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Latest Posts By Lucky03
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| 19-Jan-2014 16:15 |
Neptune Orient L Rg
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NOL
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That's why they sold their NOL building and to lease back to lower gearing.
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| 19-Jan-2014 10:15 |
Renaissance United
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Neglected, Illiquid, Undervalue, Recovery counter
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Manu Bhaskaran: Blowout global growth on the cards
Monday, 13 January 2014 © 2014 - The Edge Singapore |
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| 19-Jan-2014 10:14 |
Wilmar Intl
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Wilmar - Watch for a Strong Rally to Come!
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Manu Bhaskaran: Blowout global growth on the cards
Monday, 13 January 2014 © 2014 - The Edge Singapore |
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| 19-Jan-2014 10:13 |
Neptune Orient L Rg
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NOL
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Manu Bhaskaran: Blowout global growth on the cards
Monday, 13 January 2014 © 2014 - The Edge Singapore |
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| 19-Jan-2014 02:05 |
Neptune Orient L Rg
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NOL
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JOC ? Maritime News ? International Freight Shipping
P3, G6 to Spark Change in Trans-Atlantic Trade Bruce Barnard, Special Correspondent | Jan 16, 2014 10:20AM EST The trans-Atlantic, the mature granddad container trade lane where nothing much happens, is looking forward to a rare burst of excitement in 2014. That?s because it?s one of the three liner routes, along with the giant Asia-Europe and trans-Pacific trades, preparing for the planned launch of the P3 Network among the world?s three largest carriers ? Maersk Line, CMA CGM and Mediterranean Shipping Co. ? in the second quarter of the year. With the alliance awaiting regulatory approval and yet to publish details of its five new services, the trade got a taste of things to come with the news in early December that the G6 Alliance of APL, Hapag-Lloyd, Hyundai Merchant Marine, MOL, NYK Line and OOCL plans to expand on the Asia-Europe and Asia-east coast North America routes to the trans-Atlantic. Also, in early January came news that Hanjin Shipping will withdraw entirely from the trans-Atlantic, not even serving the market through slot-charters. For now, trading conditions are as calm as ever, with vessel capacity stable, traffic subdued and no larger ships being cascaded from the major east-west routes. Although cargo growth between northern Europe and the east coast of North America remains poor, carriers are still effectively managing vessel capacity, according to London-based consultant and research analyst Drewry. U.S.-Northern Europe containerized ocean trade from 2011 to 2015. Full-size image Westbound shipments from Europe totaled nearly 700,000 20-foot-equivalent units in the third quarter of 2013, up 3 percent from a year earlier, according to PIERS, the data division of JOC Group Inc. But the 3.7 percent growth in traffic in the first nine months of the year was down from 4.7 percent growth in the same period in 2012. Eastbound traffic totaled 484,395 TEUs in July-September period, up 4.3 percent year-over-year. Year-to-date eastbound volumes of nearly 1.5 million TEUs were up just 0.8 percent, according to PIERS data. PIERS expects solid westbound growth of 8.3 percent, to 2.9 million TEUs this year, but the eastbound trade likely will be flat at just more than 2 million TEUs. Spot freight rates have risen, in contrast to declines on other routes, driven by carriers? vessel capacity management and general rate increases. The spot rate for a 40-foot container from Rotterdam to New York had risen 14 percent between February and the end of September, while the eastbound rate jumped 17 percent over the same period. Trading conditions on the West Mediterranean-east coast North America route are a lot tougher, with capacity utilization slumping to just 40 percent on the eastbound leg in September. ?It?s not a nice place for carriers to be,? according to Drewry. Nevertheless, a quiet new year is in the cards, especially on the North Europe route, before the P3 shakes up the trade in the spring. ?Westbound, and to a lesser extent eastbound, freight rates will continue to rise over the winter season, providing sailing cancellations remain sensibly managed,? Drewry said. ?Only fine-tuning is necessary.? The P3 is sure to destabilize the trade, at least for a time, in large part because its three members control approximately 40 percent of the effective capacity between northern Europe and North America. The ships to be deployed on the new P3 services will be significantly bigger than those of its rivals, giving the P3 carriers economies of scale that the competition could not ignore. The announcement that the G6 plans to have its trans-Atlantic operation up and running by the second quarter of 2014 to coincide with the launch of the P3 foreshadows a feisty battle for market share through the second half of the year. That Hapag-Lloyd?s dominant 24 percent market share proved no obstacle to expanding the G6 to the trans-Atlantic only underscored the potent threat of the P3 to smaller carriers. The G6 plans to deploy 42 ships on five trans-Atlantic services, including two pendulum services calling at 25 ports in the U.S., Canada, Panama, Mexico, the Netherlands, the U.K., France, Belgium and Germany. The member carriers will continue to market their services individually. The G6 move will intensify pressure on independent operators on the route and the CKYH Alliance of Cosco, ?K? Line, Yang Ming and Hanjin Shipping, which risk between squeezed in a battle for cargo between the P3 and G6 carriers. ?Due to lackluster cargo growth and unexciting prospects ahead, little change to ocean carrier services is likely before the second quarter of 2014,? Drewry said. But all bets are off in the spring when the world?s leading carriers prepare to inject a little long overdue excitement on the Atlantic. Contact Bruce Barnard at brucebarnard@hotmail.com. Article JOC Economist: Growth in US Containerized Imports to Rise in 2014 |
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| 19-Jan-2014 01:53 |
Neptune Orient L Rg
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NOL
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Seven Container Lines to Cooperate on Intra-Asia Service
JOC Staff | Jan 15, 2014 3:09PM EST As part of a slot sharing agreement, seven container lines will cooperate on three existing Far East-to-Indian subcontinent services, effective in February 2014. |
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| 19-Jan-2014 01:49 |
Neptune Orient L Rg
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NOL
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JOC Economist: Growth in US Containerized Imports to Rise in 2014
Bill Mongelluzzo, Senior Editor | Jan 17, 2014 3:37PM EST U.S. containerized imports are projected to increase 6 percent in 2014, up from 3.5 percent growth in 2013, according to Journal of Commerce economist Mario Moreno. |
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| 19-Jan-2014 01:20 |
Neptune Orient L Rg
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NOL
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Drewry?s Eastbound Trans-Pacific Rate Rises
JOC Staff | Jan 15, 2014 3:38PM EST The Drewry benchmark rate for shipping from Hong Kong to Los Angeles saw its first upward movement after three weeks at the same rate. |
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| 19-Jan-2014 01:18 |
Neptune Orient L Rg
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NOL
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JOC ? Maritime News ? Trade Lanes ? Trans-Pacific
SCFI: Shanghai-to-US Spot Rates Up for a Second Week JOC Staff | Jan 10, 2014 2:56PM EST Spot container rates from Asia to the U.S. East and West coasts measured by the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index increased in the week ending Jan. 10, the second straight week of climbing rates and the third in the past four weeks.
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| 19-Jan-2014 01:12 |
Neptune Orient L Rg
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NOL
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IHS Maritime.
Freight rates to rise in 2014 A survey of shipping sentiment provides a good indication that 2014 will see an upturn in freight rates, says Chief Maritime Analyst Richard Clayton Shipping sentiment is more positive as the dreadful year 2013 gives way to better hopes for 2014, and the indications are that those maritime companies still standing after five years of anguish will soon emerge from their hideaways to invest and grow. So says the survey of shipping confidence for the three months to November 2013 from Moore Stephens, the accountant and shipping adviser. Richard Greiner, a partner in the company, commented that it is now 15 months since a decline in shipping confidence was recorded. Respondents had stopped blaming the global economic and political situation and have turned their attention to ?problems where they can realistically contribute towards helping to find a solution?, he said. Operating costs are still expected to rise, crew wages are steadily increasing, the cost of regulatory compliance is becoming a major concern, and P&I premiums are growing. ?These problems will not go away,? believes Greiner, ?but the prospect of being able to fund them properly is brighter now than at any time in the last five years.? With improved prospects for dry bulk and tankers, and an expectation that container shipping will at least remain stable, there should be enough left in the kitty to invest. It has been a long time since that was the year-end sign-off. A full 56% of the overall survey anticipated rate increases in the dry bulk sector, the highest level since the survey began in May 2008. Managers and owners seem particularly keen to talk the market up, and even charterers and brokers expected higher rates in 2014. This positive sentiment was reflected in Europe, Asia Pacific and North America, prompting one respondent to note that the dry market was coming into balance. ?Everything looks very positive for those owners who have the right fleet profile and minimal counter-party risk,? he offered. Sentiment was a little more measured in respect of the tanker market. Owners want to believe in the golden year ahead, with 52% anticipating higher rates, however both managers and brokers erred on the side of caution, and charterers spoiled the celebration as 43% of them saw rates falling next year. Significantly, more than four-fifths of North American respondents saw higher tanker rates ahead, but only 46% in Asia and merely 40% in Europe. Given the appetite for tanker investment in North America in 2H13, this might reflect a desire for increased rates rather than a solid platform for growth. North Americans, Europeans and Asians all selected demand trends as the factor most affecting performance for ship owners in 2014. However, access to finance in North America relegated finance costs below competition and tonnage supply in that key region, while European and Asian respondents still see finance for their projects as a key factor affecting performance. Completing the round-up of the three major sectors of the industry, North American respondents are bullish about prospects for 2014, while Europeans are pessimistic and Asians uncertain. Freight rates to rise in 2014 appeared as ?Onwards and upwards? in IHS Maritime?s Fairplay magazine on 2 January 2014. Richard Clayton can be followed on Twitter @rjbclayton For more maritime insight, see http://www.ihsmaritime360.com |
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| 18-Jan-2014 22:43 |
Wilmar Intl
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Wilmar - Watch for a Strong Rally to Come!
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Kenanga Research analyst Alan Lim said the inventory uptrend should have ended, which bodes well for CPO prices. The January inventory is expected to decline by 2% month-on-month to 1.95 million tonnes.
?On the supply side, we have assumed a 16% decline month-on-month to 1.4 million tonnes in line with the seasonal trend. On the demand side, exports should slip 15% to 1.28 million tonnes due to the very cold winter in the northern hemisphere, as palm oil is used less in cold temperatures. ?Overall, the expected first inventory downtick in five months would be positive for CPO prices.? Lim pointed out that Malaysia?s palm oil import from Indonesia last December remained very low at 24,574 tonnes, or 72% lower year-on-year, a sign that Indonesia was committed in implementing its biodiesel plan. In the long run, the biodiesel plan, which has spurred higher domestic palm oil usage, thus curbing its export and lessening the export competition with Malaysia, is positive to CPO prices and benefits both countries. To that, Public Invest Research sector analyst Chong Hoe Leong concurred: ?We see a better CPO outlook this year, premised on better domestic biodiesel consumption in Indonesia and Malaysia, which would help keep inventories at a comfortable level.? Chong believes in a stronger CPO price performance in the first half due to tight inventories before weakening slightly in the second. ?Our 2014 CPO price forecast is RM2,750 per tonne.? Palm oil inventories closed at 1.98 million tonnes for 2013, the lowest level since 2010, while CPO prices averaged at RM2,435 per tonne in 2013, 17% lower compared with RM2,935 per tonne in 2012. Hwang-DBS Vickers Research also believes that investors should wait for value to emerge within the plantation sector, although it is a good time to seek out laggard palm oil counters. ?We believe palm oil prices and regional plantation stocks remain in correction mode. However, in our view, palm oil prices may be close to bottoming.? |
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| 18-Jan-2014 22:37 |
Wilmar Intl
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Wilmar - Watch for a Strong Rally to Come!
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This is probably one of the more objective and factual report.
Site Last Updated 6:01 pm, Saturday seeds.theborneopost.com Home - Business CPO price rally to cool following 1Q14 Posted on December 30, 2013, Monday EXPECTED TO DECLINE: However, as per seasonality in 1Q, CPO production is expected to decline and prices might trend towards the RM2,800 per mt levels as inventories dip to 1.7 million mt. ? Reuters photo KUCHING: While crude palm oil (CPO) prices are expected to be buoyant going into 2014, the price rally is likely to cool following the first quarter of 2014 (1Q14) as the oilseed industry is expected to be well supplied. According to Alliance Research Sdn Bhd (Alliance Research), regarding CPO prices next year, as inventories have come off to more favourable levels over the course of 2013 and will likely close the year around two million mt, compared to 2.63 million mt at end 2012, the prices are expected to stay fairly buoyant going into 1Q14. However, as per seasonality in 1Q, CPO production is expected to decline and prices might trend towards the RM2,800 per mt levels as inventories dip to 1.7 million mt. ?That said, we do not expect CPO prices to trend into the RM2,800-3,000mt range but instead taper back down as the export scenario going into 2014 is weak,? Alliance Research said. The soybean market and other competing oils like rape seed oil and sun oil are forecasted to be well supplied in 2014 as weather has been favourable for crops. This will reduce overall dependence on palm oil in 2014. ?Coupled with our overall higher palm oil production outlook going forward, this development will be price negative,? it added. However, it still sees average prices in 2014 to be higher than 2013 as biodiesel production could help lend support to prices and keep inventories manageable. It should be noted that biodiesel mandates, if fully executed, will take up to four million mt out of Malaysian (up to one million mt) and Indonesian (up to three million mt) CPO inventories. ?Malaysia hopes to have a full B5 rollout by July 2014, and Indonesia is planning to step up to B10 from B7.5,? the research house highlighted. Generally, 2013 has been a challenging year for the plantation industry, with CPO prices averaging below RM2,400 per metric tonne (mt) up to end November 2013. ?Sluggish prices during the year were largely due to a record high inventory at end December 2012 which took time to clear as production was exceptionally strong in 1H13, and sluggish exports which, although higher year on year (y-o-y), did not manage to keep up with the strong production,? the research house noted. In fact, it was the stronger domestic consumption during the year which helped to bring inventories to a low of 1.65 million mt in July. However, since July, the weaker exports have pushed inventories back up to 1.98 million mt at as end November 2013. Overall, Alliance Research goes into 2014 with a ?neutral? stance on the sector despite that it expects CPO prices to average roughly RM200 per mt higher than 2013 at RM2,600 per mt. ?Upward re-rating catalysts to our ?neutral? call would be if CPO prices surprise on the upside. ?This could be due to potential weather threats emerging in 2014, shortage in competing oilseeds, regulatory changes which are in favour of palm oil consumption, and a severe tree stress phenomenon like that of 2010 where industry wide production declined,? it noted. Read more: http://www.theborneopost.com/2013/12/30/cpo-price-rally-to-cool-following-1q14/#ixzz2qlDMbMy3 |
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| 18-Jan-2014 22:25 |
Wilmar Intl
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Wilmar - Watch for a Strong Rally to Come!
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Report: Palm oil producers to enjoy higher selling price
December 23, 2013 by: The Malaysian Reserve by Sathish Govind PETALING JAYA: Malaysian palm oil producers are expected to enjoy higher selling price for their palm products, lower fertiliser costs and slower rise in labour costs next year, CIMB Investment Bank Bhd said in its research report ?Navigating Malaysia 2014?. The investment bank, in a report dated Dec 10, said the successful execution of the higher biodiesel mandate in Indonesia and firmer crude oil prices (CPO) hold the key to further rise in CPO price. CIMB forecast the average market price of CPO to rise by 12% in 2014 to US$950 (RM3,122) per tonne, fuelled by lower palm oil stockpiles, higher biodiesel demand from Malaysia and Indonesia as well strong consumption due to an improving global economy. The investment bank said CPO price is also expected to rise due to expectations of a weaker ringgit against the greenback. It said planters are also set to enjoy lower fertiliser costs following the break-up of the cartel for potash, a key fertiliser input for estates. ?Since the cartel broke up, the average potash price has fallen 23% year-on-year (YoY) to US$307 per tonne in third-quarter (3Q) 2013.? CIMB believes Indonesia plans to raise its biodiesel mandate to 10% starting Jan 1, 2014. ?This has led Pertamina to call for tender for 6.6 million km of biodiesel for 2014 and 2015. ?If successfully executed, it could boost near-term CPO prices if the incremental palm oil supply is not sufficient to cover the sudden spike in demand to meet the higher biodiesel blend,? the report said. CIMB expects to see major changes in the corporate structure of several plantation companies. ?Felda Global Ventures Holdings Bhd will be able to fully consolidate the earnings of its downstream businesses when it completes the takeover of Felda Holdings Bhd,? slated by end of this year. IOI Corp Bhd will become a pure CPO play when its proposal to demerge and separately list property arm is completed sometime in January 2014. The demerger exercises which will unlock the value of its property unit and allow investors to participate directly into its core business. CIMB has target price of RM5.96 for the stock. On Sime Darby Bhd, CIMB said it offers the lowest price to earning multiple among the key-big planters in Malaysia and has indicated its interest in listing its Indonesia plantation assets to grow its businesses. However CIMB said the positives about Sime?s plantations business are offset by the more challenging operating environment facing its non-plantation businesses. The target price for the stock is RM10.13. This content is provided by FMT content provider The Malaysian Reserve |
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| 18-Jan-2014 20:57 |
Wilmar Intl
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Wilmar - Watch for a Strong Rally to Come!
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Saturday, January 18, 2014, 08.16 PM RSS MOBILE EMAIL ALERT WIDGET DIGITAL EDITION Home Today's Paper IPO Watch Market Data Industries News List Most Popular EReports Blogs Subscription Archive Email Us Feedback Home » ourpick Upbeat outlook on CPO prices Published: 2014/01/14 CURRENCY CONVERTER LARGER TYPE SMALLER TYPE TOOLS DICTIONARY : THESAURUS : BETTER DAYS AHEAD: RHB Research says easing inventory, production weakness and surging demand bode well for sector RHB Research Institute is positive on crude palm oil (CPO) prices as Malaysia?s palm oil stockpile only rose marginally to 1.9 million tonnes in December last year, which is likely to be the seasonal peak and could see inventory easing in the months ahead ? providing a lift for prices. In its research report, RHB Research said Malaysia?s palm oil inventory ended at 1.9 million tonnes last year, which is sharply lower vis-à-vis end-2012 as export growth outstripped production growth and local consumption surged during the year. ?Prices have softened and palm oil prices have retraced in the past two weeks as Indonesia?s mandatory biodiesel programme encountered hiccups due to pricing issues with Pertamina (Indonesia?s national oil and gas company), only managing to secure 18 per cent of the three million tonnes of biodiesel supply that is required,? RHB Research said in giving the sector an ?overweight? recommendation. Indonesia and Malaysia are the world?s top two oil palm producers. It said production weakness was more apparent in the second quarter and it believes that palm oil prices will strengthen progressively throughout this year due to lacklustre production in Indonesia, as a result of rainfall deficit over the past two years. ?We believe more price strength will be seen in the second quarter as production weakness becomes more apparent, and the weak first-quarter production is likely to be perceived as seasonal in nature.? It added that India?s import tax for refined edible oil from 7.5 per cent to 10 per cent will have a neutral impact and will only cause a switch from refined to crude products. Tax for crude edible oil has remained unchanged. ?We view the price pullback as temporary and as providing a buying opportunity. ?The main stumbling block for palm oil prices to charge higher at this point in time is the relatively narrow discount to soyabean oil at US$65 per tonne (RM211.9). On the flipside, this also means there is a US$65 upside for palm oil prices before it comes to parity against soyabean oil price. As we have seen in 2009 and 2010, poor palm oil production will lead to parity price against soyabean oil. |
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| 18-Jan-2014 15:37 |
Wilmar Intl
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Wilmar - Watch for a Strong Rally to Come!
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Ok. Will track CPO price at this site http://www.palmoilhq.com/palm-oil-prices/
Last traded price was RM$2528 and US$766. If last year Jan also see prices depressed, then it may be seasonal and based on trend, 2013 was better than 2012. Let's see 2014. The weather has been rather erratic and getting worst with US experiencing near North Pole temperature this winter so harvest can be quite unpredictable.
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| 18-Jan-2014 15:33 |
Wilmar Intl
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Wilmar - Watch for a Strong Rally to Come!
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| 18-Jan-2014 13:11 |
Wilmar Intl
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Wilmar - Watch for a Strong Rally to Come!
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Actually, if capital permits, it is a better time to make acquisition of those with long term potential when times is not so good than when the economy recovery is firmly in place and assess are relatively much more expensive.
Wilmar?s R&D work takes place in China, Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, India, Vietnam, Russia and Germany. Our R&D efforts aim to improve current processing technology and products, develop green and white biotechnology, and create new product concepts that support healthy living.
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| 18-Jan-2014 13:03 |
Wilmar Intl
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Wilmar - Watch for a Strong Rally to Come!
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I'm looking at whether this is a long mid term investment - about a year. | ||||
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| 18-Jan-2014 11:32 |
Wilmar Intl
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Wilmar - Watch for a Strong Rally to Come!
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Most clean energy are more costly and hence not economically competitive and compelling. The push factor is environmental protection that leaves some country with no choice for to push for its early adoption. You are right that the limit has been set at 10% max in terms of mix so far. Stil a potentially very sizable market. Will have to leave to the scientist to overcome the corrosive problem but at least some countries including Indonesia is setting the standard through legislation. After all, a car is not for a lifetime. In Spore context, if the corrosive effect is only visible longer term than 10 yrs, impact may not be as significant ? Many dealers are bringing in diesel powered models.
Brazil led the world in sugarcane production and hence Wilmar interest in Renuka in India that has acquired asset in Brazil for sugar production may be a very strategic initiative.
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| 18-Jan-2014 10:58 |
Wilmar Intl
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Wilmar - Watch for a Strong Rally to Come!
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Soybean, sugar and palm oil are ingredients for biofuel. Will Wilmar turn into biofuel business big time ?
Bioenergy in China China has set the goal of attaining one percent of its renewable energy generation through bioenergy in 2020. The development of bioenergy in China is needed to meet the rising energy demand.[according to whom?] Several institutions are involved in this development, most notably the Asian Development Bank and China's Ministry of Agriculture. There is also an added incentive to develop the bioenergy sector which is to increase the development of the rural agricultural sector. As of 2005, bioenergy use has reached more than 20 million households in the rural areas, with methane gas as the main biofuel. Also more than 4000 bioenergy facilities produce 8 billion cubic metres every year of methane gas. By 2006 20% of "gasoline" consumed was actually a 10% ethanol-gasoline blend. (People's Daily Online) As of 2010, electricity generation by bioenergy is expected to reach 5 GW, and 30 GW by 2020. The annual use of methane gas is expected to be 19 cubic kilometers by 2010, and 40 cubic kilometers by 2020. China is the world's third-largest producer of ethanol, after Brazil and the United States.(RFA) Although only 0.71% of the country's grain yield (3.366 million tons of grain) in 2006 was used for production of ethanol, concern has been expressed over potential conflicts between demands for food and fuel, as crop prices rose in late 2006.[1] |
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