x 0

6million ton worth 2.3billion dollar sugar at below 13 dollars, sold at 20plus. How much they earn? 1bil.

Will Wilmar record such profit in report? I don't think so since they buy back 512mio at around 18-19.

This is just part of their trading, they will just hide and keep it on their balance sheet to sustain future potential loss on other trading.

But from here we can know, Wilmar has a group of good Traders. This is not the first time Wilmar Traders prove their timely buying right price at right strategy. Many years ago, their Traders also assist the company went through a tough soy oil market which the soybean crush margin were very below the profit level margin which mean every Tons they crush they would lose money. However again, Wilmar traders timely buying soybean at right price make them not making huge loss when competitors in China did.

So just believe Wilmar management and their team, they are experienced Traders and know clearly how soft commodity market work.

junction ( Date: 12-Mar-2017 18:16) Posted:

Not very good margin, agreed. Outlook for commodities better in 2017?

FATABA ( Date: 12-Mar-2017 17:14) Posted:

" " In 2016, Wilmar&rsquo s sugar division posted a 33% year-over-year increase in revenue to $5.9 billion, &ldquo an outstanding set of results,&rdquo according to the company, partly because of higher sugar prices. It earned $125 million from the sugar business last year, for a profit margin of 2.1%.

Wilmar entered the sugar market through a $1.5 billion takeover of Australia&rsquo s largest sugar producer. It then hired Mr. Bohbot, who has a long career in sugar trading, from a rival and tasked him with expanding the sugar business internationally." " " " " " "

Spending 1.5B for a 2.1% margin ( and taking very large risk for huge sugar trade......just hope all his orders are calculated and well....100% OK ?
Anyway, dyodd. NOTE the nature of sugar future delivery .......

" " Physical settlements of futures trades, however, are rare. Exchange operator Intercontinental Exchange Inc. estimates that fewer than 0.5% of trades result in the actual delivery of commodities. The vast majority of futures contracts are unwound by traders before they expire because most firms want to avoid the hassle of transporting commodities to or from inconvenient locations. With sugar futures, buyers don&rsquo t know where in the world they will have to pick up the sweetener until after the contracts expire.

That hasn&rsquo t deterred Wilmar. Mr. Bohbot said the company has found it economical to purchase sugar in bulk using futures contracts, because the exchange&rsquo s rules require sellers to deliver the sugar on board buyers&rsquo ships, which facilitates international trading. In other commodity markets, such as grains or metals, the handover usually happens inside warehouses in locations that often might not be easily accessible." " " "

x 0

What can be changed for euro and yen further? Almost zero interest rate(U.S. Going to hike further) QE is going to evaluate again with high inflation now in Europe and economic in Europe is much better, what excuse for them to expand QE?

Is it so hard to guess next move? Through a logical way and look at chart formation, it is not difficult since chart formed by buy and sell activity, the level support at low for so long with some meaning on it, it is at bottom and funds are buying by thinking as what I think.

TechnicalTrader ( Date: 12-Mar-2017 08:32) Posted:

provided not major policy change..

Anyway, very new for me...

TechnicalTrader ( Date: 12-Mar-2017 08:27) Posted:

Agree long term trend is quite clear...

x 0

Currency is not sensitive at all if you don't play forex with 2% margin.

Instead buy or sell them according to long term week chart trend, you will find them they are obedient and never die stock but swinging with long term trend.

Euro month chart sideline with multiple bottom at 1.5(euro/sgd)

gbp week chart sideline with 3 times bottom at 1.7(gbp/sgd.)

Yen below month midbollinger line at 82 (sgd/yen).

I bought a lot yen when yen was at 94-97 (month sideline)and convert back when seeing sideline happen on week chart in 2016. Now touching month mid bollinger and I am waiting it for week chart sideline and will buy again.

earlybird14 ( Date: 12-Mar-2017 07:54) Posted:

Among them, euro is the one I am quite sure since I already converted money in bank to euro.

I won't say I predict them. I will only say I go for a high chance of something will happen through my own analysis and insist a buy at low sell at high or short sell at high and cover at low principal.

TechnicalTrader ( Date: 11-Mar-2017 22:41) Posted:

I will not attempt to predict too far ahead regarding currency rates... Currency is too sensitive to too many factors..

Too me it is too un-predictable...So I am not keep on it..

I am very simple minded.. Strong US economy, Feb rate hike, Briexit, france election and oil bearish all add strength to US$. and that explain everything... in the near future.

x 0

Among them, euro is the one I am quite sure since I already converted money in bank to euro.

I won't say I predict them. I will only say I go for a high chance of something will happen through my own analysis and insist a buy at low sell at high or short sell at high and cover at low principal.

TechnicalTrader ( Date: 11-Mar-2017 22:41) Posted:

I will not attempt to predict too far ahead regarding currency rates... Currency is too sensitive to too many factors..

Too me it is too un-predictable...So I am not keep on it..

I am very simple minded.. Strong US economy, Feb rate hike, Briexit, france election and oil bearish all add strength to US$. and that explain everything... in the near future.

earlybird14 ( Date: 11-Mar-2017 22:16) Posted:

So to conclude that

Euro is potentially go up due to end of Europe QE, inflation and economic data all positive and the only worry on France election the non anti euro candidate in lead on poll now. So outlook for euro is up in 2017.

Gbp down is mainly due to worrying of brexit from Europe in fact so far nobody can 100% say UK out from EU definitely will be recession. Especially GLb is at historically low, so once brexit is settled nicely and out from eu successfully but continue to do business and maintain good relations with EU, UK will just be another Switzerland and Norway who have good economic but doesn't stay with EU currently. So outlook of GBP in 2017 is positive.

Yen and S&P. Sell in May and go away will affect market in next few months till oct-nov. U.S. Market is overheated and moved into trump or republican ruling. As per history, republican always bring us economic from peak to bottom. So outlook of U.S. stock market after May is bearish, yen is always best place for hidding risk of economic downturn. So yen will appreciate after long time QE as well. So outlook of U.S. stock market is negative and yen is positive.

Again want to bet or not?😁 😁 😁

x 0

So to conclude that

Euro is potentially go up due to end of Europe QE, inflation and economic data all positive and the only worry on France election the non anti euro candidate in lead on poll now. So outlook for euro is up in 2017.

Gbp down is mainly due to worrying of brexit from Europe in fact so far nobody can 100% say UK out from EU definitely will be recession. Especially GLb is at historically low, so once brexit is settled nicely and out from eu successfully but continue to do business and maintain good relations with EU, UK will just be another Switzerland and Norway who have good economic but doesn't stay with EU currently. So outlook of GBP in 2017 is positive.

Yen and S&P. Sell in May and go away will affect market in next few months till oct-nov. U.S. Market is overheated and moved into trump or republican ruling. As per history, republican always bring us economic from peak to bottom. So outlook of U.S. stock market after May is bearish, yen is always best place for hidding risk of economic downturn. So yen will appreciate after long time QE as well. So outlook of U.S. stock market is negative and yen is positive.

Again want to bet or not?😁 😁 😁

earlybird14 ( Date: 11-Mar-2017 22:05) Posted:

Aiya I just shared my opinion only. I won't go against market de.

For oil bearish, since Ezion at 42 and oil stay too long at 50+, I had bearish on oil price already.

I took 1 article about us inventory and import to highlight the U.S. High inventories were a threat toward oil price and March import figure from opec will be indicator of outcome of production cut.

Why oil price drop so sharply since the oil inventories has been built up many weeks what make last week report so killing? An increase of oil import as compared to past 4 weeks.

You share those product just now, I share my own view to let you know that what potentially will happen few weeks later which will cause them to swing oppositely in fact.

TechnicalTrader ( Date: 11-Mar-2017 21:51) Posted:

friend

this is the data obtained from CFTC. Recalled that last sat /sunday the table I put up did mentioned that specultators on oil was less bullish..

Anyway, it is good to just take note of these data and check the movement to find out if there is any correlation or not..

x 0

Aiya I just shared my opinion only. I won't go against market de.

For oil bearish, since Ezion at 42 and oil stay too long at 50+, I had bearish on oil price already.

I took 1 article about us inventory and import to highlight the U.S. High inventories were a threat toward oil price and March import figure from opec will be indicator of outcome of production cut.

Why oil price drop so sharply since the oil inventories has been built up many weeks what make last week report so killing? An increase of oil import as compared to past 4 weeks.

You share those product just now, I share my own view to let you know that what potentially will happen few weeks later which will cause them to swing oppositely in fact.

TechnicalTrader ( Date: 11-Mar-2017 21:51) Posted:

friend

this is the data obtained from CFTC. Recalled that last sat /sunday the table I put up did mentioned that specultators on oil was less bullish..

Anyway, it is good to just take note of these data and check the movement to find out if there is any correlation or not..

earlybird14 ( Date: 11-Mar-2017 15:59) Posted:

In fact I hold opposite view for all.

Euro/usd just bounce up from 1.05 a critical level now 1.067. France election poll show the anti euro lady will lose the election and Europe will be out of QE soon and inflation and economic is better.

Gbp/usd, now at 1.215, at week low midbollinger line, last low bounce at around 1.205. So let's see if it will be triple bottom up. Also poll show that British is unhappy low GBP and if necessary for it to go down, Breexit is also going to complete to. Let's see if it will be broken at bottom. Waiting for a chance.

Yen, stock to Nikkei, we see how yen appreciate in last bear market, since us election it turn weak with Nikkei bull. Sell in May and go away, stock market move into correction yen will appreciate again.

S&p same, sell in May and go away, once market move into correction all stock market will be down

x 1

x 0

debate it exchange view subjected to individual opinion.

Wilmar bought sugar at 10-12 dollars in 2015 commodity low, peak few weeks ago at 20+. Now is at about 18.

Wilmar as a Australia biggest sugar producer and one of the world leader in sugar producer market, they can't tolerate sugar price at low level.

At the same time, they have strong distribution network in China and India.

But the sugar price is always decided by sugar trading market in U.S. And UK.

To punish those Traders who don't know how hard earn money coming from farmers by pressing price just due to their speculation of oversupply, the best way is to buy from them at low, stock it or distribute it through your own channel, when contract is expired month to month, the Traders have to find sugar for what they have sold in past few months, otherwise why those traders bought 22 plus from Wilmar?

Does it really make a lot of different in our sugar price on super market shelf price at 12 or 20plus? In fact no a lot of difference since the major cost is not the sugar material is the packaging, processing, distribution and middle business man and rental fee which price 80% of sugar price, less than 20% cost is for the farmers.

Why bully the farmers leh? In fact their money all are hard earned through day to day work, compare to those traders who decide price by pressing it.

So Wilmar who are producers, distributors now also no happy about sugar price volatile which affect their upstream to downstream business, so just buy at low sell at high to Traders and maintain sugar at average middle range to benefit their downstream and upstream business .(price sugar 11 is 11-34 in past 10 years)

FATABA ( Date: 11-Mar-2017 17:57) Posted:

Are u sure ? Or recall they make one bad qtr of lost then ....which really didnt spell out the reason.
anyway....to each his own opinion.
I dont plan to debate further.

earlybird14 ( Date: 11-Mar-2017 17:36) Posted:

"The tactic consists of buying sugar when prices are at multiyear lows, as in 2015, mopping up that year&rsquo s global oversupply.

In the rally that followed, sugar prices more than doubled and Wilmar sold its sugar it owned to other traders when the prices peaked. "

This tell why Wilmar do so again

Now sugar price fall back to low, they buy again what they sell at high and package it and sell to public with their supply chain.

This is the advantage they have to have another way of digesting the sugar as compared to other Traders who just gambling on price

x 0

"The tactic consists of buying sugar when prices are at multiyear lows, as in 2015, mopping up that year&rsquo s global oversupply.

In the rally that followed, sugar prices more than doubled and Wilmar sold its sugar it owned to other traders when the prices peaked. "

This tell why Wilmar do so again

Now sugar price fall back to low, they buy again what they sell at high and package it and sell to public with their supply chain.

This is the advantage they have to have another way of digesting the sugar as compared to other Traders who just gambling on price.

FATABA ( Date: 11-Mar-2017 16:32) Posted:

At least this is the 2nd time I know of tha Wilmar is betting heaviy on sugar. .....once was in Aus or something if I recall.
No one....NO one is 100% sure that this bet is correct. Wilmar is taking large risk it seem or another qtr of lost cld see it fall back to 3.30 and below.
Wonder why they want to take this risk ? ( or hopefully its only this division ) .

hapygolucke ( Date: 11-Mar-2017 12:54) Posted:

Singapore trader stocking 3,000 swimming pools of sugar!

March 8, 2017

A Singapore-based company has taken over as the world&rsquo s biggest sugar trader and is influencing the volatile commodity market with its unusual tactics.

The company, Wilmar International Ltd is scooping up sugar across the globe, only to hold the stocks seemingly at the right moment and to sell it when prices soar on the global market.

Wall Street Journal called the company a new power in the business, adding that it is literally filling 3000 swimming pools worth of storage facilities for the sugar it is frantically buying on the market.

The tactic has caused industry players to turn their heads and to look at how Wilmar is turning a risky business into a profitable one.

The Journal said this tactic has created confusion in one of the world&rsquo s most volatile commodity markets.

The agribusiness has shareholders such as the family of Malaysian billionaire Robert Kuok and Chicago-based Archer Daniels Midland Co and was founded 26 years ago.

It is one of the world&rsquo s largest palm-oil producers but a relative newcomer in the sugar business.

The company has bought more than 6 million tons of sugar in this manner since 2015, enough to fill roughly 3,000 Olympic-size swimming pools at a cost of some $2.3 billion.

Last week, Wilmar agreed to buy $512 million in raw sugar at the expiration of a popular futures contract on the ICE Futures U.S. exchange.

The tactic consists of buying sugar when prices are at multiyear lows, as in 2015, mopping up that year&rsquo s global oversupply.

In the rally that followed, sugar prices more than doubled and Wilmar sold its sugar it owned to other traders when the prices peaked.

The company&rsquo s size and scale, however, are sowing concerns among some traders that it could control a large amount of the world&rsquo s tradable sugar and influence prices, said WSJ.

Wilmar has found it economical to purchase sugar in bulk using futures contracts because the exchange&rsquo s rules require sellers to deliver the sugar on board buyers&rsquo ships, which facilitates international trading.

In 2016, Wilmar&rsquo s sugar division posted a 33% year-over-year increase in revenue to $5.9 billion, &ldquo an outstanding set of results,&rdquo according to the company, partly because of higher sugar prices.

It earned $125 million from the sugar business last year, for a profit margin of 2.1%.

Wilmar entered the sugar market through a $1.5 billion takeover of Australia&rsquo s largest sugar producer.

x 0

In fact I hold opposite view for all.

Euro/usd just bounce up from 1.05 a critical level now 1.067. France election poll show the anti euro lady will lose the election and Europe will be out of QE soon and inflation and economic is better.

Gbp/usd, now at 1.215, at week low midbollinger line, last low bounce at around 1.205. So let's see if it will be triple bottom up. Also poll show that British is unhappy low GBP and if necessary for it to go down, Breexit is also going to complete to. Let's see if it will be broken at bottom. Waiting for a chance.

Yen, stock to Nikkei, we see how yen appreciate in last bear market, since us election it turn weak with Nikkei bull. Sell in May and go away, stock market move into correction yen will appreciate again.

S&p same, sell in May and go away, once market move into correction all stock market will be down.

TechnicalTrader ( Date: 11-Mar-2017 14:24) Posted:

CFTC: Speculators More Bearish on Euro, Sterling, Japanese Yen More Bullish on S& P 500

for your reference

x 0

The reversal uptrend is getting clearer with non anti EU candidate leading the France election poll.

Once he win the election to remove worrying of France exit pool, euro will be up more.

A repeat of usd out from QE and appreciate is going to repeat on euro.

x 0

No weak at all. Seem like I can't get what I want for today. Time to sleep

TechnicalTrader ( Date: 11-Mar-2017 00:17) Posted:

Oh as we chat, oil drop more, US indexes in trouble....

x 0

They live in another world. Their job is enjoying life, always got capable people work for them.

TechnicalTrader ( Date: 11-Mar-2017 00:11) Posted:

maybe you are right... If i am rich I also want to buy properties everywhere in the world..

earlybird14 ( Date: 10-Mar-2017 23:47) Posted:

Does they really buy at bear property market? No really, they just too cash rich want to buy something, so long as gov don't give too much restrictions to them they will come and buy.

They are not really investment, just their business generate too much cash and don't know how to spend

x 0

no worry. Singapore education still supported by South East Asia. They come here since primary school, so long as they Graduate from jc, their parents will send them to oversea.

Today China is not longer 10 years ago China. They know what happen here but some till come here with no choice

TechnicalTrader ( Date: 10-Mar-2017 23:58) Posted:

hi mr EB

After so many years of being " conned" by Singapore' s Educational Hub policy, China ppl realized that their children cannot survey in Singapore Eductional system... The bloom has long become history...

Many of those come for edustion, spent their " long-term vocations" learn nothing except smoking and gang-fighting. In the end, have to go back China (Those outstanding china students are those receiving scholarships from singapore gov and studying in the proper schools. They are normally not from rich families) So more and more China ppl know that their children cannot survive in the system here. The number is decreasing fast.

Those super rich also will not mind all those measures. Property in 1st tier provinces in China have been blooming in their last few years. prices can be double in months...So why put money in singapore property...

earlybird14 ( Date: 10-Mar-2017 23:39) Posted:

as what I know, super rich foreigners buy property with cash, so they have no pressure from installment. Due to high expenses on Reno, they basically don't want to rent out the property.

They just come here stay for months for holiday or let their children who study here to stay.

Why they don't buy now, may be Bei song to pay the 10% stamp duty, just Bei song to pay more to gov, rich are like that generous to themselves but selfish or stingy to others, and very calculative to pay something extra which is not for the property.

Those rich who contribute to society is last generation

x 0

Does they really buy at bear property market? No really, they just too cash rich want to buy something, so long as gov don't give too much restrictions to them they will come and buy.

They are not really investment, just their business generate too much cash and don't know how to spend.

earlybird14 ( Date: 10-Mar-2017 23:39) Posted:

as what I know, super rich foreigners buy property with cash, so they have no pressure from installment. Due to high expenses on Reno, they basically don't want to rent out the property.

They just come here stay for months for holiday or let their children who study here to stay.

Why they don't buy now, may be Bei song to pay the 10% stamp duty, just Bei song to pay more to gov, rich are like that generous to themselves but selfish or stingy to others, and very calculative to pay something extra which is not for the property.

Those rich who contribute to society is last generation.

TechnicalTrader ( Date: 10-Mar-2017 23:32) Posted:

rental income is a major consideration for buying a second/third property

Foreign buyers also... if there returns are low, who want to buy?

hard to take, yes, got choice, don' t buy now..

x 0

First round correction will be hit next week.

Nasdaq day chart hit mid bollinger last night bounce up just now hit upper, short add.

Dow even worse bounce up from day chart midbollinger touch 4hr upper gonna kick down.

If both day mid bollinger break, it will hit lower midbollinger next week to complete first round correction.

x 0

as what I know, super rich foreigners buy property with cash, so they have no pressure from installment. Due to high expenses on Reno, they basically don't want to rent out the property.

They just come here stay for months for holiday or let their children who study here to stay.

Why they don't buy now, may be Bei song to pay the 10% stamp duty, just Bei song to pay more to gov, rich are like that generous to themselves but selfish or stingy to others, and very calculative to pay something extra which is not for the property.

Those rich who contribute to society is last generation.

TechnicalTrader ( Date: 10-Mar-2017 23:32) Posted:

rental income is a major consideration for buying a second/third property

Foreign buyers also... if there returns are low, who want to buy?

hard to take, yes, got choice, don' t buy now..

SgYuan ( Date: 10-Mar-2017 23:27) Posted:

Not many want to release without profit, as they can hold.
Renting is all about price now.
Example $4000 become $2800, hard to take, but no choice.
I havent see a state of no tenant yet.

x 0

Cut gov meat to remove 2nd property extra buyer and forefinger stamp duty, sales immediately boost 2-3 times since gov still got a lot cash rich uncle and aunty.

earlybird14 ( Date: 10-Mar-2017 18:51) Posted:

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/seller-s-stamp-duties-cut-as-govt-eases-some-property-cooling/3584562.html

😁 😁 😁 non of them will affect much.

In fact the most effective one is extra buyers stamp duty for 2nd property and foreigner extra stamp duty. it will make property 7-10% cheaper. But this is like cutting gov meat since they have enjoyed such luxury income since implementation.

MOP or sellers extra stamp duty? Sellers is like mountain there waiting to sell their property, 3-4years? 2013 peak of property price till now already 3-4 years, all pass their MOP, even gov remove it also can't help the market, this cooling measurement only useful in super hot market to avoid sub sales for property flipping few hands in 1 year.

TDSR? No money already talk about TDSR for what.

TechnicalTrader ( Date: 10-Mar-2017 14:44) Posted:

I think there will have more transactions.

housing agents have more biz...

banking loans increase...

second hand property price drop... buyers have more choice...

property development have affected negatively

My logic any problem?

x 0

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/seller-s-stamp-duties-cut-as-govt-eases-some-property-cooling/3584562.html

😁 😁 😁 non of them will affect much.

In fact the most effective one is extra buyers stamp duty for 2nd property and foreigner extra stamp duty. it will make property 7-10% cheaper. But this is like cutting gov meat since they have enjoyed such luxury income since implementation.

MOP or sellers extra stamp duty? Sellers is like mountain there waiting to sell their property, 3-4years? 2013 peak of property price till now already 3-4 years, all pass their MOP, even gov remove it also can't help the market, this cooling measurement only useful in super hot market to avoid sub sales for property flipping few hands in 1 year.

TDSR? No money already talk about TDSR for what.

TechnicalTrader ( Date: 10-Mar-2017 14:44) Posted:

I think there will have more transactions.

housing agents have more biz...

banking loans increase...

second hand property price drop... buyers have more choice...

property development have affected negatively

My logic any problem?

TechnicalTrader ( Date: 10-Mar-2017 14:34) Posted:

Property measure ease?

Look more like it is encouraging more sellers.

Am I right to suggest that the first impact should be suddenly the market will be flooded with second hand property...

How property can benefit from it?

Comment please

x 0

Got firm firm minimum 6.7% dividend( 100% earning payment, not the white elephant Asia pay TV 150-200% earning payment, even Ascendas REITs also 110% payment for 6.1% only max)

halleluyah ( Date: 10-Mar-2017 15:44) Posted:

Yup...need to hold...up trend chart...

earlybird14 ( Date: 10-Mar-2017 15:37) Posted:

No action today.😁 😁 😁

Month chart macd turn green. Must hold long long. How it work. Look at what price sembmarine and Keppel in Oct to nov 2016? This is when both of them turn green.

So be patient to wait, a long one, clear short term resistance 1 after 1, then it will go to a price you will not regret to hold for few months

x 0

No action today.😁 😁 😁

Month chart macd turn green. Must hold long long. How it work. Look at what price sembmarine and Keppel in Oct to nov 2016? This is when both of them turn green.

So be patient to wait, a long one, clear short term resistance 1 after 1, then it will go to a price you will not regret to hold for few months.

seanpent ( Date: 10-Mar-2017 15:09) Posted:

1 pip per day is very good ..... that' s 5 pips in 5 trading sessions .....

moron101 ( Date: 09-Mar-2017 13:32) Posted:

Average target price is 0.45 USD. Maintain BUY by DBS and OCBC..