ShareJunction - Member Posts

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From Wikipedia :

A biofuel is a fuel that contains energy from geologically recent carbon fixation. These fuels are produced from living organisms. Examples of this carbon fixation occur in plants and microalgae. These fuels are made by a biomass conversion (biomass refers to recently living organisms, most often referring to plants or plant-derived materials). This biomass can be converted to convenient energy containing substances in three different ways: thermal conversion, chemical conversion, and biochemical conversion. This biomass conversion can result in fuel in solid, liquid, or gas form. This new biomass can be used for biofuels. Biofuels have increased in popularity because of rising oil prices and the need for energy security.

Bioethanol is an alcohol made by fermentation, mostly from carbohydrates produced in sugar or starch crops such as corn or sugarcane. Cellulosic biomass, derived from non-food sources, such as trees and grasses, is also being developed as a feedstock for ethanol production. Ethanol can be used as a fuel for vehicles in its pure form, but it is usually used as a gasoline additive to increase octane and improve vehicle emissions. Bioethanol is widely used in the USA and in Brazil. Current plant design does not provide for converting the lignin portion of plant raw materials to fuel components by fermentation.

Biodiesel is made from vegetable oils and animal fats. Biodiesel can be used as a fuel for vehicles in its pure form, but it is usually used as a diesel additive to reduce levels of particulates, carbon monoxide, and hydrocarbons from diesel-powered vehicles. Biodiesel is produced from oils or fats using transesterification and is the most common biofuel in Europe.

In 2010, worldwide biofuel production reached 105 billion liters (28 billion gallons US), up 17% from 2009,[1] and biofuels provided 2.7% of the world's fuels for road transport, a contribution largely made up of ethanol and biodiesel.[citation needed] Global ethanol fuel production reached 86 billion liters (23 billion gallons US) in 2010, with the United States and Brazil as the world's top producers, accounting together for 90% of global production. The world's largest biodiesel producer is the European Union, accounting for 53% of all biodiesel production in 2010.[1] As of 2011, mandates for blending biofuels exist in 31 countries at the national level and in 29 states or provinces.[2] The International Energy Agency has a goal for biofuels to meet more than a quarter of world demand for transportation fuels by 2050 to reduce dependence on petroleum and coal.[3]

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China is having very bad air pollution problem and car emission is undoubtedly one of the major culprit. As part of the clean emery strategy, biodiesel is one such option for a cleaner emission, beside electric car and hybrid model. If China imposes similar condition of certain percentage of diesel with palm oil, the impact will sky rocket !

Lucky03 ( Date: 18-Jan-2014 09:55) Posted:

Below shows how difficult or impossible to follow the calls from borking houses :

UOBKH in its Jan Corporate report recommended BUY for Wilmar. Then separately suggested shorting Wilmar when it was trading at $3.31. In today's ST report on MONEY section C4, it expects Wilmar to report its Q4 result to be in line an cited that crude oil and clean energies such as natural gas may emerge as winners and recovery in crude oil prices will have positive impact on palm oil prices.

CIMB recently cited Wilmar as target for shorting only to be quoted in ST Bulls and Bears daily trading report that Wilmar is CIMB Research's top picks on the plantation sector citing biodiesel usage in Indonesia picks up thereby reducing palm oil export and boost crude palm oil prices.

I wondered if these analysts realizing that as a whole, the borking house is flip flopping within a short time. Fundamental can't change in days. Are they analysts or traders or speculators ?!

Anyway in the report on pg C4, Citi mentioned the possibility of the return of the commodity super cycle that will see a large sustained price rise though it said they don't see an empirical basis for the argument yet.

MayBank Kim Eng top pick in the plantation sector is Wilmar for strong earning visibility and low cost of debt and hence has a BUY call with a TP of $4.30.

China's slowing economy has been cited as one key concern while US growth and strength in US$ cited as positive factors including recovery of crude oil prices. I feel that the Chinese economy is reshaping to be domestic consumption driven rather than overly dependent on export will actually be helpful to Wilmar's consumer brands of the golden fish brand cooking oil in the mid term.

Europe recover should also be positive to stable consumption though palm oil may not be their top choice. The increased focus on biodiesel will give a big boost to palm oil prices.

I'm positive on the fundamental. Any technical reading in the short term should be read with the context and backdrop of a larger macro picture.

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Below shows how difficult or impossible to follow the calls from borking houses :

UOBKH in its Jan Corporate report recommended BUY for Wilmar. Then separately suggested shorting Wilmar when it was trading at $3.31. In today's ST report on MONEY section C4, it expects Wilmar to report its Q4 result to be in line an cited that crude oil and clean energies such as natural gas may emerge as winners and recovery in crude oil prices will have positive impact on palm oil prices.

CIMB recently cited Wilmar as target for shorting only to be quoted in ST Bulls and Bears daily trading report that Wilmar is CIMB Research's top picks on the plantation sector citing biodiesel usage in Indonesia picks up thereby reducing palm oil export and boost crude palm oil prices.

I wondered if these analysts realizing that as a whole, the borking house is flip flopping within a short time. Fundamental can't change in days. Are they analysts or traders or speculators ?!

Anyway in the report on pg C4, Citi mentioned the possibility of the return of the commodity super cycle that will see a large sustained price rise though it said they don't see an empirical basis for the argument yet.

MayBank Kim Eng top pick in the plantation sector is Wilmar for strong earning visibility and low cost of debt and hence has a BUY call with a TP of $4.30.

China's slowing economy has been cited as one key concern while US growth and strength in US$ cited as positive factors including recovery of crude oil prices. I feel that the Chinese economy is reshaping to be domestic consumption driven rather than overly dependent on export will actually be helpful to Wilmar's consumer brands of the golden fish brand cooking oil in the mid term.

Europe recover should also be positive to stable consumption though palm oil may not be their top choice. The increased focus on biodiesel will give a big boost to palm oil prices.

I'm positive on the fundamental. Any technical reading in the short term should be read with the context and backdrop of a larger macro picture.

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Given Spore status as a trading and transport/port hub, I suppose our export stats may give a hint of global trade.

PUBLISHED JANUARY 17, 2014
Singapore's Dec NODX up 6% yoy, highest in over a year
BY TEH SHI NING PRINT |EMAIL THIS ARTICLE

Singapore's non-oil domestic exports (NODX) beat expectations to grow 6 per cent year-on-year in December, turning around from a revised 8.9 per cent fall in November to stage its strongest rise in more than a year - PHOTO: ST
Singapore's non-oil domestic exports (NODX) beat expectations to grow 6 per cent year-on-year in December, turning around from a revised 8.9 per cent fall in November to stage its strongest rise in more than a year.
Thanks to a rise in non-electronic products shipped out, which more than offset further decline in electronic exports, NODX far outstripped the market's consensus forecast for a modest 1 per cent year-on-year rise.
This was the median forecast from a Bloomberg poll of 12 economists, before International Enterprise Singapore released the data on Friday morning.
Month-on-month, the NODX also rose a seasonally-adjusted 9.2 per cent in December, reversing November's 4.2 per cent contraction. This too, beat the median forecast of 2.8 per cent growth from Bloomberg's poll of six economists.

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Hi, Octavia and WanSiTong. Thanks for sharing the very useful info ! Better to have the market and analysts expecting a lower set of results and hopefult to surprise on the upside than vice versa.

Octavia ( Date: 17-Jan-2014 11:44) Posted:

On its upcoming 4Q13 results due 20 Feb, UOB Kay Hian expects to see substantially lower contribution from sugar milling as the bulk of the milling was done in 3Q13. Other divisions are expected to be flat qoq although plantation is likely to have better qoq earnings on higher production and ASP, while biological valuation should have little impact on earnings. Potential share price catalysts include sustainable earnings stability to rebuild investors? confidence on the counter and a strong turning point in the Chinese soybean crushing market brought about by increased utilisation¸ which will deliver sustainable margins. UOB Kay Hian maintains BUY with $4.20 TP, implying a blended PE of 13.8x 2014F.

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Is higher CPO prices good or bad for Wilmar ? See OCBC report below issued on 26 Nov 2013 which has a fair value of $3.55 for Wilmar.

Wilmar: Forms China corn starch JV

 Corn starch JV in China

 No immediate earnings boost

 Upside probably limited

Forms China corn starch JV

Wilmar International Limited (WIL) recently

announced that it has formed a JV with

Tereos Internacional called Liaoning Yihai

Kerry Tereos Starch Technology Co Ltd. The

move will see Tereos acquiring 49% of the JV

company from WIL?s subsidiary for

RMB208m the JV will engage in the

operation of a corn starch facility in Tieling

(Liaoning Province) with a current annual

processing capacity of 700k tons of corn.

According to WIL, the acquisition marks the

second important step in the development of

the major partnership with Tereos in the

rapidly growing market for starch-based

products in China. However, we do not see

any immediate impact on earnings.

Shares already ran up sharply

Meanwhile, the recent recovery in CPO

(crude palm oil) prices has lifted plantation

stocks (WIL rose as much as 17% after our

upgrade to Buy on 6 Sep), but we believe

that some of these optimism may be

overdone. For one, WIL is still a net buyer of

vegetable oil (including CPO) and a continued

rise of input prices could result in a margin

squeeze for its consumer packs. Note that

because cooking oil is an essential food item,

it may also be subject to price caps should

inflation in China rises faster than the

government?s guidance. Secondly, the

enthusiasm over the Indonesian

government?s doubling of the bio-diesel

mandate to 10% blend may be a bit

premature. A recent Platts report suggested

that the Pertamina tender may not offer as

fat a profit margin as what the market is

expecting.

Maintain HOLD with S$3.55 fair value

Currently, WIL is trading close to our

unchanged fair value of S$3.55 (based on

12.5x FY14F EPS), suggesting that the stock

looks fairly priced around here. From a

historical perspective, we see that WIL?s

valuation is already close to its 2-year

average. Hence, we opt to maintain our

HOLD rating. We also advocate taking profit

closer to S$3.70. (Carey Wong)

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Not sure if this is a good site - http://www.palmoilhq.com/palm-oil-prices/

It shows year 2012 was bad and 2013 is generally higher than 2012 while Jan 2014 is better than Jan 2013 year on year.

Lucky03 ( Date: 17-Jan-2014 07:30) Posted:

The problem I have is I'm not sure the most accurate source of such CPO prices and for year on year comparison rather than mth on mth as prices of CPO is cyclical or it is not sensible to respond on mth to mth fluctuation.

earlybird14 ( Date: 17-Jan-2014 06:44) Posted:

CPO price dropping due to high stockpile. Soybean and corn is harvest and cheap. Among soy oil, sun flower oil, corn oil and palm oil, palm oil is the last to choose in the market.

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The problem I have is I'm not sure the most accurate source of such CPO prices and for year on year comparison rather than mth on mth as prices of CPO is cyclical or it is not sensible to respond on mth to mth fluctuation.

earlybird14 ( Date: 17-Jan-2014 06:44) Posted:

CPO price dropping due to high stockpile. Soybean and corn is harvest and cheap. Among soy oil, sun flower oil, corn oil and palm oil, palm oil is the last to choose in the market.

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Palm Oil Reserves in Malaysia Seen Climbing as Exports Drop
By Ranjeetha Pakiam
December 05, 2013 5:15 AM EST
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Palm oil stockpiles in Malaysia probably jumped to the highest level in eight months as exports from the world?s second-biggest producer declined for the first time since May, a Bloomberg survey showed. Futures fell.
Inventories expanded 6.2 percent to 1.96 million metric tons in November from a month earlier, according to the median of six estimates from a plantation company, analysts and traders. That?s the highest since March and 24 percent less than a year earlier, according to data from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board, which may release official data on Dec. 10. Exports dropped 5.4 percent to 1.57 million tons, while output fell 2.6 percent to 1.92 million tons, the survey showed.
Palm oil rallied into a bull market last month and is heading for the first annual advance in three years on speculation that output from top producer Indonesia may drop for the first time since 1998. Lower supplies and Indonesia?s push for higher biodiesel usage will keep prices between 2,600 ringgit ($808) to 2,900 ringgit a ton until March, according to Dorab Mistry, director at Godrej International Ltd.
?Prices will be supported at these levels because although inventories are higher, this should be the peak,? said Alan Lim Seong Chun, an analyst at Kenanga Investment Bank Bhd. ?The increase in stockpiles was because of the drop in exports due to a lack of major festivals in the near term and also the colder weather in the Northern Hemisphere.?
Seasonal Decline
Reserves will decline in December as production drops seasonally, Lim said. Output of the oil used in everything from candy to biofuels is typically highest from June to October and tapers off from November due to growing cycles.
Futures climbed 8.3 percent this year to 2,641 ringgit on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives in Kuala Lumpur after slumping a combined 36 percent in the past two years. Prices rallied to 2,692 ringgit on Nov. 22, the highest since September 2012.
Indonesian output will decline by 500,000 tons to 27.5 million tons this year, before rebounding to 30.5 million tons in 2014, Mistry told a conference in Bandung, Indonesia, on Nov. 29. The retreat this year would be the first drop since 1998, according to data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Production in Malaysia will climb to 19.4 million tons this year from 18.8 million in 2012, said Ivy Ng, an analyst at CIMB Investment Bank Bhd.
?Stockpiles are still much lower than a year ago and it?s still below the 2 million-ton mark,? Ng said. ?We are at the end of the high production season, so people won?t be too worried about the higher stock situation.?
Output Drops
Stockpiles in Malaysia have stayed below 2 million tons since April after reaching a record of 2.63 million tons in December last year. Imports were at 20,000 tons last month, unchanged from October, according to the median of five estimates. Output totaled 17.6 million tons in the first 11 months, according to official data for the first 10 months and the median estimate for November. That compared with 17 million tons a year earlier, board data showed.
Exports may have fallen due to the narrowing discount to soybean oil as consumers switch to the substitute, Ng said. The spread was at $67.42 a ton on Dec. 4, compared with the average $257 this year, data compiled by Bloomberg shows.
Nov. 2013 (Survey) Oct. 2013 (MPOB) Nov. 2012 (MPOB)
Output 1.92 1.97 1.89
Stockpiles 1.96 1.85 2.57
Exports 1.57 1.66 1.66
Imports 0.02 0.02 0.08
Figures are in millions of tons.
To contact the reporter on this story: Ranjeetha Pakiam in Kuala Lumpur at rpakiam@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: James Poole at jpoole4@bloomberg.net

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Below is a month old article but it is worth noting that the emphasis or legislation on the increased use of palm oil for biodiesel may boost the demand and prices of palm oil. If you go to car showrooms these days, you will see more promotion of diesel powered cars.

Palm Exports From Indonesia Seen Climbing to 9-Month High
By Yoga Rusmana and Eko Listiyorini
December 16, 2013 5:14 AM EST 1 Comments
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Palm oil shipments by Indonesia, the world?s largest producer, probably advanced to the highest level in nine months in November as rising prices prompted exporters to boost supplies. Futures gained.
Sales of palm and kernel oils rose 2.2 percent to 1.9 million tons from October, the median of estimates from five planters, traders and refiners compiled by Bloomberg showed. That?s the highest since February, data from the Indonesian Palm Oil Association show. Production remained at 2.4 million tons for a third month, according to four respondents. That brought output to 24.25 million tons in the first 11 months.
Shippers of the world?s most consumed cooking oil are seeking to increase overseas sales after futures reached a 14-month high in Kuala Lumpur in November. Prices are heading for the first annual gain in three years on speculation Indonesian output will decline for the first time since 1998. Production may drop 500,000 tons to 27.5 million tons, Dorab Mistry, director at Godrej International Ltd., said Nov. 29.
?Producers tried to boost exports after prices gained and shipments will remain high in December? as companies must meet contracts, said Derom Bangun, chairman of the Indonesian Palm Oil Board. He forecasts output of 2.2 million tons in December. That brings the total for the year to 26.45 million tons when added to the number in the Bloomberg surveys.
Prices Climb
Futures advanced 5.4 percent this year to 2,570 ringgit ($793) a ton on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives today after reaching 2,692 ringgit on Nov. 22, the highest since September 2012. Palm may average 2,625 ringgit a ton in the second quarter, Rabobank International estimates.
India, the biggest buyer, imported 550,663 tons in November from 534,556 tons a year earlier, according to the Solvent Extractors? Association of India. Purchases by China, the second-biggest importer, would reach 550,000 tons in December after 500,000 tons in November, a survey showed last week.
While the Indonesian association doesn?t publish inventory and output data, it may release export figures this week. The changes in output and reserves are derived from earlier surveys.
The figure for output in 2013 compares with Bangun?s Nov. 29 estimate of 26.2 million tons. Production will be 26.5 million tons this year from 27 million tons in 2012, according to the median of five grower estimates compiled by Bloomberg last month. The U.S. Department of Agriculture predicts a crop of 28.5 million tons.
Biodiesel Demand
Reserves probably rose 2.9 percent to 2.1 million tons in November from a month earlier and may decline to 2 million tons by the end of the year, according to estimates from four producers and refiners.
Supplies will shrink as the country increases the use of palm-based biodiesel, said Sahat Sinaga, executive director at the Indonesian Vegetable Oil Industry Association, who forecasts that exports and reserves may drop to 1.7 million tons and 1.5 million tons in December.
Indonesia raised in September the amount of palm-derived biodiesel that producers must blend into subsidized fuel to 10 percent from 7.5 percent. The requirement will be extended to non-subsidized fuel and industrial users in January and power plants will be obliged to use supply with a 20 percent blend.
A third of output may be used in fuel in one or two years if the government is consistent in applying the policy, Mahendra Siregar, head of the Investment Coordinating Board, said last month. About 3 percent of the crop is used as fuel now, according to the Indonesian Biofuels Producers Association.
Yield Gains
Global biofuel demand may expand on larger mandates from Southeast Asia to South America and boost vegetable oil prices, according to Mistry, who expects palm oil production in Indonesia to rebound to 30.5 million tons in 2014.
Output will recover next year to 29.5 million tons as yields increase and new areas mature, Bangun said last month. Exports will be about 18 million tons in 2014 and may drop significantly in the next few years as more supplies are used for biodiesel output.
?Undoubtedly, biodiesel programs are among the strongest bullish drivers for palm prices in 2014,? Rabobank analysts led by Luke Chandler in Sydney, said in a report e-mailed last week. ?Delays in implementing these mandates and a decline in crude oil prices could dampen the impact of these programs and reduce bullishness,? said the bank.

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I'm sure the development below will have significant impact on the prospect of Renuka Sugar which Wilmar is known to be negotiating for a significant stake.

PUBLISHED JANUARY 16, 2014
India undecided on incentives for raw sugar exports
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[NEW DELHI] India has failed to approve a scheme to promote raw sugar output for export as ministers remained split on Thursday over how best to help mills, trade and government officials said.
Despite sitting on huge stocks of refined, or white, sugar, a global glut has made it difficult for mills in India - the world's second-biggest sugar producer - to export that variety. Indian mills traditionally sell little raw sugar abroad.
A rise in sugar refining capacity in Asia and Africa has now given India an opportunity to export raws.
But a group of ministers, at a meeting on Thursday, ended without agreement on any of three likely incentives to boost output and exports.

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Repost from Blumont track. If Quah Su-Ling wins, then she will be around and more of the her style continues and IPCO will remain difficult to predict its future since it constantly tries to invest aggressively rather than concentrate on growing its core businesses of its subsidiaries. The financial performance will remain volatile due to the recognition of fair value accounting for its investment instruments.

On the other hand, if she loses the case, she may have to raise the money to settle the amount payable which may be the catalyst for her to bow out and we may see a change in hands among the management level. That may offer a fresh angle and hope of management reshuffle that will give a new lease of live and potentially positive change to be expected.

Source: Business Times (Published 16.1.14)

Interactive Brokers suing Ipco CEO and clients for $79m in losses
IPCO International chief executive Quah Su-Ling, who is among eight clients sued in High Court over $79 million in losses sustained by Interactive Brokers (IB) in the wake of the penny stock crash, has alleged the US online brokerage was involved in a " commission-generating scheme" .

According to court documents inspected by The Business Times, Ms Quah, who is seeking to unfreeze nearly $15 million in assets belonging to her and her company Sun Spirit Group, said she does not recall signing the broker's account-opening documents or completing any forms.

The large-volume trades in the shares of Asiasons Capital, Blumont Group and LionGold Corp from her account and that of Sun Spirit's happened because Ken Tai, owner of Algo Capital and her financial advisor, had exceeded his authority over the accounts, she said.

She was rebutting allegations that she may have been involved in an " intricate pump-and-dump scheme to artificially generate trading volume" in the stock trio and to drive up their share prices before they crashed and wiped out over $8 billion in value.

In arbitration proceedings against her, the British Virgin Islands-incorporated Sun Spirit and eight other individuals and entities to recover $79 million in unpaid margin loans, Interactive Brokers flagged " suspicious trading activities through the defendants' accounts" made by Algo Capital. A hearing in relation to the freezing order was held last Friday.BT understands that judgment was reserved.

The broker alleged: " The unusual trading pattern employed by (Algo), which involved buying and selling the same stock in the same account on the same day at the same price, or closing out a large amount of shares in the morning, then repurchasing those shares in smaller lots throughout the day at set intervals, ... (gave) the market the appearance that the stocks were more heavily traded than they were.

" For instance, Algo often traded substantial portions of the volume of total daily trades in LionGold shares and even exceeded 80 per cent of the total trading volume on certain days. Similarly, for Asiasons shares, Algo's trading volume was as much as 67 per cent on some days."

But Ms Quah, in her affidavit, said Mr Tai had purportedly told her that it was the broker that had " placed pressure on him to maintain his high-volume trading" .

" Despite the fact that Ken Tai had been trading large volumes of shares in the companies for an entire year (from August 2012 to October 2013), Interactive Brokers did not see fit to flag or exercise its rights to suspend or freeze Sun Spirit's or my accounts in light of what they now allege as 'suspicious activity'."

Between October 2012 and last Oct 4, the broker allegedly made commissions amounting to $776,152 on trades done in her account, and $177,981 on Sun Spirit's account, she said.

She also claimed the broker may have violated the Securities and Futures Act by offering margin-trading services to Singapore residents in respect of SGX-listed stocks without the requisite licence from the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS), and was in breach of its own internal policy.

But Interactive Brokers, represented by Senior Counsel Harpreet Singh of Cavenagh Law, said Ms Quah has not produced any credible evidence to support her claims.

Nor has she explained why Mr Tai would " gratuitously implicate" himself by admitting he was in a commission-generating scheme to defraud the defendants, it said in court documents.

IB said it is " completely unaffiliated with the advisers and/or customers who trade on its platform and in no way manages or supervises customer trading or offers any input in the trading" .

" It is highly improbable that a sophisticated and experienced businesswoman and investor would be so trusting of Mr Tai. ... The more plausible explanation is the defendants, all of whom were interrelated and had connections with (LionGold, Asiasons and Blumont), were fully aware of Mr Tai's actions."

In challenging Ms Quah's claims as to why she did not disclose her relationship with the other defendants, the broker said she must be " intimately aware that most brokerages would impose higher-margin requirements on customers who disclose they are insiders of a stock they are trading, or that they hold a large position in that stock, either individually or acting in concert with others."

" If there was anyone trying to circumvent the need to obtain a licence from the MAS, it would be Ms Quah and Ipco, who had incorporated Sun Spirit on the other side of the world, and then used it for investment in the (three companies') shares through its account with Interactive Brokers."

On why Ms Quah and Sun Spirit could have been involved in such unusual trading activities and yet suffered huge losses, the broker said: " They may have expected their scheme to continue to be successful, or believe that they could have sold off their positions for large gains before the share prices collapsed, but had simply waited too long."

gleong@sph.com.sg

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«Top News

Singapore shares ease, pressured by commodity firms
Thu Jan 16, 2014 5:56am GMT

Singapore, Jan 16 (Reuters) - Singapore shares edged down on Thursday despite robust U.S. data and upbeat earnings from Bank of America, while stocks of commodities firms fell on concerns about changing supply and demand dynamics.

With the world's two largest economies in the midst of change, Maybank predicted that China's rebalancing of its economic growth model and the U.S. Federal Reserve stimulus tapering would affect the supply-and-demand dynamics of the commodity trading industry.

"Against a fluid and changing backdrop, we value earnings visibility above growth outlook," Maybank said in a research note. "We prefer companies with clear catalysts and less likelihood of an earnings miss."

Shares of Wilmar International Ltd fell 0.6 percent to S$3.25, while Noble Group Ltd and Olam International Ltd were down 0.5 percent to S$1.03 and 0.6 percent to S$1.54 respectively.

Wilmar was Maybank's top sector pick with a "buy" rating and a target price of S$4.30, while Noble and Olam were both rated "hold".

Bank of America Corp, the second-largest U.S. bank, showed signs of recovery after its quarterly profit surged by nearly $3 billion as revenue increased and mortgage losses plunged.

The benchmark Straits Times Index edged down 0.1 percent to 3,140.42 points by 0545 GMT, while the MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan gained 0.1 percent.

Singapore telecommunications firm StarHub Ltd was the worst performer on the index, falling as much as 1.7 percent to a nearly one-month low at S$4.15, trading at 1.5 times its average 30-day full-day volume.

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Retailers' sales return to growth in southern Europe
Reuters - 14 mins ago

By James Davey and Dominique Vidalon

LONDON/PARIS (Reuters) - Sales at European retailers Carrefour (PAR:CA), Metro (GER:MEO) and Dixons Retail (LSE:DXNS) have returned to growth in southern Europe as consumers start spending again after years of economic turmoil, austerity and job losses.

Europe's biggest retailer Carrefour said its sales in Spain grew in the fourth quarter for the first time since 2008, while French hypermarkets improved further, though at a slower pace than in the previous quarter.

Dixons, the continent's No. 2 electricals retailer, saw sales at its Greek business, Kotsovolos, rise 3 percent in the November 1-January 4 period, driven by its wholesale business. However, sales at retail stores that have been open for more than a year fell 8 percent.

"It's still quite tough in Greece and the market is still under pressure. We are beginning to see some evidence that it is flattening out," Chief Executive Sebastian James told reporters. "That business is going to come right."

The euro zone debt crisis began in Greece in 2010, forcing Athens to take a bailout under which the European Union and IMF demanded deep budget cuts, sending unemployment soaring and provoking violent protests. As speculation swirled in 2012 that Greece could abandon the euro, Dixons stockpiled security shutters to protect its nearly 100 stores in the country.

However, recent data suggests the economy is on the brink of a tentative recovery after a six-year recession, boosted by a rebound in tourism and rising investment and exports.

Dixons, which has been benefiting from strong demand for tablet computers, has sold off units in Turkey and Italy, but plans to stick with Greece as it is the market leader there, although the country accounts for a small part of group sales.

Shares in the British-based group were down about 4 percent by 1118 GMT after it gave a cautious outlook for the rest of the year, while Carrefour dipped 3 percent after the French retailer reported slowing growth in Brazil, its second-biggest market.

IMPROVING MOOD

Euro zone economic sentiment rose more than expected in December, as the mood improved in Spain and Italy more than in Germany and France, while industrial production rose in November at its fastest pace in nearly four years.

The southern periphery, where the crisis erased tens of thousands of jobs, saw some improvement as Spain's output returned to growth and Portugal's production rose 1.5 percent.

Metro AG (GER:MEO), Europe's fourth-biggest retailer, said on Monday sales had grown slightly at its cash and carry businesses in Spain and Italy although like-for-like sales fell in its home market Germany.

Carrefour said quarterly sales rose 0.2 percent like-for-like in its third-largest market Spain, but the economic climate was still tough in Italy where they were down 5.9 percent.

Retailers across Europe have been struggling as shoppers' disposable income has been squeezed by subdued wage growth and the government austerity measures.

Carrefour has also been hurt by reliance on the hypermarket format it pioneered, as time-pressed customers shop more locally and online, and buy non-food goods from specialists.

On Tuesday, Carrefour's smaller French rival Casino (CASP.PA) said it expected sales at its domestic hypermarkets to return to growth in the next six months as it would reap the full benefits of earlier price cuts.

However, grocer Ahold (AHLN.AS) reported a steeper-than-expected decline in fourth-quarter sales as the U.S. food market contracted and customers spent less in its Dutch home market, dragging its shares down 3.5 percent.

(Writing by Emma Thomasson editing by David Stamp)

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Retailers' sales return to growth in southern Europe
Reuters - 14 mins ago

By James Davey and Dominique Vidalon

LONDON/PARIS (Reuters) - Sales at European retailers Carrefour (PAR:CA), Metro (GER:MEO) and Dixons Retail (LSE:DXNS) have returned to growth in southern Europe as consumers start spending again after years of economic turmoil, austerity and job losses.

Europe's biggest retailer Carrefour said its sales in Spain grew in the fourth quarter for the first time since 2008, while French hypermarkets improved further, though at a slower pace than in the previous quarter.

Dixons, the continent's No. 2 electricals retailer, saw sales at its Greek business, Kotsovolos, rise 3 percent in the November 1-January 4 period, driven by its wholesale business. However, sales at retail stores that have been open for more than a year fell 8 percent.

"It's still quite tough in Greece and the market is still under pressure. We are beginning to see some evidence that it is flattening out," Chief Executive Sebastian James told reporters. "That business is going to come right."

The euro zone debt crisis began in Greece in 2010, forcing Athens to take a bailout under which the European Union and IMF demanded deep budget cuts, sending unemployment soaring and provoking violent protests. As speculation swirled in 2012 that Greece could abandon the euro, Dixons stockpiled security shutters to protect its nearly 100 stores in the country.

However, recent data suggests the economy is on the brink of a tentative recovery after a six-year recession, boosted by a rebound in tourism and rising investment and exports.

Dixons, which has been benefiting from strong demand for tablet computers, has sold off units in Turkey and Italy, but plans to stick with Greece as it is the market leader there, although the country accounts for a small part of group sales.

Shares in the British-based group were down about 4 percent by 1118 GMT after it gave a cautious outlook for the rest of the year, while Carrefour dipped 3 percent after the French retailer reported slowing growth in Brazil, its second-biggest market.

IMPROVING MOOD

Euro zone economic sentiment rose more than expected in December, as the mood improved in Spain and Italy more than in Germany and France, while industrial production rose in November at its fastest pace in nearly four years.

The southern periphery, where the crisis erased tens of thousands of jobs, saw some improvement as Spain's output returned to growth and Portugal's production rose 1.5 percent.

Metro AG (GER:MEO), Europe's fourth-biggest retailer, said on Monday sales had grown slightly at its cash and carry businesses in Spain and Italy although like-for-like sales fell in its home market Germany.

Carrefour said quarterly sales rose 0.2 percent like-for-like in its third-largest market Spain, but the economic climate was still tough in Italy where they were down 5.9 percent.

Retailers across Europe have been struggling as shoppers' disposable income has been squeezed by subdued wage growth and the government austerity measures.

Carrefour has also been hurt by reliance on the hypermarket format it pioneered, as time-pressed customers shop more locally and online, and buy non-food goods from specialists.

On Tuesday, Carrefour's smaller French rival Casino (CASP.PA) said it expected sales at its domestic hypermarkets to return to growth in the next six months as it would reap the full benefits of earlier price cuts.

However, grocer Ahold (AHLN.AS) reported a steeper-than-expected decline in fourth-quarter sales as the U.S. food market contracted and customers spent less in its Dutch home market, dragging its shares down 3.5 percent.

(Writing by Emma Thomasson editing by David Stamp)

x 0

Not much more to head south when it will have to head north again.

gold123 ( Date: 16-Jan-2014 08:04) Posted:

This counter is heading south

New123 ( Date: 08-Jan-2014 10:55) Posted:

Started to move up. Looking gd to clear $1.11and go higher.

http://sporeonlines.blogspot.sg/2014/01/nol.html

x 0

Don't short this stock. The return, if any will not be worth the risk

gold123 ( Date: 16-Jan-2014 08:14) Posted:

heading down

gold123 ( Date: 14-Jan-2014 16:28) Posted:

let's see if it is able to bounce off from 3.19 .

x 0

Commodity prices will recover with increased consumption as global economies recover. Freight rate will recover with improved global trade and hence more demand.

Lucky03 ( Date: 16-Jan-2014 07:26) Posted:

PUBLISHED JANUARY 16, 2014
World Bank projects smooth global recovery
Global GDP growth will strengthen from 2.4% in 2013 to 3.2% this year
BY ANTHONY ROWLEY IN TOKYOPRINT |EMAIL THIS ARTICLE

THE global economy, says the World Bank, is on course for a smooth recovery in 2014 as advanced economies that have healed from the wounds of the global financial crisis gain speed and pull along emerging economies that have slowed.
But things could turn out very differently, the Bank says in its latest Global Economic Prospects report published yesterday, if monetary "tapering" by the US Federal Reserve meets with "abrupt market adjustment". Then, emerging economies in Asia and elsewhere could suffer severe shocks.
The report takes the more benign outlook as its "baseline" scenario and suggests that global GDP growth will firm from 2.4 per cent in 2013 to 3.2 per cent this year, stabilising at 3.4 per cent and 3.5 per cent in 2015 and 2016, respectively.
For the first time in five years, said World Bank chief economist Kaushik Basu, "there are indications that a self-sustaining recovery has begun among high-income countries, suggesting they may join developing countries as an engine of growth in the global economy".

x 0

Commodity prices will recover with increased consumption as global economies recover.

PUBLISHED JANUARY 16, 2014
World Bank projects smooth global recovery
Global GDP growth will strengthen from 2.4% in 2013 to 3.2% this year
BY ANTHONY ROWLEY IN TOKYOPRINT |EMAIL THIS ARTICLE

THE global economy, says the World Bank, is on course for a smooth recovery in 2014 as advanced economies that have healed from the wounds of the global financial crisis gain speed and pull along emerging economies that have slowed.
But things could turn out very differently, the Bank says in its latest Global Economic Prospects report published yesterday, if monetary "tapering" by the US Federal Reserve meets with "abrupt market adjustment". Then, emerging economies in Asia and elsewhere could suffer severe shocks.
The report takes the more benign outlook as its "baseline" scenario and suggests that global GDP growth will firm from 2.4 per cent in 2013 to 3.2 per cent this year, stabilising at 3.4 per cent and 3.5 per cent in 2015 and 2016, respectively.
For the first time in five years, said World Bank chief economist Kaushik Basu, "there are indications that a self-sustaining recovery has begun among high-income countries, suggesting they may join developing countries as an engine of growth in the global economy".

x 0

PUBLISHED JANUARY 16, 2014
World Bank projects smooth global recovery
Global GDP growth will strengthen from 2.4% in 2013 to 3.2% this year
BY ANTHONY ROWLEY IN TOKYOPRINT |EMAIL THIS ARTICLE

THE global economy, says the World Bank, is on course for a smooth recovery in 2014 as advanced economies that have healed from the wounds of the global financial crisis gain speed and pull along emerging economies that have slowed.
But things could turn out very differently, the Bank says in its latest Global Economic Prospects report published yesterday, if monetary "tapering" by the US Federal Reserve meets with "abrupt market adjustment". Then, emerging economies in Asia and elsewhere could suffer severe shocks.
The report takes the more benign outlook as its "baseline" scenario and suggests that global GDP growth will firm from 2.4 per cent in 2013 to 3.2 per cent this year, stabilising at 3.4 per cent and 3.5 per cent in 2015 and 2016, respectively.
For the first time in five years, said World Bank chief economist Kaushik Basu, "there are indications that a self-sustaining recovery has begun among high-income countries, suggesting they may join developing countries as an engine of growth in the global economy".