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29-Oct-2020 00:09

Seatrium / SEMBMARINE - A NEW CHAPTER - DEMERGED

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I believe that it is a matter of time that SCI does a rights issue to recapitalise, with Temasek' s support. They can hang on for another year or two. If nothing is done by then, they would likely be going the hyflux way.

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28-Oct-2020 23:47

Seatrium / SEMBMARINE - A NEW CHAPTER - DEMERGED

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The signs seem to be pointing that direction. The story I believe is as follow:

Temasek originally wanted to increase its stake in Keppel to 51% first, then attempt a merger of SMM and Keppel O& M next year. However, SCI has a cash crunch and cannot Tahan to support SMM until next year.

So Temasek has to take SCI off the hook first with the rights issue. After that, they got Keppel to declare a disastrous Q2 so they can pull out of the buyout offer. (Keppel made some significant write offs that they do not really need to make. I was a little puzzled when I saw their H1 Fin Statement). Shortly, Keppel announced that they are doing a strategic review of their biz., specially mentioning the O& M part.

As SMM management is currently in the midst of the merger discussion with Temasek and Keppel, they have to refrain from making any comment to avoid any complication. Otherwise, ordinarily, they should be making annoucement after announcement after the rights issue to shore up support for the company. I was finding this a bit puzzling. If the story above is anywhere near what transpired, then it all make sense to me now.

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28-Oct-2020 23:19

Seatrium / SEMBMARINE - A NEW CHAPTER - DEMERGED

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First time watching the video, Thanks!

Seems like if it were to happen, it would be temasek buying Keppel O& M from Keppel Corp first (likely using part of the S$4.1 billion they year mark originally for the Keppel buyout) and SMM issue additional shares to Temasek to absorb Keppel O& M into their book. SMM could also issue shares to Keppel if they want to take a partial stake (say 10-30%) in the combined entity to particpate in the recovery of offshore marine sector.

Since Temasek owns 42.6% of SMM and only 20.1% of Keppel, we know that SMM will get a decent deal, given their interest is also at stake.

naoshingo ( Date: 28-Oct-2020 21:56) Posted:

For all SM SH, please watch again if you haven' t.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r8cSqG5-_R0

DYODD!!!!!

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28-Oct-2020 17:43

Seatrium / SEMBMARINE - A NEW CHAPTER - DEMERGED

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Was queuing to buy at 12.7 today, but did not get. Will queue again tomo.

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28-Oct-2020 13:23

Seatrium / SEMBMARINE - A NEW CHAPTER - DEMERGED

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After pulling out of the the Keppel buyout, Temasek might be saving up to do a 5 for 1 rights issue at 20cents for SCI as well to recapitalise it.

The $1.5bil subordinated loan to SMM, which was previously classified as an asset in SCI' s book, will have to be written off. It is like a bank writing off a bad debt. From the accounting standpoint, it is like SCI making an $1.5 billion extraordinary loss (equivalent of 6-7 years of their net profit). If you have studied the breakdown of SCI' s H1 results, they are actually making a net loss even if we exclude SMM' s contribution.

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28-Oct-2020 13:09

Seatrium / SEMBMARINE - A NEW CHAPTER - DEMERGED

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While the manipulators are trying to convince SCI retail shareholders to sell SMM to buy more SCI through the manipulated price action, the correct contrarian strategy is to do the reverse.

Sell SCI and buy SMM.

SCI' s estimated gearing at 2.5x vs SMM below 1.
SCI is in competitive Singapore utility market which got Hyflux bankrupted.
SMM has the offshore wind and recently surging natural gas prices blowing in its favour and a truck load of cold hard cash.
SCI is in a cash crunch and making loss in H1 2020 ex SMM' s contribution

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28-Oct-2020 13:00

Seatrium / SEMBMARINE - A NEW CHAPTER - DEMERGED

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Exactly.

Longtermer ( Date: 28-Oct-2020 12:33) Posted:

TH if want to privatise will need to offer close to NAV. That will be 30c.. otherwise no deal imo. Dyodd.

desmodeus ( Date: 28-Oct-2020 12:27) Posted:

12b shares. price how not to fall. If I am TH, let it fall and privatise cheap chea

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28-Oct-2020 10:56

Seatrium / SEMBMARINE - A NEW CHAPTER - DEMERGED

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Latest figures will have to wait for Q3 update in mid Nov.

The $4 bil debt figure is correct.

It could be $4bil debt and $1.7bil cash or if they choose to pay it down, $3bil debt and $700 mil

Many of their projects are near completion which is cashflow positive. Also another $100+ million cash coming in from government Covid handouts. So numbers may look better than the above.

Conclusion: Sell Keppel, buy SMM

St.Maximus ( Date: 28-Oct-2020 10:44) Posted:

Yes. That 4 bn debt was 2019 end which has been reduced. But do you have the latest figures?

better ( Date: 28-Oct-2020 10:32) Posted:

Alamak, the numbers (debt, cash equuivalent etc) you see in the financial tab is based on 31 Dec 2019 before they draw on the SCI subordinated loan.

On the same page, if you click on the financial statements tab, then balance sheet, you would realise that they lift the numbers from the Dec 2019 financial statement.

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28-Oct-2020 10:44

Seatrium / SEMBMARINE - A NEW CHAPTER - DEMERGED

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https://www.sembmarine.com/scm2016/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/20200814_Rights-Issue_OIS.pdf

SMM' s cash equivalent on the 30th June 2020 is $1,107,031,000 or $1.1 billion. (refer to page 83 of the above link)

After collecting another $600million from the rights issue, cash should total about $1.7billion.

Many of their projects are at the near completion stage, which should be cashflow positive.

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28-Oct-2020 10:32

Seatrium / SEMBMARINE - A NEW CHAPTER - DEMERGED

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Trader1987 ( Date: 28-Oct-2020 10:12) Posted:

https://www.sgx.com/securities/equities/S51

See under ' Financial' tab

ADS2200 ( Date: 28-Oct-2020 10:10) Posted:

trader1987, could you elaborate more how you get the total debts of > $4b
market cap we all know.
since you have posted, good to substantiate it. thanks a million 🙏

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27-Oct-2020 21:50

Seatrium / SEMBMARINE - A NEW CHAPTER - DEMERGED

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Agreed wholehearted. Sell Keppel, buy SMM.

SMM at 13 cents is like Keppel selling for $2.

SMM and Keppel similiar gearing ratio
SMM has similiar or better profit potential than Keppel
SMM has 42% of its book value in cash while Keppel has 15%
SMM trading at 0.43x book value while Keppel 0.79x

Alson18 ( Date: 27-Oct-2020 20:22) Posted:

If i buy 10 lots kep corp... @4.50
I can buy 350 lots SMM@0.13
or maybe more if price drift lower

Think can slowly buy 50 lots each time...
And lock it up....

bystander1965 ( Date: 27-Oct-2020 13:56) Posted:

If it happens as u said I wouldn't add more of smm. I will go buy KC instead. 😁

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27-Oct-2020 17:32

Seatrium / SEMBMARINE - A NEW CHAPTER - DEMERGED

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Hidden in BP' s Q3 report:

Alongside its second-quarter earnings in August, the energy company announced a pivot to a new strategy, saying the move would help the firm shift to clean energy in line with its plan to become a net-zero-carbon company by 2050 or sooner.

BP had said that, within 10 years, it planned to raise its annual low carbon investment 10-fold to around $5 billion a year. It also aimed to have developed around 50 gigawatts of net renewable generating capacity by 2030 &ndash a 20-fold increase from 2019. BP agreed to enter the offshore wind sector through a strategic partnership with Equinor to pursue offshore wind opportunities in the US, including taking a 50% stake in two leases off the US east coast.

The offshore wind is blowing fast and furious.

bystander1965 ( Date: 27-Oct-2020 15:24) Posted:

Interesting. Just came out BP beats third-quarter estimates and swings back to profit on improving oil demand

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27-Oct-2020 10:14

Seatrium / SEMBMARINE - A NEW CHAPTER - DEMERGED

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Agreed. Just a matter of time.

Q3 biz update in 2-3 weeks time. They might decide to act earlier to give the manipulators a surprise!

Longtermer ( Date: 27-Oct-2020 09:47) Posted:

This drop is short term..
TH and big Institutions are main SH now. Their costs are 20c or more..
Just wait for the BIG move.
Accumulation will win Huge here. Patience..

TigerPlay ( Date: 27-Oct-2020 09:41) Posted:

Funny, why SCi and SCm still linked together.I tot SCi had fully let go of SCm and they got nothing to do with each other after demerge. Are they still linked even after the demerge announced and executed? That why SCi go up, SCm must come down to balance out?

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27-Oct-2020 10:08

Seatrium / SEMBMARINE - A NEW CHAPTER - DEMERGED

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You are fast. I only managed to buy a bunch at 13.1

trademaster ( Date: 27-Oct-2020 09:25) Posted:

bought 130, reversal coming

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26-Oct-2020 19:16

Seatrium / SEMBMARINE - A NEW CHAPTER - DEMERGED

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Totally agreed, especially point no. 1

Very little of what is said here affects the share price.

SMM' s share will do what it wants to do at the time it decides to do, regardless of the comments on this forum.

FATABA ( Date: 26-Oct-2020 17:10) Posted:

Haha in a forum like this ....there are always many funny things.
1. Many new members oout of no where and comment .....NOTE that actually all this wld not affect the market ( maybe some individual here only )
2. ONLY there are a few good members who offer some good points and input .
3. Many just talk a price of view with NO reasons ...which is just talk ( still ok )
4. Finally if we ONLY view those serious comment n views ...... and then contribute honestly .....I think we can have some good information sharing on this
forum .......
As for SMM ....for those who hv it for " free" frm SCI distribution ...and feel like NO RUSH ( didnt sell at cheap) ....can hold on and wait
( it does not matter what those comments are :)) .....they hold or not , they hv the share or not / ) IF not just sell them , every sell there is a buy :)
DYODD

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26-Oct-2020 16:38

Seatrium / SEMBMARINE - A NEW CHAPTER - DEMERGED

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Some prata men on this forum seems to be going parabolic!

One forumer who said sometime back he has no position suddenly says he sold his SMM shares.

Another who said he has no position started posting non-stop negative posts. Strange world!

Starship ( Date: 26-Oct-2020 11:37) Posted:

better ( Date: 26-Oct-2020 11:21) Posted:

Exactly, too far-fetched story exposed the agenda.

For me, my agenda is clear.

There are, however, quite a few here that say they have no position in SMM and pretend to be neutral. They talked too much and their agenda became clear....often flapping like a prata.

The question then is, would a person wh0 has no position in SMM spend so much time in forum to talk it down.

If so, how credible they are

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26-Oct-2020 16:35

Seatrium / SEMBMARINE - A NEW CHAPTER - DEMERGED

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https://www.sembmarine.com/scm2016/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Greenwave-2020.2021-Poster.pdf

Be part of the solution. Not part of the pollution.

Encourage your kids to take part.

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26-Oct-2020 11:21

Seatrium / SEMBMARINE - A NEW CHAPTER - DEMERGED

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ADS2200 ( Date: 26-Oct-2020 10:59) Posted:

you are right. heavily shorted

Sembcorp Marine        10,333,400            SGD      1,425,993.5

must say you guys are good. got the guts to short. all the best !!!
said something more believing than to talk about c' mon people lending money. 
these are rock solid institution. temasek just raised money and investing in ant group us$1b 
too far-fetched story exposed your hidden agenda.
anyway ... diminishing returns ... not worth shorting ! you have done your good job and i am sure many will thank you for doing it. cheers

trademaster ( Date: 26-Oct-2020 10:44) Posted:

counters that has been heavily shorted past few days like tech n medical also, watch out for shortcoverings

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26-Oct-2020 10:15

Seatrium / SEMBMARINE - A NEW CHAPTER - DEMERGED

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Precisely.

Just bought a bunch at $0.135 to keep. Truly a gift that keeps on giving!

Rumour has it that I am doing paper trading. The good thing about this forum is that anyone can choose to believe what they want to.

Cheers and trade safe.

ADS2200 ( Date: 26-Oct-2020 10:05) Posted:

ceo rights at 20c. also increased his stake. out of nowhere comes charles schwab investment ......🤔 wonder which fund institutions are coming in
institutions are accumulating ...... if not now then when to buy ?
i will keep my bonus scm shares.
thanks to shortists for making scm singing " cheap, cheap, cheap" - for a song
walau nov coming ... 10.10 sale still on.
you only need to worry when the 10.10 sale is over !!!
....... don' t forget to buuuuuyyyyyyyyyy ..... i am in the queue ....... now lim kopi 😜

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25-Oct-2020 22:35

Seatrium / SEMBMARINE - A NEW CHAPTER - DEMERGED

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Totally agreed. Just waiting for the east gas or offshore wind.

万事俱备只欠东风

3rd Quarter biz update in about 2-3 weeks time.

SlothSG ( Date: 25-Oct-2020 21:30) Posted:

simply agreed

now is a matter of waiting for the wind and tide to turn

by now, most SCI " free lots" would have been disposed if SMM does not fit their investment criteria. however, some still hold on with mid to long term view and may even accumulate - good entry point vs right issue @$0.20

positive pointers come to mind :

1. TH - substantial holdings after the exercise
2. $1.9b netbook orders
3. conservatively $600m raise via rights exercise
4. diversify from oil sector to wind projects
5. potential candidates for O & M merger

Alson18 ( Date: 22-Oct-2020 22:32) Posted:

My thinking very simple...

The lower the price...the lower the risk the higher the rewards!

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