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Very positive price actions actually. I think close $1.25 at least by next Friday. At the moment just wish more information on private placement and rights issue but I guess it is not the right timing yet so just have to be patient, which long holders should have plenty of experience especially those who have been holding since day 1.
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Focusing on size of private placement and its price as well as rights issue ratio and price now for me. YZJF is now trading above book as market believe in the growth of maritime businesses. If it indeed going to trade at $0.77 post spin, and with YZJF post spin at $0.48, then the current price seems about right. However, so far the uptrend seems strong and the sky is the limit. As retail investors we don?t have deep inside knowledge so who knows what is driving the price now? However, logic is that the higher the share price, the placement and rights price will have to go up too. With only 140m targeted for rights issue, it is likely the rights ratio is 1 for 10 as 2 for 10 will mean a very cheap rights price and it will exert pressure on overall returns if the injected money doesn?t return very high profit. So far the spin off journey has been smooth but private placement and rights issue and the deployment of the injected funds is crucial to the next stage of growth. The management must get the prices and size for the private placement and rights issue, right.
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On track to close at least $1.2 by Friday. Now really it is up to the BBs, whether how much premium they want to accord to the post spin new focus maritime businesses under YZJM. It is already above post spin NAV but still below $0.77 as projected by CGS, it will be super nice if it goes there shortly after spin off. $0.77 is as if it is $1.44 pre spin given that it is 1 for 1 spin off. I would think much dependant on post spin YZJM?s fundamentals. Therefore it is importance and good if they conduct 3Q update, which timeline fall nicely shortly after the planned spin off in Nov. A mid Nov 3Q update that provide clear earning and growth visibility will propel the share price to $0.77. I respect CGS for being the first one that put a definite post spin share price and shall defer to their projection and set my sight also at $0.77 for the time being. Dare to dream.
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It is highly possible and may happen by Friday. This is based on similar rerating of Centurion, Boustead and LHN as well as to certain extend, APAC. All have been trading well above their respective books now. Even my old flame China Sunsine out of the blue without any new story also is trading above its book now. I think market is bullish and if a stock has good earnings, high cash and rerating story, it will get push up. How high depends on how market view the future prospects of the rerating story. For YZJF, it is converting its high cash into the focus maritime business for 10-20% returns. My personal target is for it to hit EPS of at least 8 to 10 cents for a start. The post spin YZJF and YZJM should have no problem trading above book and or at least 10x PE if the managements get it right.
pkli899 ( Date: 16-Sep-2025 13:53) Posted:
Alternatively, big mouth come and finish off 1.19.
Better still, 1.20 as well.
This way, price will fly. |
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Market has finally given premium to the book value of YZJF as it trades decisively above its NAV. This shows that the market thinks the maritime businesses that the post spin YZJM is going to embark on is viable. Having said that, the premium is not too high at the moment which is understandable as it is still early days. This contrast with Boustead where their potential values (RNAV) are now clearly realisable with the planned listing of a reit, and market has priced it much higher than its current NAV. Nonetheless, keeping both for the foreseeable future as both are paying good dividends.
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Epic! Almost caught up YZJF in term of % rise. To be frank, BSL now provides even greater visibility in term of growth and value potentials. As the values of their real estate via reit listing is clearly tangible whereas YZJF spinoff and the relevant maritime growth story is much dependent on both marco and micro economics environment
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The Edge Singapore | SGX to launch new index that tracks companies beyond STI: Minister Chee Hong Tat
https://www.theedgesingapore.com/news/singapore-economy/sgx-launch-new-index-tracks-companies-beyond-sti-minister-chee-hong-tat
Both YZJF and YZJM are in good positions to be included in this new index, if it really come to fruition. Even after spin off, both companies NAV and market cap are still in the range of 2b, which is significantly higher than most companies not in STI. Of course market cap is likely to change for YZJF and YZJM post spin, with 1 down and 1 up expected but both should still qualify for the new index, if it come to fruition.
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Small gap up open, not sure shorts started to cover or what. Let?s be patient and just hold to whatever shares we have till placement price, right price, 3Q update if have etc cos at this rate I started to doubt it won?t be too steep discount for placement and right shares. Unless price correction before spin off. As it is, post spin price will be close to $0.6 so it is unlikely for placement price to be $0.284 as per earlier projection. Accordingly rights price cannot be more than 40-50% discount. We shall see, perhaps there will be some news flow next few days or week.
ysh2006 ( Date: 12-Sep-2025 10:31) Posted:
Today suddenly go up is it short covering ? later can reach $1.20 ?
HVRRVH ( Date: 11-Sep-2025 15:52) Posted:
| Yes everything will be crytalised in November. 3Q results, rights price, placement price and market prices for the post spin YZJF and YZJM. With already confirm 40% dividend payout policy so if the combined entities can achieve 10 cents EPS that will be good. More importantly we have to see big growth potential to justify further price upside. Hopefully 3Q results will be made available since it is not mandatory. As it is, shortists seem confidence to short anything above $1.06 especially when the price hit $1.1 or more. |
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What' s cooking man, money left on the table getting larger haiz...
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Yes everything will be crytalised in November. 3Q results, rights price, placement price and market prices for the post spin YZJF and YZJM. With already confirm 40% dividend payout policy so if the combined entities can achieve 10 cents EPS that will be good. More importantly we have to see big growth potential to justify further price upside. Hopefully 3Q results will be made available since it is not mandatory. As it is, shortists seem confidence to short anything above $1.06 especially when the price hit $1.1 or more.
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Due to low liquidity the price movements can be volatitle and indeed so, can hit high of $1.72 then $1.46 in few days time. Today jump again probably taking cue from Centurion Reit news. Waiting for new shares and dividend on 26/9!
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Kena conned. Took some profit at $0.41. Fooled by the low daily volume until now. It' s ok, still holding some. Let' s see it will go up to $0.475 and beyond.
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Thank you for the attached link. Very useful. First analyst who projected post spin prices for YZJM and YZJF at $0.77 and $0.48 respectively. But I don' t know how to read the EPS forecast at figure 6, anyone know? It has 2 portions old and new, is it referring only to the post spin YZJF? If that' s the case, the projected EPS for the remaining YZJF seems too high, for next 3 years at 7.1c, 7.2c and 7.9c respectively. A 10x PE will put old YZJF at $0.71 to $0.79 which I really don' t think so. If it is the combined projected EPS, then of course, too low. But we all know all these analysts project share prices don' t need capital one, it is as good as they have no responsibility, so I guess the projection could be referring only to old YZJF post spin. Let' s see the immediate projection of $1.25 can be reached or not before spin off.
s100125 ( Date: 09-Sep-2025 10:44) Posted:
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It' s ok don' t have to sorry. Really appreciate your sharing, specifically, very useful information with regard to the rights ratio. If 1 for 10, there will be an increase of 348,045,052 shares. If it is 2 for 10, it wlll add 696,090,104 shares. I would think placees would not be entitled to rights issue if placement and rights issue are done concurrently. Presuming rights price is $0.40 [30% discount to NAV], it will add $279m to the capital, that' s why I said the rights issue ratio is most likely to be 1 for 10, which would add the targeted $140m to the capital. Indeed the capital added, together with the targeted $250m from private placement, is very huge esp if rights issue is 2 for 10. With such attractive discount, I think existing shareholders can forget about subscribing to excess rights but we have to wait for the confirm placement and rights price in due course.
pkli899 ( Date: 05-Sep-2025 16:43) Posted:
Sorry, HVRRVH.
I didn' t make myself clear enough.
He was not present physically but on line (w/video).
Reception was not good on his side, I think.
He couldn' t hear our side properly.
In fact, the other directors all attended virtually. |
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Urh.. You said sr Ren not present but he seemed to field most if not all the questions? Anyway, thanks for the sharing. I think sr Ren can be too assertive and it may come arcoss as arrogant at times and he most likely felt frustrated as some qns to him may appears to have no understanding of his grand plan lol. The part that he mentioned placement is meant for instiutional and accretive investors to participate because of SGX/MAS [note: my inference] make sense esp with his remark that the compmay have enough cash. The ratio for rights issue also close enough to our previous calculation of 1 for 10. I am afraid in the end it may still be 1 for 10, as the amount to raise is only $140m. Too bad he still didn' t address why such high anticipated of dilution due to private placement, esp if the interest is high, definitely can set the price higher. Also agree and credit to him for thinking that some instituion and AI would take advantage of placement to cash out early. Of course he would say don' t sell YZJF post spin haha. Also, the plan private placement and rights issue could have push the spin off timeline further out, if not, it should be weeks or even 10 days or so with ETL obtained [should be anytime soon but could also delay due to private placement/rights issue consideration].
pkli899 ( Date: 05-Sep-2025 15:18) Posted:
Yes, share same view as you, HVRRVH.
Disappointed that senior Ren as well as majority of the directors were not present.
Not taking the EGM seriously? No reason given and neither was there any apology for their absence!
Senior Ren was impatient most of the time. Brushing off question regarding the viability of YZJFH after spin off. Told off shareholder to concentrate on spin-off only.
Irritated with the young interpreter, he stopped her abruptly (though I agreed that she was not so professional but pity her for being cut off so suddenly).
His mood changed only after one shareholder sang praise of him.
Not very much info was disclosed on the maritime business post spin off, except promise of good prospect.
However, he did say, if not for the authority wish to attract more investment in our stock market, they would not want to do the private placement.
He mentioned quite a number of institutions/private investors have expressed interest in the spin off. However, he is wary of their intention to profit from the event.
Hence, a 6 months lock-in condition will be imposed. $250m is the maximum amount to raise but they actually want much less.
He also heeled many current shareholders outcries and will do a 2 for 10 rights issue at attractive price.
A 2 for 10 right is the best they can offer (to answer one shareholder who asked for 1 for 3 or 1 for 2 and even 1 for 1!).
This is because together with the private placement, the fund raised would be quite substantial. They have enough cash already.
Hence, this new money will create undue pressure (to deploy the sum quickly and its subsequent performance).
Senior Ren mentioned that they expect the repeat of the scenario of previous spin off.
This time, the reverse price of spin off entity will go up while the price of the remaining business will drop. The 2 for 10 rights issue is to help mitigate the effect.
He also warned shareholders not to sell away the remaining entity as he is confident it will get better with the progressive reduction of the DI in PRC.
No time line was given for the spin off. Only overheard Liu Hua mentioned Nov 25 to some shareholders after the EGM. |
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I have jumped back in for the following reasons:
1)Married deal $0.428 yet price get supported at $0.455 and $0.46
2) Above show sellers of married deal more eager to sell even below market price
3) New buyers at current levels are unfazed that someone else got the shares at $0.428
4) Interesting to know who is the buyer, soon have to be announced as the amount of married deal constituted to about 6.7% of total outstanding shares.
5) Some major corporate movements should be on the card, given that SingPost already so jia lak, any good move could prove to be major catalyst
Good luck to all holders.
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Not in town and didn' t attend the EGM, however, did submit proxy form for EGM Chairman to vote. Look like the uncertainty over placement and rights prices are impeding the price from moving up. I would even venture to say current price or at most $1.1 will be the peak before the finalisation of the spin off. It seems that the mangement either didn' t address or address adequately during the EGM with regard to the private placement and rights issue.
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Very quiet before EGM' s tomorrow. Less retailors participation at current price levels. Prices have not been able to breach $1.06 convincinly since trading above $1. More information should be coming out from tomorrow' s EGM especially with regard to the intended placement.
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A lot of the shareholders will choose scrip now. No problem for enlarge sharebase since there will be a listing of reits which will crystalise the values of the assets. In other words, the values of the assets, those going to be listed, would now be clearly reflected in the respecitve book. No wonder price shoot up so much once clarity is established. It' s a pity that the share price correction didn' t come down to my trigger price of $1.44 a few days back. However, look like existing shareholders wouldn' t be getting the reit shares thru distribution in specie, as BSL' s stake in the reit would be through the 20% holding of UIB. Not even sure there will be special dividend or not as Boustead already injected some of its properties into UIB for 20% stake. Perhaps more properties would be injected and if the injections are not for higher stake in UIB then there may be SD. Let' s see.
HVRRVH ( Date: 22-Aug-2025 10:50) Posted:
Already indicated taking scrip thru investors.sgx.com. Seemless process like last year don' t have to post back the hard copy form. Last year I mentioned they offer scrip probably to boost the total shares base with a view of spinning off a reit. This year they offer scrip again so just take more so when they already announced plan to spin off a reit. They also clever not to offer scrip for interim dividend as the quantum usually is smaller and not worth the admin work and not cost effective. This is an investors friendly company, totoal scrip issue will be rounded up to the nearest whole unit instead of rounding down like some reits. It may seems trivial but still, they choose to round up when they can totally disregard the fractional unit.
HVRRVH ( Date: 12-Aug-2025 18:26) Posted:
| Yup. Either half of 3/4 to the nearest round. Won' t take all. If price come below $1.45 can buy out right if not happy with current holding size. |
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If old Ren really give 20% effective dilution to existing shareholders by doing the private placement, as per earlier calcuation, the placement price would have to be $0.284 which is effectively a 50% discount to NAV of about $0.58, more or less. Then 250m will resulted in about 888m new shares if using $0.284 per share. If old Ren cannot give 50% for rights issue and give 40% instead also using NAV, then based on post spin NAV of $0.51 after private placement, he have to place the rights issue at about $0.30 and that will add about 467m new shares. We don' t know the share price as YZJM has yet to be listed, the assumptions are based on NAV. As private placement will add 888m new shares, by the time come to the right, the outstadning shares would be around 4.37b so using $140m to be raised, the ratio for rights shares, if using $0.30 per rights share, will be about 467m shares/$140m equal to 1:10. Every 10 shares for 1 rights share. If I have 1 million shares currently, I have to subscribe full rights of 100,000 shares at the cost of $30,000 to avoid any dilution due to the rights issue. If I want to overcome the dilution effect from the private placement, I have to subscribe for the extra rights. I haven' t calculate how much yet. Let' s see what' s the actual number first but now at least got some rough assumptions based on discount, dillution, NAV etc. All calculation come to naught if old Ren say private placement $0.40 lol.
ysh2006 ( Date: 29-Aug-2025 07:06) Posted:
| Think the YZJM right issue maybe price at 20c 30% of new shares ?...(just guess only)... |
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