ShareJunction - Member Posts

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I believe in showing appreciation to people who spend time to benefit others. That's the minimum I can do. Have a great weekend.

willisow ( Date: 09-Sep-2016 22:08) Posted:

I' m here in sj for a month n we also know each other for a month, don' t have to be so polite n thanks me everytime..informal is more casual n comfortable for me :)

Nice weekend to u n nice weekend to everyone...

pinkowl ( Date: 09-Sep-2016 20:39) Posted:

Thank you.

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I' m here in sj for a month n we also know each other for a month, don' t have to be so polite n thanks me everytime..informal is more casual n comfortable for me :)

Nice weekend to u n nice weekend to everyone...

pinkowl ( Date: 09-Sep-2016 20:39) Posted:

Thank you.

willisow ( Date: 09-Sep-2016 19:20) Posted:

Subject: Interest Rate (IR)

Interest rate has a great impact on valuation becos It serve as a discount factor for future cashflow. Investors that invest in the capital mkt faces two options, bonds n equities. both bonds n equities are like weighting machine, when ir rises bond price fall n bond yield rises n drawing funds from equities in it, as a result share price will fall. That' s the reason y everyone is so concern about yellen speech.

There are different ways we can xplain how interest rate affect valuation n I will use a more simple way, dividend yield n bond yield to share with everyone. Those who are finance savy pls bear with me bcos I need to take care of those who are not trained in finance. Investment in equities besides capital gain, dividend is another form of income. Pension fund or institution fund are long term investors n dividend yield will continue to attract their investment during bad times. however they r also attracted by bond yield that will continue to give them the cashflow when times are bad.

We can extract the 10 years sg government bond yield from public info n currently it is at 1.67%. When we look at DBS, those who bought a sgd15 n below get a minimum dividend yield of 4% (0.6/15 x 100%) assuming the full year dividend is sgd0.60. Since dividend yield is much higher than bond yield, fund managers would choose to park their money in equities. They will only switch out to bonds when dbs dividend yield equalizes or below the bond yield thus DBS share price would have to increases to sgd35.93 (sgd0.6/1.67%).

If interest rate rises n resulted the rise in 10 years sg government bond yield to 2.5%, DBS share price would have to increase to sgd24 in order to have dividend yield of 2.5% as well (assume dividend paid remain unchanged). If the 10 years sg government bond yield rises to 3% then DBS share price would b sgd20 in order to produce the same dividend yield. From here we can see that as interest rate increase from current of 1.67% to 3%, valuation decrease from sgd35.93 to sgd20.

This is a simple illustration to show y stock mkts are so sensitive to rate hike. In reality the valuation calculation is more complicated n mkt also can perceive rate hike positively like showing more confident in a stronger economy.

Thank you :)

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Well done pal, I like the way u shared..this is the way for discussion..keep it up :)

famouspinky ( Date: 09-Sep-2016 19:46) Posted:

Dividends to shareholders come from net profit after tax.
When IR goes up, cost of business will also go up, bringing profits down thus dividend distributions also down.

willisow ( Date: 09-Sep-2016 19:20) Posted:

Subject: Interest Rate (IR)

Interest rate has a great impact on valuation becos It serve as a discount factor for future cashflow. Investors that invest in the capital mkt faces two options, bonds n equities. both bonds n equities are like weighting machine, when ir rises bond price fall n bond yield rises n drawing funds from equities in it, as a result share price will fall. That' s the reason y everyone is so concern about yellen speech.

There are different ways we can xplain how interest rate affect valuation n I will use a more simple way, dividend yield n bond yield to share with everyone. Those who are finance savy pls bear with me bcos I need to take care of those who are not trained in finance. Investment in equities besides capital gain, dividend is another form of income. Pension fund or institution fund are long term investors n dividend yield will continue to attract their investment during bad times. however they r also attracted by bond yield that will continue to give them the cashflow when times are bad.

We can extract the 10 years sg government bond yield from public info n currently it is at 1.67%. When we look at DBS, those who bought a sgd15 n below get a minimum dividend yield of 4% (0.6/15 x 100%) assuming the full year dividend is sgd0.60. Since dividend yield is much higher than bond yield, fund managers would choose to park their money in equities. They will only switch out to bonds when dbs dividend yield equalizes or below the bond yield thus DBS share price would have to increases to sgd35.93 (sgd0.6/1.67%).

If interest rate rises n resulted the rise in 10 years sg government bond yield to 2.5%, DBS share price would have to increase to sgd24 in order to have dividend yield of 2.5% as well (assume dividend paid remain unchanged). If the 10 years sg government bond yield rises to 3% then DBS share price would b sgd20 in order to produce the same dividend yield. From here we can see that as interest rate increase from current of 1.67% to 3%, valuation decrease from sgd35.93 to sgd20.

This is a simple illustration to show y stock mkts are so sensitive to rate hike. In reality the valuation calculation is more complicated n mkt also can perceive rate hike positively like showing more confident in a stronger economy.

Thank you :)

x 0

Thank you.

willisow ( Date: 09-Sep-2016 19:20) Posted:

Subject: Interest Rate (IR)

Interest rate has a great impact on valuation becos It serve as a discount factor for future cashflow. Investors that invest in the capital mkt faces two options, bonds n equities. both bonds n equities are like weighting machine, when ir rises bond price fall n bond yield rises n drawing funds from equities in it, as a result share price will fall. That' s the reason y everyone is so concern about yellen speech.

There are different ways we can xplain how interest rate affect valuation n I will use a more simple way, dividend yield n bond yield to share with everyone. Those who are finance savy pls bear with me bcos I need to take care of those who are not trained in finance. Investment in equities besides capital gain, dividend is another form of income. Pension fund or institution fund are long term investors n dividend yield will continue to attract their investment during bad times. however they r also attracted by bond yield that will continue to give them the cashflow when times are bad.

We can extract the 10 years sg government bond yield from public info n currently it is at 1.67%. When we look at DBS, those who bought a sgd15 n below get a minimum dividend yield of 4% (0.6/15 x 100%) assuming the full year dividend is sgd0.60. Since dividend yield is much higher than bond yield, fund managers would choose to park their money in equities. They will only switch out to bonds when dbs dividend yield equalizes or below the bond yield thus DBS share price would have to increases to sgd35.93 (sgd0.6/1.67%).

If interest rate rises n resulted the rise in 10 years sg government bond yield to 2.5%, DBS share price would have to increase to sgd24 in order to have dividend yield of 2.5% as well (assume dividend paid remain unchanged). If the 10 years sg government bond yield rises to 3% then DBS share price would b sgd20 in order to produce the same dividend yield. From here we can see that as interest rate increase from current of 1.67% to 3%, valuation decrease from sgd35.93 to sgd20.

This is a simple illustration to show y stock mkts are so sensitive to rate hike. In reality the valuation calculation is more complicated n mkt also can perceive rate hike positively like showing more confident in a stronger economy.

Thank you :)

x 0

Dividends to shareholders come from net profit after tax.
When IR goes up, cost of business will also go up, bringing profits down thus dividend distributions also down.

willisow ( Date: 09-Sep-2016 19:20) Posted:

Subject: Interest Rate (IR)

Interest rate has a great impact on valuation becos It serve as a discount factor for future cashflow. Investors that invest in the capital mkt faces two options, bonds n equities. both bonds n equities are like weighting machine, when ir rises bond price fall n bond yield rises n drawing funds from equities in it, as a result share price will fall. That' s the reason y everyone is so concern about yellen speech.

There are different ways we can xplain how interest rate affect valuation n I will use a more simple way, dividend yield n bond yield to share with everyone. Those who are finance savy pls bear with me bcos I need to take care of those who are not trained in finance. Investment in equities besides capital gain, dividend is another form of income. Pension fund or institution fund are long term investors n dividend yield will continue to attract their investment during bad times. however they r also attracted by bond yield that will continue to give them the cashflow when times are bad.

We can extract the 10 years sg government bond yield from public info n currently it is at 1.67%. When we look at DBS, those who bought a sgd15 n below get a minimum dividend yield of 4% (0.6/15 x 100%) assuming the full year dividend is sgd0.60. Since dividend yield is much higher than bond yield, fund managers would choose to park their money in equities. They will only switch out to bonds when dbs dividend yield equalizes or below the bond yield thus DBS share price would have to increases to sgd35.93 (sgd0.6/1.67%).

If interest rate rises n resulted the rise in 10 years sg government bond yield to 2.5%, DBS share price would have to increase to sgd24 in order to have dividend yield of 2.5% as well (assume dividend paid remain unchanged). If the 10 years sg government bond yield rises to 3% then DBS share price would b sgd20 in order to produce the same dividend yield. From here we can see that as interest rate increase from current of 1.67% to 3%, valuation decrease from sgd35.93 to sgd20.

This is a simple illustration to show y stock mkts are so sensitive to rate hike. In reality the valuation calculation is more complicated n mkt also can perceive rate hike positively like showing more confident in a stronger economy.

Thank you :)

x 0

Subject: Interest Rate (IR)

Interest rate has a great impact on valuation becos It serve as a discount factor for future cashflow. Investors that invest in the capital mkt faces two options, bonds n equities. both bonds n equities are like weighting machine, when ir rises bond price fall n bond yield rises n drawing funds from equities in it, as a result share price will fall. That' s the reason y everyone is so concern about yellen speech.

There are different ways we can xplain how interest rate affect valuation n I will use a more simple way, dividend yield n bond yield to share with everyone. Those who are finance savy pls bear with me bcos I need to take care of those who are not trained in finance. Investment in equities besides capital gain, dividend is another form of income. Pension fund or institution fund are long term investors n dividend yield will continue to attract their investment during bad times. however they r also attracted by bond yield that will continue to give them the cashflow when times are bad.

We can extract the 10 years sg government bond yield from public info n currently it is at 1.67%. When we look at DBS, those who bought a sgd15 n below get a minimum dividend yield of 4% (0.6/15 x 100%) assuming the full year dividend is sgd0.60. Since dividend yield is much higher than bond yield, fund managers would choose to park their money in equities. They will only switch out to bonds when dbs dividend yield equalizes or below the bond yield thus DBS share price would have to increases to sgd35.93 (sgd0.6/1.67%).

If interest rate rises n resulted the rise in 10 years sg government bond yield to 2.5%, DBS share price would have to increase to sgd24 in order to have dividend yield of 2.5% as well (assume dividend paid remain unchanged). If the 10 years sg government bond yield rises to 3% then DBS share price would b sgd20 in order to produce the same dividend yield. From here we can see that as interest rate increase from current of 1.67% to 3%, valuation decrease from sgd35.93 to sgd20.

This is a simple illustration to show y stock mkts are so sensitive to rate hike. In reality the valuation calculation is more complicated n mkt also can perceive rate hike positively like showing more confident in a stronger economy.

Thank you :)

x 0

Hey pal,

Thanks for your thumb up, a nice weekend to u :)

famouspinky ( Date: 09-Sep-2016 15:51) Posted:

👍

willisow ( Date: 09-Sep-2016 15:32) Posted:

Hi Sun,

Sand n Wynn are well known brand to the public, not that they are no good, it just that they don' t fall under my own selection criterias. Personally I preferred companies that are of zero or low debt n I will only invest in a company that is listed for at least past 10 years so that I can access to their past financial reports. Currently both Wynn n sand doesn' t fall under this two criterias but they r in my monitoring list for future consideration when I have full access to their past finances.

Im very conservative n Kia see :) haha...

Thank you :)

x 0

Alright pal,

In that case let join me, wear a sunglass at home n do cat walk while waiting for the DBS valuation to materialise.

Pretty woman walking down the street.............

:)

Hei123 ( Date: 09-Sep-2016 16:05) Posted:

Hi willisow

I' m fine. N I' m cool. I don' t have to try.

How cool can I be to tell the whole world that I only see 3 numbers in the FR? I tot that was most uncool!

Last time i bot the unit trusts because I have zero knowledge of investments and it was my friend who sold me. Now, well ETF is good, but I still prefer DBS, Singtel , Comfort n Singpost.

willisow ( Date: 09-Sep-2016 15:15) Posted:

Hello Hei123,

How r u? Glad to see your posting again :)

Well everyone made mistake just don' t repeat it will do. You r right, management fees from unit trust are hefty, it will be more fair n reasonable if they charge only performance fee (only pay them when they generate profit for investor). alternatively ETF may b a better option as compared to unit trust becos it' s charges are lower...

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DBS picking up before market close. Manipulated by big boys who pick up cheap by creating panic OR is it buybacks again.... Guess we will know later

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By the way Prudential is very, shall i say, cunning. After i paid up for home i upgraded my medical plans.The agent advised us to see another doctor to get the necessary checks but i insisted that i have nothing to hide and stuck with my own family GP of 20 years. My wife had a bout of gastric and was honest with them by revealing that she had seen doctor the in last three months before buying the policy. They came ack wiith an exclusion for any stomach problems. Just like in the story in the Straits Times afew days ago about a young girl. My wife' s was just mild gastric. Real crooks. Anyway i challenged it and then they came back with a clause that in 2017 they can review exclusion!! I have no choice but to stick with them. Too late to change.

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Yes 235036.22. But at one pont it was as low as 43K. Heart pain at that time. I was posted to Amsterdam for 5 years and never checked until i came back. Had a nice surprise when i saw that the amount went up to 118K. Was going to cashout but waited and checked monthly statements online. Finally cashed out paid up for my condo( own it outright now).

You should receive a yearly report which tells you what the fund buys and what rating it has. Mine after it recovered when up monthly especially during the subprime crisis. Actually if i had held on it would have been higher but i' m glad that i did not lose but gained.

Good Luck. Maybe if you see that it is not performing you should move it to another fund. Always check what is the expense ratio. I would not buy etf now especially when i believe we are on the cusps of another crisis. Stocks better. Swing trade now not buy for long term.

Save cash and wait for next market correction like my mentor did. He paid $73008.88 for 50k shares and sold them away and made 3.8 million.

Hei123 ( Date: 09-Sep-2016 16:22) Posted:

sun233, I bot from prudential, and I cannot remember which one . Thk you anyway.

You said you made 120%, so u got back $220k ?

sun233 ( Date: 09-Sep-2016 15:52) Posted:

Pink, first lesson here is never ever trust an insurance agent. Their pockets become heavier everytime they sell unit trusts. But at least you made some profit. I never use a single cent from my retirement accounts. After reading last Sunday Times i' m thinking of putting some cash into my children' s cpf account....still thinking. My unit trusts were very rather risky investment. 5 Arrows was the riskiest but i made the most from it. Asia pacific growth fund was more conservative. Luckily i doubled my initial investment but it took years.

Hei123, i cant really tell you if the day will come. It all depends on which units u bought. Like Pink said very hard to pour over reports. I prefer stocks.

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sun233, I bot from prudential, and I cannot remember which one . Thk you anyway.

You said you made 120%, so u got back $220k ?

sun233 ( Date: 09-Sep-2016 15:52) Posted:

Pink, first lesson here is never ever trust an insurance agent. Their pockets become heavier everytime they sell unit trusts. But at least you made some profit. I never use a single cent from my retirement accounts. After reading last Sunday Times i' m thinking of putting some cash into my children' s cpf account....still thinking. My unit trusts were very rather risky investment. 5 Arrows was the riskiest but i made the most from it. Asia pacific growth fund was more conservative. Luckily i doubled my initial investment but it took years.

Hei123, i cant really tell you if the day will come. It all depends on which units u bought. Like Pink said very hard to pour over reports. I prefer stocks.

Hei123 ( Date: 09-Sep-2016 15:35) Posted:

For me, Im still holding. I need to wait for a super super super bull to make a profit .

Do u all think the day will come? Or it' s over ..... Those time will never come back.

x 0

Thank you. I' m happy for your children! They have great dad!

sun233 ( Date: 09-Sep-2016 16:14) Posted:

Yup same here. But for my kids i think it is good. Will do so when i have spare. Have to give them a headstart in life so i can rest easy when my time comes to return home. The magic of compound interest will help them. Good Luck Pink.

pinkowl ( Date: 09-Sep-2016 16:00) Posted:

Agree. From then onwards, I never buy funds through insurance agent. Only through my own fingers. Am also thinking of topping up my own Special Account from Ordinary...but irreversible action is holding me back.

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sun233 do you know what is the agent' s renumeration after they sell a unit trust?

i was told when they sell an accident plan they pocket a few month' s premium every year. i wanted to join them when i heard that.

sun233 ( Date: 09-Sep-2016 15:52) Posted:

Pink, first lesson here is never ever trust an insurance agent. Their pockets become heavier everytime they sell unit trusts. But at least you made some profit. I never use a single cent from my retirement accounts. After reading last Sunday Times i' m thinking of putting some cash into my children' s cpf account....still thinking. My unit trusts were very rather risky investment. 5 Arrows was the riskiest but i made the most from it. Asia pacific growth fund was more conservative. Luckily i doubled my initial investment but it took years.

Hei123, i cant really tell you if the day will come. It all depends on which units u bought. Like Pink said very hard to pour over reports. I prefer stocks.

Hei123 ( Date: 09-Sep-2016 15:35) Posted:

For me, Im still holding. I need to wait for a super super super bull to make a profit .

Do u all think the day will come? Or it' s over ..... Those time will never come back.

x 0

Yup same here. But for my kids i think it is good. Will do so when i have spare. Have to give them a headstart in life so i can rest easy when my time comes to return home. The magic of compound interest will help them. Good Luck Pink.

pinkowl ( Date: 09-Sep-2016 16:00) Posted:

Agree. From then onwards, I never buy funds through insurance agent. Only through my own fingers. Am also thinking of topping up my own Special Account from Ordinary...but irreversible action is holding me back.

sun233 ( Date: 09-Sep-2016 15:52) Posted:

Pink, first lesson here is never ever trust an insurance agent. Their pockets become heavier everytime they sell unit trusts. But at least you made some profit. I never use a single cent from my retirement accounts. After reading last Sunday Times i' m thinking of putting some cash into my children' s cpf account....still thinking. My unit trusts were very rather risky investment. 5 Arrows was the riskiest but i made the most from it. Asia pacific growth fund was more conservative. Luckily i doubled my initial investment but it took years.

Hei123, i cant really tell you if the day will come. It all depends on which units u bought. Like Pink said very hard to pour over reports. I prefer stocks.

x 0

Hi willisow

I' m fine. N I' m cool. I don' t have to try.

How cool can I be to tell the whole world that I only see 3 numbers in the FR? I tot that was most uncool!

Last time i bot the unit trusts because I have zero knowledge of investments and it was my friend who sold me. Now, well ETF is good, but I still prefer DBS, Singtel , Comfort n Singpost.

willisow ( Date: 09-Sep-2016 15:15) Posted:

Hello Hei123,

How r u? Glad to see your posting again :)

Well everyone made mistake just don' t repeat it will do. You r right, management fees from unit trust are hefty, it will be more fair n reasonable if they charge only performance fee (only pay them when they generate profit for investor). alternatively ETF may b a better option as compared to unit trust becos it' s charges are lower...

Hei123 ( Date: 09-Sep-2016 15:03) Posted:

There' s another group of people who' s worst off than those who bot M1 at $4 .

Those who bot unit trusts are even worst, they have to pay management fee every year even though is badly managed and losing money. I am one of them.

M1 shareholders who bot at $4 at least know why they lost money. Those investors who buy some unit trusts and lehman bond don' t even know how their hard earned money was lost. M1 shareholders can just do averaging.

x 0

Agree. From then onwards, I never buy funds through insurance agent. Only through my own fingers. Am also thinking of topping up my own Special Account from Ordinary...but irreversible action is holding me back.

sun233 ( Date: 09-Sep-2016 15:52) Posted:

Pink, first lesson here is never ever trust an insurance agent. Their pockets become heavier everytime they sell unit trusts. But at least you made some profit. I never use a single cent from my retirement accounts. After reading last Sunday Times i' m thinking of putting some cash into my children' s cpf account....still thinking. My unit trusts were very rather risky investment. 5 Arrows was the riskiest but i made the most from it. Asia pacific growth fund was more conservative. Luckily i doubled my initial investment but it took years.

Hei123, i cant really tell you if the day will come. It all depends on which units u bought. Like Pink said very hard to pour over reports. I prefer stocks.

Hei123 ( Date: 09-Sep-2016 15:35) Posted:

For me, Im still holding. I need to wait for a super super super bull to make a profit .

Do u all think the day will come? Or it' s over ..... Those time will never come back.

x 0

I have tried reading the financial reports of u.s banks n I can' t understand it..their presentation is very different from Asia that are straightforward n details..not that there is something wrong to their report, it is just myself who can' t understand. Thus, I will avoid companies which I can' t understand their financial report or companies which I do not know how to value them to reduce the probability of failure.

Thank you :)

pnuklis ( Date: 09-Sep-2016 15:48) Posted:

If you want low debt then buy First Solar the Nasdeq stock at its lowest

x 0

Pink, first lesson here is never ever trust an insurance agent. Their pockets become heavier everytime they sell unit trusts. But at least you made some profit. I never use a single cent from my retirement accounts. After reading last Sunday Times i' m thinking of putting some cash into my children' s cpf account....still thinking. My unit trusts were very rather risky investment. 5 Arrows was the riskiest but i made the most from it. Asia pacific growth fund was more conservative. Luckily i doubled my initial investment but it took years.

Hei123, i cant really tell you if the day will come. It all depends on which units u bought. Like Pink said very hard to pour over reports. I prefer stocks.

Hei123 ( Date: 09-Sep-2016 15:35) Posted:

For me, Im still holding. I need to wait for a super super super bull to make a profit .

Do u all think the day will come? Or it' s over ..... Those time will never come back.

pinkowl ( Date: 09-Sep-2016 15:25) Posted:

Same here. Sold some after many years and managed to get off with a tiny profit. Left two more funds still under water....think since 2005 or so. Luckily, had bought them many years ago, and was playing very small. Like a few k only. I will never buy funds again....easier for me to read and understand why my shares rise or drop, then to figure out why the fund rise or drop. I dun even bother reading fund' s annual report.

In addition, I was previously advised by my insurance agent to use moeny in special account to buy funds. Only managed to take them out like after 6 or 7 years with tiny profit. As compared to interest that Special Account would have paid out yearly (risk-free some more at 4 - 5%), I was getting a lot less.

x 0

👍

willisow ( Date: 09-Sep-2016 15:32) Posted:

Hi Sun,

Sand n Wynn are well known brand to the public, not that they are no good, it just that they don' t fall under my own selection criterias. Personally I preferred companies that are of zero or low debt n I will only invest in a company that is listed for at least past 10 years so that I can access to their past financial reports. Currently both Wynn n sand doesn' t fall under this two criterias but they r in my monitoring list for future consideration when I have full access to their past finances.

Im very conservative n Kia see :) haha...

Thank you :)

sun233 ( Date: 09-Sep-2016 15:22) Posted:

Willisow you mentioned casinos but i' m curious as to why you have not mentioned the leader, Sands China and LVS.( both of whom are in my portfolio at the moment.)