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Latest Posts By sheerluck - Supreme      About sheerluck
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15-Oct-2014 12:08 Nam Cheong   /   Nam Cheong       Go to Message
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Wow NCL kanna wrecked down so much in last few days.   Forward PE now dropped to 7.   Even so, Market sentimental so bad now even PE 7, share buyback and directors' buying also no helping.   Rough ride ahead.   Will the anticipated Q3 resuts delivers and will NCL turnaround in the turmoiled market?   Will NCL stands up high among its peers?
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18-Sep-2014 10:41 Nam Cheong   /   Nam Cheong       Go to Message
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http://www.sharesinv.com/articles/2014/09/11/oil-gas-face-strong-headwinds/

O& G Faces Strong Headwinds! Brace Yourselves! Or Not&hellip
  1. Recently, companies in the oil and gas sector have been taking a beating in markets due to the appearance of strong headwinds.
  2. In particular, counters involved in OSVs have been particularly affected after Petronas warned that there could be an oversupply in Malaysia.
  3. However, other emerging countries like Mexico and Brazil are still buoyant markets for O& G counters.


Oil price also dropping......

macro factors...
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22-Aug-2014 19:55 Ley Choon   /   Ley Choon       Go to Message
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Tthe resutls is whole lot worse than expected.   About $9mil of unclaimable revenue due to specs of work.   Why did Ley Choon deivates from the scope in the first place?   Additional cost of $12.2mil and is likely to stay as mostly due to worker levy and material.   Even accoutning for these two the gross profit is zero.

It is going to take a while for LC to recover from this blow.

Not a call to buy/sell.   pls dydd.  

Jimmykohkk      ( Date: 22-Aug-2014 19:13) Posted:



Results just out:

Net profit after tax

The Group reported a net loss after tax of $26.0 million for Q2FY14 compared to a net profit after tax of $2.1 million for Q2FY13 due to the various reasons as disclosed above.

Gone case

sheerluck      ( Date: 26-Apr-2014 20:51) Posted:



Ley Choon business is sound.   Mostly govt jobs with little risk of bad debt.   However, two points to note:

- huge debt (mostly short term suggesting a need to improve working captial).   gearing 1.5x. financial cost from this eats away 1/3 of its profit.

- margin eroison with any further increase in foreigh worker levy.

Unfortunately, its share place is so low that any fund raising by share placemnt will dilute its EPS too much.   What it needs to do is to negotiate a better payment schedule for its work.   Get the cash in quick to reduce the hugh short term loan.   This should help to improve its earning through a lowered financial cost.

They will also need to keep an eye on their porject management to prevent losses from unapproved work and variation order.

Excluding all the once-offs in the last two FY, core PE is 12-13, price-to-book is 0.9.   Let see what their Q1 reporting card reveals.

 


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14-Aug-2014 20:27 MarcoPolo Marine   /   Marco Polo - IPO       Go to Message
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Unimpressive results.   The CEO still sweet sweet honeymoon with Vivian Hsu?  devil
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14-Aug-2014 20:22 QT Vascular   /   QT Vascular Going BIG       Go to Message
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There are alot of S-chips that got SGX approval for listing so why would it not allow QTV listing?   Moreever it was backed up by EDB with our taxpayers money.

Anyway results wise hm...lets see....

Revenue has been increasing for the last six quarters.   Its appears good but it actually came at the expense of selling a lot more units at a much low price.   8,321 units for revenue of US$3.2mil is roughly US$388 per unit.   FY13 Q2, revenue per unit is US$579.   But since QTV is a progressing company with new products and new approval, really, very little point compare same quarter last FY.   It definitely give you a better outcome which is jurassic.   More appropiriate to compare to last quarter.

Q1 revenue per unit is US$602.   So why the sudden big drop in revenue per unit???   GPM dropped from FY13 Q4 of 35% to 12% last quarter to 5.6% this quarter.   All the distribution agreements are suppose to push the sale which it does but not the margin.   So are the distributors taking a bigger cut or is the market too competitive.   Could be both but  competitive  market is already mentioned as a risk in the IPO prospectus.

Finance cost recorded a US$4mil increase from last quarter mainly due to expensse incurr on convertible note but should be a one-off expense.

Current EV/Revenue is 25.   Typical US bio-tech EV/Revenue  is about 10.   So QTV needs to record sale of US17mil or sell 44k unit to get its  EV/Revenue down to  10.   Shouldn' t be difficult with all these distribution channels set up.

Lets give it another two quarters to see how their sale perform.

Not a call to do anything.  wink
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14-Aug-2014 19:22 Medi Lifestyle   /   IEV - decent results and promising developments       Go to Message
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Q2 results out.   While I don' t expect firework, IEV this quarter results slightly disappoints me.

They record a RM5.5mil net profit but is boosted by a one-off gain of RM8.9mil from divestment from its Vietnam invesmtment.   Removing this one-off, this quarter is loss-making.   worrying bit is that IEV is not out of the wood with D21 yet.   The only hope for this hopeless turnkey is the cost recovery from its US contractors.

Not a call to buy/sell.   Pls DYDD.

 
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13-Aug-2014 22:30 Courts Asia   /   Courts Asia       Go to Message
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Q1 results are out.   Rather disappointing.   While gross profit increases, marketing, rental and impairmnt cost also increases ending with unimpressive quarter earning.

Anticipating a better Q2 but get ready for a bumpy ride till then.

Not a call to sell/buy.   pls dydd.   frown
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11-Aug-2014 15:07 Nam Cheong   /   Nam Cheong       Go to Message
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Latest TP from house

OSKDMG 58cts
OCBC 55cts
KIMENG 55cts
LIM& TAN 53cts
CIMB 52cts
DBSVickers 52cts

scary!!!!

OSK has been a stanuch believer of NCL.   It mentioned of new products launch.   Hm.......   Lets see if they can reveal some info in their next  analyst report.

*****************************************************************************************************************************************************************************

Nam Cheong (NCL SP, BUY, TP: SGD0.58)
High Anticipation Over 17 Oct Launch
Results Review
Nam Cheong delivered strong 2Q14 PATMI of MYR63.3m (+55% y-o-y, -11% q-o-q), above our MYR55m previewed estimate. 
During the results briefing, management revealed that it will launch new products in Singapore on 17 Oct, which we think will 
generate significant buzz in the offshore industry.
We increase our FY14F-FY16F forecasts by 5/4/2%, and raise our TP to 
SGD0.58 (from SGD0.53), based on 10x blended FY14F/FY15F P/E.
Analyst: Lee Yue Jer, CFA, +65 6232 3898
Previous Report: Nam Cheong 2Q14 Results Preview (BUY) - Buy On Dips Before Results (5 August 2014)

*****************************************************************************************************************************************************************************

As usual DYDD.   wink

 
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07-Aug-2014 16:07 Figtree   /   Figtree       Go to Message
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Big drop today.   Getting very attractive.   What' s the hidden downside?
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06-Aug-2014 21:48 Rex Intl   /   Rex International       Go to Message
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Indeed.   KRIS and RHP made money from the " P" part of the E& P and Rex made (tried to) money  from the " E" part of the E& P.

nstar0227      ( Date: 06-Aug-2014 21:30) Posted:



Octavia - Is it appropriate to compare rex with krisenergy, RH Petro? Nature of business seems to be different in the first place..

What is the immed support for it?

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06-Aug-2014 00:22 Rex Intl   /   Rex International       Go to Message
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i want to grow taller so I dun short.   But good luck to you, bro!wink

HVRRVH      ( Date: 05-Aug-2014 23:57) Posted:



Dont gap down too much tomorrow my rex! I want to short! Who want to join me to short? Ki qiu! 

sheerluck      ( Date: 05-Aug-2014 23:53) Posted:



Funny, even their super duper REXONIC also record losses.......


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05-Aug-2014 23:53 Rex Intl   /   Rex International       Go to Message
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Funny, even their super duper REXONIC also record losses.......
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05-Aug-2014 20:16 Vard   /   Vard Holdings       Go to Message
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This came as a surprise albeit a nasty one.   While it seems like the overrun in the Brazilian yard is almost at the end of the tunnel, the Brazil Tax Authority threw a spanner in the works.   It makes investing in VARD pretty damp now with this long-term overcast.

 
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22-Jul-2014 02:38 Vard   /   Vard Holdings       Go to Message
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While condition in Brazil still presented challenges for VARD, it  is gradually improving from its 2013Q2 results.   I wonder if the market is happy with the pace of improvement.

 
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19-Jul-2014 04:17 Rex Intl   /   Rex International       Go to Message
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REX might book a small revenue since they said they are putting one already drilled  well in the Cory Moruga block on production but yes it seems the main bulk will start in Q4.   It may take a while to ramp up to 500bpd so assuming they are at full rate for two months, we might be looking at about USD3mil as revenue.   After deducting expenses (including the CEO $2mil pay), REX probably end 2014 with losses.   Nothing we not expecting here.

There is no gain from the Inniss-Trinity sale.   REX paid USD9mil for 51.99% stake in  CARIBBEAN REX as announced in their 14 Aug 2013  statement.   In Oct 2013 they increased their stake to 64.17% at a cost of USD3mil.   So total cost is USD12mil.   The acquisition comes with three oilfields.   We don' t know what is their reserves but using are as a guide, Inniss-Trinity is about 40% of the three.   based on this assumption,  Inniss-Trinity share of cost is roughly USD4.8mil.   So I think this wouldn' t contribute anything to their earning in Q3 unless their book the sale but ignore any cost associated with it.

I thought REX said their strategy is to sell oil in ground.   Now they are digging out oil to sell so are they really doing both??

AddLuck      ( Date: 19-Jul-2014 00:06) Posted:



From my analysis of   their update, no revenue for 2nd and 3rd   quarter......... 4th quarter maybe 500barrels per day till maybe a further 5quarters for Oman to start . 

HVRRVH      ( Date: 18-Jul-2014 23:56) Posted:



I would like to look at their upcoming quarterly report. Still no revenue? 


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19-Jul-2014 01:43 NeraTel   /   Nera Telecommunications - The hidden Gem       Go to Message
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NeraTel is great for defensive and dividend play if the purchase price is 63cts or less.

It went up to over 80cts last year because of Myanmar story which didn' t (haven' t) materalised.

My view is at current price it is no longer attractive as both defensive and dividend play unless there are sign of growth in its topline and bottomline whether from Myanmar or not.

My 2cts.

john_ric      ( Date: 18-Jul-2014 23:39) Posted:



i think this laggard is moving.

it offers ~~5% dividend.

not a bad stock to hold for long term.

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19-Jul-2014 01:36 Medi Lifestyle   /   IEV - decent results and promising developments       Go to Message
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PROJECT UPDATE: PT. IEV PABUARAN KSO

http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/IEV_Ann-KSO%20Project%20Update_FINAL.ashx?App=Announcement& FileID=305883

KSO project is progressing well.   IEV is now ready to sell oil when oil comes.   Oil production is expected in the last quarter of this year.   Based on this, I am not expected any firework on Q2 and Q3 results.   But Q4 and especailly FY15 Q1 should be very encouraging.

Time for me to look out for opportunties to accumulate.

DYDD.  wink

 
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08-Jul-2014 20:51 Figtree   /   Figtree       Go to Message
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si mi lai liao?

chapteroflife      ( Date: 08-Jul-2014 20:13) Posted:



Lai liao.. 

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08-Jul-2014 16:59 Medi Lifestyle   /   IEV - decent results and promising developments       Go to Message
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Its biomass is planned for production in Feb 2015.  

http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/Ann-IEV%20Biomass%20Vietnam%20JSC%20-Final.ashx?App=Announcement& FileID=304474
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06-Jul-2014 18:44 JES Intl   /   JES International Holdings       Go to Message
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This deal is a no-brainer.   JES issues  302,007,000 shares + USD30mil for a guaranteed PBT of USD170mil for four years.   At last closed price of 9.6cts, that  302,007,000 shares are worth about SGD29mil or USD23mil.   JES should fly on this deal. But......

Let' s see what the SCIBOIS CO. LTD or  two Yangs gets.   Oh same as above  302,007,000 shares + USD30mil but based on clause 4.5, they agreed to loaned JES that  USD30mil.   So effectively they are not get any cash but the  302,007,000 shares first.

Next question, why would  SCIBOIS want to get into this deal with JES?   Synergies or fund?   Nothing on synergies since JES and  SCIBOIS business are entrely different and mgmt already stated they are not going to be involved in the business of  SCIBOIS (clause 3.1).   Since they are not getting cash upfront, the only way to convert those shares to cash is to sell those shares, right?   Imagine what offloading  302,007,000 shares to the market mean to the share prices of JES.   All I can say is the two yangs are getting USD23mil worth of shares at existing JES shareholders expenses and because there are so little known about  SCIBOIS you can only trust what JES said about this company and trust in this coy is what is lacking for me.

What does JES gains.   One obivious benefit is a boost to its share prices on news which can help to maintain the loan with Lyceum.   In fact now I started to link the facts that JES keep coming up with all these super duper deals to support its share prices to  maintain its loan with Lyceum.   If this deal is handled by another company, I might give it more creditability.   But because it is JES, I give none.

Just sharing my two cent thoughts and not a call to trade/buy/sell/contra/short/long/CFD/whatsoever.   DYDD.   wink

 
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