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Container freight rates softening despite the surge in BDI.
Despite the surge in BDI, when comparing over a longer time horizon, BDI level is still significantly below peak or even the more normalised levels of 2,000-6,000. Furthermore, BDI reflects the bulk shipping market and is not representative of the whole shipping market. The container shipping market remains weak as evidenced by the fall in Shanghai Containerised Freight Index. While Maersk has raised their demand growth in 2014-2015 to 4-6% from 2-3%,
the increased capacity expected to come in from shipyards still far exceeds the expected demand growth given thet 10-11% growth in capacity this year. This creates a huge supply-demand gap which we believed continue to cap rate increases.
BDI level above 1400 is consider good for shipping company already, but they are taking the over shoot abnormal period to normalize, thus consider below peak??? That means when the BDI is abnormal then we should consider picking up the share.
This type of thinking is very funny to me?
CCFI fall?? The index is hover around 1100 pts. Up and down, there isn?t any fall. Beside that Yang Zi Jiang order does not mainly come from the China shipper, why are they consider China freight rate.
cheongsl ( Date: 03-Oct-2013 21:30) Posted:
Yes, it is possible to have +ve and -ve report as individual have different level of understanding to one situation.
Eg. Kim Eng Report which mention as below.
" BDI rise led by mainly by capesize rates. The positive expectation was fueled by a sudden surge in BDI. This may have been driven by Chinese steel producers restocking their iron-ore
inventory and importing cheaper and higher quality seaborne supplies from Australia over domestic supplies. Historically bulker rates have been volatile and had rose during this same period at least for the last 3 years prior in the led up to Chinese Golden Weak. Furthermore, the recent rise was mainly driven mainly by rate hikes for capesize vessels. We are skeptical about its sustainability without convincing signs of an economic recovery. China?s September PMI came in at 51.1, below market expectations which cast further doubts on a sustained economic
rebound."
BDI is driven by steel producer restocking their iron-ore inventory??? and rose in same period due to Chinese golden week???
Lets take a look at BCI, the major increase is actually due to Atlantic Freight not Pacific Freight, if Kim Eng researches think that China is in Atlantic boundary then they better go back to secondary to study Geogarphy.
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Atlantic
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Pacific
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4/6 months
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39750
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29500
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1 year
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26000
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23250
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2 years
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21750
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21250
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Rose in the same period
2010 is from Jun to Aug
2011 is from Jul to Sep
2012 is from Sep to Nov
2013 is from Jul to ??
China Golden week for national day is 1 Oct, does not see the consistency in their arguement.
The rate hikes is mainly from capesize vessels? but when you computed the data you will find that Panamax size also contribute significantly to the increase.
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BCI
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BPI
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BSI
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Yesterday (USD)
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36069
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14316
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11369
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1 year ago (USD)
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9114
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3957
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8464
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% Increase
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295.75%
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261.79%
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34.32%
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They talking about PMI of china as they already focus the wrong area the rise was due to the atlantic transportation.
That is why I am sketical about the report.
ascend88 ( Date: 03-Oct-2013 16:12) Posted:
in every +ve report....its good to have a few -ve ones too....
at least it will bring some sense back to us....
if all reports are super good ...super +ve ...and all buy buy buy call....then i will be very scare...
read and research more into it....
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Yes, it is possible to have +ve and -ve report as individual have different level of understanding to one situation.
Eg. Kim Eng Report which mention as below.
" BDI rise led by mainly by capesize rates. The positive expectation was fueled by a sudden surge in BDI. This may have been driven by Chinese steel producers restocking their iron-ore
inventory and importing cheaper and higher quality seaborne supplies from Australia over domestic supplies. Historically bulker rates have been volatile and had rose during this same period at least for the last 3 years prior in the led up to Chinese Golden Weak. Furthermore, the recent rise was mainly driven mainly by rate hikes for capesize vessels. We are skeptical about its sustainability without convincing signs of an economic recovery. China?s September PMI came in at 51.1, below market expectations which cast further doubts on a sustained economic
rebound."
BDI is driven by steel producer restocking their iron-ore inventory??? and rose in same period due to Chinese golden week???
Lets take a look at BCI, the major increase is actually due to Atlantic Freight not Pacific Freight, if Kim Eng researches think that China is in Atlantic boundary then they better go back to secondary to study Geogarphy.
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Atlantic
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Pacific
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4/6 months
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39750
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29500
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1 year
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26000
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23250
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2 years
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21750
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21250
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Rose in the same period
2010 is from Jun to Aug
2011 is from Jul to Sep
2012 is from Sep to Nov
2013 is from Jul to ??
China Golden week for national day is 1 Oct, does not see the consistency in their arguement.
The rate hikes is mainly from capesize vessels? but when you computed the data you will find that Panamax size also contribute significantly to the increase.
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BCI
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BPI
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BSI
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Yesterday (USD)
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36069
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14316
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11369
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1 year ago (USD)
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9114
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3957
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8464
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% Increase
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295.75%
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261.79%
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34.32%
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They talking about PMI of china as they already focus the wrong area the rise was due to the atlantic transportation.
That is why I am sketical about the report.
ascend88 ( Date: 03-Oct-2013 16:12) Posted:
in every +ve report....its good to have a few -ve ones too....
at least it will bring some sense back to us....
if all reports are super good ...super +ve ...and all buy buy buy call....then i will be very scare...
read and research more into it....
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Did not see the publish Jan 2013, if based and Jan 2013 and 18months ago the Steel price in china is around 450USD per tonne and 620USD per tonne respectively.
cheongsl ( Date: 02-Oct-2013 07:21) Posted:
China Steel price 18months ago is around 590USD per tonne, currently only around 490USD per tonne.
Hawkeye ( Date: 02-Oct-2013 00:31) Posted:
YZJ discount 10,000TEUs
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China's Yangzijiang Shipbuilding has recently won additional four 10,000TEU containerships from Canadian shipowner Seaspan.
The newbuilding price, however is 10% lower from original contractual price, falling to $90m from $100m apiece over the last 18 months.
The four vessels are part of 18 options attached to a contract for seven 10,000TEU boxships between the Canadian owner and the Chinese yard signed back in June 2011.
A Yangzijiang official said the quartet are still profitable as the yard will have become more cost-effective after building the first seven same-type ships.
Published : January 29, 2013 |
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China Steel price 18months ago is around 590USD per tonne, currently only around 490USD per tonne.
Hawkeye ( Date: 02-Oct-2013 00:31) Posted:
YZJ discount 10,000TEUs
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China's Yangzijiang Shipbuilding has recently won additional four 10,000TEU containerships from Canadian shipowner Seaspan.
The newbuilding price, however is 10% lower from original contractual price, falling to $90m from $100m apiece over the last 18 months.
The four vessels are part of 18 options attached to a contract for seven 10,000TEU boxships between the Canadian owner and the Chinese yard signed back in June 2011.
A Yangzijiang official said the quartet are still profitable as the yard will have become more cost-effective after building the first seven same-type ships.
Published : January 29, 2013 |
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frozentouch ( Date: 01-Oct-2013 23:47) Posted:
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I am hoping for 5.5 cents dividend, if the momentum of ship order wins continue at the current or improving margins. |
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korea and japan open positively.
bishan22 ( Date: 01-Oct-2013 08:22) Posted:
Most counters will lao again before rebound. Good luck.
williamyeo ( Date: 01-Oct-2013 07:54) Posted:
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not necessary, depend on how you look at it. Yu is a non executive director. selling of all the share may suggest a change in director board or shift in power.About 55,000lots in total sell, who are the buyer?
eurekaw ( Date: 30-Sep-2013 22:35) Posted:
not a good news though
oldflyingfox ( Date: 30-Sep-2013 21:53) Posted:
Announced in SGX after closing today that one of the director, Yu Kebing sold off all him shares (abt 1.4%) today. I wonder is he leaving and who is that buyer? It was worth more than a cool 6 millions dollars.
I sold some before closing today to protect some profit. If $1.09 could not hold for next few days, a deeper collection may come after 2 months of run up. Next support will be at $1.09/1.06/1.00 |
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The bulk order from Cosco to Yang zi jiang for the shipbuilding was around BDI 2000, thus if the BDI can maintain at current level, most likely the company profit margin will be good. That is what I think.
samson ( Date: 27-Sep-2013 12:18) Posted:
I have post why cosco . Still can't move up fast .
The Q3 for cosco is very important . Need to show investors good profits .
Then fund will come in and buy .
We just waiting and see .
The rewardsall depending on Q3 results may be on 3 nov - 5 nov 2013
Hope you don't give up so easy
Can make money . 5 nov flying up $1
Good luck to all still support cosco. Hope my wishes can come ture .
Had a niceweeks end
8356
Hawkeye ( Date: 27-Sep-2013 09:45) Posted:
Cosco has never ask money from shareholders. When Cosco need money in the past year, Cosco China pump money into Cosco Singapore and Cosco Singapore issue shares to Cosco China.
Cosco is generous in dividend payout although lesser than Yangzijiang. Cosco payout is 50% of EPS where Yangzijiang only pay 25% of EPS.
When Cosco earn money in the past, Cosco issue Bonus Dividend, where Yangzijiang keep money to lend to others. SO |
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YZJ core business is shipbuilding, but they also involve in financial activities, selling of parts, rental of ship (those ship that the order was cancel they either sell cheaper or rent out, actual the building cost should have already recover), property, etc.
BDI figure is fluctuating base on demand, shipping industries is directly impact, but does not move so fast initially, but subsequently if it can maintain at certain high level, shipping business might move faster. but ship building once contract sign the mobilize will lock in, and subsequently design, manufacturing, even if the customer regret and cancel the order, the money collect, is just like a free vessel for rentalling out. So the reaction for BDI will be different for different stage.
muifan ( Date: 24-Sep-2013 22:00) Posted:
Hi all ,
I got a curious question.
To my understanding..YZJ is purely a 100% ship building company...
are they involve in any shipping activities like cosco or NOL? I am not very sure..
cos if they are only building ship...how come when BDI surge ,
YZJ chiong the most while NOL and COSCO who have shipping business and directly
impact with BDI chiong slower than YZJ?
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This is a free market, people can buy or sell as per their require. Unless the director/CEO or main management buy before the good news and sell after the good news then you can query about the insider trade.
But where is the news of Keppel corporation limited director sell 5000lots of share?
I check the SGX, only annouce buying of 5000shares which is 5lots by the director/CEO on 18sep (Sgx release on 19sep), and the director/CEO is only having an interest of 117.2lots. You mean she buy 5lots on 18sep and shot sell on 19sep???
samson ( Date: 19-Sep-2013 22:28) Posted:
This is alway happen when company announed secure news contracts and the share ready higher. the Director/Chief Executive Officer who may also be a substantial will sell they share to you
today KEPPEL CORPORATION LIMITED Director sell 5000 lots
end up you may hold the share for them.
ascend88 ( Date: 19-Sep-2013 08:47) Posted:
good dividend aside...
not forgetting captial gain....
which counter can give me the higest capital gain with good dividend...
holding my yang yang tight tight |
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correction his interest is 1.0032billion shares.
cheongsl ( Date: 20-Sep-2013 04:56) Posted:
Why 1000lots, for 5cts divident is 50+ million, isn't it 50k??
He is collecting 50+million divident is because he have an interest of 1.032billion of Yang's Share.
If the public float share are all being buyup, then Yang's will be violating the Listing rule 723.
Hawkeye ( Date: 20-Sep-2013 00:32) Posted:
1000lot? 5cts dividend his collection is 50+million
He should have bought back 100000lot then that is something. Ha Ha Ha
Yzj has about 1billion share floating in the market |
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Why 1000lots, for 5cts divident is 50+ million, isn't it 50k??
He is collecting 50+million divident is because he have an interest of 1.032billion of Yang's Share.
If the public float share are all being buyup, then Yang's will be violating the Listing rule 723.
Hawkeye ( Date: 20-Sep-2013 00:32) Posted:
1000lot? 5cts dividend his collection is 50+million
He should have bought back 100000lot then that is something. Ha Ha Ha
Yzj has about 1billion share floating in the market.
oldflyingfox ( Date: 20-Sep-2013 00:29) Posted:
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I remember that the Chairman has mentioned in the AGM (think 2 years ago) that the price (at that time ard $1.2x) did not fully reflect the value of the company. And not forgetting that he has brought back 1000lots at 0.99 when the share price fell early this year. I think that the chances of buying is much higher than selling. |
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Higher divident is not true currently, unless Yang continue to rise further.
Yang Zi Jiang current price divident is 4.55% yield
Keppel Corp is 4.52%, Semb Corp Ind 2.96%, Semb Corp marine 2.88%.
Yang Divident yield is almost in par with keppel corp now, if compare to Semb corp ind, semb corp marine, it need to at least rise to $1.70.
samson ( Date: 18-Sep-2013 23:49) Posted:
Some pppl may switch to buy Sembcorp Industries .Keppel Corp . Sembcorp Marine
they all gov company higher divided and safe stocks they call bule chip .
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BDI
1822 another 82 point rise.....
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yup! ship takes year to complete, and the demand will drive the Index higher to cause more shipper to build new ship, another cycle of 2003 is at the beginning. Unless some major event happen that change the demand, otherwise long term holding will be good.
Oldbird ( Date: 17-Sep-2013 22:18) Posted:
This ship is solid, probably will retrace a bit and will resume charging. Opportunity to accumulate more for long term holding (1~2 years)
Cheers for those on board...
cheongsl ( Date: 17-Sep-2013 22:04) Posted:
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BDI index fly again now is 1740 raise of 89 points. |
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BDI index fly again now is 1740 raise of 89 points.
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two contract, how many vessel per contract and what type of ship any information?
samson ( Date: 14-Sep-2013 10:56) Posted:
Yangzijiang had secure two ship building contracts cost for us $1800 million . Total of us $3600 millions . Going to announce
Cosco also wins two +2 ship building contracts cost us $ few billions going to announced on mondays
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Even if you look at other size vessel delivery, it also clearly shown an increase in index for 2yrs period, to 1yrs period and 4/6 months period of Altantic delivery and Pacific delivery is somewhat stabilise.
cheongsl ( Date: 14-Sep-2013 05:28) Posted:
I was quite skeptical with the report that the capsize rally was driven by the iron ore demand from china.
As capsize delivery for Pacific is 13000 (4/6months) and 12700(1yrs) and 14200(2yrs)
but capsize delivery for Atlantic is 22500 (4/6months) and 15200(1yrs) and 14700(2yrs)
China demand should be from pacific delivery not Atlantic, it is more likely the recovery of Europe.
WanSiTong ( Date: 13-Sep-2013 16:14) Posted:
Dry Bulk Shipping - Will the capesize rally spread?
The BDI rally over the past month has narrowly focused on capesizes, driven by robust Chinese restocking of iron ore. Capesize rates should rise for a couple more weeks, supported by good steel demand in China, though the action may not spread to the smaller vessels.
We stay Neutral on the sector, with Pacific Basin and Maybulk as top picks as they are fundamentally strong and trading below their SOP. Stock catalysts include a gradual but broad recovery in dry bulk rates from 2014. We have an Underperform call on PSL on valuation grounds, and particularly highlight STXPO as our top sell as it is technically insolvent. We lower our target for STXPO to W295 (from W1,380) in this report.
" Freight rates and ship values have bottomed out, but there is no tangible evidence to support a sustained recovery soon."
? Pacific Basin Interim Report 2013
Broad or narrow recovery?
The average BDI has risen 52% so far this quarter from its 2Q13 average, driven almost entirely by a 142% qoq rise in capesize rates. Iron ore stocks in China are low, crude-steel production in 2013 has recovered very nicely from a lacklustre 2012, and apparent steel consumption has remained robust. The numbers coming out of China for real-estate investment, floor space under construction, and auto and white-goods production look good.
For the moment, only iron ore demand has picked up, and only capesizes are feeling the tide. While there is a small hint of recent activity on the panamax side, the supramax and handysize segments remain lacklustre. We believe this is due to a 30% ship overcapacity, 3x more than that in past cyclical troughs, which limits onward rate transmissions when only one commodity is seeing a short-term demand increase.
How long will it last?
We expect capesize rates to stay high as long as Chinese iron ore restocking continues. Once that process is done, capesize rates may drop as quickly as they had risen, going by several examples in the recent past. An interesting point is, what would happen to share prices if capesize rates correct. After all, Pacific Basin?s share price has risen 18% over the past three months, and it does not even own a single capesize vessel.
The long view
As a result of the exceptionally high surplus rate, we should not expect dry-bulk freight rates to recover by very much or very quickly. Rates should bottom out this year, then rise slowly into 2014-15, assuming there is no major ordering binge. This gives us the confidence in our Outperform calls on the best-quality companies in the sector, even if there might be some short-term volatility. (Read Report)
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I was quite skeptical with the report that the capsize rally was driven by the iron ore demand from china.
As capsize delivery for Pacific is 13000 (4/6months) and 12700(1yrs) and 14200(2yrs)
but capsize delivery for Atlantic is 22500 (4/6months) and 15200(1yrs) and 14700(2yrs)
China demand should be from pacific delivery not Atlantic, it is more likely the recovery of Europe.
WanSiTong ( Date: 13-Sep-2013 16:14) Posted:
Dry Bulk Shipping - Will the capesize rally spread?
The BDI rally over the past month has narrowly focused on capesizes, driven by robust Chinese restocking of iron ore. Capesize rates should rise for a couple more weeks, supported by good steel demand in China, though the action may not spread to the smaller vessels.
We stay Neutral on the sector, with Pacific Basin and Maybulk as top picks as they are fundamentally strong and trading below their SOP. Stock catalysts include a gradual but broad recovery in dry bulk rates from 2014. We have an Underperform call on PSL on valuation grounds, and particularly highlight STXPO as our top sell as it is technically insolvent. We lower our target for STXPO to W295 (from W1,380) in this report.
" Freight rates and ship values have bottomed out, but there is no tangible evidence to support a sustained recovery soon."
? Pacific Basin Interim Report 2013
Broad or narrow recovery?
The average BDI has risen 52% so far this quarter from its 2Q13 average, driven almost entirely by a 142% qoq rise in capesize rates. Iron ore stocks in China are low, crude-steel production in 2013 has recovered very nicely from a lacklustre 2012, and apparent steel consumption has remained robust. The numbers coming out of China for real-estate investment, floor space under construction, and auto and white-goods production look good.
For the moment, only iron ore demand has picked up, and only capesizes are feeling the tide. While there is a small hint of recent activity on the panamax side, the supramax and handysize segments remain lacklustre. We believe this is due to a 30% ship overcapacity, 3x more than that in past cyclical troughs, which limits onward rate transmissions when only one commodity is seeing a short-term demand increase.
How long will it last?
We expect capesize rates to stay high as long as Chinese iron ore restocking continues. Once that process is done, capesize rates may drop as quickly as they had risen, going by several examples in the recent past. An interesting point is, what would happen to share prices if capesize rates correct. After all, Pacific Basin?s share price has risen 18% over the past three months, and it does not even own a single capesize vessel.
The long view
As a result of the exceptionally high surplus rate, we should not expect dry-bulk freight rates to recover by very much or very quickly. Rates should bottom out this year, then rise slowly into 2014-15, assuming there is no major ordering binge. This gives us the confidence in our Outperform calls on the best-quality companies in the sector, even if there might be some short-term volatility. (Read Report)
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I was quite skeptical with the report that the capsize rally was driven by the iron ore demand from china.
As capsize delivery for Pacific is 13000 (4/6months) and 12700(1yrs) and 14200(2yrs)
but capsize delivery for Atlantic is 22500 (4/6months) and 15200(1yrs) and 14700(2yrs)
China demand should be from pacific delivery not Atlantic, it is more likely the recovery of Europe.
WanSiTong ( Date: 13-Sep-2013 16:14) Posted:
Dry Bulk Shipping - Will the capesize rally spread?
The BDI rally over the past month has narrowly focused on capesizes, driven by robust Chinese restocking of iron ore. Capesize rates should rise for a couple more weeks, supported by good steel demand in China, though the action may not spread to the smaller vessels.
We stay Neutral on the sector, with Pacific Basin and Maybulk as top picks as they are fundamentally strong and trading below their SOP. Stock catalysts include a gradual but broad recovery in dry bulk rates from 2014. We have an Underperform call on PSL on valuation grounds, and particularly highlight STXPO as our top sell as it is technically insolvent. We lower our target for STXPO to W295 (from W1,380) in this report.
" Freight rates and ship values have bottomed out, but there is no tangible evidence to support a sustained recovery soon."
? Pacific Basin Interim Report 2013
Broad or narrow recovery?
The average BDI has risen 52% so far this quarter from its 2Q13 average, driven almost entirely by a 142% qoq rise in capesize rates. Iron ore stocks in China are low, crude-steel production in 2013 has recovered very nicely from a lacklustre 2012, and apparent steel consumption has remained robust. The numbers coming out of China for real-estate investment, floor space under construction, and auto and white-goods production look good.
For the moment, only iron ore demand has picked up, and only capesizes are feeling the tide. While there is a small hint of recent activity on the panamax side, the supramax and handysize segments remain lacklustre. We believe this is due to a 30% ship overcapacity, 3x more than that in past cyclical troughs, which limits onward rate transmissions when only one commodity is seeing a short-term demand increase.
How long will it last?
We expect capesize rates to stay high as long as Chinese iron ore restocking continues. Once that process is done, capesize rates may drop as quickly as they had risen, going by several examples in the recent past. An interesting point is, what would happen to share prices if capesize rates correct. After all, Pacific Basin?s share price has risen 18% over the past three months, and it does not even own a single capesize vessel.
The long view
As a result of the exceptionally high surplus rate, we should not expect dry-bulk freight rates to recover by very much or very quickly. Rates should bottom out this year, then rise slowly into 2014-15, assuming there is no major ordering binge. This gives us the confidence in our Outperform calls on the best-quality companies in the sector, even if there might be some short-term volatility. (Read Report)
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I still remember I sell at 1.96, in 2011, did not endure up to the final point... above $2....
Oldbird ( Date: 13-Sep-2013 08:12) Posted:
If history can repeat here is how YZJ climbed from $0.4 to $2 from years 2009 to 2011
Climbed up every 20 to 30 cents in 2 to 3 months made correction 5 to 8 cents in less than a month
When it hit 1.2 ( it took only 3 Q to climb 80 cents) then corrected to 1
It then made a sharp climb to 1.6 then fell back to 1.2 just as fast .
From there it charged to 2 dollars in 4 months time.....
I think history always like to repeat itself
Cheers for those believers
cheongsl ( Date: 13-Sep-2013 07:06) Posted:
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My target price is also around $2++, that is why I mention previously I vest for long terms |
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