Latest Posts By lyn_lyn
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| 06-Oct-2015 09:04 |
Yoma Strategic
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yoma.....growth story
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0.38......yoma staedy! lyn lyn WINNING BIG...... THUMBS DOWN EAT SHiitssss...........
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| 06-Oct-2015 09:02 |
CapitaLand
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This is a BUY!!!
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YES!!.....2.90.....looking forward.....3.00
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| 06-Oct-2015 08:48 |
CapitaLand
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This is a BUY!!!
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Property cooling measures should be reduced Although Singapore runs a surplus almost every election cycle, this surplus excludes land sales. Thus, the city-state runs a much larger &ldquo surplus&rdquo than reported in the budget. While the International Monetary Fund treats land sales as revenues, Singapore&rsquo s Ministry of Finance treats land sales as capital receipts. What this means is that land sales are added to the country&rsquo s past reserves as capital gains/losses. According to URA, from January 2011 to September 2015, commercial, hotel, white, industrial, residential (excluding landed housing) and other sites amounted to some $24 billion in land sales. This figure excluded land sales from HDB for executive condominium (ECs), built-toorder and Design, Build and Sell Scheme sites. As Singapore maintains a balanced budget, it is puzzling why there is still a need to release so many land parcels, considering that the sales proceeds are not even considered revenues to balance a budget, but are parked away into reserves. According to URA, there are 64,437 private non-landed units to be completed between 2H2015 and 2019, based on 2Q2015 forecasts. An estimated 11,105 non-landed, 513 landed and 1,573 EC units will be completed in 2H2015. On the other hand, demand over the past one decade for private non-landed homes averaged only 8,000 units annually, based on the change in occupied stock for non-landed homes. On a separate note, there were around 40,000 unsold units in the pipeline (private and ECs) as at end-2Q2015. If the current trend of 8,000 new sales annually were to continue, we would have five years of supply overhang in the pipeline, even assuming that all land sales are stopped now until 2019. The oversupply would affect 2016 the most where there are 20,381 non-landed units expected to be completed. From 2005 to 2014, Singapore&rsquo s population grew 1.3 million and housing stock rose 171,870 units, indicating that there are 7.58 people per household (see table). This is more than double the average Singaporean&rsquo s household size of 3.5 to 3.6, which could be partly because workers either stay in dormitories or rent rooms or domestic helpers stay with their employers. 
If we are working on 64,000 units becoming ready in 2H2015 through 2019, that works out to an average of new 15,000 units a year, whereas our current demand trend is 8,000 units. This indicates a possible build-up of unsold units numbering 25,000 to 30,000 in four years&rsquo time, which will add to the already elevated private residential unsold rate. How many foreigners do we need to fill these units? Based on 7.58 people per household, it will take a population growth of 227,000 within the next three to four years to fill up 30,000 vacant units, whether it is via renting or buying. Foreigners will find it costly, as the additional buyer&rsquo s stamp duty is punitive at 15% and means substantial cash upfront for a property purchase. For example, 18% in ABSD and BSD would amount to about $180,000 for a $1 million property, which will take several years of aggressive savings. Many foreigners are most likely to end up renting a place in Singapore, in support of the rental market. Will housing reach negative equity levels in five years? Singapore&rsquo s housing prices are gradually dropping at 3% to 5% a year. Core Central Region seems to be holding out better than Outside Central Region. A property bought at $1.25 million with a loan of $1 million (at an 80% loan-to-value ratio) would be $1 million in valuation in five years. The loan balance will be about $870,000 if interest rates stay at the same level. We would have a property valued at $1 million and loan outstanding of $870,000. Loan-to-value has increased to 87%, but is still not in the dangerous negative equity zone, as long as the economy is not severely affected. Do we need to help the developers? While could argue that developers have themselves to blame for bidding high prices for land only to be stuck with unsold stock, they are merely proxy &ldquo tax&rdquo or &ldquo capital receipts&rdquo collectors on behalf of the government, which is the largest landlord and controls immigration policies. Perhaps the root cause is the over-eagerness of the government to release as much land supply as possible during attractive pricing to fill the reserves, while constricting supply when land prices are low to smooth out market volatility. Conclusion As property prices are gradually dropping and rents are also weakening on the back of a looming oversupply, there will be a need to solve the vacancy challenge. The government is keen to increase the population to solve many problems but, with the weakening economy, employment growth may be muted. At the very least, ABSD needs to be reduced for foreigners as well as for Singaporeans and permanent residents buying at least their second property, as long as their total debt servicing ratio (TDSR) meets the guidelines. As negative equity will not happen in an orderly decline of prices, there is now increased incentive to help developers clear some of their unsold stock via a reduction in ABSD for foreigners. TDSR is a good policy and it should stay to ensure financial prudence. It is artificially reducing demand for property, however, not because of its debt nature, but because of the amount of paperwork required to check the compliance to &ldquo total debt&rdquo servicing ratio, such as obtaining car loan statements and credit card statements. Perhaps the Monetary Authority of Singapore could coordinate a bureau where such information is shared in a better manner so that buyers do not need to fulfill onerous paperwork submission. Otherwise, MAS could also require all financial services providers to provide monthly statements three days upon receiving requests by customers who require them for bank financing purposes. TDSR could be relaxed for people with high income or business owners to allow them greater flexibility in leveraging and gaining access to funds to create employment. |
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| 06-Oct-2015 08:46 |
CapitaLand
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This is a BUY!!!
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lyn lyn said this......and investors increasingly believe any Fed action is off the table for the rest of the year.....
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| 06-Oct-2015 08:39 |
Yoma Strategic
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yoma.....growth story
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yoma.....0.40 coming?!...... stay very tuned.....
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| 06-Oct-2015 08:33 |
Yoma Strategic
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yoma.....growth story
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yesterday.....closed at day high....0.37....
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| 05-Oct-2015 16:03 |
CapitaLand
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This is a BUY!!!
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2.90......coming?! |
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| 05-Oct-2015 14:17 |
Yoma Strategic
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yoma.....growth story
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Yoma ....steady!.....continue to move UP!..... shortits will push the price higher..... short volume on 2 Oct 2015......777,900,000......shorted % = 39.23 % |
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| 05-Oct-2015 14:12 |
Yoma Strategic
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yoma.....growth story
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earning results coming.....yeah!....
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| 05-Oct-2015 14:10 |
Yoma Strategic
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yoma.....growth story
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| 05-Oct-2015 14:07 |
Yoma Strategic
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yoma.....growth story
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inverted head & shoulders in the making.....
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| 05-Oct-2015 14:05 |
Yoma Strategic
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yoma.....growth story
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retest 0.365 several attempts.....
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| 05-Oct-2015 14:04 |
Yoma Strategic
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yoma.....growth story
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yoma....broke 0.365......touched 0.37.... |
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| 05-Oct-2015 11:46 |
Yoma Strategic
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yoma.....growth story
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Aberdeen has raised its equity stake in Yoma Strategic to 10% from 9%......... which .....adds confidence of the current implied value at current levels........ |
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| 05-Oct-2015 11:43 |
Yoma Strategic
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yoma.....growth story
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Yoma : Disposal Of 25% Stake In Digicel Asian Holdings For US$20 Million Above Carrying Value. 02 Oct 2015 19:38
Based on the agreed enterprise value of US$221 million, the equity value, enterprise value less net debt, of Yoma Strategic Holdings Limited' s 25% interest in Digicel Asian Holdings Pte Limited is approximately US$20 million above its carrying value... |
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| 05-Oct-2015 11:40 |
Yoma Strategic
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yoma.....growth story
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Malaysia .....people " drown" with haze.... Singapore.....hazy hazy too.... Indonesia.....the main culprit...... Thailand......tourism gotten a hit after the Bomb.... Myanmar.....yeah!....you are so far......so GOOD......
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| 05-Oct-2015 11:21 |
Yoma Strategic
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yoma.....growth story
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hello Yoma!...... |
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| 05-Oct-2015 09:17 |
CapitaLand
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This is a BUY!!!
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shortist!.....die pain ....pain..... cooling measures lifing soon!
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| 05-Oct-2015 09:03 |
CapitaLand
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This is a BUY!!!
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LOL.......2.86...okie....
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| 05-Oct-2015 09:01 |
CapitaLand
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This is a BUY!!!
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WAH!!.....2.95.....ummmmmmmmmmmm
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