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11-Apr-2014 09:24

Olam Intl / OLAM_OLAM

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Am I right that if Tamesek buys above 2,23 then they have to offer at the highest price?

beginners ( Date: 10-Apr-2014 21:35) Posted:

Temasek is offering 2.23. Today ends at 2.24. Curious who is the one willing to buy at 2.24.

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10-Apr-2014 09:49

China Fishery / China Fishery - Low PE

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See the EGM circular, the warrant issue new share from the Company, ie dilution for all shareholders. The confusion was created by the thinking that Carlyle will push........which is illogical. Mano and those at the EGM protested. Stop hoping and look for facts.

Carlyle must got something over the majority shareholders for them to agree.

stockpicker ( Date: 10-Apr-2014 09:16) Posted:

Hunt high and low, could not find the document. Is it something that was agreed after the AGM? Para 8 of the original warrant document gave a detail accounts of shareholders of holdings before and after the warrant is exercised.. Ng family' s share remained the same but its percentage went down to 67.35% from 70.51%, is that not share dilution?

http://repository.shareinvestor.com/rpt_view.pl/id/b574302fa90fef5624a4095cbe829cb033fd862b43c0a8794dc6c3f291d9bd48/type/si_news

stockpicker ( Date: 10-Apr-2014 08:57) Posted:

I may have missed something here. Is there a source for this document? If that being the case, the grouses from minor shareholders is really unfounded. If the shares for warrant conversion are really coming out from Ng families, wouldn' t it be a private dealing, sort of stock purchase from a Director/Substantial stock holder with warrant conversion that is quite unprecedented. How much did Ng family pledged for giving up the shares? Much was said about the capital of the group will be increased by USD$40 million, does that mean Ng family is giving up their shares for free?

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09-Apr-2014 13:55

Olam Intl / OLAM_OLAM

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Your are not the registered owner. Your cpf manager which you had appointed will receive the offer and you are to instruct them.

Please ask you broker, they are responsible to ADVISE YOU

roostertan ( Date: 09-Apr-2014 12:06) Posted:

How come I have not received my acceptance offer forms for Olam shares which I have bot using CPF? Strange.

Leongsan ( Date: 09-Apr-2014 10:45) Posted:

Cannot be. Your name and address are printed on the acceptance form and this appear through the window of the envelope that also doubles up ad the mailing address for the postman.

Booklet is only an insert with no address

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09-Apr-2014 10:45

Olam Intl / OLAM_OLAM

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duran123 ( Date: 09-Apr-2014 02:36) Posted:

I' ve received mine with the yellow form for acceptance and return envelope.

iuhne1 ( Date: 08-Apr-2014 21:13) Posted:

Hi,

I have received the booklet. But there is no form to indicate acceptance and no return envelope. Just a booklet giving details. Is there another letter with acceptance form coming?

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09-Apr-2014 09:28

China Fishery / China Fishery - Low PE

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Carlyle has got 3 years to convert warrants to shares at 52cents regardless of price, though above 52 cents share price to their advantage

stockpicker ( Date: 08-Apr-2014 23:10) Posted:

When the share price crosses 0.52, the warrants will be converted to shares. The existing shares will be diluted by 90 mil. Quite likely, the BBs, including the Ngs, will presumably try their best to prevent the price from crossing over 0.52.. so, the likely pple who want to see price crossing 0.52 will be CapIIA/Caryle.. The speculators will help along until it is about the cross 0.52. But there will always be some, who believe in long tern investment and will never believe the dilution will bring down prices, they will continue buying. China Fish tried this $1/= warrants trick 3 years ago. It did not work and dun see why it should work this time. Put it another way, if a company has good financial fundamental and bright future, there will be no need to go after this kind of trick to hold the investors on the other hand, the investors will pull out if the company did not have what they wanted, a trick like this won' t hold them back.

Leongsan ( Date: 08-Apr-2014 09:39) Posted:

Try this logic.......why would anyone push up the shares so that Carlyle get some more to sell to you ? Only when the Ngs need money for chinafish operations? The loan issue all settled now. It is good results from the acduisition that drive the price.

Dont wear rose tinted glasses.

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08-Apr-2014 09:39

China Fishery / China Fishery - Low PE

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T2LE56 ( Date: 08-Apr-2014 08:01) Posted:

Bro, .... so far the price has not gone pass 0.52. According to stockpiler, Carlyle cannot have the warrants unless it crossed 0.52

What' s good for the BB, should Carlyle to take up the warrants ???

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08-Apr-2014 07:16

China Fishery / China Fishery - Low PE

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Anyone interested to push will had sold out after Carlyle got the 90m warrants.The ones will only push are the Ngs

CWC*** ( Date: 07-Apr-2014 19:47) Posted:

Again .....be remain that Carlyle can only converted the warrants when CF at $0.52......

so if Carlyle wanted to take it up ....paisei ...pls come out $$$ to push its up to $0.52.........

If no others BB to push to $0.52.......sorry .....the warrants will toh after 3 years.........

Carlyle got 3 years on hand + they already loss big last round = The high changes that management will addopt Wait N See strategy.......

so CF not for short term investors.......

Cheeeeeers

T2LE56 ( Date: 07-Apr-2014 19:00) Posted:

Guess you answered the question while I was keying ... haha

Seriously don' t understand, what is the reason for giving Carlyle the warrants. Some was not happy about it because it is a steal ... as mentioned by someone. If it is so good, why is Carlyle don' t take it up ?

There is no mentioning if they have taken the offer or they don' t need to make known. Stockpiler or anyone care to explain .... thanks

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01-Apr-2014 12:38

China Fishery / China Fishery - Low PE

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Imarpe assesses advance anchovy fishing

Click on the flag for more information about Peru

PERU
Friday, March 28, 2014, 01:40 (GMT + 9)

The National Fisheries Society (SNP) expects Instituto del Mar del Peru (Imarpe) decides to set an earlier start of the first anchovy season in order to mitigate the negative effects El Niñ o event may have.

According to Elena Conterno, SNP president, Imarpe is analyzing the request to set an earlier date for the season presented by the association.

" It is necessary to understand that every day the activity [fishing] will be more difficult, but hopefully it [the season] is opening in a week, and we expect a resolution on it is issued," she stressed.

The first fishing season of the pelagic resource usually begins during the first half of April, and lasts about three months. The second stage begins in November and lasts until the following summer.

But this year the arrival of El Niñ o event, which is &lsquo from weak to moderate&rsquo is expected in April. Imarpe scientists indicated that the presence of warm water will make the anchovy move to deeper water, making it difficult to capture.

" Although there are signs of sea warming, at the moment it is available to capture. For that reason we are requesting an early start to the fishing season, given the uncertainty that there will be for the second season," explained Conterno, as it was reported by Andina.

Moreover, the SNP president stated that all fishing companies are proceeding cautiously after the bad situation last year," but anyway the fisheries investments concerning environmental issues continue," he stressed.

According to Conterno, in recent years the private fishing industry invested about USD 500 million for the treatment of effluents and emissions, and Chimbote emission, in Ancash, which will derive the effluent 10 miles away from the bay, is being finished.

Related article:

- Fishing season recommended earlier due to El Niñ o
- Over 400 vessels may not fish for anchovy

By Analia Murias
editorial@fis.com
www.fis.com

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01-Apr-2014 10:57

China Fishery / China Fishery - Low PE

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Only 1. Pray and hope in yourself.

Count the free float, and with retail investors taking millions (Mano and friends as reported below), where are the funds? Caryle is only biggie and that they swipe 90m warrants, about 25% of free float,

This share will only go up on basic facts, no sleek operators.

SLPY69 ( Date: 01-Apr-2014 09:04) Posted:

Newbie888,

For the last 3 months the consensus has been a BUY call and for those who have bought HOLD.

Recommendation

Current

1 week ago

1 month ago

2 months ago

3 months ago

Buy

Outperform

Hold

UnderPerform

Sell

No Recommendation

Total Recommendation

Consensus Target Price

N/A

Buy

Consensus Recommendation

Buy

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31-Mar-2014 11:01

China Fishery / China Fishery - Low PE

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The 2014 anchovy season in due to start in mid April. Imarpe if granting a Quota above 2million ton and better still above 2.5 million ton, China Fish will be Flying fish. Please watch out for Quota announcement.

Taking money back from Russia is good news. These payments created doubts for the share price to fall below NTA. Wait for news for the US$80M.

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30-Mar-2014 09:36

China Fishery / China Fishery - Low PE

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Arowana about the same family. Thailand and that region also have them.

Observers ( Date: 30-Mar-2014 08:29) Posted:

" Paiche are grown in purposefully created ponds in the Amazon rain forest where they are fed pellets made from Peruvian anchovies without other animal by-products."

They say it like other animal by-products are low class and Peruvian anchovies fishmeals are high class. Is that the general consensus in the fishmeal industry?

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25-Mar-2014 09:58

Olam Intl / OLAM_OLAM

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At the present time the company warrant is without premium, maybe because of the offer.

Rights are a great possibility with Temasek. See Chanrai selling a quarter of their holdings to Temasek, but did not sell any warrants.

We all know that Olam need money to take advantage of its Africa advantage.Rights for many projects, increasing palm and rubber acerages, fertilizer and more distribution businesses, whatever Temasek see in them.

With rights there will be free warrants and you need only to come up cash later.

See my earlier post sell shares buy warrants if you want to stay with Temasek.

Octavia ( Date: 25-Mar-2014 09:14) Posted:

On the Temasek cash offer, StanChart guides few possibilities on why, and why now: 1) Temasek is comfortable with Olam and wants to increase its exposure to the structural ?more mouths and bigger wallets? food theme, before price rise further on higher agri-commodity prices 2) To reduce free float, ahead of possible later privatization later 3) This is pre-cursor to a change in capital structure, with the family sell-down at this stage a rout toward securing cash to support a rights issue. StanChart downgrades Olam to In-Line (from Outperform) but TP is revised upwards to $2.23 from $1.93 (latter TP was set in Nov last year)

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21-Mar-2014 12:53

China Fishery / China Fishery - Low PE

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Why will Carlye exercise at 52cents. They got it and can exercise any time. Long term investors hold weak holders run.

Carlye has also big investment in CP.

Skylinr ( Date: 21-Mar-2014 11:58) Posted:

I see, didn't know that. Thanks for pointing out! Smiley

Waiting for refinancing announcement now, should be out soon, as they were aiming settling it by March. Hopefully the price will move up again then, better still if to the warrant exercise price of $0.52!

newbie888 ( Date: 20-Mar-2014 23:25) Posted:

not really compulsory... if China Fish is really v hard up on money, they still have the option to release a certain percentage of shares into the market. and remain listed....that will give them around 150million to spare... so this move may further shows that they are pretty confident in getting the loan done...cheers!

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20-Mar-2014 10:27

China Fishery / China Fishery - Low PE

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Tomorrow or next week the latest.

The availabilty of bridging loans and the interest rate they charge will indicate how strong or good the deal is rated.

Copeinca has approx US250 mil of bonds financincing at 9,75%' If they can refinance this also at a low rate say below 5%, then at least the Bankers are confident. Heard Citic, DBS Standchart HSBC and RubberBank are club members.

The terms of the loans and the schedule will tell a lot .

Sit upright for the ride. Weak holders bail out. This is a US$ 1plus stock, if you go by Carlye track record.

SLPY69 ( Date: 20-Mar-2014 09:49) Posted:

We are days away from the announcement .... is a question of when they are going to announce it.

" The company continues to generate cash flows and therefore it's less likely for the bridge-loan lenders to pull the credit line at this moment," Lim Su Aik, an analyst at Fitch, said in a Feb. 27 interview in Singapore.

Liquidity wise, from what they announced, they seem very confident that they have the necessary financial backing. I think it was said somewhere where the refinancing isn't a problem since some of the banks providing the refinancing were also involved in the bridging loan also or something along that lines.

Saving grace for Olam is Temasek Holdings and for Greater China Fishery ..... Carlyle Group. Is there any wonder why all the Independent Directors defended Carlyle when the minority shareholders felt unfair that the warrants was awarded to them. I'm sure they have been contributing to the success of Copeinca's Acquisition. Just look at the price tag Fosun is willing to pay for a lesser company Diamante as compared to Copeinca.

Skylinr has provided the link http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Carlyle_Group

Sometimes the obvious is right in front of us, but we are always waiting for someone to take the plunge ...

According to reports, foreign funds are surging back into this region .... I am sure they will be looking for stocks that are attractive. Greater China Fishery is attractive and undervalued. Smiley

Cheers

Skylinr ( Date: 20-Mar-2014 00:14) Posted:

My understanding is that it is a compulsory acquisition as they already owned almost all of the shares. Give the remaining few shareholders an opportunity to liquidate their shares. So its more to meet their legal requirements. I believe they already took this into account when acquiring Copeinca, so nothing additional on their part.

Liquidity wise, from what they announced, they seem very confident that they have the necessary financial backing. I think it was said somewhere where the refinancing isn't a problem since some of the banks providing the refinancing were also involved in the bridging loan also or something along that lines.

China Fishery aside, our fellow investor Carlyle Group is quite an interesting company to read up on. Just for reading purposes for those who haven't Smiley

All the best to all vested! Smiley

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19-Mar-2014 09:01

Olam Intl / OLAM_OLAM

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Olam AR2013 note 23 on borrowings what 1.2bil debt maturing you are referring to.

All borrowings current are normal bank day to day business.

There will be 1bill plus debt if they are going ahead with the gabonbon fertilizer under the existing structure of 60+%

AddLuck ( Date: 17-Mar-2014 17:51) Posted:

Try this as logic (my feel only):

1)with $1.2 bil debt maturing soon...don't want muddy MW to rock the house again...they may borrow share to short sell Olam.

2) cut- off the supply of share borrowing by owning all shares...... no share to borrow means no short selling....... in few words, it means rescuing Olam.....Temasek will be responsible for debt issue when maturity date arrive.

Believed Temasek allow listing to continue.

Leongsan ( Date: 17-Mar-2014 17:34) Posted:

What to do now?

Why Temasek want to buy more shares? They must know something more than us.

Why is CEO Sunny not selling?

Why is Chanrai selling 5% to Temasek

With Temasek why should we worry about more debt.

Please examine logically. Help please.

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18-Mar-2014 10:13

Olam Intl / OLAM_OLAM

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At this morning coffee session with my Hainanese retirees, I asked for guidiance on the Temasek offer.

My average cost including dividends is below S$1.50. I concur with them that there are great value and potential in Olam. Africa is a great story, and Olam has the history and experience.

To stay betting safe, I am advised to accept the offer. Buy the warrant at present price US$0.505.

I therefore take all my money back, and ride with Temasek.

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17-Mar-2014 20:14

Olam Intl / OLAM_OLAM

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I do not consider Muddy Waters a factor. They came sold short made a lot of noise to drive the market done, made their killing and left long time ago.

Temasek is not a charity and will not do anything if they have nothing to gain. They will not lose big money just to carry the singapore flag.

Temasek is also taking over the convertible loan with high conversion of S$2.98.They also want the warrants but are not paying any premium for the remaining time 3years 9months.

They also extracted first right of refusal from the founding shareholders.

Looks like they want to control Olam in the long term and want it to grow faster with their financial power on loans and borrowings.

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17-Mar-2014 17:34

Olam Intl / OLAM_OLAM

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17-Mar-2014 17:23

China Fishery / China Fishery - Low PE

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Are we fishing here with hand line ?

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