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Brokers' take: UOBKH raises Sembmarine target on order wins, lower corporate risk

THU, APR 14, 2022 - 4:30 PM

VIVIENNE TAYvtay@sph.com.sg @VivienneTayBT

The higher target price of S$0.13 is pegged to the research team' s estimated aggregated book value per share for 2022 and 2023.

UOB Kay Hian (UOBKH) on Thursday (Apr 14) raised its target price on Sembcorp Marine (Sembmarine) Sembcorp Marine : S51 +3.45% to S$0.13 from S$0.11, while maintaining its " buy" call on the marine and offshore group.

The research team views mainboard-listed Sembmarine as a " turnaround story" with its recent large order win, indicating possible positives when it comes to new order wins, especially when it comes to the renewables sector.

On Mar 23, Sembmarine said it obtained a contract to construct a wind turbine installation vessel. UOBKH conservatively estimates the undisclosed contract value to be around S$650 million.

The higher target price of S$0.13 is pegged to the research team' s estimated aggregated book value per share for 2022 and 2023. It also represents a potential upside of 9.2 per cent from the counter' s last trading price of S$0.119 as at 3.54 pm on Thursday.

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14-Apr-2022 12:06

Seatrium / Sembmarine_Green is the new gold_a better future

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👍 👍

ICXGOLD ( Date: 14-Apr-2022 11:51) Posted:

Oops around 260M not 240M

ICXGOLD ( Date: 14-Apr-2022 11:50) Posted:

I think we will close closer to 0.124

We have 100M new Shareholders @ 0.122
100M new Shareholders @ 0.123
And 70M New Shareholders @ 0.124

So these 240M should help to support the price.
Would love to see volumes go up through till close but price stay stable here to get out the profit takers who were waiting for TERP.

Short covering now feel like a bonus, with so much starting to going favour of SCM

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14-Apr-2022 11:18

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The Shortist net short position is likely below 500 million now. Unless the merger terms has been finalised and leaked, I expect it to close slightly below 12 today..

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14-Apr-2022 11:09

Seatrium / Sembmarine_Green is the new gold_a better future

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Hahaha...hey bro, where is your next stop?

blackpearl ( Date: 14-Apr-2022 10:34) Posted:

First Stop

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14-Apr-2022 09:37

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My sentiments exactly. 👍 😂 😂

ICXGOLD ( Date: 14-Apr-2022 09:33) Posted:

12 cent done time for the next dose. We should test 0.124 today and hopefully close around there. This gives the Management some right to face investors.

From here on we could see 0.136 and possibly 0.16x Next week, A positive business update before Merger could accelerate the move towards 0.20 before Month end.

Technically Mid-30' s is not too far fetched if these events line up:
* A profitable Q1 with divisends
* Win of Brazil contract
* Win of Dorado
* Favourable Merger and swap ratio.

SCM remains a STRONG BUY in a U shaped recovery at the START of a Bull run. The upside if far stronger than the downside.

ICXGOLD ( Date: 13-Apr-2022 11:48) Posted:

As mentioned yesterday 5% up today. We just need to now hold 11.5 cents today and form a base here, the volume need to go up to atleast 400M today to create a decent support and we could be at 12 before close tomorrow.

Once again DO NOT SELL, we have atleast 300M of short covering remaining and the Q1 Business update pending. Forget Merger these two alone can take us between 16 ans 20 cent

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13-Apr-2022 20:28

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The Napant Antarctic research vessel is mid size, estimated value about S$500 mil. The large size one could cost over a billion... but the contract won by Sembmarine is to builf a mid size one for the Brazilian navy..

ICXGOLD ( Date: 13-Apr-2022 20:09) Posted:

Any Idea whats Brazil 2022 is worth ? If we hosting this game. Its a perfect storm

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13-Apr-2022 16:25

Seatrium / Sembmarine_Green is the new gold_a better future

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hahaha...LOL....this humble forumer is commenting again, giving his humble opinion and callling everyone else jokers.

weekaykee ( Date: 13-Apr-2022 16:21) Posted:

500m profit this year??
These jokers have created a fantasyland.

PHInsider63 ( Date: 13-Apr-2022 16:13) Posted:

Provision for 2022 booked in 2021= $400 to 500m according to Better

Is SM able to make another 500 m net profit this year?

If so, total will be $1b
At 0.20, it will be 6.4 times Pe.
This green industry is hot now. Market May give a higher PE such as 10 times and if so it will be 0.31
At 0.124, the PE is 4 times
My pov
I will be holding my fort till month end and see what the ratio will be and at what terms

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13-Apr-2022 16:11

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my view is fully aligned to yours.

Although i estimate the remaining short covering to be around 600-800 million shares.

ICXGOLD ( Date: 13-Apr-2022 11:48) Posted:

ICXGOLD ( Date: 12-Apr-2022 12:44) Posted:

My personal view, by Friday this week we will be at 12 cents. As charts are turning positive and there still are open shorts to cover, the business update would help to continue upward to 16c.

If there was NO merger & NO Newco this would have been the start of a bull run for SCM. However, the Merger and Newco news and the deal will now decide the price.

As long as this news is not yet out, we will continue upwards and it should not be a surprise if we touch 20c by month end ( Subject to an announcement of a profitable Q1 and dividends )

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13-Apr-2022 14:48

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The 3 Korean offshore heavy weights Samsung Heavy, Hyundai Heavy and DSME, all up about 6% today.

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13-Apr-2022 14:22

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Whom I vote the most educated welder on this forum. 🤠

Chagataii ( Date: 13-Apr-2022 14:15) Posted:

I am Welder 🧑 ‍ 🏭

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13-Apr-2022 13:25

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Strange.....why is he talking to himself?

weekaykee ( Date: 13-Apr-2022 13:21) Posted:

Very well said.

There are too many kiddos in this thread. Mostly undergraduates i believe. I am way past getting offended with their personal attacks and ridicule and actually come into this thread to get amused. Once in a while i tickle them and they actually take the bait. Sign of immaturity. I also use them as examples to teach my kids on what they should not turn out to be when investing.

limhokok ( Date: 13-Apr-2022 13:10) Posted:

For some strange reasons, this thread is unusually caustic. Some of the comments are flagrantly vile and exhibits childish connotations repeatedly, yet those members are not banned from the forum, and are allowed to continue postings. Incidentally, I am not a naysayer or negativist commonly labelled in this forum.

My learned friend named Mr Ari Shankar had made his very first one and only single harmless posting on 9 April 2022 at 14:25 in the Sembmarine Demerged forum and he was immediately banned from that forum just barely hours after his posting at 14:25 was made. Here is his posting as follows:

A savvy investor would never ever need to average down the price of the stock they had bought. Having purchased 50 lots for $10,000.00 (20 cents ea), and then purchased another 950 lots for $77,900.00 (8.2 cents ea), in order to average the price down to 8.79 cents ea is mind boggling indeed. What is the probability of any investor with a $10K stake on a stock having the ability to load up another $77.9K for the same stock? Is this savvy or is it reckless? There is a subtle difference between an investor and a punter. Your friend is now enjoying a nice gain based on the 10.4 cents closing yesterday. I am sure there are many in this forum making similar profits like your friend. Only losers need to justify unendingly.

After Ari Shankar was banned, another forum member posted at 22:17 on 9 April 2022 mocking Ari for having appeared suddenly and then leave after making savvy comments. For the record, Ari did not leave. He was abruptly banned from this thread. I understand further from Ari, there were other forum members being blatantly attacked and ridiculed, only after they had been banned from this thread.

Ari and I manages others wealth and none of our clients openly boast about the 7 and 8 digits profits they made. In a faceless environment, it is very easy to distinguish who are the have and have not, from the way they write.

One forum member had humbly said his net worth had recently crossed into 8 figures in his posting on 1 April 2022 at 21:38 in this forum (Sembmarine Green), and barely an hour half later at 23:03, he was scoffed at by the author of this forum: Hahaha you meant you JUST crossed 8 figures that is a bit slow. Again, it takes no intelligence to establish who is not there yet and is merely a narcissist.

As a fund manager, I cannot help but to comment that none of the information posted on SM in both the Sembmarine Green and this forum are privileged information that are not publicly available or were information that were ahead of time when they were posted in both forums.

Some members had brazenly challenged other members to provide substantiations for their comments. As no member is managing the funds of the other, neither party needs to provide any substantiation for their comments. Substantiation is a paid service in the business world.

So whatever forecast by any member should be viewed as their exclusive right to comment and is not mandatory for anyone to accept or reject. Neither is making a positive or a negative comment a contingent for acceptance as a member in the forum.

Winning and losing on a stock is a natural thing. In order to have winners, there must be losers, and vice-versa. There is no need for ridicules and banning of members.

I wonder if I will also be banned for publishing this unbiased non-contemptuous writing, and if I do get banned just like Ari, I hope other members will not think that I had ran away, like they thought the other banned members purportedly had, when as a matter of fact, none of them had ran away. They were utterly deprived of any decent opportunity to respond to all the vociferous attacks that came about only after they had been banned.

I like to take this opportunity to wish everyone well and prosperous in all their investments

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13-Apr-2022 13:24

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I hate to say this....but same here for me. Although i don' t think need 2 more years...

Chagataii ( Date: 13-Apr-2022 13:05) Posted:

Yup about 13c I can break even. I will Not break even after all these years of holding. 20c will be reasonable for all the opportunity costs withered away. I will wait I will keep in Cold Storage for 2 More years MUST be above 20c which it will be then off to Bali

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12-Apr-2022 16:57

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I vote Chag Tai Tai as the most educated welder on this forum. Would not be surprised if he has got a doctorate or PHD (not Permanent Head Damage but the real thing).

Chagataii ( Date: 12-Apr-2022 12:48) Posted:

You my friend are a Genius. Order book of combined entity will be $6 billion plus. SM poised to win $2 billion more contracts this year certainly more in the pipeline. Total combined order book value at 8% margins execution timeline for project completion is 3 yrs average. Factor in accounts receivables from IOU?s about $2 billion Who say 20c is A Dream

ICXGOLD ( Date: 12-Apr-2022 12:44) Posted:

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12-Apr-2022 16:52

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My take is that the Shortist from wall street has covered about 40-50% of his original massive 2 billion shares short position. Another 50% or so to go.

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08-Apr-2022 14:33

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I vote Tai Tai the smartest and most educated in this forum. I think crude oil may be trading around $70 or slightly below at the end of the year, then rebound again next year.

Chagataii ( Date: 31-Mar-2022 11:46) Posted:

Chang Tai Tai very focused on making a good investment decision and retire to Bali permanently. Buy a great company decimated by economic and pandemic black swans revived by Ah Gong and our RI tripled down to accumulate million more shares due to recent geopolitical events oil price hikes at $80 stable in Ling run contract wins pouring in for SM merger great order book $$.. in 2-3 years Chag Tai Tai will be a permanent resident at Lombok Island in the Sun drinking beers and eating sunshine at the beach 🏖 So HUAT HUAT Sembmarine 50 cents to $1

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07-Apr-2022 22:52

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Today' s AGM clarification is an attempt to lay all SCM ' s competitive advantages in the open. The piece is likely written by Temasek' s negotiator to put down KC' s snake oil salesman Loh Chin Hua, who is obviously bargaining for a better exchange ratio and more cash.

First, it is mentioned that renewable constituted 30% of total revenue in 2021 and 43% of group net order book. In today' s environment, the greener the higher the perceived value of the entity.

Second, they listed some of SCM' s trophy projects. Hornsea 2 and Sofia Offshore windfarm platforms that SCM are constructing are much bigger and more technologically advanced than those done by KOM.

Third, Shell Whale FPU is a trophy project that ONLY SCM can complete because of Its gaint Goliath Crane. Also, appointed by an oil major for a start to finish FPU project is a trophy " main contractor" type of job. All KOM projects are subcontractor type of jobs. For example, Exxon engage SBM offshore (main contractor) to build a FPSO who then use KOM as a subcontractor to do part of project (topside integration).

Fourth, with SCM' s 100% owned LMG Marin (leading nautical architect in the world), SCM is able to execute an design and construction (start to finish) type job for all specialised marine vessel. That&rsquo s also the reason they can win the contract for the NapAnt Antarctic support vessel, another trophy project that build on LMG Marin&rsquo s expertise in designing the award winning Polar expedition cruise ship in 2020.

Fifth, previously KOM was able to boost that they are constructing a Jones Act WTIV. Now, SCM is saying that we are building a bigger and more technological advanced WTIV than KOM for Maersk (the equivalent of an oil major in the offshore support industry. Not all clients are created equal).

Sixth, SCM is boosting that they are likely to secure the Dorado FPSO contract, another trophy start to finish, main contractor type job.

Seventh, SCM have secured/ purchased a lot more green technology retrofit solutions while KOM has likely stopped investment in these areas as they are about to be sold or discarded. Why would KC throw more cash into something they are going to sell soon?

Eight, SCM&rsquo s repair unit is the world leader in the repair and upgrade of LNG carriers (a lot more biz coming given the Ukraine situation) and cruise vessels (a lot more biz coming as the cruise industry is definitely making a strong come back this year)

I could not have written a better piece if I am Temasek appointed negotiator whom I am sure is also following this forum.

better ( Date: 07-Apr-2022 19:21) Posted:

Today' s AGM clarification is likely more related to the merger negotiation than answering AGM questions. I would explain the implications later.

Effectively, it has always been an acquisition. However, to give " respect" to the acquired entity if it is sizable, the corporate world usually call it merger.

LawRenceW ( Date: 07-Apr-2022 18:58) Posted:

Very positive outlook for SembMarine!

Some key projects under execution by the Group include:

1. Offshore hook-up and commissioning works for two substation topsides for Ø rsted' s 1.4GW Hornsea 2 Offshore Wind Farm
2. Design, construction, installation and commissioning of the offshore converter platform for RWE Renewables' Sofia Offshore Wind Farm
3. Construction and integration of hull, topsides and living quarters for the newbuild semi-submersible Floating Production Unit (" FPU" ) contracted by Shell for the Whale development project and
4. Design and construction of the remaining two battery-powered Ropax ferries for Norled

Going forward, a key priority is to replenish the Group& rsquo s order book. The Group is committed to actively convert its pipeline of orders into firm contracts on a timely basis.

At end March 2022, Sembcorp Marine secured a contract from Maersk Supply Service for the construction of a Wind Turbine Installation Vessel (" WTIV" ) in full compliance to Jones Act. Based on the Group' s in-house design in collaboration with the customer, the WTIV is capable of operating at a high level of efficiency and to handle the next generation of larger wind turbines.

The Group has commenced work on the Front-end Engineering Design contract awarded by Altera in September 2021 for the development of a Floating Production Storage and Offloading (" FPSO" ) facility for the Dorado FPSO project. The Group hopes to secure the engineering, procurement and construction contract for this project.

Negotiations are also in progress with the Brazilian Navy on the construction of the Antarctic Support Vessel &ldquo NapAnt&rdquo , which is part of the Brazil Navy Research Vessel Project, with a contract award expected in the first half of 2022.

The Group continues to actively pursue multiple projects and tender opportunities in the Renewable Energy and Gas Solutions segment, as well as the Process Solutions segment, including projects relating FPSO vessels, Floating Storage Offloading vessels and FPUs.

The Group&rsquo s Repairs & Upgrades business has also secured advanced orders for the repair and upgrade of LNG carriers and cruise vessels. The Group is also working on active enquiries for offshore vessels upgrading projects.

In addition, the Group has continued to secure green technology retrofit solutions, including projects relating to ballast water management system and scrubber installations, and identified opportunities in sustainable repairs and upgrading, such as air lubrication systems and ammonia-based fuel solutions.

Underpinned by its operational and technology bench strengths, the Group is well- placed to support the global energy needs, premised on a low-carbon footprint with a balanced portfolio across offshore, marine and energy product solutions.

The Group will continue to further diversify its business portfolio and extend into new areas of renewable energy, electrification, gas value chain, ocean living, as well as carbon capture and storage solutions.

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07-Apr-2022 20:16

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You are offshore, JOBLESS and aligned with the Star.

Chagataii ( Date: 07-Apr-2022 20:11) Posted:

I am welder

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07-Apr-2022 19:21

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LawRenceW ( Date: 07-Apr-2022 18:58) Posted:

Very positive outlook for SembMarine!

Some key projects under execution by the Group include:

1. Offshore hook-up and commissioning works for two substation topsides for Ø rsted' s 1.4GW Hornsea 2 Offshore Wind Farm
2. Design, construction, installation and commissioning of the offshore converter platform for RWE Renewables' Sofia Offshore Wind Farm
3. Construction and integration of hull, topsides and living quarters for the newbuild semi-submersible Floating Production Unit (" FPU" ) contracted by Shell for the Whale development project and
4. Design and construction of the remaining two battery-powered Ropax ferries for Norled

Going forward, a key priority is to replenish the Group& rsquo s order book. The Group is committed to actively convert its pipeline of orders into firm contracts on a timely basis.

At end March 2022, Sembcorp Marine secured a contract from Maersk Supply Service for the construction of a Wind Turbine Installation Vessel (" WTIV" ) in full compliance to Jones Act. Based on the Group' s in-house design in collaboration with the customer, the WTIV is capable of operating at a high level of efficiency and to handle the next generation of larger wind turbines.

The Group has commenced work on the Front-end Engineering Design contract awarded by Altera in September 2021 for the development of a Floating Production Storage and Offloading (" FPSO" ) facility for the Dorado FPSO project. The Group hopes to secure the engineering, procurement and construction contract for this project.

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04-Apr-2022 23:36

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Borr Drilling Adds 6.9 Years to Contract Backlog as Five Jack-Up Rigs Secure Deals

OEDigital April 4, 2022

Illustration only - Credit: xmentoys/AdobeStock

Shallow water drilling company Borr Drilling has won new contracts and extensions for five of its premium jack-up drilling rigs.

" These awards increase the company' s backlog by approximately 2,530 days [around 6.9 years], excluding optional periods," Borr Drilling said, without going into details on the value of the contracts.

The premium jack-up drilling rig " Gunnlod" has secured a contract with an undisclosed operator in Southeast Asia. This contract is expected to start in direct continuation of its current contract. The work will cover 11 wells with an anticipated duration of 186 days plus options.

The premium jack-up drilling rig " Mist" had options exercised by PTTEP for a total duration of approximately 3.5 months and it is now expected to remain contracted with PTTEP until Q4 2022.

The premium jack-up drilling rig " Saga" has secured a contract with an undisclosed operator in Southeast Asia. This contract will start in direct continuation of its current contract and the work will cover a 1-well program with an anticipated duration of 45 days, Borr Drilling said.

Additionally, Borr Drilling said it had won long-term contracts in the Middle East with an undisclosed operator for two of its premium jack-up drilling rigs. The contracts have a firm duration of 3 years plus options each and are expected to begin in the second half of 2022.

These awards increase the company' s contracted fleet to 20 rigs out of a total of 23 delivered rigs, Borr Drilling said.

" Borr Drilling remains in constructive discussions with its lenders (SCM, KOM) in relation to the deferral or refinancing of its debt maturing in 2023 and expects such discussions to be successfully concluded on or before June 30th, 2022," the company added.

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04-Apr-2022 22:50

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Strong east wind. Borr Drilling, SCM' s biggest debtor, is up another 15% on the opening bell...

Borr Drilling Limited (BORR)

NYSE - Nasdaq Real Time Price. Currency in USD

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4.6800+0.6300 (+15.5555%)

As of 10:46AM EDT. Market open.

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