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18-Apr-2013 21:00

YZJ Shipbldg SGD / Cruising with the ship ..Yangzijiang

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If you just base on the recent news of various bond market are being stop and various investigation being taken place. I believe it is under control. As with the new leadership, especially both are with good financial background, they will be able to bring China to better high. There is high intension for the new government to be corrected and to fight corruption. Ensure the market is not over expend by controlling the GDP growth, and reduce the property market risk etc.

连日来，多位债券从业者被调查，债券市场一下子人心惶惶。 4月 18日，多家银行和金融机构向 21世纪网表示，目前已经暂停了债券业务。债券市场进入急冻状态。

债券门发端于万家基金经理邹昱因代持债券和利益诉讼被相关部门调查。一时之间，对于债券代持风险再次受到了业内的关注。随后，中信证券 [0.66% 资金研报 ]固定收益部执行总经理杨辉被公安机关带走。这两起事件，让市场猜测，这并不是孤立的，并分析，银行间市场监管升级。但据 21世纪网了解，央行等并未发文，对债券市场展开整顿。

而 4月 17日，传出齐鲁银行金融部徐大祝被公安机关调查拘留让事件距离真相又近了一步。深圳一家基金公司副总经理分析称，此事最可能的是通过丙类账户利用一二级市场价差套现，这当中需要银行的内部人员紧密配合，否则不可能成功，徐大祝可能就是配合邹昱的人。

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18-Apr-2013 20:38

YZJ Shipbldg SGD / Cruising with the ship ..Yangzijiang

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So where is your support of saying? Till date only plain talk without support.

dippyboy ( Date: 18-Apr-2013 20:02) Posted:

There is high risks in the credit and bond market in China on top of a property bubble. Something sets off the defaults it wil have a catastrophic impact on bond holders.

The wheels of change is already set in motion.China is cracking down on interbank lending. this will have repercussions when bond holders who will suddenly found out massive fraudulent credit ratings on otherwise promised safe products sold by glip talking bankers salesman who are only looking at their own commisions.basically selling a one way ticket to the dustbin for investors who bought unreliable bonds with no means of getting paid back in the projects invested. Subprime bubble 2.0.

16b equity-11b htm writeoff=5b equityx80c/16b mv=25c nav bv.

One have to buy way below 25c f/v to get the additional margin of safety if provisions is accounted for in the event of systemic bond and property crash in china.The market might be unfair during these times but if its cheap enough and coy doesnt go belly up then some of the provisions might be written back and you gain! If you look the other way round, there is potential 80% returns for shortist to be earn in such event.

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18-Apr-2013 07:25

YZJ Shipbldg SGD / Cruising with the ship ..Yangzijiang

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I am quite puzzle in why you compare China with greece or cyprus. I saw the news on IMF report risk in China. The IMF report mention 27% debt vs GDP in 2010 and 47% of the debt is from local government. Most of loans will be reaching repayment in 2012~2014. Why is the report on 2010 GDP? Is it an old news? debt vs GDP in 2011 is 38.5%, after China government discover the risk they are slowing down the economy and reduce the development, thus GDP growth have slow down, and in 2012 the debt vs GDP is reduce to 22.16%.

But now you are compare with Cyprus which debt vs GDP is 87.26% in 2012 and Greece the debt vs GDP is 170.73%.

Even US process a higher risk of defaulting then China which have a debt vs GDP as 107.18%

dippyboy ( Date: 18-Apr-2013 04:36) Posted:

China private sector auditor refuses to sign off bonds for offbalance sheet financing.

Officials admit to using fake online data for GDP which doesnt add up to exports partners data.

Tightening policies noose wrong around china property speculators.

Multiple corrupt official exposed in owning ten and hundreds of undeclared property and un caught ones are secretly offloading them.

Common phenomenon of empty buildings in ghost towns littered city fringe.

Unprecedented first case of bond default in suntech.

Bird flu causing massive losses for poultry and f& b business.This could be the trigger that breaks the camels back.

Risk scenario:

Possible china housing commonly used as collateral for off balancesheet financing is being liquidated on margins calls for shortterm off balance sheet bonds/wealth management products which default due to unsustainable longterm projects with no real returns.Defaults sets off a chain of systemic crisis in all 2800 counties which is reliant on such funding. liquidation of housing further prick the housing bubble which collapsed together with the credit market. The result systemic crash will exceed us subprime lending and cause widespread bankruptcy for bond holders and highly leveraged property speculators. This is healthy for the long term development of china industries by cleansing out excess and inefficient players kept afloat by debt. Rebalancing of the economy can thereby resume as money stuck on housing mortgage can be diverted to consumption facilitating the new economic models .In a recession , low costs and spare abundant resources enables entrepreuners to innovate and create new growth industries . Creative destruction is essential for capitalism to work well.

Its obvious govt will step in to bail out state companies and employees which is running the ccp. However due to the massive liabilities which stretched 3t reserves to their limits their govt cannot bailout private bond holder which took risks for high returns,they will have to lose a big portion of wealth from the defaults.Needless to say those to lend money thru such spv off balancesheet vehicles is likely to be wiped out just like how greece bond writeoff wiped out cypruss savers .How iceland got bankrupted from speculating in subprime bonds.How lehman bros bonds got defaulted. This can happen in china too.

As the old saying goes, : You can keep your faith but dont depend on it.

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12-Apr-2013 05:45

YZJ Shipbldg SGD / Cruising with the ship ..Yangzijiang

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Ship building industries recovery still within expectation.

上个月全球造船业界的新造订单量为 249万 CGT，相比上月的 193万 CGT增加接近 30%，也多于 1月份的 210万 CGT，进入今年之后，按月度计算， 3月份的订单量最多。
根据 Clarkson近日发表的按国家接单情况的统计， 3月份中国的订单量为 68万 CGT位居世界第二；韩国造船业界的订单量为 109万 CGT，位居第一。韩国的新造市场的订单占有率情况为 44%，远高于中国的 27.4%。此外，日本在上个月的订单量为 47万 CGT，占有率达 19.4%。
另外， 2013年第一季度，全球新造订单量为 660万 CGT，同比增加 14%，去年同期的订单量为 580万 CGT。据悉，目前的新造船价已经下降到最低点，可能即将开始上升，在此背景下，船东为了底价订购亲环境、高效率船舶，正加快接单步伐。

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10-Apr-2013 20:27

Valuetronics / Biz Times june 26..Valuetronics to expand

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Unless there is a change in the management, otherwise the dividends should still be there. As they have been consistently payout the dividend.

2012 HKD 0.17

2011 HKD 0.14

2010 HKD 0.07

2009 HKD 0.045

2008 HKD 0.078

2007 HKD 0.063

tea444u ( Date: 10-Apr-2013 17:09) Posted:

but his one donno whether gibing dividends or not this year...and how much? if not more than 2 cents then how? judging from profits ,maybe not more than 2 cents ? i bought this before...not bad...generous coy...anyone can opine?

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06-Apr-2013 17:39

China Fishery / China Fishery - Low PE

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Fundamental this counter profit margin is good, but in short terms will be affect by the rights issue and especially those that look for quick bargain since the right is 1:1 the dilution is quite large. and exercise price at 0.34 which is quite low, thus if some shareholder did not take up the right, and those that take up the excess right might look for quick profit, thus usually after rights issue, short terms there is sell pressure. It may take half or one year before starting to show the real potential again. If the take up rate for the rights by shareholder is alot, then likely the sell pressure will not be great and in shorter duration the potential will be realise, thus currently will need to check the take up rate by shareholder.

Yes, currently is the ex-right value. Before ex-right closing is 0.6, thus ex-right adjustment should be (0.6+0.34)/2 = 0.47. The pushing down of the price shown is an interest in party to get more access rights, by generating lower interest for shareholder. But how is the effect need to wait until the right allotment annoucment.

starlene ( Date: 06-Apr-2013 15:26) Posted:

I wonder the existing 41% stake is a comfirmed deal or CF must return since CF is now unable to be successful in the takeover..being cash rich means CF can look for other better deals and CF is unlikley to fail as its financial position is strengthened..deal no successful,theoretical the price shd go up,since it dropped from 75cts to 58cts after deal is announced,and now the price is theoretical ex-rights

Blanchard ( Date: 05-Apr-2013 23:25) Posted:

In addition, if CF chooses to sell her existing stake in Copeinca to Cermaq, I think CF might earn a few millions? Just enough to cover the cost for this failed acquisition? Cash-rich CF can then look for other good deals...

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06-Apr-2013 10:19

China Fishery / China Fishery - Low PE

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Cash rich does not implies that price will go up, will need to observe whether is there any good investment on the cash.

starlene ( Date: 05-Apr-2013 23:08) Posted:

Recall how CF dropped from 75cts to 57cts after the takeover,don't be surprise CF may go up instead as it is now cash rich with the rights issue.

CF may then become cash rich with its recent rights issue...since deal to acquire the Peru fish co did not materalise as the major shareholders agree to sell to another co and not to CF.

Cermaq's per share price offer excludes Copeinca's proposed dividend of 3.56 kroner per share, and represents a premium of 10.9 percent to the offer price of 53.85 kroner per share launched by CFGL on March 13. It also represents a 55.8 percent premium to the closing price of the Copeinca share on February 22, the second last trading day prior to CFGL's announcement of the intended voluntary offer.

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05-Apr-2013 21:54

Straits Times Index / STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors

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I like isolator, whenever Iso mention long, we should escape, whenever Iso mention short, we should long. A good indicator, quite Zhun, currently what I see.

Isolator ( Date: 05-Apr-2013 21:47) Posted:

I long Dow again... It will be rebounding now... Lol

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05-Apr-2013 21:47

China Fishery / China Fishery - Low PE

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I was lucky in this counter, escape in time and also get the divident. Will continue to observe until next technical entering time.

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05-Apr-2013 21:18

KS Energy / KS Energy

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Undersubscribed seems like alot are really loss interest on the counter, as it performance is not good at all, excess application is due to alot of people hope to get away from the counter thus subscrip more so that they can sell all away with more money, as once the credit on 4 apr 2013, the volume surge and price drop significantly.

mcking ( Date: 05-Apr-2013 19:47) Posted:

--- Post Removed by User ---

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05-Apr-2013 20:53

KS Energy / KS Energy

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KS Energy	31-Dec-09	31-Dec-10	31-Dec-11	31-Dec-12
TOTAL REVENUES (S$m)	646.5	509.5	492.7	698.1
NET INCOME (S$m)	40	-98.4	-78.8	1.3
Profit Margin	6.19%	-19.31%	-15.99%	0.19%

Seems nothing much interesting, only that last year there is slight improvement in the income.

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05-Apr-2013 20:33

KS Energy / KS Energy

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The rights was issue at $0.41, which is almost 1/2 the initial share price.

4 share to 1 rights	0.41
Adjustment price after rights	0.698

Right Announce	27-Feb-13	0.77
Right Closure	7-Mar-13	0.67
Rights Credit	4-Apr-13	0.55

This rights will only credit into the account on 4 apr 2013, but seems like those over subscrip one sell away to make a quick earning so that they will be earning and get away from the counter.

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05-Apr-2013 20:10

KS Energy / KS Energy

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will do some personal research on this counter.

shuncheng ( Date: 05-Apr-2013 16:39) Posted:

anyone got news about this stock?

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05-Apr-2013 07:24

Valuetronics / Biz Times june 26..Valuetronics to expand

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Get in another 50lots two days ago.

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03-Apr-2013 22:42

YZJ Shipbldg SGD / Cruising with the ship ..Yangzijiang

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" Another China’s large private-owned Yangzijiang Shipbuilding is said to have won a $170m worth of jack-up drilling rig from a Malaysian shipowner at the end of last year, entering offshore sector for the first time and to top it off, Yangzijiang signed a preliminary agreement for one jack-up drilling rig with Qatar Investment Corporation. "

Qatar Investment corporation agreement news seems haven't release yet.

Also, sources said the shipowner secures additional options for four of same size at the yard.
Frontline 2012 is aggressively investing in newbuilding capesize fleet and has placed most of orders at Chinese shipyards, such as SWS, DSIC, and Yangzijiang Shipbuilding. If the owner firms up options and those signed by LOI, then it would have a total of 32 capesize bulkers on order.

Both news are last two days and seems more order will be seeing soon.

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03-Apr-2013 22:04

KS Energy / KS Energy

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Anyone vest in this counter, and have any information to share? As the recent Rights is over subscript, and also before the right issue, there is also picking up of share from the substantial share holder from the market. Seems that there is some anticipation of something.

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03-Apr-2013 12:35

Valuetronics / Biz Times june 26..Valuetronics to expand

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Volume seems picking up.

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02-Apr-2013 07:33

Straits Times Index / STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors

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SGX will not allow trading suspend company to remain in STI lah. Those company performance is not up to expect, they kick them off. So that STI will continue to show positive to attrach more innocent people to place they money in.

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01-Apr-2013 21:36

SMRT / SMRT

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China Railway is nothing better in reputation then SMRT.

23rd Jul 2011, Wen zhou train collision killed 40 people and injured at least 192.

28th september 2011, Shanghai closes 13 stations due to train collision, more then 270 people injured.

The recent formation of the China Railway Corporation which splitout from the Railway ministry, register asset is only 1,036billion RMB. But the total dept that the China Railway Corporation is 2,660billion RMB. This is a big sum not a small one, this is equivalent to European crisis national debt. The government given the target is to complete the 120,000km of railway by 2015, after so many years the railway ministry only complete 98,000km, which means 22,000km in 1 and 3/4years. That is why the railway ministry was being breakup to ensure that the government would not be blame for not meeting the target. With the formation of corporation, the government in one way push away the responsibility of meeting the target, they also push away the huge debt, for the pass development. Leave behind is a huge debt corporate that need to return the huge debt. Beside also the risky Bank default if China Railway Corporation fail to repay the debt. Just the interest to repay is already 25billion yearly. With such a huge dept as a corporation, it will be difficult for bank to continue to finance them(previously as it is borrow to government, now the government debt become corporate debt). Thus the fast and easy way to reduce debt will be by selling their asset or through corporation with others. Thus those involve in the operation or Reits or infrastructure funds might be opening their eyes big to decide which city metro to take on.

kelvinLim123 ( Date: 01-Apr-2013 19:08) Posted:

Navie to think they let SMRT run theirs, after all these bad publicity abt those major breakdown.

cheongsl ( Date: 30-Mar-2013 13:09) Posted:

China railway might soon start selling asset to raise money to cover their dept, not too sure will SMRT as an operator interested to operate China metro...

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30-Mar-2013 13:09

SMRT / SMRT

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China railway might soon start selling asset to raise money to cover their dept, not too sure will SMRT as an operator interested to operate China metro...

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