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shorting reduce quite significantly today, yesterday is 893lots, today is only 456lots.
oldflyingfox ( Date: 22-May-2013 15:07) Posted:
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Yes, got it! I suspect that shorties are covering positions due to Olam sudden surge today. |
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For short terms wise, market is just a psychological (technical take precident) game, for long terms wise, it is more a fundamental market. It is good to have shortest around as it pervent the market from getting overhot prematurely.
But please don't call me expert, as I am not. I am just more deligent in doing my homework or more deligent in sharing my views.
Cheers.
ynnek1267 ( Date: 16-May-2013 19:30) Posted:
Whatever lah. See tomorrow up or down loh. Wahahahaha! !!!!
cheongsl ( Date: 16-May-2013 18:57) Posted:
Don't really agreed with the reasoning.
Over capacity?? In the free economy, their is always supply and demand fluctuation, except in those monopolise business. How do you justified that it is overcapacity?
There is always some supplier that is willing to go for lower earning, but the issue is cut cost does it equal to same quality? It is only a matter of buyers whether they were willing to get lower graded product, or look for quality. Like what Mr Ren mention he will not accept any business that is lossing money, not even strategy reason. That is why Yang still manage to keep the profit margin high with the exploration of other means of getting in income.
The life span of vessel is very long, you can continue to operate even 50years later, but what costly will be the maintainance, to get the inspection certificate for continue to operation, the overhaul to meet the inspection, the insurance for the vessel actually rise more after 10years of life, thus it become more and more costly to maintain with years increase |
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Collect my share at 10.5cts
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Don't really agreed with the reasoning.
Over capacity?? In the free economy, their is always supply and demand fluctuation, except in those monopolise business. How do you justified that it is overcapacity?
There is always some supplier that is willing to go for lower earning, but the issue is cut cost does it equal to same quality? It is only a matter of buyers whether they were willing to get lower graded product, or look for quality. Like what Mr Ren mention he will not accept any business that is lossing money, not even strategy reason. That is why Yang still manage to keep the profit margin high with the exploration of other means of getting in income.
The life span of vessel is very long, you can continue to operate even 50years later, but what costly will be the maintainance, to get the inspection certificate for continue to operation, the overhaul to meet the inspection, the insurance for the vessel actually rise more after 10years of life, thus it become more and more costly to maintain with years increase.
ynnek1267 ( Date: 16-May-2013 14:06) Posted:
This industry will never recover due to over capacity, no matter on built vessels in the market or available building capacity in the shipyards in china, korea, japan, vietnam, philipines, indonesia, malaysia, brazil, middle east and etc. The negotiation power is on buyers side, a tender of new vessels can go around to all these countries shipyards for cutting the built cost and profit margin will be very low. The life span of a vessel is 20 years and above, this is not your mobile phone which is less than 2 years.
Flyordie ( Date: 16-May-2013 12:58) Posted:
| Haha, although u are shorting and I am longing. But we have 1 common purpose. To win some $. We are friend not enemy. Friend should console each other when 1 of them is down. But nit pour the salt onto dead frog. I love u, bro ynne |
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His luck is not there recently, everytime he short the market goes against him lah, how to wahahaha.
Flyordie ( Date: 16-May-2013 12:27) Posted:
Eh....this time no wahahaha
ynnek1267 ( Date: 16-May-2013 11:39) Posted:
Back to original in the afternoon. Tomorrow continue to drop!!! |
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Seems like you don't know the different between fundamental and technical and also short terms and long terms.
ynnek1267 ( Date: 15-May-2013 20:33) Posted:
Wahahaha!!!!!! From above 1 till today below 90. Wahajaha!!!!!! You want to say you are good to read report. Wahahaha! !!!!!! I also bobian lah. Wahahaha!!!!!!!
cheongsl ( Date: 15-May-2013 20:25) Posted:
| Seams like you are the one that don't know how to read the financial report, and I have point out your mistake so many times, everytime I point out you just turn the topic and start another rumours, which show how loosy your financial knowledge is. |
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Regrad did not get in, tomorrow should be increasing quite a lot, will get in my small share tomorrow. Profit of Q1 already cover FY 2012??
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2013 Q1 |
2012 Q1 |
FY2012 |
| |
RMB ' 000 |
% Revenue |
RMB ' 000 |
% Revenue |
RMB ' 000 |
% Revenue |
| Revenue |
831,242 |
100.00% |
67,886 |
100.00% |
934,954 |
100.00% |
| Cost of sales |
-520,358 |
-62.60% |
-69,019 |
-101.67% |
-568,052 |
-60.76% |
| Gross profit |
310,884 |
37.40% |
-1,133 |
-1.67% |
366,902 |
39.24% |
| Other income |
4,721 |
0.57% |
5,615 |
8.27% |
15,216 |
1.63% |
| Selling and distribution costs |
-23,972 |
-2.88% |
-19,256 |
-28.37% |
-117,839 |
-12.60% |
| Administrative expenses |
-36,460 |
-4.39% |
-31,481 |
-46.37% |
-131,562 |
-14.07% |
| Other expenses |
-768 |
-0.09% |
-735 |
-1.08% |
-31,219 |
-3.34% |
| Fair value gain/(loss) on completed investment properties |
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0.00% |
|
0.00% |
61,606 |
6.59% |
| Fair value gain/(loss) on investment properties under construction |
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0.00% |
|
0.00% |
161 |
0.02% |
| Operating profit/ (loss) |
254,405 |
30.61% |
-46,990 |
-69.22% |
163,265 |
17.46% |
| Finance costs |
-57,390 |
-6.90% |
-17,301 |
-25.49% |
-81,155 |
-8.68% |
| Share of profit from jointly-controlled entities |
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0.00% |
313 |
0.46% |
280 |
0.03% |
| Profit/ (loss ) before tax |
197,015 |
23.70% |
-63,978 |
-94.24% |
82,390 |
8.81% |
| Income tax |
-63,816 |
-7.68% |
13,849 |
20.40% |
-36,657 |
-3.92% |
| Profit/ (loss ) after tax |
133,199 |
16.02% |
-50,129 |
-73.84% |
45,733 |
4.89% |
cheongsl ( Date: 08-May-2013 20:31) Posted:
Look promissing, especially shanghai luodian project.
happyharvest ( Date: 08-May-2013 18:25) Posted:
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In my opinion, the only way is up unless something bad happens |
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Seems like your chanting did take effect oppositely, you say no new orders. And todays new order news come in.
New Yangzi Shipbuilding Wins Kamsarmax Bulkers
Yangzijiang Shipbuilding’s subsidiary Jiangsu New Yangzi Shpbuiding Co., Ltd has recently conclued a newbuilding contract for the construction of five 82,000dwt Kamsarmax bulkers with Global Maritime Investments.
ynnek1267 ( Date: 15-May-2013 10:59) Posted:
So, why load now. Wahahahaha!!!!!!!!!!
All those recovery stated few months ago are all cheating. Do you see improvement in revenue and profit margin? Do you see any new orders? vessels continue idling, freight rate continue to drop, all are cheating. Still want to load? Wahahahaha!!!!!!!!!!
I am waiting for you at below. Wahahahahahahaha!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! down down down!!!!!!
halleluyah ( Date: 15-May-2013 10:52) Posted:
| shipping expected recovery only in around mid 2014 |
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Seams like you are the one that don't know how to read the financial report, and I have point out your mistake so many times, everytime I point out you just turn the topic and start another rumours, which show how loosy your financial knowledge is.
ynnek1267 ( Date: 15-May-2013 17:58) Posted:
So fishy can't smell!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Wahahahah!!!!!!!!!!
Nowaday, building vessels where got so good profit margin Wahahahahahaha!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Don't wait till Carson Block to tell you how to read financial report. Wahahahahaha!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! |
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What type of profit margin are you expecting? Yang Zi Jiang profit margin is 24% for 1Q 2013, not many of the STI listed company have such a high profit margin.
ynnek1267 ( Date: 15-May-2013 10:59) Posted:
So, why load now. Wahahahaha!!!!!!!!!!
All those recovery stated few months ago are all cheating. Do you see improvement in revenue and profit margin? Do you see any new orders? vessels continue idling, freight rate continue to drop, all are cheating. Still want to load? Wahahahaha!!!!!!!!!!
I am waiting for you at below. Wahahahahahahaha!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! down down down!!!!!!
halleluyah ( Date: 15-May-2013 10:52) Posted:
| shipping expected recovery only in around mid 2014 |
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as for which year, when he admit i can`t really remember it is in the 90s where i am still schooling. that time quite surprise that the one in white shirt make mistake.
cheongsl ( Date: 15-May-2013 07:34) Posted:
You must be very young, Mr Lee admit his mistake 10years later not 20 years, this is the shipping cycle, and currently should be at the turning point already.
ynnek1267 ( Date: 14-May-2013 19:33) Posted:
| Wahahaha!!!! Not only Lee but whole market. Because of all people think so, 20 years later shipping boom. But now situations is totally opposite, all people think shipping boom from 2005 to 2009, so this industry heading to sunset industry in next 10 to 20 years. You miss the boat in 2005 to 2008, but board the wrong boat in 2012 to 2013. Wahahaha!!!!!!! |
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You must be very young, Mr Lee admit his mistake 10years later not 20 years, this is the shipping cycle, and currently should be at the turning point already.
ynnek1267 ( Date: 14-May-2013 19:33) Posted:
Wahahaha!!!! Not only Lee but whole market. Because of all people think so, 20 years later shipping boom. But now situations is totally opposite, all people think shipping boom from 2005 to 2009, so this industry heading to sunset industry in next 10 to 20 years. You miss the boat in 2005 to 2008, but board the wrong boat in 2012 to 2013. Wahahaha!!!!!!!
cheongsl ( Date: 14-May-2013 19:25) Posted:
| Remember 1985, Shipbuilding was label as " sunset" industries by Mr Lee and Governments in Singapore. But what happen subsequently? It revital and still survive till today |
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Your comparison is so strange, why are you taking quarterly balance sheet comparison, and not annually balance sheet, as current and non-current is differentialt by annually. Although Yang present it in quarterly as investor you need to do your due diligence.
2012Q1 total borrowing is 9.766billion and 2013Q1 total borrowing is 8.931billion. It is a decline in total debt over a year.
Why talk about cash which is flowing, and not talk about the current Asset/Current liability which all fundamental looks at? Unless Yang is not in business, normal people who depend on monthly income will look at cash.
The ratio in 2012Q1 is 1.49 and 2013Q1 is 1.80, it show an improving.
ynnek1267 ( Date: 14-May-2013 23:09) Posted:
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Both Yangzijiang and Cosco result are both profitable.
ynnek1267 ( Date: 14-May-2013 15:26) Posted:
| Wahahahaha.... told you to wait liao loh, die die want to buy and hold. Shipbuilding market is getting worse and worse and worse till you hear Cosco and YJZ shut down few of the shipyards to reform. Otherwise, this industry will never recover. Wahahahahaha!!!!!!!! |
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Remember 1985, Shipbuilding was label as " sunset" industries by Mr Lee and Governments in Singapore. But what happen subsequently? It revital and still survive till today.
ynnek1267 ( Date: 14-May-2013 16:15) Posted:
Wahahahaha!!!! Do you really know about the industry. How long a vessel can be used after build? How many vessels in the market, what is the idling rate? How big the vessels now as compared to the vessels decade ago? The more you understand, you will stay away from this industry. Wahahahahahahahhaahah!!!!!!!!!!!
terencee ( Date: 14-May-2013 15:49) Posted:
| LOL Nek Nek.. Actually ship building will never die one. Its just that recently everyone cut budget thats why all shipyards suffer. If I'm not wrong, the shipyard should show signs of recovery by year end. |
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Actually this is the only remaining dividend stock inside my dividend porfortlio, have already sold all my Reits last years as price runs up which make the dividend return reduce and risk increase. Have also diversify MIIF before the halt. Now, leave with this in my dividend porfortlio.
cheongsl ( Date: 13-May-2013 21:25) Posted:
Yup, the dividend payout will not be better then last year, due to discontinue operation. But should be still quite high compare to other counter in STI.
sk6666 ( Date: 13-May-2013 12:27) Posted:
Think the dividend payout this round will NOT be better than the preceding year which is (HKD0.17).
Based on last 9mths group performance ended 31Dec2012. Vested. |
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Yup, the dividend payout will not be better then last year, due to discontinue operation. But should be still quite high compare to other counter in STI.
sk6666 ( Date: 13-May-2013 12:27) Posted:
Think the dividend payout this round will NOT be better than the preceding year which is (HKD0.17).
Based on last 9mths group performance ended 31Dec2012. Vested. |
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This is an old report which was release in feb, you mean you get shock for an old report? If you are vest there should be certain reason for your vesting, if you are not vest there is nothing for you to worry about. I don't believe in all this reports, as most of this report show a lack of analysis, without stating logical reason and also does not have indept analysis of the situation. It is just a figure comparison and some idea of buying and selling, and they just come out with certain rolling figure for future fianancial year expection, which seems no logical connection to actual event.
For an overrun facilities, you will see negation of profit occuring in the realising year, and the reason for discontinue of the licensing department is due to relising of lossing business in 1Q2012 , thus the profit release in the year of 2011 is actually negate out in 2012, thus you will see a worst then previous year result. And due to disconinue operation there are also termination charges etc. this will shield the actual profitability. Thus for the subsequent year you will see better then expected result from 2012 as this negation is gone. That is my understanding for the accounting practice, correct me if I am wrong.
The negation due to discontinue operation have reduce for 9M2012 compare to 6M2012, thus most of the loss due to discontinue of operation should have release and the Earning per share is 14.7HK cts for 9M2012. Thus with this I am expecting a 19~21HK cts for the Full year result, and a much better result for next year after the discontinue of the lossing department.
sk6666 ( Date: 13-May-2013 13:16) Posted:
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Last year total earning is 359.3million, which is 20.9cts per share, but the dividend payout is 20cts. Which payout is more then the REITS %, if they start to relise they have been overpay their investor and neglect their own balance sheet for too long, then it is still possible to become a fundamental good stock, especially if they can retain their customer base.
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