2013 14:35) Posted:

It is beautiful as it happen almost at the same time. This is not really that common to happen at the same moment. I don't quite get you about a month ago, as nothing happen a month ago. But two months ago, you can also see this type of beautiful breakdown.

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It is beautiful as it happen almost at the same time. This is not really that common to happen at the same moment. I don't quite get you about a month ago, as nothing happen a month ago. But two months ago, you can also see this type of beautiful breakdown.

iPunter ( Date: 23-Mar-2013 13:52) Posted:

I can't understand why sifu thinks the chart is beautiful...

If you look at the chart, a month ago, a similar situation occurred,

and may who went in got burnt till " chao ta" ... Care to expain?

cheongsl ( Date: 23-Mar-2013 08:37) Posted:

Is a nice chart technically.

Price breakup, Volume breakup, CCI breakup, RSI breakup, MACD breakup and stochastic also breakup

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Is a nice chart technically.

Price breakup, Volume breakup, CCI breakup, RSI breakup, MACD breakup and stochastic also breakup

Flyordie ( Date: 22-Mar-2013 11:49) Posted:

Seems like the buying interest is back...

We will see....

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Still waiting for the warrant exercise date to start, which is next thursday (28March 2013). I don't think citi group will spend so much money and just let it seat there. But they will need to work harder, as the warrant is based on RMB to convert, and currently Singapore dollars is getting weaker compare to RMB, they need to at least push higher then 1.70 to make it attactive. The higher they push the more they can sell for the warrant.

WanSiTong ( Date: 21-Mar-2013 10:39) Posted:

hen tat kaki hen tak 0.945 / 0.950 for quite sometime !!? Smiley

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Note your sources.

dippyboy ( Date: 20-Mar-2013 08:31) Posted:

Hi cheong,

i believe you just copy and paste the segment results.However if you used both current and non current assets htm which is the total ,my figures for htm is correct.

The 900m investment income you mention is the gross revenue.There is substantial interest cost involved from the borrowings which should be used to stripped out from the gross revenue.There is also impairment of htm products which should be stripped out from any returns and my estimates are based on that.In 2012 the total borrowings is 7.4b with a total of 11.4b htm products.

the micro finance business is not the htm segment as its insignificant to it.

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Noted, since it is non derivative,thus hedgeing is not part of it.

WanSiTong ( Date: 20-Mar-2013 13:56) Posted:

Extraded from YZJ annual Report 2011 (2012 is not availiable), Pg 56- Significant Accounting policies :

(iii) Financial assets, held-to-maturity

Financial assets, held-to-maturity are non-derivative financial assets with fixed or determinable

payments and fixed maturities that the Group’s management has the positive intention and

ability to hold to maturity. If the Group were to sell other than an insignificant amount of financial

assets, held-to-maturity, the whole category would be tainted and reclassified as available-forsale.

They are presented as non-current assets, except for those maturing within 12 months after

the balance sheet date which are presented as current assets.

(iv) Financial assets, available-for-sale

Financial assets, available-for-sale are non-derivatives that are either designated in this category

or not classified in any of the other categories. They are presented as non-current assets unless

management intends to dispose of the assets within 12 months after the balance sheet date.

(b) Recognition and derecognition

Regular way purchases and sales of financial assets are recognised on the trade-date – the date on

which the Group commits to purchase or sell the asset.

Financial assets are derecognised when the rights to receive cash flows from the financial assets have

expired or have been transferred and the Group has transferred substantially all risks and rewards of

ownership. On disposal of a financial asset, the difference between the carrying amount and the sale

proceeds is recognised in profit or loss.Any amount in the fair value reserve relating to that asset is

transferred to profit or loss.

(c) Initial measurement

Financial assets are initially recognised at fair value plus transaction costs except for financial assets

at fair value through profit or loss, which are recognised at fair value. Transaction costs for financial

assets at fair value through profit or loss are recognised immediately as expenses.

(d) Subsequent measurement

Financial assets, available-for-sale and financial assets at fair value through profit or loss, are

subsequently carried at fair value. Loans and receivables and financial assets, held-to-maturity are

subsequently carried at amortised cost using the effective interest method.

cheongsl ( Date: 19-Mar-2013 07:30) Posted:

Hi dippyboy,

I don't quite get you what do you mean by 11 rmb htm asset is like CAO, what do you mean by 6% interest as this seems to be different from their financial report? Maybe you can provide your proof for your wording why with htm asset is big time speculating?

Most company have held to maturity investment, especially in building industries. They will need vest amount of raw material, and the project is not complete within a short period. Eg. when the contract is sign, the fabrication and manufacturer might take 1 years later to start. Thus to avoid the contract from getting into loss, the company will need to hedge the material price for 1 year, so that the price of material go up the company will still get the material at the same price as 1 year ago, if it go down the company might consider loss the hedging and purchase directly outside or just complete the hedging sales. Similar go to foreign currency, hedgeing might also required.

Every normal individual also have held to maturity investment, insurance, fixed deposit, saving insurance, etc

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Hi dippyboy,

Thanks for sharing, but your figure seems to be strange and does not tally with what the financial report.

	2012 ('000 RMB)	2011 ('000 RMB)
Shipbuilding Related Segment	13,487,258	14,608,897
Held-to-Maturity Investment	1,096,331	916,878
Micro Finance Business	215,503	180,053
Total Revenue	14,799,092	15,705,828

In your analysis you mention 2011 HTM revenue as 600m, but the actual is 916.9m. And your reason for the risk is borrowing to other business, but that belong to micro finance business. FYI, 6% return isn't alot, it is even lower then the GDP of China. The HTM asset in 2012 is 7.5b and 2011 is 6.6b and not 11.4b as what you have state.

And the warrant issue to pay the divident is also very funny in the ideas that the warrant is only S$19m, but the divident payout is S$191m.

dippyboy ( Date: 19-Mar-2013 23:58) Posted:

Hi cheong,

basically i look at the finances and roughly there is 600m revenue from 10b htm year 2011 with 100 profit and 500m provision for impairment. this means 6% margins is from this htm loans but earning only 1% real returns with real default risks. Its mind boggling when there is risk free fixed deposit rates of 3.3% in china rmb but coy choose to invest and take on risk in these off balance sheet financing for smaller business in china at such ridiculous net returns.Banks obviously are happy to facilitate such loans much like how they shift risk thru sale of wealth mgmt products and earns hefty commisions risk free. As you should know banks in china have reserve ratios that limit circulation of money and banks usually lends to state owned business with implicit state backing .Smaller biz have difficult time borrowing and they collaborate with banks thru off balance sheet financing and i believe yzj is a party to this phenomenom by acting as a third party risk taker to earn high interest from such shortterm underground lending.

Moreover good corporate governance means unutilized cash should be returned to shareholders if it cant be put to good use. There is currently 11.4b htm products out of 16b equity which is not a usual htm investment level.More over coy recently needs to raise warrents for cash for working capital use despite having such massive htm investment and instead of drawing it down, it raise it to 11.4b. Then there is 1b dividen to be paid and subtantial capital needs to develop its residential project so one can only wonders why such a decision is made to further increase htm portfolio . Is it acting as a charity supporting local industries ? In effect additional borrowing are akin to borrioing and paying interest to pay dividens. Why would one do such thing if coy is already cashrich.

If yzj wants to be a banker then since it take on the full risk as a bank , then it should earn corresponding reasonable returns for the risks. Anyway its a ship builder with no banking experience and risk mgmt framework of a lender.Its always highly suspicious when core business is subordinate to speculative investment. Moreover its a chinese company so the previous wave of fraud in chinese firms definately affects sentiment since who are they lending so much money to.If the borrowers abscond, will the quality of collateral be retrievable and is there any enforcebility in the claims in the event of a systemic default in htm lending......

Already we have heard of longyuan , huaxia banks defaults in wealth mgmt products and recently the solar bond implosion. Many of the loans could be lend to unsustainable businesses which thrives on the stimulus binge in 09. Now with the free money all dried up , many are not sustainable in an environment of excess capacity and cutthroat competition.

iPunter ( Date: 19-Mar-2013 07:58) Posted:

I would say that term stock-trading, ie holding for various durations, is essentially a compromise of sorts, since long-term holding is beset with the frustration of frequent market corrections resulting in much time wasted while waiting for returns.

It is hard to say which approach is better than the other, since both approaches are faced with potential for big losses if wrong decisons are made, regardless of the time frame involved.

Ultimately, which approach to adopt is purely dependent on the temperamental make-up and aptitude of the individual for each.

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I don't think they will let it run before the AGM.

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Hi dippyboy,

I don't quite get you what do you mean by 11 rmb htm asset is like CAO, what do you mean by 6% interest as this seems to be different from their financial report? Maybe you can provide your proof for your wording why with htm asset is big time speculating?

Most company have held to maturity investment, especially in building industries. They will need vest amount of raw material, and the project is not complete within a short period. Eg. when the contract is sign, the fabrication and manufacturer might take 1 years later to start. Thus to avoid the contract from getting into loss, the company will need to hedge the material price for 1 year, so that the price of material go up the company will still get the material at the same price as 1 year ago, if it go down the company might consider loss the hedging and purchase directly outside or just complete the hedging sales. Similar go to foreign currency, hedgeing might also required.

Every normal individual also have held to maturity investment, insurance, fixed deposit, saving insurance, etc.

dippyboy ( Date: 19-Mar-2013 02:16) Posted:

If theres a systemic default in the 11b rmb htm asset on the balancesheet, then the 6% interest to be the guarantor of such loan on behalf of the banks to take on all the default risk will make it look foolish since banks earns the other 6% risk free off balancesheet.

Always fishy when a company went big time to speculate big on its non-core business. Sounds like another CAO if the credit bubble implodes in china. Its cheap for a good reason ........

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Yup shorting is investing also, if you do proper planing. But I don't short as the room for loss might be much higher then long, and I don't have confidence that my view will correct most of the time, as there are always 10% or 15% probability scenario that turn into the other way.

iPunter ( Date: 14-Mar-2013 13:32) Posted:

Shorting is method of investing...

The shorter invests his money (margin) with the intention to cover his position when profits are made.

Longers are also well known to lose a lot of money in stocks. So whether one goes long or short, it is still an investment choice, the aim of investment being to grow one's money. One can gorw one's money by shorting. If this is not true, then no one will be playing short.

Furthermore, shorts also provide added liquidity to the market, which is desirable.

Sporeguy ( Date: 14-Mar-2013 10:55) Posted:

Shorting is a few steps closer to gambling

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Get another 10lots today

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Today Europe are all breeding, except UK, stand green green. US also open in red.

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I am still holding tight, and will continue to pick up at different pricing and duration before the shipping building industries pickup by 2014~2015.

oldflyingfox ( Date: 04-Mar-2013 21:33) Posted:

It is too late to consider selling now...

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Yang Zi Jiang seems to be welcome me back to singapore.

Stay in Hainan for the last two weeks. The place seems to be over hot with property, alot of new building all half way build, not only near city area but also the rural area, deep inside the mountain. As for road, vehicle is not as much only at those tourist area. Jam like ....... Take hours to get in. Seems like those chinese have more spending power then me. As I consider those items expensive, but for them they seems just like nothing. Retail sector in city don't seems to be performing too well, as just few days in the city can see the few shop changing owner. But can confirm is many other province people go to Hainan, as on the road the " qiong" car plate is less then all others vehicle. Seems like tourist island is still quite suscessful for the china center in implementing for hainan.

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Seems like you are just ignorant about the industries as this is not the first time I point out your mistake, or maybe you are not ignorant but trying to spread romous.

1) 1% deposit to start ship building, this is the first time I heard of, maybe you or your company is offering such service? As it is usually 15% for advance payment/design, 25% or 35% for kick start manufacturing and assembly, of cause this is contract dependent, and both party need to come to mutual agreement.

2) China Government setting ship industries as one of the key industries for development is only happening recently (" I believe this is trigger by Japan Diao Yu Dao incident, they are actually eyeing on strength the ship building, but main focus is strengthen their Navy capability" ), so where did the refinancing coming from? The simulus parkage is still not out, the five year action plan is still under formulation.

3) YZJ bet for million dollars from the market, did they get from us? They get from the citi group and this is normal present economy it is a trading between Citi and YZJ. They also expand by acquisition during this down period, so that when times rippen they will be growing even stronger.

But thanks any way, I get my share of $0.95.

I will be going oversea this new year to enjoy myself, see your two weeks later.

ynnek1267 ( Date: 07-Feb-2013 13:25) Posted:

It is 100% not possible. The cash in YZJ is shown for fun. All shipbuilding companies are facing payment problem. 1% deposit to start building vessels has made their cash position very bad.

Without China government support on their refinancing, China shipyard industries has collapse.

YZJ bet for million dollars from market, where got money to launch share buy back which need real cash not the figure stated on the paper. Wahahaha!!!!!

Continue to dream, price drop day by day and will accelerate after CNY once result release.

Hulumas ( Date: 07-Feb-2013 12:35) Posted:

Remember: Share buy back scheme will be executed, I suppose

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So you change you point so fast? previously you mention the result will be very bad, after show that the result will not be so bad, now you say no future, where the China government have clasified the shipbuilding industries as the key development industries in the coming five years. Maybe you will say future also not reliable, china government will fall, go back to past? This has been always your stands, changing your words like changing of weather, but I still need to show my gratitute to you as you help to create some fear, so that I can still continue to pick up before it can start to fly.

ynnek1267 ( Date: 06-Feb-2013 21:57) Posted:

So? only you have this new? everybody have the new why never go up?

Play share play for future. no future share nobody dare to push.

Even coming result is good, it will just spike up a bit and then heading down. Wahahaha!!!!!!

cheongsl ( Date: 06-Feb-2013 21:23) Posted:

Please continue to cook further to 0.95, I am queuing there to pick. Please do it fast before the action plan and simulation package for the shipping industries package come out. Please do it before Chinese New Year, as Yang Zi Jiang final year result should be releasing after Chinese New Year. Base on the annoucement earlier on the manufacturing progress by Yang Zi Jiang, it would be expecting the result to be continue to in line with current progress.

As in 3rd quarter total 39 vessel has handover, and by end 2012 it is (26+16+6)=51vessel, so last quarter is handing over 12 which is roughly still in par with previous few quarter.

扬子江船业在 2012年造船市场低迷的情况下经营发展依旧稳健。
　　 2012年，新扬子实现完工交船 26艘 159.4万载重吨，完成 2012年的生产计划，其中包括按期交付中远集运 10艘 4250TEU集装箱船；新开工 30艘，完成原计划的 88.2%；下水 28艘，完成计划的 93.3%。
　　老扬子面临搬迁，在面对人员不稳和设备减少的情况下，依然完工交付 6型共 16艘船 34.9万载重吨（原计划交船 18艘，后两艘调整到春节前交付），交船产值 39.5亿元，开工 5艘，上船台 12艘，下水船舶 14艘，基本完成 2012年的生产计划。
　　中舟受船市影响，物量不足，加上部分物量改由新厂制作，全年计划完工物量 12万吨，实际完工 83450吨，完成率 69.5%，未能完成全年完工物量指标。但中舟公司扩大经营范围，完成了 40万吨级矿砂船舱口盖、大型石化钢结构和环保除尘设备钢结构等新型产品的制造。
　　扬子鑫福基建技改与自主生产并重。在 2012年完成了 900T龙门吊的组装调试运行，吊离式坞门制作并安装到位，并且在 2012年末还实现了万箱船开工建造的大节点。
　　扬子长博 2012年交船 9艘， 11#47500DWT船也在年底交付船东，预计全年实现销售收入 5.66亿元，基本完成了董事会下达的经济指标。

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Please continue to cook further to 0.95, I am queuing there to pick. Please do it fast before the action plan and simulation package for the shipping industries package come out. Please do it before Chinese New Year, as Yang Zi Jiang final year result should be releasing after Chinese New Year. Base on the annoucement earlier on the manufacturing progress by Yang Zi Jiang, it would be expecting the result to be continue to in line with current progress.

As in 3rd quarter total 39 vessel has handover, and by end 2012 it is (26+16+6)=51vessel, so last quarter is handing over 12 which is roughly still in par with previous few quarter.

扬子江船业在 2012年造船市场低迷的情况下经营发展依旧稳健。
　　 2012年，新扬子实现完工交船 26艘 159.4万载重吨，完成 2012年的生产计划，其中包括按期交付中远集运 10艘 4250TEU集装箱船；新开工 30艘，完成原计划的 88.2%；下水 28艘，完成计划的 93.3%。
　　老扬子面临搬迁，在面对人员不稳和设备减少的情况下，依然完工交付 6型共 16艘船 34.9万载重吨（原计划交船 18艘，后两艘调整到春节前交付），交船产值 39.5亿元，开工 5艘，上船台 12艘，下水船舶 14艘，基本完成 2012年的生产计划。
　　中舟受船市影响，物量不足，加上部分物量改由新厂制作，全年计划完工物量 12万吨，实际完工 83450吨，完成率 69.5%，未能完成全年完工物量指标。但中舟公司扩大经营范围，完成了 40万吨级矿砂船舱口盖、大型石化钢结构和环保除尘设备钢结构等新型产品的制造。
　　扬子鑫福基建技改与自主生产并重。在 2012年完成了 900T龙门吊的组装调试运行，吊离式坞门制作并安装到位，并且在 2012年末还实现了万箱船开工建造的大节点。
　　扬子长博 2012年交船 9艘， 11#47500DWT船也在年底交付船东，预计全年实现销售收入 5.66亿元，基本完成了董事会下达的经济指标。

ynnek1267 ( Date: 06-Feb-2013 20:07) Posted:

I am frog cooker. Wahahaha!!! Cook all the frog here. Wahahaha!!!!

NoMoney ( Date: 06-Feb-2013 19:38) Posted:

Haha frog master here again